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  • #46
    Interesting note (interesting to me anyway). DD hit an incentive last season, presumably for making the all-star game. 600k bonus money for him last year.

    The interesting bit is that it adds 600k to last year's tax calculation (we were well clear), AND to THIS year's cap calculation.

    This is because of the way incentives are classified. They are either likely or unlikely. Likely incentives count against the cap all year. Unlikely ones don't. And any incentives that are actually met count against the final tax calculation (and vice versa - likely bonuses that are not met do not count against the tax even though they counted against the cap all year long).

    And the way they are classified is determined entirely (in most cases) by whether they achieved that incentive the year before. DD didn't make the 2013 all-star game, so for 2013-14, his incentive was classified as unlikely. So the 600k did not count against the cap. He achieved the incentive, so the 600k gets paid to him and counts against the tax.

    This year, DD's incentive is listed as likely, since he made the 2014 all-star game. As such, the 600k will count against the cap all year long (I'm shocked this wasn't reported earlier, as it had implications in the event we lost Lowry or our other players, and has implications for the tax calculation). And will count against the tax only if he makes the all-star team again this year.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #47
      What would that mean for a player like Hansbrough? That means those 1st round picks are important for keeping a balanced perspective for maintaining team salary infrastructure.
      That means a quality starting 5 in 2016 , playing below the luxury tax would be approx. $60-65 million dollars
      The next three/ four bench players will be approx. 20 -25 million. So 85 million would be allocated for the first 8/9.
      Three first round salaries would total 5/6 million dollars.
      The last three players would total around 8/9 million dollars.
      So the team would come in under 99 million dollars, fortunately for the Raptors they have a couple of players still under the entry level contracts - plus two Brazillian players who are commencing their contracts.

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      • #48
        Looks like Patterson's deal is a strange 5.8M, 6.2M, 6.0M structure. Couldn't tell you why.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • #49
          DanH wrote: View Post
          Looks like Patterson's deal is a strange 5.8M, 6.2M, 6.0M structure. Couldn't tell you why.
          Maybe the 5.8 was to cover DD's bonus for this year and they originally planned to go 6.0, 6.0, 6.0?

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          • #50
            planetmars wrote: View Post
            Maybe the 5.8 was to cover DD's bonus for this year and they originally planned to go 6.0, 6.0, 6.0?
            Could be. They are clear about 2.2M from the tax instead of 2M now. So if they are adding a min salary guy (counts as about 1M for tax purposes), they've got 1.2M instead of 1M. So room for two incentives the size of DD's (perhaps Lowry has a similar incentive).
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • #51
              Let's give it up for bobby Webster everybody!

              *wild applause ensues I'm sure*

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              • #52
                In terms of what incentives are known...

                DD clearly has a 600k incentive (was reported as an unknown amount until yesterday) now listed as likely.
                Amir has a 50k incentive he hasn't met, which is therefore listed as unlikely.

                There's no incentive note on Lowry's contract status on any of the websites.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • #53
                  BoxScoreGeeks.com with an interesting breakdown of what the new TV deal might do to NBA salaries. They look at two scenarios based on a modest estimation of what the new contract should look like:

                  Using that 2.31 ratio, we can predict an average annual number of about $2.144 Billion for the total of all the contracts that the league signs with it's television partners.

                  Given the current competitive environement for live sports television rights and the propagation of new outlets looking to make a mark (NBC Sports, Fox Sports 1), I think this is a very conservative estimate for the contract. Consider that this is the first major sports contract that has gone to bid since the birth of the aforementioned competitors for ESPN from NBC Universal and News Corp and, as I mentioned in the Sloan conference review piece, Google is circling the old media companies like a shark that smells blood in the water. This could get very interesting very quickly.

                  I would not be shocked by a number in the $3.5 billion per year range. But we'll keep this within the range of very likely outcomes. $2.144 Billion a year is our number. There are two flavors for this number though. Does the NBA take a step increase like the NHL, MLB in their last deals, or do they negotiate a yearly increase like the NFL?
                  In this scenario we see the cap rise from the $67 million range in 2015-16 to the $89 million range in 2016-17 with a player salary max at around $29 million. This basically means that every single NBA team should be able to fairly easily make a max contract offer to a Player in the 2016 offseason. Durant, Love, Lebron will be able to pick and choose wherever they want to go and there will be some horrendous contracts given out -- Horrendous!
                  This scenario is somewhat more sedate. The jump is from $67 million to $81.5 in that 2016 offseason. Only around $14.5 million extra to throw around. The max salary only moves to the $26/27 million a year range. However, I still expect a majority of teams to sign max contracts. It'll still make this offseason look like a flag football game by comparison.
                  http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/article...cap-apocalypse


                  This is based on a $2.144B contract. If it jumps higher obviously higher payrolls.

                  It might be time to start looking at NBA salaries a little differently this summer and next.

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                  • #54
                    mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                    BoxScoreGeeks.com with an interesting breakdown of what the new TV deal might do to NBA salaries. They look at two scenarios based on a modest estimation of what the new contract should look like:







                    http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/article...cap-apocalypse


                    This is based on a $2.144B contract. If it jumps higher obviously higher payrolls.

                    It might be time to start looking at NBA salaries a little differently this summer and next.
                    Yeah, it is possible it jumps that much. But reports are the NBA is aiming a little lower (roughly double the current rate) so I doubt negotiations get it up that high. Still possible, but not likely, I don't think.

                    I broke down the numbers upthread for a doubling of the TV revenue, which I think is more realistic. Still a very large jump.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • #55
                      Goddamn, DeRozan is going to get 20M per season......

                      Maybe more...

                      Like I said, we need James Johnson to take him out at the knees in the last playoff game of 2016.

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                      • #56
                        That was based on the same media outlets , but I hear Foxsports wants in as well. Isn't DirecTv contract is due for renewal one year later.

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                        • #57
                          imanshumpert wrote: View Post
                          Goddamn, DeRozan is going to get 20M per season......Maybe more...
                          I have no clue whether Masai will bite the bullet on him or not.
                          The name's Bond, James Bond.

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                          • #58
                            007 wrote: View Post
                            I have no clue whether Masai will bite the bullet on him or not.
                            Depends on price of equivalent or better players. There is some value in demonstrating to the league (players and agents) loyalty, but not much. Bean counters tend to run teams, unless you have a multi-billionaire owner, or an entity with a huge stake in producing salable content (Bell and Rogers). But even so, if there are cheaper options out there, of equal or better value, who wouldn't pull the trigger? Masai has shown a pretty good ability at valuing his players.

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                            • #59
                              Let us see how DD plays for the next two years , he will be 26 years old and finally reaching his prime. The monies are irrelevant at that time. The Raptors will have at least 5 contracts that are entry level salaries.
                              The Raptors will have 2 or 3 players of lower level salaries and additional veterans salary. This would leave for 2016/17 season with a projected cap after the TV dollar deal is being determined.

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                              • #60
                                ESPN trade machine has plugged in some salaries for GV and JJ. JJ at 2.5M (flat deal), and GV at 6.4M (so a slightly backloaded deal with 6.6M next year). That GV deal is not some generic assumption, so I have to think they have a source on this.

                                With DD's increased salary amount, Amir's small incentive, and those numbers for GV and JJ, we sit about 1.5M clear of the tax. So any ideas for backup C or third string PG should consider that budget.
                                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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