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  • TheWaterboy wrote: View Post
    It's been a while since this go-to reference thread has been updated. So I am going to write out what I understand about our current financial position and ask for corrections (then edit here for clarity).

    1. While we are under the hard cap this year, we will not be under the hard cap next year unless we make a move which triggers it again.
    2. After the Caboclo trade, we can bring on a player on the vet minimum without triggering the luxury tax.
    3. We have a trade exception from the Carroll trade which we will have just under two weeks to use at the start of July.
    4. Fred Van Vleet is a restricted free agent, meaning we can match offer sheets for him if the price is right.
    5. We will be able to use the mid-level exception next year.
    6. Despite the flexibility we have due to the combination of items 3, 4, and 5, taking full advantage of even two of these opportunities will be EXPENSIVE. Unless there is a pretty major opportunity that presents itself to us, it is unlikely we take advantage of more than one of these options without making a trade to clear salary (if that's even possible in the current salary environment).

    My thanks to those more knowledgeable than I am, whose knowledge stated elsewhere I am relying on for this.
    Unfortunately, the full MLE initiates a hard cap, and since we will be over that line in all likelihood, we will likely be restricted to the tax-payer's MLE, which is just over half as valuable ($5.3M or so, only 3 seasons, not 4) as the full MLE.

    We have a trade exception from the Carroll trade (11.8M) that is good until July 13th this summer. We also have a Cory Joseph exception (originally worth 7.63M) which expires one day later. I believe the Raptors used part of that CoJo exception in the Bruno trade, so now it is only worth 6.125M, and they created a new 2.45M exception that expires on the 8th of February next season.

    Yes, the Raptors are currently lined up with the current roster, letting all FA's walk, and filling out the 14 roster spots with minimum salaries, to have a total team salary of 131M, which comes with a tax bill of 15M, making for a total roster cost of 146M. If, for example, FVV gets a full MLE offer and the Raptors match that offer, those numbers would increase to 138M, 33M in tax, and a total bill of 171M. So FVV at the MLE costs the team 25M. Similarly, a tax-MLE signing (5.3M) would actually cost the team 14M.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • Holy shit this is awesome:

      http://www.shamsports.com/capulator

      I'll post it to one of the active threads too so people can see it.

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      • Scraptor wrote: View Post
        Holy shit this is awesome:

        http://www.shamsports.com/capulator

        I'll post it to one of the active threads too so people can see it.
        Yep. Deeks is still working on some bugs, but it's already obviously infinitely better than the ESPN trade machine, and is capable of way more.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • FYI:

          https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/5/11/...p-sheet-review

          Current Salary Picture
          Kyle Lowry $28,703,704
          DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
          Serge Ibaka $20,061,729
          Jonas Valanciunas $15,460,675
          C.J. Miles $7,936,508
          Lucas Nogueira $2,947,305
          Jakob Poeltl $2,825,640
          Delon Wright $1,645,200
          OG Anunoby $1,645,200
          Malachi Richardson $1,504,560
          Norman Powell $1,471,382
          Alfonzo McKinnie $1,471,382
          Fred VanVleet $1,471,382
          Pascal Siakam $1,312,611
          Justin Hamilton $1,000,000
          Nigel Hayes $166,258
          K.J. McDaniels $100,000
          Lorenzo Brown $8,313

          The values are shown as they apply to the tax calculation (which uses slightly different values for some minimum salaries). In addition, Kyle Lowry (assuming he is not selected to the All-NBA or All-Defense teams) only achieved one of his salary bonuses, the All-Star bonus worth roughly $200,000, so the team’s total salary obligation for tax purposes is $117.6 million. That’s $1.66 million shy of the tax threshold.

          The tax is calculated on the last day of the regular season, so there is no downside to making trades to move above that tax threshold now that the season is over. But the team is still hard capped until July 1st rolls around. Keep in mind that the hard cap rules mean that Lowry’s incentives still count for that calculation even though we know they won’t be fulfilled, so the team salary counts as $119.7 million, with the hard cap set at $125.3 million, meaning the Raptors have about $5.5 million in trade flexibility prior to July 1st.
          2018-19 Salary Picture
          Kyle Lowry $31,200,000
          DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
          Serge Ibaka $21,666,666
          Jonas Valanciunas $16,539,326
          Norman Powell $9,367,200
          C.J. Miles $8,333,333
          Jakob Poeltl $2,947,320
          Delon Wright $2,536,898
          OG Anunoby $1,952,760
          Malachi Richardson $1,569,360
          Pascal Siakam $1,544,951
          Alfonzo McKinnie $1,499,698
          Justin Hamilton $1,000,000

          The values here, just as above, are shown as they apply to the tax calculation, as the team is in no danger of having any cap room, and the tax line is more relevant to this coming year.

          Lowry’s base salary of $31 million is increased by his roughly $200,000 All-Star incentive, as it becomes “likely” with him having achieved it this year. We may or may not get more accurate information on his incentives in coming months.

          In all, the team has 12 players signed to a total of $127.9 million. The tax line next season is projected at $123 million. Which means the team is currently projected to be at least $7.9 million above the tax line (as they need to sign at least two minimum salary deals to hit the roster minimum of 14 players).
          Much more detail at the link if interested.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • Powell killing us... as is Ibaka...as is Demar... as is kyle.

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            • https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/7/18/...-demar-derozan

              Kyle Lowry $31,200,000
              Kawhi Leonard $23,114,067
              Serge Ibaka $21,666,666
              Jonas Valanciunas $16,539,326
              Danny Green $10,000,000
              Norman Powell $9,367,200
              Fred VanVleet $8,879,850
              C.J. Miles $8,333,333
              Delon Wright $2,536,898
              OG Anunoby $1,952,760
              Malachi Richardson $1,569,360
              Pascal Siakam $1,544,951
              Lorenzo Brown $1,512,601
              Justin Hamilton $1,000,000
              Importantly for the Raptors, this trade increases their committed salary to $140.7 million, and their tax bill to $35.2 million, when you consider adding minimum salary players to fill out the roster. The Raptors also have their tax-payer’s mid-level exception ($5.3 million starting salary, up to three years in length) to add a player, but with the tax bill so high, the minimum is far more likely.
              As we’ve noted in the past, the Raptors were already lined up for an even more significant tax bill in 2019-20 than this year, and this move does not change that. If we assume the players on the roster now stay there, Kawhi gets his max, and the Raptors fill any holes with minimum salary players, they are currently projected at $150.2 million in team salary. The tax line next summer is projected at $132.4 million, so that puts the team well into the tax with a tax bill of $37.9 million.

              There are several complicating factors, such as which free agents the Raptors re-sign (both Delon Wright and Danny Green walk in the above numbers), and whether Jonas Valanciunas opts into his player option for that season (I would expect he would with the way centre markets have gone), but that at least gives us an idea.
              Last edited by DanH; Wed Jul 18th, 2018, 12:24 PM.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • You're a good man DanH. We should pay you for keeping track of this stuff
                It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                • One note on those contracts - FVV actually came in a little lower than I have listed there - he was eligible for at most slightly over 18M, so I assumed he signed for his max two year deal. It seems he actually signed for exactly the 18M. So chop a few hundred k off his salary.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • DanH wrote: View Post
                    One note on those contracts - FVV actually came in a little lower than I have listed there - he was eligible for at most slightly over 18M, so I assumed he signed for his max two year deal. It seems he actually signed for exactly the 18M. So chop a few hundred k off his salary.

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                    • Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
                      Question about our big 2020 offseason.

                      What are the cap holds on Lowry, Pascal, FVV?

                      What kind of extension is Delon eligible for the prior year?

                      If JV signs a huge 1 year deal next season, how do we go about calculating his cap hold?

                      I’m trying to figure out if 2 maxes along with Kawhi, Lowry, FVV, Delon, Pascal, OG, JV and assuming Norm is still on the books is possible.

                      Are cap numbers even available for the 2020-21 season yet?
                      There are projections. 2020 is projected at 116M cap. 2021 based on my own projections (just following cap patterns) should be about 123M.

                      The cap hold for Lowry is his max contract (projected at 40.6M). But signing him first would reduce that number to whatever contract he signs. So really you just have to set aside what you intend to give him. Pascal's is 7.1M. FVV will be 14.4M. Delon can be extended at up to his max salary, as he's coming off a rookie scale deal. I don't imagine he'll get it, but he's eligible for up to 25.5M starting salary this summer (or a "maximum salary" extension, which would wait for next summer's cap level, making it a couple million higher). He can also wait for free agency next summer, at which point he is eligible for a 5 year deal at his max.

                      If JV opts in to next year, it's easy, as his cap hold will be 26.4M. If he opts out and re-signs to a one year deal, his cap hold the following summer would be 1.5 times his new salary. Another case where if his salary comes in lower than his cap hit, you just sign him before using cap space to reduce his impact on the cap.

                      Norm is owed 10.9M in 2020-21, and has a player option for 11.6M in 2021-22.

                      As of now, the only contracts on the books in summer 2020 are Norm (10.9M) and OG (3.9M). The cap is projected at 116M, and roster slot cap holds are projected at 900k.

                      Kawhi, if he re-signs next summer, will make 35.3M. So he, Norm and OG account for 50.1M, leaving 66M or so. A 7-9 year max salary slot would be 34.8M. So right there, even with just those three (when you add on 9 minimum salary slots for 8.1M), you only have room for one max and a 23M contract. Removing Norm entirely would get you one max (34.8M) and one near-max (33M). But that's all without keeping anyone else. And doesn't include your 2020 draft pick (which would be at least a little more than a roster slot).
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                      • DanH wrote: View Post
                        There are projections. 2020 is projected at 116M cap. 2021 based on my own projections (just following cap patterns) should be about 123M.

                        The cap hold for Lowry is his max contract (projected at 40.6M). But signing him first would reduce that number to whatever contract he signs. So really you just have to set aside what you intend to give him. Pascal's is 7.1M. FVV will be 14.4M. Delon can be extended at up to his max salary, as he's coming off a rookie scale deal. I don't imagine he'll get it, but he's eligible for up to 25.5M starting salary this summer (or a "maximum salary" extension, which would wait for next summer's cap level, making it a couple million higher). He can also wait for free agency next summer, at which point he is eligible for a 5 year deal at his max.

                        If JV opts in to next year, it's easy, as his cap hold will be 26.4M. If he opts out and re-signs to a one year deal, his cap hold the following summer would be 1.5 times his new salary. Another case where if his salary comes in lower than his cap hit, you just sign him before using cap space to reduce his impact on the cap.

                        Norm is owed 10.9M in 2020-21, and has a player option for 11.6M in 2021-22.

                        As of now, the only contracts on the books in summer 2020 are Norm (10.9M) and OG (3.9M). The cap is projected at 116M, and roster slot cap holds are projected at 900k.

                        Kawhi, if he re-signs next summer, will make 35.3M. So he, Norm and OG account for 50.1M, leaving 66M or so. A 7-9 year max salary slot would be 34.8M. So right there, even with just those three (when you add on 9 minimum salary slots for 8.1M), you only have room for one max and a 23M contract. Removing Norm entirely would get you one max (34.8M) and one near-max (33M). But that's all without keeping anyone else. And doesn't include your 2020 draft pick (which would be at least a little more than a roster slot).

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                          • Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
                            sheesh.

                            roster slots go up to 12 since that’s the minimum you need correct?

                            so if we dump Norm, between OG, Kawhi and Pascal’s hold since the contract will probably be more expensive we’d have 46.3M committed (54.4M with holds). so that could essentially land 2 maxes

                            if we guess values
                            FVV at 12M at that point (similar to smart)
                            Delon at 9M (similar to FVV now)
                            JV at 16M (same as now)
                            And KLow at 25M (tough to guess depending on health, regression and possible paycut if we’re players in FA)
                            1M for a rookie (since it’s probably late 20’s and we can calculate it before they sign for the full 120%)

                            We end up with just about 10M in cap space.

                            Eliminating JV and KLow puts us at about 50M in cap space.

                            So a situation with a core of Kawhi, OG, Pascal, FVV, Delon, a rookie, JV and a max is possible. Interesting.
                            Roster slots go up to 12 because 14 is the minimum, and you also have the room MLE. So the 14th guy can be signed with the R-MLE, the 13th guy can be signed with your cap space, and there have to be 12 roster slots "filled" - either by contracts or cap holds.

                            As a note, the full 120% counts for rookies now even before they sign.

                            Your math seems about right for those scenarios. A lot of guesswork at this stage.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
                              Thanks a lot btw, don’t know where I would’ve gotten those answers anywhere else lol
                              No problem.
                              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                              • DanH wrote: View Post
                                Roster slots go up to 12 because 14 is the minimum, and you also have the room MLE. So the 14th guy can be signed with the R-MLE, the 13th guy can be signed with your cap space, and there have to be 12 roster slots "filled" - either by contracts or cap holds.

                                As a note, the full 120% counts for rookies now even before they sign.

                                Your math seems about right for those scenarios. A lot of guesswork at this stage.
                                Huh. Might as well just make it so the contract is automatically the full 120% then.

                                Does anybody not get the full amount? Seems like a formality at this point

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