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  • Wrote a thing in two parts to prep for free agency and specifically to prep for the Lowry decision. First part up now (more interesting second part up later today or tomorrow):

    https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/1/2...ary-cap-review
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • DanH wrote: View Post
      Wrote a thing in two parts to prep for free agency and specifically to prep for the Lowry decision. First part up now (more interesting second part up later today or tomorrow):

      https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/1/2...ary-cap-review
      Awesome stuff, as always Dan.



      Looking forward to reading tomorrow’s…

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      • Part 2!

        https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/2/2...ours-scenarios
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • Some attempts to find a landing spot for Dragic.

          https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/3/2...n-dragic-trade
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          • Any update on where we are cap wise? I heard we are pretty close to the tax.

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            • saints91 wrote: View Post
              Any update on where we are cap wise? I heard we are pretty close to the tax.
              This piece breaks down the current situation, though it is slightly out of date with some new salary numbers reported for Trent Jr making the rounds now.

              https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/7/2...ary-cap-update

              The update would be:

              13 NBA deals
              2 two-way deals
              133.7M against the cap (21.3M over)
              134.9M against the tax (1.75M under)

              That includes Trent's bonuses. Assumes Yuta and Wainwright make the team (their heavy guarantees suggest they will).

              A minimum deal for a non-draftee is 1.67M, so they no longer need to sign Banton as the 14th guy to fit everything.

              If they sign a non-draftee minimum they will be 78k short of the tax. If they sign Banton they will be ~800k short of the tax. Both with 14 guys, neither with room for a 15th guy.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • Trent's deal starts at 16M even now (17.28M, 18.56M following years), plus 250k in bonuses every year.
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                • Thanks DanH!

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                  • Quick summary of the short term outlook re: decisions in the upcoming off-season.

                    They have 114M committed to 10 guys. Have to add two minimum slots to that, so take 2M off the "cap room" and you have about 5M under the cap.

                    And if your cap room is under 10M, you just use the MLE and operate over the cap. Strongly suspect they find a way to bring back at least one of Thad and Boucher, and then spend the MLE on a bench piece. What will be interesting is whether they prioritize keeping those guys with term or minimizing term to not commit salary in future years when they will need money to re-sign Fred and Gary (and then Pascal and OG and Precious a year later, and then eventually Scottie).

                    The other thing they can do this off-season is talk extension with Fred and Pascal, who are eligible this off-season sometime.

                    Fred is signed for next year, and then has a player option for 22.8M the year after.

                    2022-23: $21.3M
                    2023-24: $22.8M (PO)

                    This summer, they can offer him an extension that would be 5 years in length, including the upcoming season he is already locked into, and the maximum they can offer would be this:

                    2022-23: $21.3M
                    2023-24: $25.5M
                    2024-25: $27.5M
                    2025-26: $29.6M
                    2026-27: $31.6M

                    Similarly with Pascal, he has the next two seasons already locked in, but can be signed to a deal with a max term of 5 years including those two years. Now, Pascal could wait a year, then be eligible for a supermax contract (depending on if he meets other criteria, like all-NBA selections), but for now this is what they can offer. His current deal:

                    2022-23: $35.4M
                    2023-24: $37.9M

                    And the max extension they can offer:

                    2022-23: $35.4M
                    2023-24: $37.9M
                    2024-25: $45.5M
                    2025-26: $49.1M
                    2026-27: $52.7M

                    I'd imagine with Pascal they'd be hoping for something less than that maximum extension, but maybe not if it helps avoid a true supermax a year later.

                    I think both extensions have to happen later in the off-season based on the timing of when they were signed but there's no impact on the current year cap anyway so no worries on that.

                    Keep in mind with some of those numbers: there will be a new TV deal for the 25-26 season, so the cap will jump. Even before then, the cap has been rising faster than projected post-COVID (negotiated minimum was 3%, but they've outrun that). So 30M and 50M will be different in a few years than they are now. Even with just the 3% minimum increases from here on out the cap will be 133M in 2025-26 without any extra TV revenue.
                    Last edited by DanH; Wed May 25, 2022, 09:08 AM.
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                    • Oh, cap's 122M, tax is 148M, so that leaves about 34M if they want to fill out the roster under the tax. That 34M spreads pretty nicely to a) a minimum deal for our 2nd round pick, b) an MLE signing, and c) about 10M a pop for Boucher and Thad. But term considerations could drive up the AAV for the two FAs.

                      Oh, and if they keep Brooks it's 115.8M to 11 guys. I assumed above they keep Banton but missed off Brooks. This also all assumes Svi opts into his PO.
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                      • DanH wrote: View Post
                        Quick summary of the short term outlook re: decisions in the upcoming off-season.

                        They have 114M committed to 10 guys. Have to add two minimum slots to that, so take 2M off the "cap room" and you have about 5M under the cap.

                        And if your cap room is under 10M, you just use the MLE and operate over the cap. Strongly suspect they find a way to bring back at least one of Thad and Boucher, and then spend the MLE on a bench piece. What will be interesting is whether they prioritize keeping those guys with term or minimizing term to not commit salary in future years when they will need money to re-sign Fred and Gary (and then Pascal and OG and Precious a year later, and then eventually Scottie).

                        The other thing they can do this off-season is talk extension with Fred and Pascal, who are eligible as soon as .

                        Fred is signed for next year, and then has a player option for 22.8M the year after.

                        2022-23: $21.3M
                        2023-24: $22.8M (PO)

                        This summer, they can offer him an extension that would be 5 years in length, including the upcoming season he is already locked into, and the maximum they can offer would be this:

                        2022-23: $21.3M
                        2023-24: $25.5M
                        2024-25: $27.5M
                        2025-26: $29.6M
                        2026-27: $31.6M

                        Similarly with Pascal, he has the next two seasons already locked in, but can be signed to a deal with a max term of 5 years including those two years. Now, Pascal could wait a year, then be eligible for a supermax contract (depending on if he meets other criteria, like all-NBA selections), but for now this is what they can offer. His current deal:

                        2022-23: $35.4M
                        2023-24: $37.9M

                        And the max extension they can offer:

                        2022-23: $35.4M
                        2023-24: $37.9M
                        2024-25: $45.5M
                        2025-26: $49.1M
                        2026-27: $52.7M

                        I'd imagine with Pascal they'd be hoping for something less than that maximum extension, but maybe not if it helps avoid a true supermax a year later.

                        I think both extensions have to happen later in the off-season based on the timing of when they were signed but there's no impact on the current year cap anyway so no worries on that.

                        Keep in mind with some of those numbers: there will be a new TV deal for the 25-26 season, so the cap will jump. Even before then, the cap has been rising faster than projected post-COVID (negotiated minimum was 3%, but they've outrun that). So 30M and 50M will be different in a few years than they are now. Even with just the 3% minimum increases from here on out the cap will be 133M in 2025-26 without any extra TV revenue.
                        Thanks Dan. Look forward to this every year.

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                        • DanH wrote: View Post
                          And if your cap room is under 10M, you just use the MLE and operate over the cap. Strongly suspect they find a way to bring back at least one of Thad and Boucher, and then spend the MLE on a bench piece. What will be interesting is whether they prioritize keeping those guys with term or minimizing term to not commit salary in future years when they will need money to re-sign Fred and Gary (and then Pascal and OG and Precious a year later, and then eventually Scottie).
                          I feel like the market certainly may have something interesting for Chris. I hope we can retain him at a mutually agreeable cost.

                          Thad though -- I'm curious about what his market value will look like. Not sure if you're suggesting we'd pay him 10M for the year, potentially? On one hand, he played well enough for us to warrant something reasonable going forward. That said... he'll be, what, 33? And he was strictly riding the bench for the Spurs before coming here... Who out there is gonna pay a pile of money for him? I hope we can bring him back.. I also hope we don't egregiously overpay him though. Be very interested to see where his price tag lands...

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                          • Just putting this here so I can find it easier later:

                            Precious is one year ahead of Barnes. OG decision is at the same time as Pascal. Trent at the same time as Fred.

                            Agree they either need to let someone walk, get budget deals on everybody (unlikely with the way the Raps like to operate), trade someone ahead of time, or trade them after the fact once Scottie's raise kicks in.

                            Lots of planning involved.

                            Cap is hard to project at this point, but let's be pessimistic and assume only 3% growth from now to there (could be like 50% depending how the TV deals go). That's a 133M cap, 162M tax.

                            If we just take everybody's latest salary as a starting point, we have this:

                            Pascal 38M
                            Fred 23M
                            Trent 20M
                            OG 19M
                            Scottie 33M max
                            Precious ?

                            Ignoring everyone else for now, the first 5 guys there make 132M. So eat up the cap. There are probably raises in there. Pascal maybe not, let's leave him, he might even decrease but let's leave him flat. Give everyone else the same % of the cap they signed last time, but with a 25% boost in pay, and give Precious his cap hold plus 25% and you get this:

                            Pascal 38M
                            Fred 29M
                            Trent 24M
                            OG 24M
                            Scottie 33M max
                            Precious 16M

                            That's 164M. Add 8 vet minimum salaries (assume any 2nd round signings are offset by any 1sts in the meantime) and you end up at 180M, about 18M into the tax. So, yeah, can fit 5 guys barely under the tax, but for the 6th you are going into the tax by basically what they cost.

                            Now, this is with Scottie approaching his early prime and everyone else solidly prime or late prime, so it might be a win-now-or-go-home scenario for this core in any case, so tax might be OK. So it's not a disaster. But it's definitely something worth thinking about, especially if you project bigger raises than I've put here for these players.
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                            • If we want to win a championship in the next 3 years, we need a bonafied star, not a bunch of plus player/borderline all stars unfortunately. I would keep scottie/precious and pascal for that run. I think fred/Trent/OG expendable on a trade for a true star. Because you really need to convert Fred/trent/OG salary into 1 superstar and a few role players making 10-15 mill. Assuming Pascal is still a borderline allstar, Scottie a true all star and Precious at least a plus starter. That bonafied superstar with role players would put us over the top. I think in the next year will be a deciding one as Masai will need to make a decision who to offload to get our superstar. I feel like his plan to develop this core to see which ones fit best for his next move. I feel like if we see growth from precious and scottie, our full roster will fight for a top 4 seed. Chicago is just not a contender and brooklyn who knows. Boston, Miami, bucks and phil are clear cream of the crop next season.

                              Will be interesting who they sign with their cap space. I don't think masai trades for gobert. He just doesn't move the needle enough. You really only do that for a superstar. Gobert really is just too one sided for the money you're gonna pay him.

                              Love Pascal but gonna need to see him put up closer to 25/9/7 shooting 50/36/80 before I'm comfortable giving him another Max extension. Even then I think hes a 1B on a championship team. But that would bring us closer. For Raps to get out of 1st round he really needs to make that push. My estimates for next season are:

                              Pascal : 24/8/6
                              Fred: 20/4/7
                              Trent: 16/2/3
                              OG: 19/5/3
                              Scottie: 18/9/4
                              Precious: 12/8/1

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                              • Just caught an error in the max extension I had listed for Pascal. Way too high, think I grabbed the 10 year vet extension instead of the 7-9 year vet. If he waits a year he can get something like the above if he qualifies for the early supermax, but this summer he can do the following:

                                His current deal:

                                2022-23: $35.4M
                                2023-24: $37.9M

                                And the max extension they can offer:

                                2022-23: $35.4M
                                2023-24: $37.9M
                                2024-25: $39.8M
                                2025-26: $43.0M
                                2026-27: $46.2M
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