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Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

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  • inthepaint
    replied
    I hope Kawhi re-signs (I actually think that's not an unlikely scenario at all), but in the event he doesn't, it's interesting the path the team could take in the next 3 yrs of so. Huge variables in place on a 3yr path of course, but just for fun, this is something I imagined:

    --2018-2019 Season: Finals run. If we make it and take a game or two out of golden state, that's a huge incentive for Kawhi to stick around, in which case we shoot for it again the year after. But if we don't and he bolts, then-

    --Summer 2019: Try to move expiring deals of Lowry, JV, Ibaka and Miles (before they become UFA's in 2020), for prospect & picks as best as we can. Retain FVV, OG and Siakam.

    --2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons: 2 yrs of rebuilding and clearing cap space, hopefully drafting as high as possible (aiming for backcourt players)

    --2021 summer: Anthony Davis (PF), Rudy Gobert (C) and Giannis Atentekuonpo (SF) are all free agents. If we had the cap space and pull to sign 2 out of those 3 guys, that'd be an awesome frontcourt (to combine with the drafted back court players we would have drafted during the rebuild)

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  • DanH
    replied
    Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
    Huh. Might as well just make it so the contract is automatically the full 120% then.

    Does anybody not get the full amount? Seems like a formality at this point
    It is a formality, with very few exceptions. Teams do like to be able to build in soft bonuses into that 120% though - like fan event appearances, summer league participation, etc.

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  • Bonus Jonas
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    Roster slots go up to 12 because 14 is the minimum, and you also have the room MLE. So the 14th guy can be signed with the R-MLE, the 13th guy can be signed with your cap space, and there have to be 12 roster slots "filled" - either by contracts or cap holds.

    As a note, the full 120% counts for rookies now even before they sign.

    Your math seems about right for those scenarios. A lot of guesswork at this stage.
    Huh. Might as well just make it so the contract is automatically the full 120% then.

    Does anybody not get the full amount? Seems like a formality at this point

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
    Thanks a lot btw, don’t know where I would’ve gotten those answers anywhere else lol
    No problem.

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  • DanH
    replied
    Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
    sheesh.

    roster slots go up to 12 since that’s the minimum you need correct?

    so if we dump Norm, between OG, Kawhi and Pascal’s hold since the contract will probably be more expensive we’d have 46.3M committed (54.4M with holds). so that could essentially land 2 maxes

    if we guess values
    FVV at 12M at that point (similar to smart)
    Delon at 9M (similar to FVV now)
    JV at 16M (same as now)
    And KLow at 25M (tough to guess depending on health, regression and possible paycut if we’re players in FA)
    1M for a rookie (since it’s probably late 20’s and we can calculate it before they sign for the full 120%)

    We end up with just about 10M in cap space.

    Eliminating JV and KLow puts us at about 50M in cap space.

    So a situation with a core of Kawhi, OG, Pascal, FVV, Delon, a rookie, JV and a max is possible. Interesting.
    Roster slots go up to 12 because 14 is the minimum, and you also have the room MLE. So the 14th guy can be signed with the R-MLE, the 13th guy can be signed with your cap space, and there have to be 12 roster slots "filled" - either by contracts or cap holds.

    As a note, the full 120% counts for rookies now even before they sign.

    Your math seems about right for those scenarios. A lot of guesswork at this stage.

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  • Bonus Jonas
    replied
    Thanks a lot btw, don’t know where I would’ve gotten those answers anywhere else lol

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  • Bonus Jonas
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    There are projections. 2020 is projected at 116M cap. 2021 based on my own projections (just following cap patterns) should be about 123M.

    The cap hold for Lowry is his max contract (projected at 40.6M). But signing him first would reduce that number to whatever contract he signs. So really you just have to set aside what you intend to give him. Pascal's is 7.1M. FVV will be 14.4M. Delon can be extended at up to his max salary, as he's coming off a rookie scale deal. I don't imagine he'll get it, but he's eligible for up to 25.5M starting salary this summer (or a "maximum salary" extension, which would wait for next summer's cap level, making it a couple million higher). He can also wait for free agency next summer, at which point he is eligible for a 5 year deal at his max.

    If JV opts in to next year, it's easy, as his cap hold will be 26.4M. If he opts out and re-signs to a one year deal, his cap hold the following summer would be 1.5 times his new salary. Another case where if his salary comes in lower than his cap hit, you just sign him before using cap space to reduce his impact on the cap.

    Norm is owed 10.9M in 2020-21, and has a player option for 11.6M in 2021-22.

    As of now, the only contracts on the books in summer 2020 are Norm (10.9M) and OG (3.9M). The cap is projected at 116M, and roster slot cap holds are projected at 900k.

    Kawhi, if he re-signs next summer, will make 35.3M. So he, Norm and OG account for 50.1M, leaving 66M or so. A 7-9 year max salary slot would be 34.8M. So right there, even with just those three (when you add on 9 minimum salary slots for 8.1M), you only have room for one max and a 23M contract. Removing Norm entirely would get you one max (34.8M) and one near-max (33M). But that's all without keeping anyone else. And doesn't include your 2020 draft pick (which would be at least a little more than a roster slot).
    sheesh.

    roster slots go up to 12 since that’s the minimum you need correct?

    so if we dump Norm, between OG, Kawhi and Pascal’s hold since the contract will probably be more expensive we’d have 46.3M committed (54.4M with holds). so that could essentially land 2 maxes

    if we guess values
    FVV at 12M at that point (similar to smart)
    Delon at 9M (similar to FVV now)
    JV at 16M (same as now)
    And KLow at 25M (tough to guess depending on health, regression and possible paycut if we’re players in FA)
    1M for a rookie (since it’s probably late 20’s and we can calculate it before they sign for the full 120%)

    We end up with just about 10M in cap space.

    Eliminating JV and KLow puts us at about 50M in cap space.

    So a situation with a core of Kawhi, OG, Pascal, FVV, Delon, a rookie, JV and a max is possible. Interesting.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
    Question about our big 2020 offseason.

    What are the cap holds on Lowry, Pascal, FVV?

    What kind of extension is Delon eligible for the prior year?

    If JV signs a huge 1 year deal next season, how do we go about calculating his cap hold?

    I’m trying to figure out if 2 maxes along with Kawhi, Lowry, FVV, Delon, Pascal, OG, JV and assuming Norm is still on the books is possible.

    Are cap numbers even available for the 2020-21 season yet?
    There are projections. 2020 is projected at 116M cap. 2021 based on my own projections (just following cap patterns) should be about 123M.

    The cap hold for Lowry is his max contract (projected at 40.6M). But signing him first would reduce that number to whatever contract he signs. So really you just have to set aside what you intend to give him. Pascal's is 7.1M. FVV will be 14.4M. Delon can be extended at up to his max salary, as he's coming off a rookie scale deal. I don't imagine he'll get it, but he's eligible for up to 25.5M starting salary this summer (or a "maximum salary" extension, which would wait for next summer's cap level, making it a couple million higher). He can also wait for free agency next summer, at which point he is eligible for a 5 year deal at his max.

    If JV opts in to next year, it's easy, as his cap hold will be 26.4M. If he opts out and re-signs to a one year deal, his cap hold the following summer would be 1.5 times his new salary. Another case where if his salary comes in lower than his cap hit, you just sign him before using cap space to reduce his impact on the cap.

    Norm is owed 10.9M in 2020-21, and has a player option for 11.6M in 2021-22.

    As of now, the only contracts on the books in summer 2020 are Norm (10.9M) and OG (3.9M). The cap is projected at 116M, and roster slot cap holds are projected at 900k.

    Kawhi, if he re-signs next summer, will make 35.3M. So he, Norm and OG account for 50.1M, leaving 66M or so. A 7-9 year max salary slot would be 34.8M. So right there, even with just those three (when you add on 9 minimum salary slots for 8.1M), you only have room for one max and a 23M contract. Removing Norm entirely would get you one max (34.8M) and one near-max (33M). But that's all without keeping anyone else. And doesn't include your 2020 draft pick (which would be at least a little more than a roster slot).

    Leave a comment:


  • Bonus Jonas
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    One note on those contracts - FVV actually came in a little lower than I have listed there - he was eligible for at most slightly over 18M, so I assumed he signed for his max two year deal. It seems he actually signed for exactly the 18M. So chop a few hundred k off his salary.
    Question about our big 2020 offseason.

    What are the cap holds on Lowry, Pascal, FVV?

    What kind of extension is Delon eligible for the prior year?

    If JV signs a huge 1 year deal next season, how do we go about calculating his cap hold?

    I’m trying to figure out if 2 maxes along with Kawhi, Lowry, FVV, Delon, Pascal, OG, JV and assuming Norm is still on the books is possible.

    Are cap numbers even available for the 2020-21 season yet?

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    One note on those contracts - FVV actually came in a little lower than I have listed there - he was eligible for at most slightly over 18M, so I assumed he signed for his max two year deal. It seems he actually signed for exactly the 18M. So chop a few hundred k off his salary.

    Leave a comment:


  • KeonClark
    replied
    You're a good man DanH. We should pay you for keeping track of this stuff

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/7/18/...-demar-derozan

    Kyle Lowry $31,200,000
    Kawhi Leonard $23,114,067
    Serge Ibaka $21,666,666
    Jonas Valanciunas $16,539,326
    Danny Green $10,000,000
    Norman Powell $9,367,200
    Fred VanVleet $8,879,850
    C.J. Miles $8,333,333
    Delon Wright $2,536,898
    OG Anunoby $1,952,760
    Malachi Richardson $1,569,360
    Pascal Siakam $1,544,951
    Lorenzo Brown $1,512,601
    Justin Hamilton $1,000,000
    Importantly for the Raptors, this trade increases their committed salary to $140.7 million, and their tax bill to $35.2 million, when you consider adding minimum salary players to fill out the roster. The Raptors also have their tax-payer’s mid-level exception ($5.3 million starting salary, up to three years in length) to add a player, but with the tax bill so high, the minimum is far more likely.
    As we’ve noted in the past, the Raptors were already lined up for an even more significant tax bill in 2019-20 than this year, and this move does not change that. If we assume the players on the roster now stay there, Kawhi gets his max, and the Raptors fill any holes with minimum salary players, they are currently projected at $150.2 million in team salary. The tax line next summer is projected at $132.4 million, so that puts the team well into the tax with a tax bill of $37.9 million.

    There are several complicating factors, such as which free agents the Raptors re-sign (both Delon Wright and Danny Green walk in the above numbers), and whether Jonas Valanciunas opts into his player option for that season (I would expect he would with the way centre markets have gone), but that at least gives us an idea.
    Last edited by DanH; Wed Jul 18, 2018, 12:24 PM.

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  • sanyo
    replied
    Powell killing us... as is Ibaka...as is Demar... as is kyle.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    FYI:

    https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/5/11/...p-sheet-review

    Current Salary Picture
    Kyle Lowry $28,703,704
    DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
    Serge Ibaka $20,061,729
    Jonas Valanciunas $15,460,675
    C.J. Miles $7,936,508
    Lucas Nogueira $2,947,305
    Jakob Poeltl $2,825,640
    Delon Wright $1,645,200
    OG Anunoby $1,645,200
    Malachi Richardson $1,504,560
    Norman Powell $1,471,382
    Alfonzo McKinnie $1,471,382
    Fred VanVleet $1,471,382
    Pascal Siakam $1,312,611
    Justin Hamilton $1,000,000
    Nigel Hayes $166,258
    K.J. McDaniels $100,000
    Lorenzo Brown $8,313

    The values are shown as they apply to the tax calculation (which uses slightly different values for some minimum salaries). In addition, Kyle Lowry (assuming he is not selected to the All-NBA or All-Defense teams) only achieved one of his salary bonuses, the All-Star bonus worth roughly $200,000, so the team’s total salary obligation for tax purposes is $117.6 million. That’s $1.66 million shy of the tax threshold.

    The tax is calculated on the last day of the regular season, so there is no downside to making trades to move above that tax threshold now that the season is over. But the team is still hard capped until July 1st rolls around. Keep in mind that the hard cap rules mean that Lowry’s incentives still count for that calculation even though we know they won’t be fulfilled, so the team salary counts as $119.7 million, with the hard cap set at $125.3 million, meaning the Raptors have about $5.5 million in trade flexibility prior to July 1st.
    2018-19 Salary Picture
    Kyle Lowry $31,200,000
    DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
    Serge Ibaka $21,666,666
    Jonas Valanciunas $16,539,326
    Norman Powell $9,367,200
    C.J. Miles $8,333,333
    Jakob Poeltl $2,947,320
    Delon Wright $2,536,898
    OG Anunoby $1,952,760
    Malachi Richardson $1,569,360
    Pascal Siakam $1,544,951
    Alfonzo McKinnie $1,499,698
    Justin Hamilton $1,000,000

    The values here, just as above, are shown as they apply to the tax calculation, as the team is in no danger of having any cap room, and the tax line is more relevant to this coming year.

    Lowry’s base salary of $31 million is increased by his roughly $200,000 All-Star incentive, as it becomes “likely” with him having achieved it this year. We may or may not get more accurate information on his incentives in coming months.

    In all, the team has 12 players signed to a total of $127.9 million. The tax line next season is projected at $123 million. Which means the team is currently projected to be at least $7.9 million above the tax line (as they need to sign at least two minimum salary deals to hit the roster minimum of 14 players).
    Much more detail at the link if interested.

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  • DanH
    replied
    Scraptor wrote: View Post
    Holy shit this is awesome:

    http://www.shamsports.com/capulator

    I'll post it to one of the active threads too so people can see it.
    Yep. Deeks is still working on some bugs, but it's already obviously infinitely better than the ESPN trade machine, and is capable of way more.

    Leave a comment:

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