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Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

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  • Notes on MLE and current status after draft:

    What I will be fascinated by is whether the Raptors make offers with term. They have Boucher and Thad to re-sign, and the MLE to use. They'll probably try to use a slice of the MLE to give Koloko three years. But with salaries crunching over the next few years, maybe they prioritize keeping flexibility in future years and try for one year deals.

    Now, a one year deal for a guy like Boucher or Thad would mean they get a no trade clause, which is not great for trade flexibility at the deadline, so they'd want to be able to buy a 2nd unguaranteed season. They'd need to pay more to get them without term, let alone with that second year unguaranteed. Similarly, if they want a one year deal for their MLE signing, you aren't getting a 9M player if you won't give term on the deal. Maybe that deal is small enough that you can fit it into the longer term salary structure, but even then if you are offering slightly sub-MLE you might get outbid.

    Lots to consider.

    But, assuming they offer term at the MLE or near to it, some interesting names (looking for shooting and defence and a little playmaking if possible at the wing or guard spot):

    Gary Harris
    Delon Wright
    Kyle Anderson
    Tyus Jones
    Bruce Brown Jr
    Ricky Rubio (no idea what his market will be like after that injury, a guy who might be open to a 1 year MLE)
    Nic Batum
    Malik Monk would be OK but not sure he fits the defensive ethos

    A lot of those guys will end up priced out of our range regardless of term but that's why it's not a list of one.

    The other thing is roster spots.

    Raps have 13 guys on the roster assuming Boucher and Thad are back (and they don't waive Brooks or Banton). They also have Champagnie, who I suspect is beyond a two-way now, so will need a spot, and Koloko of course, so that's 15. Someone needs to not be there if they are spending the MLE. Cutting Svi would do it.

    Final consideration, pretty sure they won't be entering the tax this year, and right now (with just Koloko assumed at the minimum) they have 12 guys taking them to a tax total of 117.3M. Tax line is at 148.3M, leaving them almost exactly 31M for the final three spots. Four spots if they cut Svi.

    If they cut Svi and give Champagnie a minimum deal, that's 29M left for Boucher, Thad and MLE guy. If you give all three term that is probably enough. If you try to stick to one year deals, you probably lose one of Boucher or Thad. But we'll see.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • Wrote a thing on future considerations when thinking about signings this offseason:

      https://www.raptorshq.com/2022/6/28/...in-free-agency

      And even got invited on a podcast, so listen in before the podcast goes under, I'm sure to have sunk them.

      https://pod.link/1456611362
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • I've got the Raps with, assuming Koloko signs for the minimum and the worst case cuts re: guarantee and salary (Banton and Champagnie cut, which seems exceedingly unlikely), a total of 145.4M, with a tax line of 150.3M. So plenty of room to drop Svi (1.9M) and keep an extra cut.

        More likely Wilson (who is a more expensive contract) is the cut and Brooks takes Svi's spot. If that more likely scenario takes place, the total is 146.1M. Way more wiggle room than last season.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • Any new thoughts based on the salary cap increase?

          Is there a salary crunch crisis on the horizon?

          Or could this allow us to work towards keeping everybody in the coming years?

          What. Is. The Endgame?



          (Do give me hope.)

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          • Next season's (2023-24) salary cap seems to be going up by an extra 1M compared to expected. Every little bit helps, but nothing game changing there.

            That said, as I've noted before, we can likely re-sign our key guys without going into the tax, so long as they aren't too ridiculous in price.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • Does anything change if Pascal becomes eligible for the next level of super max? He needs one more all nba selection right?

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              • Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
                Does anything change if Pascal becomes eligible for the next level of super max? He needs one more all nba selection right?
                Well, if Pascal gets the early eligibility, we can technically offer him 5% more. Yes, making all-NBA this year or next would do it (depending on if we are talking an extension this summer or re-signing the following summer). But only we can offer that 5% more, so it would only impact internal negotiations, not market value.
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                • Re-signing both Fred and Gary and continuing to accumulate assets seems like the most logical outcome then it seems

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                  • Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
                    Re-signing both Fred and Gary and continuing to accumulate assets seems like the most logical outcome then it seems
                    It's quite likely, IMO. But hardly a guarantee. Could definitely see them trading one or the other if they are concerned their ask will be too high and they'll end up too close to the tax.
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                    • DanH wrote: View Post

                      It's quite likely, IMO. But hardly a guarantee. Could definitely see them trading one or the other if they are concerned their ask will be too high and they'll end up too close to the tax.
                      Yeah definitely seems like the asking price for those two is the main thing. Fred we know is gonna be higher than 4/114 or he would’ve signed by now and Gary it’s just wide open

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                      • Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post

                        Yeah definitely seems like the asking price for those two is the main thing. Fred we know is gonna be higher than 4/114 or he would’ve signed by now and Gary it’s just wide open
                        Well, after this recent performance from Fred it sure seems like even that 4/114 is hardly a guarantee. Have to see how the rest of the season goes, but that offer might not even be on the table right now from the Raps. Fred has hardly been a free agency darling before so they could get lucky with the market (similar logic suggests his trade value is likely not where they'd like it if they were to move him).

                        Gary I have no idea how to project. He's dropped off from last season in his impact stats, and his raw stats are hardly eye popping.

                        In any case, I think the decision might be more about the team construct rather than the salary situation at this point - no idea where Masai and Bobby's heads are at, but they might not be interested in keeping this core together anyway (even if there are some no brainer keepers in Pascal, OG and Scottie).
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                        • DanH wrote: View Post

                          Well, after this recent performance from Fred it sure seems like even that 4/114 is hardly a guarantee. Have to see how the rest of the season goes, but that offer might not even be on the table right now from the Raps. Fred has hardly been a free agency darling before so they could get lucky with the market (similar logic suggests his trade value is likely not where they'd like it if they were to move him).

                          Gary I have no idea how to project. He's dropped off from last season in his impact stats, and his raw stats are hardly eye popping.

                          In any case, I think the decision might be more about the team construct rather than the salary situation at this point - no idea where Masai and Bobby's heads are at, but they might not be interested in keeping this core together anyway (even if there are some no brainer keepers in Pascal, OG and Scottie).
                          I missed a month of basketball, so I haven't seen what's happened with the gameplay until recently, but given that we're currently sitting 6th last in the league, have Fred and Gary on expiring contracts (of team control - player option), isn't there something to be said for trading Fred and Gary for the best package of value possible, which would probably ensure that we'd have a top 5-10 pick in what appears to be a very good draft class?

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                          • big boi wrote: View Post

                            I missed a month of basketball, so I haven't seen what's happened with the gameplay until recently, but given that we're currently sitting 6th last in the league, have Fred and Gary on expiring contracts (of team control - player option), isn't there something to be said for trading Fred and Gary for the best package of value possible, which would probably ensure that we'd have a top 5-10 pick in what appears to be a very good draft class?
                            Sure. There's also something to be said for keeping talent when you have it. For that reason I suspect the more likely outcome is trading one of the two to avoid concurrent salary negotiations that could drive us into the tax, but keep the other.

                            As for the high pick, if they want to go that direction, there are ways to do that without trading the talent off the team. Fred for example is clearly hurt to some degree and could be shut down for a long while, and if Trent were traded and Fred sitting, the lack of shooting would pretty much guarantee a lot more losses even if some other factors brought our actual wins back up to near our expected wins (our point differential is still that of a ~.500 team). Meaning we have a bunch of teams right in front of us that we will naturally expect to play worse than us going forward, so even if we actively try to get worse, we'll be in a footrace and getting into the top 5 pick range is no guarantee.
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                            • Don’t see us being a bottom 5 team no matter what this season if Siakam/Barnes/OG are playing. Those 3 alone are enough talent to win you a few games and we’d end up in the 6-10 range I think

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                              • Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
                                Don’t see us being a bottom 5 team no matter what this season if Siakam/Barnes/OG are playing. Those 3 alone are enough talent to win you a few games and we’d end up in the 6-10 range I think
                                Well, as we've seen, the 6-10 range you have a decent shot at jumping up. But there are a lot of teams grouped closely together in that 6-10 range, so it wouldn't take much to slip up to the 11-14 range, which is where you don't want to be, really.
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