Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[GOLDBLUM]

And if your cap room is under 10M, you just use the MLE and operate over the cap. Strongly suspect they find a way to bring back at least one of Thad and Boucher, and then spend the MLE on a bench piece. What will be interesting is whether they prioritize keeping those guys with term or minimizing term to not commit salary in future years when they will need money to re-sign Fred and Gary (and then Pascal and OG and Precious a year later, and then eventually Scottie).

I feel like the market certainly may have something interesting for Chris. I hope we can retain him at a mutually agreeable cost.

Thad though -- I'm curious about what his market value will look like. Not sure if you're suggesting we'd pay him 10M for the year, potentially? On one hand, he played well enough for us to warrant something reasonable going forward. That said... he'll be, what, 33? And he was strictly riding the bench for the Spurs before coming here... Who out there is gonna pay a pile of money for him? I hope we can bring him back.. I also hope we don't egregiously overpay him though. Be very interested to see where his price tag lands...

[Puffer]

Quick summary of the short term outlook re: decisions in the upcoming off-season.

They have 114M committed to 10 guys. Have to add two minimum slots to that, so take 2M off the "cap room" and you have about 5M under the cap.

And if your cap room is under 10M, you just use the MLE and operate over the cap. Strongly suspect they find a way to bring back at least one of Thad and Boucher, and then spend the MLE on a bench piece. What will be interesting is whether they prioritize keeping those guys with term or minimizing term to not commit salary in future years when they will need money to re-sign Fred and Gary (and then Pascal and OG and Precious a year later, and then eventually Scottie).

The other thing they can do this off-season is talk extension with Fred and Pascal, who are eligible as soon as .

Fred is signed for next year, and then has a player option for 22.8M the year after.

2022-23: $21.3M
2023-24: $22.8M (PO)

This summer, they can offer him an extension that would be 5 years in length, including the upcoming season he is already locked into, and the maximum they can offer would be this:

2022-23: $21.3M
2023-24: $25.5M
2024-25: $27.5M
2025-26: $29.6M
2026-27: $31.6M

Similarly with Pascal, he has the next two seasons already locked in, but can be signed to a deal with a max term of 5 years including those two years. Now, Pascal could wait a year, then be eligible for a supermax contract (depending on if he meets other criteria, like all-NBA selections), but for now this is what they can offer. His current deal:

2022-23: $35.4M
2023-24: $37.9M

And the max extension they can offer:

2022-23: $35.4M
2023-24: $37.9M
2024-25: $45.5M
2025-26: $49.1M
2026-27: $52.7M

I'd imagine with Pascal they'd be hoping for something less than that maximum extension, but maybe not if it helps avoid a true supermax a year later.

I think both extensions have to happen later in the off-season based on the timing of when they were signed but there's no impact on the current year cap anyway so no worries on that.

Keep in mind with some of those numbers: there will be a new TV deal for the 25-26 season, so the cap will jump. Even before then, the cap has been rising faster than projected post-COVID (negotiated minimum was 3%, but they've outrun that). So 30M and 50M will be different in a few years than they are now. Even with just the 3% minimum increases from here on out the cap will be 133M in 2025-26 without any extra TV revenue.

Thanks Dan. Look forward to this every year.

[DanH]

Oh, cap's 122M, tax is 148M, so that leaves about 34M if they want to fill out the roster under the tax. That 34M spreads pretty nicely to a) a minimum deal for our 2nd round pick, b) an MLE signing, and c) about 10M a pop for Boucher and Thad. But term considerations could drive up the AAV for the two FAs.

Oh, and if they keep Brooks it's 115.8M to 11 guys. I assumed above they keep Banton but missed off Brooks. This also all assumes Svi opts into his PO.

[DanH]

Quick summary of the short term outlook re: decisions in the upcoming off-season.

They have 114M committed to 10 guys. Have to add two minimum slots to that, so take 2M off the "cap room" and you have about 5M under the cap.

And if your cap room is under 10M, you just use the MLE and operate over the cap. Strongly suspect they find a way to bring back at least one of Thad and Boucher, and then spend the MLE on a bench piece. What will be interesting is whether they prioritize keeping those guys with term or minimizing term to not commit salary in future years when they will need money to re-sign Fred and Gary (and then Pascal and OG and Precious a year later, and then eventually Scottie).

The other thing they can do this off-season is talk extension with Fred and Pascal, who are eligible this off-season sometime.

Fred is signed for next year, and then has a player option for 22.8M the year after.

2022-23: $21.3M
2023-24: $22.8M (PO)

This summer, they can offer him an extension that would be 5 years in length, including the upcoming season he is already locked into, and the maximum they can offer would be this:

2022-23: $21.3M
2023-24: $25.5M
2024-25: $27.5M
2025-26: $29.6M
2026-27: $31.6M

Similarly with Pascal, he has the next two seasons already locked in, but can be signed to a deal with a max term of 5 years including those two years. Now, Pascal could wait a year, then be eligible for a supermax contract (depending on if he meets other criteria, like all-NBA selections), but for now this is what they can offer. His current deal:

2022-23: $35.4M
2023-24: $37.9M

And the max extension they can offer:

2022-23: $35.4M
2023-24: $37.9M
2024-25: $45.5M
2025-26: $49.1M
2026-27: $52.7M

I'd imagine with Pascal they'd be hoping for something less than that maximum extension, but maybe not if it helps avoid a true supermax a year later.

I think both extensions have to happen later in the off-season based on the timing of when they were signed but there's no impact on the current year cap anyway so no worries on that.

Keep in mind with some of those numbers: there will be a new TV deal for the 25-26 season, so the cap will jump. Even before then, the cap has been rising faster than projected post-COVID (negotiated minimum was 3%, but they've outrun that). So 30M and 50M will be different in a few years than they are now. Even with just the 3% minimum increases from here on out the cap will be 133M in 2025-26 without any extra TV revenue.

[saints91]

Thanks DanH!

[DanH]

Trent's deal starts at 16M even now (17.28M, 18.56M following years), plus 250k in bonuses every year.

[DanH]

Any update on where we are cap wise? I heard we are pretty close to the tax.

This piece breaks down the current situation, though it is slightly out of date with some new salary numbers reported for Trent Jr making the rounds now.

https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/7/2...ary-cap-update

The update would be:

13 NBA deals
2 two-way deals
133.7M against the cap (21.3M over)
134.9M against the tax (1.75M under)

That includes Trent's bonuses. Assumes Yuta and Wainwright make the team (their heavy guarantees suggest they will).

A minimum deal for a non-draftee is 1.67M, so they no longer need to sign Banton as the 14th guy to fit everything.

If they sign a non-draftee minimum they will be 78k short of the tax. If they sign Banton they will be ~800k short of the tax. Both with 14 guys, neither with room for a 15th guy.

[saints91]

Any update on where we are cap wise? I heard we are pretty close to the tax.

[DanH]

Some attempts to find a landing spot for Dragic.

https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/3/2...n-dragic-trade

[DanH]

Part 2!

https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/2/2...ours-scenarios

[GOLDBLUM]

Wrote a thing in two parts to prep for free agency and specifically to prep for the Lowry decision. First part up now (more interesting second part up later today or tomorrow):

https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/1/2...ary-cap-review

Awesome stuff, as always Dan.



Looking forward to reading tomorrow’s…

[DanH]

Wrote a thing in two parts to prep for free agency and specifically to prep for the Lowry decision. First part up now (more interesting second part up later today or tomorrow):

https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/8/1/2...ary-cap-review

[DanH]

Quick summary of potential cap room this summer from other threads:

Keeping Fred, OG, Pascal, Flynn, Boucher, 4th pick, Trent's rights, $18.3M in cap room. Goes to $21.4M if we do the shenanigans with Trent.

Drop Boucher and it becomes $24.4M in room, and up to $27.5M with the Trent shenanigans.

Worth noting those amounts work out to, assuming a 4 year offer:
$18.3M => 4/78.7M, 19.7M AAV
$21.4M => 4/92.0M, 23.0M AAV
$24.4M => 4/104.9M, 26.2M AAV
$27.5M => 4/118.3M, 29.6M AAV

[DanH]

Not much changed for this summer from the deadline. Except they can still have a solid chunk of cap space while keeping GTJ where they couldn't with Norm.

If they operate over the cap then nothing has changed.

I wrote a piece on RHQ that goes deep on all the trades and the Lowry non-trade.

https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/3/26/...future-options

[SkywalkerAC]

So...how we looking now?