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Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

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  • #76
    Amir deal is crazy , but even crazier is rolling the dice on Durant, you have two potential all stars -DD and JV and a team leader in KL. Ross has potential to be a small forward or a Sg as he matures if DD leaves. But four of Five talented starters are as good as two Superstars. A 15/10 or 17/8 guy at PF for 28- 30 minutes is what is necessary to complete this team.

    KL,Dd,TRoss,JV is 80% of a very strong starting 5 .GV,JJ and PPat solid midterm bench. A backup center is significant and a starting PF is important. Haslem is beloved in Miami and he took the financial hit for the team. Toronto will not have that luxury.
    So who is your PF- Durant is a Dream- a 100-1 long shot. This is a way Toronto growth will get burnt.

    The superstar teams grow old because of financial cap issues without any bench from the 8 th player onwards. Miami taught Lebron that he needed a young team that would grow with him as he ages and a bench that are being paid almost nothing - miller, Marion and Jones.

    What about Omer Asik as your starting forward next year - strong rebounder, solid defensive forward - and could be a 15/10 and roll into the backup center roll. Toronto than can rebound and run with KL, DD & TRoss

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    • #77
      B-ball insiders are reporting that Hamilton and Cherry are each only $25k guaranteed, so avoiding the tax will be no issue if both of them are waived.

      They are reporting Stiemsma as fully guaranteed though, which is odd since reports initially were that he also had a partial guarantee. If true, he's a shoe in for the last roster spot.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • #78
        As Heatdreamer pointed out here:

        http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...ing-in-2015-16

        Blazer's edge ran some numbers assuming a smoothed cap impact over three years starting in 2015 instead of one year in 2016. I disagree with their math - here is how I would expect it to break down. This is based on the current trend of revenue outrunning projections by about 1% (so a 5.5% annual increase instead of 4.5%) and assuming the cap lines up with where it should be in 2017-18.

        Current projections:
        2014-15: $63.1M cap, $78.0M tax
        2015-16: $66.5M cap, $80.9M tax
        2016-17: $85.3M cap, $102.0M tax
        2017-18: $88.5M cap, $105.8M tax

        Smoothed:
        2014-15: $63.1M cap, $78.0M tax
        2015-16: $71.6M cap, $87.0M tax
        2016-17: $80.0M cap, $95.7M tax
        2017-18: $88.5M cap, $105.8M tax

        Big impact is next summer and the summer after. Pretty much scuttles any chance of having max room in 2016 to chase Durant. But opens up true max next summer (we could have $22 million in cap room). Maybe opens up possibility of keeping Amir AND chasing a big name, if the true max guys are not an option.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • #79
          Nice presentation- agree with you the natural growth of the BRI will be higher a 5.5 growth is reasonable.

          How about a free agent reach for Faried as your PF 4/75 or a Milsap at 4/50 are either feasiable , I guess that a trade for Lee plus a barnes or green is also viable.

          Since Klay wants near max to stay in GS does the proposed higher cap still put pressure on GS to trade Lee with the prospect kicker. Now the number of entry contracts have higher impact value on the total salary cap.

          Also teams having their RFA approaching their renewal periods must make decisions quickly to keep the second contracts reasonable.

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          • #80
            If the NBA doesn't smooth the cap, mediocre free agents are going to get "stupid" money in 2016.

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            • #81
              Katman wrote: View Post
              If the NBA doesn't smooth the cap, mediocre free agents are going to get "stupid" money in 2016.
              Your point reinforces my belief that the NBA issuing this notice to the teams actually has occurred. As well , this will mean that management can actively plan their salary spending habits for an extended period of time and not have a free agency free for all in 2016 free agency period that would occur otherwise.

              So again Dan H. has indicated that T.O. In 2015/16 that Toronto is potentially 22 million dollars below the smoothed salary cap.

              Toronto requires a starting PF on a 3 or 4 year contract. A backup PG unless you plan to extend GV for three years and that gives TO to draft and develop a PG for the future. A real backup center until BeBe (4 years) is ready.

              To me if Bledsoe is kept by the Suns, Toronto should offer a 1st and Tyler Hansborough and Bebe for Ennis plus Plumlee or in the alternative a smaller deal for Norris Coles for hansborough .

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              • #82
                mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                BoxScoreGeeks.com with an interesting breakdown of what the new TV deal might do to NBA salaries. They look at two scenarios based on a modest estimation of what the new contract should look like:



                http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/article...cap-apocalypse


                This is based on a $2.144B contract. If it jumps higher obviously higher payrolls.

                It might be time to start looking at NBA salaries a little differently this summer and next.

                Well this just blows it out of the water if true:

                The N.B.A. will receive $24 billion over nine years in deals the league has renewed with ESPN and TNT through the 2024-25 season, according to an executive briefed on the details of the contracts but not authorized to speak publicly.

                The deals, which will be announced Monday, represent a near-tripling of the annual average rights fees that ESPN and TNT have been paying in contracts that will end after the 2015-16 season.

                The average yearly payments will rise from about $930 million to $2.66 billion.

                http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/06/sp...lion.html?_r=1

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                • #83
                  Yeah, 24B over 9 years is what is being reported. Cap would jump to 95M or so. We'll see if they managed to frontload some of that into 2015-16, or backload the deal over the 9 years to give some cushion. Hopefully more details when they announce at 10.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • #84
                    My guess is that if they smooth it over three years, as suggested in some quarters- instead of being 71 million in year one and than 80.5 and finally 86 million in 2017/18. We are looking at ...81 million 2015/16, 90 and than 100 million dollars in Salary Cap. Does that mean, all the older players will stay in the league and their minimum vet Salaries could be as high as 3 million.
                    I hear Shawn Kemp and Oliver Miller are coming back , just think how many buffets they could afford.

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                    • #85
                      Vet minimum deals are defined as a dollar amount in the CBA - so vet minimum players will be underpaid for a few years. I imagine vet salaries will be adjusted upwards in the next negotiation (2017).
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                      • #86
                        DanH wrote: View Post
                        Vet minimum deals are defined as a dollar amount in the CBA - so vet minimum players will be underpaid for a few years. I imagine vet salaries will be adjusted upwards in the next negotiation (2017).
                        If Adam silver is correct for 2015 the split for players has become net 51% (89% of the 51% ) instead of net of a 50%. Would this address a higher salary cap in 2015/16.

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                        • #87
                          Heatdreamer wrote: View Post
                          If Adam silver is correct for 2015 the split for players has become net 51% (89% of the 51% ) instead of net of a 50%. Would this address a higher salary cap in 2015/16.
                          The cap is still calculated based on 50% - just the guaranteed money rolls up to 51%. Escrow takes care of the difference.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • #88
                            I thought I heard that the nba was sitting down with the union in the afternoon of the announcement to discuss a smoothing process including a discussion of the escrow position for 2015/16 to be alleviated for 1 year. If that is the case depending on growth of the BRI at 5, 6 or 7%. The cap combined with the suggestion alleviation upfront of the escrow account. Could push has as 69.5 million. Just think of Cleveland Cavs ticket sales and merchandise growing tremendously - and the shrinking but not equally of Miami heat tickets. Just don't think there will be as many Luol Deng tops sold in Miami compared to Lebron

                            Additionally, with a NBA minority ownership share of the OTT, will that share of profits initially be excluded from the any attribution towards the players

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                            • #89
                              Any smoothing process will probably start in 2016. They'd just have it get buy in from the NBPA to allow them to go off-formula for the cap, and then just make up the 51% in end of season payments.
                              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                              • #90
                                The problem with introducing extra cap room in 2015 and removing escrow correction is that the owners would be spending money they aren't receiving yet. Owners don't want that. And players don't want to give them ammo in the upcoming negotiations. If you keep the escrow correction, pulling totals down to 51% but with a high cap, any extra money that goes to free agents is effectively a pay cut for the rest of the league - and the NBPA in theory should be representing the majority.
                                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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