Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[DanH]

Was Weezy on a (non-guaranteed) 2-way (that's what they said in some Daily Hive article)? Or is there a chance we retain him on a 2-way?

He was not on a 2-way. He was on a NG regular NBA contract.

I think we could sign him to a 2-way but whether he would want that I'm not sure.

[SkywalkerAC]

Was Weezy on a (non-guaranteed) 2-way (that's what they said in some Daily Hive article)? Or is there a chance we retain him on a 2-way?

[DanH]

Thanks for this.
So let's say Fred signs in Houston and leaves for nothing. Assuming we keep Jak are we looking at basically just the mid level exception so like 12 mill?
Does Jak and Grady have a lower cap hold that buys us some flexibility?

Yeah, no scenario where we have any meaningful cap space. MLE if we lose one of the FAs.

[Rudy Bargnani]

GTJ opts in.

For what it's worth, I've now got the Raps with about 42M in wiggle room under the tax line (assuming that they have their 13th pick and minimums signed besides their two FAs) to fit Fred and Jak.

If you assume that's 17M and 25M starting salaries, and max raises over the term, that could be the following deals, for Jak and Fred respectively:
3 year deals: 18.4M AAV, 27M AAV
4 year deals: 19M AAV, 28M AAV
5 year deals: 19.7M AAV, 29M AAV

Pretty close, I think! If those numbers fall short, and you need to go a little higher, you can trade a bench piece away for lesser or no salary, or waive and stretch a bench piece (though I wouldn't recommend that one). I'd think a Boucher or OPJ trade is most likely.

For both players, the key may be whether the Raps offer that longer term, not only to be able to afford a larger AAV on the same first year salary, but also to top any slightly higher AAV offers with more total guaranteed money.

Thanks for this.
So let's say Fred signs in Houston and leaves for nothing. Assuming we keep Jak are we looking at basically just the mid level exception so like 12 mill?
Does Jak and Grady have a lower cap hold that buys us some flexibility?

[DanH]

That would be a case of Betting on Yourself gone wrong…. if you can call being forced to take $109M a bad thing. Lol.

That's why it's a bet. But yeah, hardly a terrible fate. Those bets have gone far worse for other players.

[golden]

Because he had a down year after they decided to forego the extension?

He wanted to see what was out there. If there's no 114M out there for him, why would he be stuck on that number?

That would be a case of Betting on Yourself gone wrong…. if you can call being forced to take $109M a bad thing. Lol.

[DanH]

Fred turned down a $114.5M extension. Why would he now sign for $109M?

Because he had a down year after they decided to forego the extension?

He wanted to see what was out there. If there's no 114M out there for him, why would he be stuck on that number?

[golden]

GTJ opts in.

For what it's worth, I've now got the Raps with about 42M in wiggle room under the tax line (assuming that they have their 13th pick and minimums signed besides their two FAs) to fit Fred and Jak.

If you assume that's 17M and 25M starting salaries, and max raises over the term, that could be the following deals, for Jak and Fred respectively:
3 year deals: 18.4M AAV, 27M AAV
4 year deals: 19M AAV, 28M AAV
5 year deals: 19.7M AAV, 29M AAV

Pretty close, I think! If those numbers fall short, and you need to go a little higher, you can trade a bench piece away for lesser or no salary, or waive and stretch a bench piece (though I wouldn't recommend that one). I'd think a Boucher or OPJ trade is most likely.

For both players, the key may be whether the Raps offer that longer term, not only to be able to afford a larger AAV on the same first year salary, but also to top any slightly higher AAV offers with more total guaranteed money.

Fred turned down a $114.5M extension. Why would he now sign for $109M?

[DanH]

GTJ opts in.

For what it's worth, I've now got the Raps with about 42M in wiggle room under the tax line (assuming that they have their 13th pick and minimums signed besides their two FAs) to fit Fred and Jak.

If you assume that's 17M and 25M starting salaries, and max raises over the term, that could be the following deals, for Jak and Fred respectively:
3 year deals: 18.4M AAV, 27M AAV
4 year deals: 19M AAV, 28M AAV
5 year deals: 19.7M AAV, 29M AAV

Pretty close, I think! If those numbers fall short, and you need to go a little higher, you can trade a bench piece away for lesser or no salary, or waive and stretch a bench piece (though I wouldn't recommend that one). I'd think a Boucher or OPJ trade is most likely.

For both players, the key may be whether the Raps offer that longer term, not only to be able to afford a larger AAV on the same first year salary, but also to top any slightly higher AAV offers with more total guaranteed money.

[Puffer]

Some rumours going around and info about the pieces involved:

Portland trading #3 pick, maybe.

#3 pick will make 9.6M. This will matter for tax calcs but won't count in the trade math.
Pascal makes 37.9M, so Portland would need to send at least 30.23M in outgoing salary to match.
OG makes 18.6M, so Portland would need to send at least 14.83M.
Portland has an 8M TPE, so could take back Otto or Thad or a prospect (vet seems more likely) without needing to match salary.

Key Portland salaries:
Simons 24.1M
Nurk 16.9M
Sharpe 6.3M
Little 6.3M
Knox 3M
Johnson 2.8M

Portland will almost certainly want to operate over the cap so they can retain Jerami Grant, so salary matching will be important. Probably want to be a tax team in their final throw of the dice with Dame.

Most obvious combinations are Simons plus one or Little or Sharpe to be able to match Pascal, or just Simons to match OG. But I bet they lean more to including Nurk and paying more prospect price to get the Raps to eat his years and be able to keep Simons for their push towards contention. So, Nurk and both Sharpe and Little as a match for Pascal (plus 3 and whatever other picks are needed), or just Nurk to match OG (plus whatever assets are needed, probably #3 plus either one of Sharpe/Little or a future pick).

Houston trading #4 pick, maybe.

#4 pick will make 8.7M, again not used in trade math.
Houston is easier, since they project to be way under the cap, so even with them wanting to sign Harden they can make pretty much any trade work adding up to like 25M or more.

Key Houston salaries:
KPJ 15.9M
Jalen Green 9.9M
Smith Jr 9.3M
Tate 6.5M
Eason 3.5M
I dunno, a whole bunch more prospect types in the 2-3M range.

No real obvious constructions here but real easy to make anything work.

Thanks Dan. This helps clear the smoke a little.

[DanH]

Some rumours going around and info about the pieces involved:

Portland trading #3 pick, maybe.

#3 pick will make 9.6M. This will matter for tax calcs but won't count in the trade math.
Pascal makes 37.9M, so Portland would need to send at least 30.23M in outgoing salary to match.
OG makes 18.6M, so Portland would need to send at least 14.83M.
Portland has an 8M TPE, so could take back Otto or Thad or a prospect (vet seems more likely) without needing to match salary.

Key Portland salaries:
Simons 24.1M
Nurk 16.9M
Sharpe 6.3M
Little 6.3M
Knox 3M
Johnson 2.8M

Portland will almost certainly want to operate over the cap so they can retain Jerami Grant, so salary matching will be important. Probably want to be a tax team in their final throw of the dice with Dame.

Most obvious combinations are Simons plus one or Little or Sharpe to be able to match Pascal, or just Simons to match OG. But I bet they lean more to including Nurk and paying more prospect price to get the Raps to eat his years and be able to keep Simons for their push towards contention. So, Nurk and both Sharpe and Little as a match for Pascal (plus 3 and whatever other picks are needed), or just Nurk to match OG (plus whatever assets are needed, probably #3 plus either one of Sharpe/Little or a future pick).

Houston trading #4 pick, maybe.

#4 pick will make 8.7M, again not used in trade math.
Houston is easier, since they project to be way under the cap, so even with them wanting to sign Harden they can make pretty much any trade work adding up to like 25M or more.

Key Houston salaries:
KPJ 15.9M
Jalen Green 9.9M
Smith Jr 9.3M
Tate 6.5M
Eason 3.5M
I dunno, a whole bunch more prospect types in the 2-3M range.

No real obvious constructions here but real easy to make anything work.

[DanH]

OK, status of salaries for next season, for the moment.

Pascal Siakam $37,893,408
Fred Van Vleet $22,824,074 (PO)
Gary Trent Jr $18,760,000 (PO)
OG Anunoby $18,642,857
Chris Boucher $11,750,000
Scottie Barnes $8,008,549
Thad Young $8,000,000
Otto Porter Jr $6,300,000
Precious Achiuwa $4,379,527
Malachi Flynn $3,873,025
Christian Koloko $1,720,003

13th pick $4,469,412

Assuming both Fred and Gary opt out (they will), that's 105M to 10 players including our pick. Waiving Thad could save 7M, which would mean 98M to 9 players.

Cap is projected at 134M, tax at 162.8 M.

Empty slots below 12 players count as 1M each, so max cap room is 33M. Max salary for an RFA is 33.5M, max salary for a typical UFA is 40.2M. Supermax is 46.9M.

Free agents of note are Fred, Gary and Jak. Of less note, Dalano, who is RFA with early Bird Rights. Joe Wieskamp has a non-guaranteed deal as well, but his guarantee date is before July so I suspect they waive him, they'd have no rights to him if so. If not, toss another player and 2M salary on the pile. They technically also have Will Barton's non-Bird Rights so can sign him for just above the minimum.

Dowtin and RHJ are also RFAs coming off two-way deals.

MLE is 12.2M this year. Vet minimum is 2M.

Assuming the 105M to 10 players, that leaves 57.8M to add 4 players, including presumably the three key FAs, assuming we want to duck the tax (almost certainly do).

We have Bird Rights to all three key FAs, so can give max raises and backload as much as possible to squeeze them in this summer. A 4 year deal with max raises starts at 89% of the AAV (so for example, a 30M AAV deal starts at 26.8M). A 5 year deal with max raises starts at 86% of the AAV (so a 30M AAV deal starts at 25.6M).

Assuming something like 30M AAV for Fred, 20M AAV for Gary and 20M AAV for Jak, all at 4 years, that means 60.2M. Another player is likely another 2M, so we are 5M over budget, meaning we likely make a move to reduce salary. Could be as simple as waiving Thad, replacing with a 2M player. Just does it. Any of those FAs getting more money though would mean instead we need to trade someone (Boucher is a candidate as he should have some value and with both Koloko and Precious needing steady bench minutes might be time to move him to clear some) into cap room to free up enough wiggle room.

[DanH]

Flynn salary is 3.8 million for next year, a minimum player or a veteran minimum of $1.7 Million still is a savings of $2.1 Million. As you stated lasted every little bit helps.

Right so we could trade him somewhere and it helps a little bit.

[Heatdreamer]

Flynn salary is 3.8 million for next year, a minimum player or a veteran minimum of $1.7 Million still is a savings of $2.1 Million. As you stated lasted every little bit helps.

[DanH]

NBA as of October 22, 2022, projected the Luxury Tax for 2023/24 at $162 Million (8.3% increase), how does that change your above projections. How about not extending Flynn and find a backup SG, and let Scottie play backup PG.

I am aware of the latest projections and they are what I am basing the above on.

Flynn is locked in for next year. We could trade him but that shaves very little off, he'd need to be replaced with a minimum salary player which saves like a million if that.