Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[DanH]

Now that Kelly is extended, the Raps currently project to have at about 28M in cap space, if they let Gary and Nwora walk, opt out of Brown, but keep Quickley's cap hold to re-sign him.

If they luck into the top 4 and keep their draft pick, that number would drop by 8-11.5M, depending on the exact pick they land.

Worth noting there is also the room MLE (about 8M) they can use after using cap room. So smaller re-signs like a Nwora could be put off by renouncing his rights and then just using that exception to sign him after using cap room. But a guy like Gary I would expect to be too expensive to keep without using up some cap space.

[SkywalkerAC]

At the deadline we kept two guys with expiring contracts - Gary and Brown. I don't know why people would assume we won't just go with the cap space and sign a guy or two that better fit what we're trying to do, or facilitate some immediate cap relief for tax teams and pick up assets that way. Maybe it makes sense to sign Gary and pick up Brown's option and trade him (e.g. at the draft) but cap space seems like a viable route as well.

[SkywalkerAC]

Thanks Dan. Looks like we’ll have 25-30 mill in cap space to spread around (hard to imagine a major star/starting lineup upgrade) on some winning vets.

[DanH]

So...how much cap space are we looking at this season (assuming we decline Bruce's option)? And will we have this kind of room to swing for it again any time soon?

Right now, assuming we decline Brown, but keep Quickley's cap hold on the books (to use cap room before re-signing him), and otherwise let our free agents walk (Gary, Nwora, Olynyk), we would have:

$93.5M committed to 8 players (including Quickley and his hold)
Another ~4M for the Pacers draft pick depending on where they land
Another minimum salary for our 2nd rounder
And then two more minimum salary slot cap holds to fill out the roster

That makes 101M committed and ~40M in cap room (141M projected salary cap).

The max RFA contract is 35.25M. Max offer for a 7-9 year player (typical UFA) is 42.3M.

This all assumes we don't keep our own pick. If we end up in the 1-6 range, that's an additional cap hit of 7.5M-12.5M, replacing a minimum cap hold of 1.2M. So 6.3M to 11.3M less cap space.

For future years, need to assume some stuff. Let's say we lose the pick this year, and our only long term re-sign this year is Quickley, at a starting salary of 23M, then next summer (2025) we have:

122.2M for 6 players (Scottie, Jak, IQ, RJ, Gradey, Agbaji)
Another ~4M or so for the Pacers pick from this upcoming draft
A 2nd year minimum salary for the Detroit pick in this draft
Some amount set aside for our own pick in 2025 (say, 10th overall pick, $6M)

That's 138.5M in a 155M cap. Leaves 16.6M. MLE is 14.1M for reference.

So unless we use cap space this summer, probably best to plan to be over the cap until after the Scottie Barnes era is over (which is hopefully a really long time from now).

[SkywalkerAC]

So...how much cap space are we looking at this season (assuming we decline Bruce's option)? And will we have this kind of room to swing for it again any time soon?

[DanH]

Was Weezy on a (non-guaranteed) 2-way (that's what they said in some Daily Hive article)? Or is there a chance we retain him on a 2-way?

He was not on a 2-way. He was on a NG regular NBA contract.

I think we could sign him to a 2-way but whether he would want that I'm not sure.

[SkywalkerAC]

Was Weezy on a (non-guaranteed) 2-way (that's what they said in some Daily Hive article)? Or is there a chance we retain him on a 2-way?

[DanH]

Thanks for this.
So let's say Fred signs in Houston and leaves for nothing. Assuming we keep Jak are we looking at basically just the mid level exception so like 12 mill?
Does Jak and Grady have a lower cap hold that buys us some flexibility?

Yeah, no scenario where we have any meaningful cap space. MLE if we lose one of the FAs.

[Rudy Bargnani]

GTJ opts in.

For what it's worth, I've now got the Raps with about 42M in wiggle room under the tax line (assuming that they have their 13th pick and minimums signed besides their two FAs) to fit Fred and Jak.

If you assume that's 17M and 25M starting salaries, and max raises over the term, that could be the following deals, for Jak and Fred respectively:
3 year deals: 18.4M AAV, 27M AAV
4 year deals: 19M AAV, 28M AAV
5 year deals: 19.7M AAV, 29M AAV

Pretty close, I think! If those numbers fall short, and you need to go a little higher, you can trade a bench piece away for lesser or no salary, or waive and stretch a bench piece (though I wouldn't recommend that one). I'd think a Boucher or OPJ trade is most likely.

For both players, the key may be whether the Raps offer that longer term, not only to be able to afford a larger AAV on the same first year salary, but also to top any slightly higher AAV offers with more total guaranteed money.

Thanks for this.
So let's say Fred signs in Houston and leaves for nothing. Assuming we keep Jak are we looking at basically just the mid level exception so like 12 mill?
Does Jak and Grady have a lower cap hold that buys us some flexibility?

[DanH]

That would be a case of Betting on Yourself gone wrong…. if you can call being forced to take $109M a bad thing. Lol.

That's why it's a bet. But yeah, hardly a terrible fate. Those bets have gone far worse for other players.

[golden]

Because he had a down year after they decided to forego the extension?

He wanted to see what was out there. If there's no 114M out there for him, why would he be stuck on that number?

That would be a case of Betting on Yourself gone wrong…. if you can call being forced to take $109M a bad thing. Lol.

[DanH]

Fred turned down a $114.5M extension. Why would he now sign for $109M?

Because he had a down year after they decided to forego the extension?

He wanted to see what was out there. If there's no 114M out there for him, why would he be stuck on that number?

[golden]

GTJ opts in.

For what it's worth, I've now got the Raps with about 42M in wiggle room under the tax line (assuming that they have their 13th pick and minimums signed besides their two FAs) to fit Fred and Jak.

If you assume that's 17M and 25M starting salaries, and max raises over the term, that could be the following deals, for Jak and Fred respectively:
3 year deals: 18.4M AAV, 27M AAV
4 year deals: 19M AAV, 28M AAV
5 year deals: 19.7M AAV, 29M AAV

Pretty close, I think! If those numbers fall short, and you need to go a little higher, you can trade a bench piece away for lesser or no salary, or waive and stretch a bench piece (though I wouldn't recommend that one). I'd think a Boucher or OPJ trade is most likely.

For both players, the key may be whether the Raps offer that longer term, not only to be able to afford a larger AAV on the same first year salary, but also to top any slightly higher AAV offers with more total guaranteed money.

Fred turned down a $114.5M extension. Why would he now sign for $109M?

[DanH]

GTJ opts in.

For what it's worth, I've now got the Raps with about 42M in wiggle room under the tax line (assuming that they have their 13th pick and minimums signed besides their two FAs) to fit Fred and Jak.

If you assume that's 17M and 25M starting salaries, and max raises over the term, that could be the following deals, for Jak and Fred respectively:
3 year deals: 18.4M AAV, 27M AAV
4 year deals: 19M AAV, 28M AAV
5 year deals: 19.7M AAV, 29M AAV

Pretty close, I think! If those numbers fall short, and you need to go a little higher, you can trade a bench piece away for lesser or no salary, or waive and stretch a bench piece (though I wouldn't recommend that one). I'd think a Boucher or OPJ trade is most likely.

For both players, the key may be whether the Raps offer that longer term, not only to be able to afford a larger AAV on the same first year salary, but also to top any slightly higher AAV offers with more total guaranteed money.

[Puffer]

Some rumours going around and info about the pieces involved:

Portland trading #3 pick, maybe.

#3 pick will make 9.6M. This will matter for tax calcs but won't count in the trade math.
Pascal makes 37.9M, so Portland would need to send at least 30.23M in outgoing salary to match.
OG makes 18.6M, so Portland would need to send at least 14.83M.
Portland has an 8M TPE, so could take back Otto or Thad or a prospect (vet seems more likely) without needing to match salary.

Key Portland salaries:
Simons 24.1M
Nurk 16.9M
Sharpe 6.3M
Little 6.3M
Knox 3M
Johnson 2.8M

Portland will almost certainly want to operate over the cap so they can retain Jerami Grant, so salary matching will be important. Probably want to be a tax team in their final throw of the dice with Dame.

Most obvious combinations are Simons plus one or Little or Sharpe to be able to match Pascal, or just Simons to match OG. But I bet they lean more to including Nurk and paying more prospect price to get the Raps to eat his years and be able to keep Simons for their push towards contention. So, Nurk and both Sharpe and Little as a match for Pascal (plus 3 and whatever other picks are needed), or just Nurk to match OG (plus whatever assets are needed, probably #3 plus either one of Sharpe/Little or a future pick).

Houston trading #4 pick, maybe.

#4 pick will make 8.7M, again not used in trade math.
Houston is easier, since they project to be way under the cap, so even with them wanting to sign Harden they can make pretty much any trade work adding up to like 25M or more.

Key Houston salaries:
KPJ 15.9M
Jalen Green 9.9M
Smith Jr 9.3M
Tate 6.5M
Eason 3.5M
I dunno, a whole bunch more prospect types in the 2-3M range.

No real obvious constructions here but real easy to make anything work.

Thanks Dan. This helps clear the smoke a little.