Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[DanH]

Updated numbers here: http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...l=1#post398629

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I've been posting tidbits in threads here and there, but thought it might be good to post a summary for easy reference, and to paint the full picture of the cap situation.

Before I start, let me say, for details of salaries and other such stuff, visit Shamsports.com - easily the best and most accurate on the web, even if it takes a little time to update. CBAFAQ.com, run by Larry Coon, is a great resource for those who aren't likely to read through the CBA itself, and want to know about salary exceptions or trade rules.

I am going to make a few assumptions, and we'll see how I line up with reality when Sham starts updating salaries. Mainly I am assuming all the deals are backloaded (UPDATE: except Lowry, who Sham tweeted got a flat 12M right as I was posting this), since that would result in the Raptors having exactly enough room for the full MLE and a vet minimum deal under the tax after their RFA signings. And since they waited until the exact tax numbers came in to sign Vasquez, I think that's why they were waiting, so I'm going with it.

2014-15:

Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
DeMar DeRozan $9,500,000
Amir Johnson $7,000,000 (5 M guaranteed)
Greivis Vasquez $6,265,060
Landry Fields $6,250,000
Chuck Hayes $5,958,750
Patrick Patterson $5,581,395
Lou Williams $5,450,000
Jonas Valanciunas $3,678,360
Tyler Hansbrough $3,326,235
Terrence Ross $2,793,960
James Johnson $2,444,988
Bruno Caboclo $1,458,360
Diante Garrett $915,243 (unguaranteed)
Dwight Buycks $816,482 (unguaranteed until 22nd July)
Marcus Camby $646,609 (buyout)

Nando de Colo $1,901,900 (cap hold; $1,828,750 QO)
Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,468,900 (cap hold; will be $1,762,680 when signed)

Above roster, with Buycks and Garrett waived, de Colo overseas and BeBe signed to 120%: $74,116,398

Cap: 63.035 M
Tax: 76.829 M
Apron/Hard Cap: 80.829 M

We've used about 2.4M of the 5.3M MLE on James Johnson, leaving 2.9M. Below the tax we have room for 2.7M worth of deals. That's enough for most of our extra 2.9M of MLE or 1 veteran's minimum deal to be used either now or later in the year (we have only one roster slot to fill assuming Buycks and Garrett get waived).

For future years, I'm going to assume any additional signing with the MLE or minimum will be either 1 year in length or unguaranteed beyond this year.

2015-16:

Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
DeMar DeRozan $9,500,000
Greivis Vasquez $6,734,940
Patrick Patterson $6,000,000
Jonas Valanciunas $4,660,482
Terrence Ross $3,553,917
James Johnson $2,555,012
Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,842,000
Bruno Caboclo $1,524,000
2015 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,257,800 (cap hold)

Nando de Colo $1,901,900 (cap hold; $1,828,750 QO) -> assume we waive his rights to free up cap room

Projected cap: 66.5M

Above team salary is $49,628,151. That leaves 16.3M ish to sign a major free agent (or 16.9M to sign two), assuming we let all our expirings walk (that includes Amir, Fields, Hayes, Hansbrough, Williams). Then the room MLE of 2.814M, re-signing de Colo (unlikely), and minimum deals. But they only have room for 5 additions anyway, and only need to add 3 guys, so maybe it is just max-ish level guy, room MLE, and one minimum salary.

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Then, 2016-17:

At this point I am spitballing what the front office might look to do.

My strategy would be to sign someone (say, Paul Millsap) to a mid-sized contract in 2015 for about 10M, use the rest of the space on a 2-year deal on a role player (6.9M), and use the room MLE and one vet min for two years each (second year unguaranteed for both). We are operating above the cap now, so I won't list cap holds except for the key re-signings, and will list picks at their signing value. DeRozan probably opts out of his 9.5M and becomes a free agent.

Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
Paul Millsap (eg) $10,450,000 (second year of a 10M contract)
Role player from 2015: $6,871,849 (expiring)
Patrick Patterson $6,418,605 (expiring)
Room MLE from 2015: $2,940,630 (unguaranteed)
Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,921,320
Bruno Caboclo $1,589,640
2015 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,577,280
2016 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,562,280 (cap hold is lower)
2016 1st rounder (NYK/DEN assumed 10th): $2,568,600 (cap hold is lower)
Vet min from 2015 $980,431 (unguaranteed)

Cap holds:
DeMar DeRozan $14,250,000
Jonas Valanciunas $11,651,205
Greivis Vasquez $10,102,410
Terrence Ross $8,884,793
James Johnson $4,854,524

Total committed salary including cap holds: 97.0M

Projected Cap: 70.1M (based on this year's cap and next year's projection)
Projected Tax: 85.4M
Projected Apron: 89.4M

Now, maybe JV gets a little more, maybe Ross gets a little less, but let's just say they extend for roughly their cap hold amounts. DD re-signs at a starting salary of his cap hold as well. We'll leave GV and JJ aside for now, moving that committed salary to 83.0M.

So. We then look to sign and trade for the disgruntled Durant after Westbrook let him down again in the playoffs and OKC lost Reggie Jackson in RFA because they are cheap. This means that we are hard capped at 89.4M (since sign and trades are only for teams under the apron).

Note that obviously this assumes Leiweke does his job and convinces Durant to sign with us, and that Presti cooperates so Durant doesn't just sign somewhere else and he gets assets back.

Durant's max contract will be 21.2M starting salary. A sign and trade of expiring contracts (Patterson, 2015 Role Player, 2015 Room MLE signing, 2015 vet minimum signing, and our 2015 draft pick sophomore) would be enough to fit cap-wise. They would obviously want picks included, so we'd send both our recent 2016 unsigned rookies as well. They would waive Room MLE guy and vet minimum guy, and have a young and decent piece in Patterson and our 2015 role player on expiring deals, as well as three recent draft picks, one possibly a top 10 pick. We could include future picks as well, but they would be worth little, as we'd expect to be a powerhouse.

At this point, our commitments would look like this for 2016-17:

Kevin Durant - $21,166,553
DeMar DeRozan $14,250,000
Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
Jonas Valanciunas $11,651,205
Paul Millsap (eg) $10,450,000
Terrence Ross $8,884,793
Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,921,320
Bruno Caboclo $1,589,640

Total committed salary: 82.3M

Add in five minimum salary guys at 980k each (for tax purposes) and we are sitting at 86.8M (which we need to do, as we are participating in a sign and trade and are hard capped at 89M). So instead of one of those minimum salary guys, we can bring back Vasquez or James Johnson on a 3.6M dollar deal.

Then the next year we can start adding players via rookie contracts, tax-payer's MLE, and trades. In the meantime, our depth chart looks like this:

PG: Lowry, GV?, min
SG: DeRozan, Ross, min
SF: Durant, Caboclo
PF: Millsap, min
C: JV, BeBe, min

Fun times.

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So hopefully the first half of this was helpful, and the second half entertaining in a "hope and a prayer" sort of way.

Let me know if you see any corrections need making or have any questions.

[DanH]

Are empty roster slots considered for tax purposes too? I figured that would be an exception, and thus not considered.

It's two different things. Empty roster slots are considered for cap room purposes in the off-season because you are allowed to be under 14 players in the off-season. But in-season, you have to have 14 players signed. Meaning if they magically make CJ disappear, they have to sign someone. Meaning adding at least the 1.5M minimum salary (for tax purposes). So they can't save all of CJ's money, not because of roster slot holds but because of the real salary of whatever 14th man they are mandated to sign.

[planetmars]

Yeah, that's about right. Except they need 14 players so you have to add 1.5M back in, making the salary savings 6.8M and the tax savings lower as well. Still a lot, of course. Will be even more significant next season where they could be even deeper in the tax.

Are empty roster slots considered for tax purposes too? I figured that would be an exception, and thus not considered.

[DanH]

How they gonna keep Kawhi AND sign Durant, it's going to be tight.

If Kawhi bolts we sign Durant

Neither of these things will happen. Both take significant effort (like, dramatic) to make them even possible next summer.

[DanH]

Dan,

If the Raps could dump CJ with nothing coming back how much does it save the team in tax?

Let’s say to a team with room for a protected 2nd round pick. (Sacramento?)
Anyway, beyond the 8.3mill in salary if we can dump him for nothing what’s the net savings in tax?

Edit—I messed around with it a bit. Is it about 22 mill in taxes meaning dumping CJ for nothing would save $30 mill in total? If I did that correctly...that’s a lot of money.

Yeah, that's about right. Except they need 14 players so you have to add 1.5M back in, making the salary savings 6.8M and the tax savings lower as well. Still a lot, of course. Will be even more significant next season where they could be even deeper in the tax.

[sanyo]

How they gonna keep Kawhi AND sign Durant, it's going to be tight.

If Kawhi bolts we sign Durant

[Superjudge]

How they gonna keep Kawhi AND sign Durant, it's going to be tight.

[Rudy Bargnani]

Dan,

If the Raps could dump CJ with nothing coming back how much does it save the team in tax?

Let’s say to a team with room for a protected 2nd round pick. (Sacramento?)
Anyway, beyond the 8.3mill in salary if we can dump him for nothing what’s the net savings in tax?

Edit—I messed around with it a bit. Is it about 22 mill in taxes meaning dumping CJ for nothing would save $30 mill in total? If I did that correctly...that’s a lot of money.

[DanH]

Davis has a player option in 20-21 that he will definitely opt out of.

Spotrac is garbage. Use Bball insiders or even better, Deeks' capulator at ShamSports.

Siakam is a free agent before 2021, so he'd have gotten paid. Same goes for any other young pieces we are keeping. Except OG, who will be a free agent that summer and will have a moderate cap hit. We will also still have Norm on the books, for the moment anyway. Two maxes is possible. But if their 1st rounders are in the top 5, those salaries aren't nothing, so it gets tricky to fit two pretty quickly.

[inthepaint]

I'd think the best case 2021 scenario would be having our depth rotation players (though I think FVV will be gone by then), ideally two really good players from the draft, and enough cap room for one star signing.

Also, Davis is a free agent in 2020, I believe.

Yeah I think if we had OG, Siakam and FVV out of this group by then it would be nice (though I also think FVV will be gone by then).

Spotrac says Davis is a UFA in 2021. I'm wondering if we would have the ability to pay 2 of Davis/Giannis/Gobert while retaining OG and Siakam.

These 4 players would be the highest paid in the team (somewhat similar to what we have in Lowry, Leonard, JV and Ibaka now), and the rest of the roster (the backcourt), we'd have on rookie/mid deals from the rebuild. Lots of variables, and may not necessarily be the best way to structure the roster, but just wondering if would be attainable at all.

[DanH]

I'd think the best case 2021 scenario would be having our depth rotation players (though I think FVV will be gone by then), ideally two really good players from the draft, and enough cap room for one star signing.

Also, Davis is a free agent in 2020, I believe.

[inthepaint]

I hope Kawhi re-signs (I actually think that's not an unlikely scenario at all), but in the event he doesn't, it's interesting the path the team could take in the next 3 yrs of so. Huge variables in place on a 3yr path of course, but just for fun, this is something I imagined:

--2018-2019 Season: Finals run. If we make it and take a game or two out of golden state, that's a huge incentive for Kawhi to stick around, in which case we shoot for it again the year after. But if we don't and he bolts, then-

--Summer 2019: Try to move expiring deals of Lowry, JV, Ibaka and Miles (before they become UFA's in 2020), for prospect & picks as best as we can. Retain FVV, OG and Siakam.

--2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons: 2 yrs of rebuilding and clearing cap space, hopefully drafting as high as possible (aiming for backcourt players)

--2021 summer: Anthony Davis (PF), Rudy Gobert (C) and Giannis Atentekuonpo (SF) are all free agents. If we had the cap space and pull to sign 2 out of those 3 guys, that'd be an awesome frontcourt (to combine with the drafted back court players we would have drafted during the rebuild)

[DanH]

Huh. Might as well just make it so the contract is automatically the full 120% then.

Does anybody not get the full amount? Seems like a formality at this point

It is a formality, with very few exceptions. Teams do like to be able to build in soft bonuses into that 120% though - like fan event appearances, summer league participation, etc.

[Bonus Jonas]

Roster slots go up to 12 because 14 is the minimum, and you also have the room MLE. So the 14th guy can be signed with the R-MLE, the 13th guy can be signed with your cap space, and there have to be 12 roster slots "filled" - either by contracts or cap holds.

As a note, the full 120% counts for rookies now even before they sign.

Your math seems about right for those scenarios. A lot of guesswork at this stage.

Huh. Might as well just make it so the contract is automatically the full 120% then.

Does anybody not get the full amount? Seems like a formality at this point

[DanH]

Thanks a lot btw, don’t know where I would’ve gotten those answers anywhere else lol

No problem.