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Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

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  • lewro
    replied
    Seems like the preference is to dump JV. Probably less asset cost, at a deeper/more replaceable position/skill set and avoid the asset cost of dumping Demarre. Also, Masai signed Demarre whereas JV is a Bryco guy. I'm sure they'd like to shed Demarre too but... We will see. If JV has somewhere near the asset cost as Demarre then I'd rather keep JV.

    Leave a comment:


  • psrs1
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    Personally, I think the most likely scenario is:

    Re-sign Lowry to a big but sub-max deal (roughly 5/175M, maybe lower if Lowry is feeling generous).
    Re-sign Ibaka to a 5/100-120M deal.
    Re-sign Tucker to a 3/30M deal.
    Let Pat walk.
    Trade Joseph and Carroll into cap space with our 2017 pick and BeBe outgoing as asset cost. Something small and roughly valueless coming back.
    Spend some cash on mid-late 2nd rounders to draft a couple depth pieces. Spend part or all of the MLE (depending on exact amounts of the contracts above and other salary commitments) on a vet wing depth piece.

    Roster ends up like this:

    Lowry-Wright-VanVleet
    DeRozan-Powell-2nd rounder
    Tucker-MLE-Bruno
    Ibaka-Siakam-2nd rounder
    Valanciunas-Poeltl

    That dodges the tax and keeps most of the core together. And keeps the potential for those flexible small lineups with Ibaka at C and Tucker at PF, probably with bench backcourts of KL-Wright-Powell and Wright-DD-Powell, or the closing unit of Lowry-DD-Powell, while also maintaining the team's ability to play big and match up in that direction.
    I wanted to give props to DanH on his analysis . His most likely assessment re next years roster looks like he is going to be very close to his projections --

    At this point looks like staring 5

    JV KL DD DC SI


    Time will tell re bench --I can't say I am dissatisfied. Probable top 4 seed and 50 wins with 3 years to hope to figure out a way to improve at playoff time. Could be worse.

    Leave a comment:


  • sanyo
    replied
    We need 3 point shooting... BADLY.

    IM so sick of ISO ball... and now for 3 more years fuck guys this is gonna be a boring brand of b-ball.

    Would have rather just started a true tank here and see what the young guys were made off..

    Not feeling the Raps right now... it won't matter with GS probably winning (as long as they are healthy) for 2-3 more years at least.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    New post up as a prep piece for free agency. Mostly just outlines the same stuff we've been looking at but with the lower 99M cap projection.

    https://www.raptorshq.com/2017/6/27/...-cap-situation

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Mess wrote: View Post
    And would Reddick sign for "just" $15M? Unless Masai gives him more years than the other suitors - but nobody really wants to do that.
    Even then, 15M would definitely be on the cheap side. Like, $15M is more the ceiling for Tucker or Pat, who I think are a tier below JJ on the market.

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  • Mess
    replied
    And would Reddick sign for "just" $15M? Unless Masai gives him more years than the other suitors - but nobody really wants to do that.

    Leave a comment:


  • 3inthekeon
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    The math works. Personally I think that's a worse team than what we have (defining what we have as just dumping enough salary to retain three FA's under the tax).
    Agree it's a worse team, plus we've given up 2 assets (1st and Bebe) to make a worse team.

    Masai went for it last trade deadline. It was the right move, but it didn't work. Now we're throwing good money after bad.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    The math works. Personally I think that's a worse team than what we have (defining what we have as just dumping enough salary to retain three FA's under the tax).

    Leave a comment:


  • inthepaint
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    The math is easy. We have 81M committed now, the cap is 101M. Lowry and Ibaka have a combined 36M cap hold. So, take off the salaries for the guys you list and see how much cap space you can create. But letting Pat and Tucker walk doesn't "clear" cap space, it just doesn't take up extra cap room. So that doesn't help the picture at all. Losing BeBe clears about 2.5M. The pick about 1.5M. Still right in the range of only signing one extra free agent beyond Lowry and Ibaka.
    Well put. Realistically It does seem like only one free agent in this scenario is what we could get. This is probably unlikely, but just for the sake of dreaming on mitigating the 3-point imbalance, would this math work, and more importantly, would this be a better team than what we have:

    81M for the non free agents
    PLUS:36M for Lowry & Ibaka (cap holds)
    MINUS: 42.5M (outgoing JV, Joseph, Carrol, Bebe & 2017 draft picks)
    PLUS: 15M (Redick)
    PLUS 11M (Salary return on the trades)
    Subtotal: 100.5M

    I understand there's salary return on the trades to contend with, but since we're packing picks & a prospect (Bebe), the hope is we'd minimize the salary return:

    DanH wrote: View Post
    ...Trade Joseph and Carroll into cap space with our 2017 pick and BeBe outgoing as asset cost. Something small and roughly valueless coming back....
    Would this line up be a good one, and what are some other lineups with solid shooters that could be built this off-season?

    Lowry/Wright/Fred
    Derozan/Redick
    Powell/Bruno/Trade return
    Ibaka/Siakam/Trade return
    Poeltl/Trade return
    Last edited by inthepaint; Fri Jun 9, 2017, 03:51 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    The math is easy. We have 81M committed now, the cap is 101M. Lowry and Ibaka have a combined 36M cap hold. So, take off the salaries for the guys you list and see how much cap space you can create. But letting Pat and Tucker walk doesn't "clear" cap space, it just doesn't take up extra cap room. So that doesn't help the picture at all. Losing BeBe clears about 2.5M. The pick about 1.5M. Still right in the range of only signing one extra free agent beyond Lowry and Ibaka.

    Leave a comment:


  • inthepaint
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    Letting those three go clears up about 35M in cap room. Ibaka and Lowry's cap holds take up about 35M in cap room. So they are back at the 20M in cap room they can use on free agents. No way they get two decent players with that - maybe one Redick or Gallo. ...

    ...Generally the prospects/picks go the same direction as the salary - ie we'd lose our pick or some rookie scale guys to be able to be free of JV or Carroll (maybe not CoJo, he's cheap and fits most places). ...
    Thank you for shedding light on the numbers Dan. I understand you typically get salary return on the trades unless you package picks/prospects, as you explained. So if we send Bebe + 2017 draft picks along with JV/Cojo/Carrol to minimize the salary return (now we're sending six guys out [Pat, Tucker,JV, CoJo, Carrol & Bebeb] plus 2 picks), Is that still not enough room to sign both Redick & Gallinari (or maybe someone like Joe Ingles, if he's cheaper)? (assuming going into the luxury tax a bit is acceptable)

    I'm not saying it's possible or even that it's the best option, I'm just curious to see if it there's a way it could work. All I know is we desperately need more consistent shooters, and if we could get 2 of them alongside Lowry/DeRozan/Ibaka & Powell I think we'd have a very solid team and the offence would open up considerably:

    Lowry/Wright/Fred
    Derozan/Redick
    Powell/Bruno/Trade return
    Gallinari/Siakam/Trade return
    Ibaka/Poeltl/Trade return

    If Powell continues to develop his 3pt shot, a line up of Lowry, Redick, Powell, Gallinari and Ibaka would have all five players commanding serious respect from deep, with great floor stretching.
    Last edited by inthepaint; Sun Jun 4, 2017, 10:23 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • lewro
    replied
    I think you have to include JV as a possible trade target (albeit, probably the least likely). Once you know the market for the potential assets to be traded, weigh that against the draft and projected mle market. I imagine it will be difficult to find a 3&d wing in the mle market. Probably easier to replace a big body, rebounder. I might rather get swanigan with a 2nd Rd pick for example. Not that keen on sending our 1st with Carroll; we need all the talent we can get and preferably modern NBA talent.

    Leave a comment:


  • psrs1
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    Personally, I think the most likely scenario is:

    Re-sign Lowry to a big but sub-max deal (roughly 5/175M, maybe lower if Lowry is feeling generous).
    Re-sign Ibaka to a 5/100-120M deal.
    Re-sign Tucker to a 3/30M deal.
    Let Pat walk.
    Trade Joseph and Carroll into cap space with our 2017 pick and BeBe outgoing as asset cost. Something small and roughly valueless coming back.
    Spend some cash on mid-late 2nd rounders to draft a couple depth pieces. Spend part or all of the MLE (depending on exact amounts of the contracts above and other salary commitments) on a vet wing depth piece.

    Roster ends up like this:

    Lowry-Wright-VanVleet
    DeRozan-Powell-2nd rounder
    Tucker-MLE-Bruno
    Ibaka-Siakam-2nd rounder
    Valanciunas-Poeltl

    That dodges the tax and keeps most of the core together. And keeps the potential for those flexible small lineups with Ibaka at C and Tucker at PF, probably with bench backcourts of KL-Wright-Powell and Wright-DD-Powell, or the closing unit of Lowry-DD-Powell, while also maintaining the team's ability to play big and match up in that direction.
    Thanks for your analysis. Our bench will be thinner hopefully NP will be in contention for 6th man of year contention.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    psrs1 wrote: View Post
    DanH how do you MOST LIKELY see roster and cap playing out come first week of July? i.e. What will be our roster for next year within the confines of the cap ?
    Personally, I think the most likely scenario is:

    Re-sign Lowry to a big but sub-max deal (roughly 5/175M, maybe lower if Lowry is feeling generous).
    Re-sign Ibaka to a 5/100-120M deal.
    Re-sign Tucker to a 3/30M deal.
    Let Pat walk.
    Trade Joseph and Carroll into cap space with our 2017 pick and BeBe outgoing as asset cost. Something small and roughly valueless coming back.
    Spend some cash on mid-late 2nd rounders to draft a couple depth pieces. Spend part or all of the MLE (depending on exact amounts of the contracts above and other salary commitments) on a vet wing depth piece.

    Roster ends up like this:

    Lowry-Wright-VanVleet
    DeRozan-Powell-2nd rounder
    Tucker-MLE-Bruno
    Ibaka-Siakam-2nd rounder
    Valanciunas-Poeltl

    That dodges the tax and keeps most of the core together. And keeps the potential for those flexible small lineups with Ibaka at C and Tucker at PF, probably with bench backcourts of KL-Wright-Powell and Wright-DD-Powell, or the closing unit of Lowry-DD-Powell, while also maintaining the team's ability to play big and match up in that direction.

    Leave a comment:


  • psrs1
    replied
    DanH how do you MOST LIKELY see roster and cap playing out come first week of July? i.e. What will be our roster for next year within the confines of the cap ?

    Leave a comment:

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