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Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

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  • DanH
    replied
    OK, current projection:

    RJ 26M
    Jak 19.5M
    Kelly 13M
    Scottie 11M
    Boucher 11M
    Gradey 5M
    McDaniels 5M
    Ochai 4.5M
    19th Pick 3.5M

    That's 9 guys.

    IQ has a cap hold of 12.5M and is RFA.

    I doubt we carry cap holds for other guys, if we re-sign someone like Nwora it'll be with an exception or something.

    Gary's cap hold is high, so if we use cap space and also keep him we'll re-sign him first so his salary counts on the cap instead.

    Brown has a team option for 23M. If we go for cap space it means we opted out of that.

    JFL's deal is a minimum deal and almost completely unguaranteed, so they can keep him or drop him, no major impact (~600k cap room hit if they keep him).

    So, best case cap room (keeping IQ):
    112M to 9 guys, IQ's hold makes 10, so two empty roster slot cap holds. Leaves ~29M in cap room.

    If they use cap room, they also get the room MLE (8M per year, two years term max) on top of that. Can re-sign IQ to whatever they want after using cap room and move above the cap.

    That 29M could be a single FA, multiple FAs, used in a trade to take on salary. Could also keep Gary (say for like 15M) and have another 15M to spend on another MLE level guy and outbid the MLE market (MLE starts just under 13M this year). Not enough to really chase a big name in FA, so no stealing OG or Pascal back, but still a lot of wiggle room.

    Alternatively, they keep Brown on the books, or trade him for a similar salary, and then they are operating over the cap, but without the top 6 pick, now likely have the flexibility to keep IQ and Trent and also use the MLE on a FA, and if they are careful they can stay just under the tax.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Now that Kelly is extended, the Raps currently project to have at about 28M in cap space, if they let Gary and Nwora walk, opt out of Brown, but keep Quickley's cap hold to re-sign him.

    If they luck into the top 4 and keep their draft pick, that number would drop by 8-11.5M, depending on the exact pick they land.

    Worth noting there is also the room MLE (about 8M) they can use after using cap room. So smaller re-signs like a Nwora could be put off by renouncing his rights and then just using that exception to sign him after using cap room. But a guy like Gary I would expect to be too expensive to keep without using up some cap space.

    Leave a comment:


  • SkywalkerAC
    replied
    At the deadline we kept two guys with expiring contracts - Gary and Brown. I don't know why people would assume we won't just go with the cap space and sign a guy or two that better fit what we're trying to do, or facilitate some immediate cap relief for tax teams and pick up assets that way. Maybe it makes sense to sign Gary and pick up Brown's option and trade him (e.g. at the draft) but cap space seems like a viable route as well.

    Leave a comment:


  • SkywalkerAC
    replied
    Thanks Dan. Looks like we’ll have 25-30 mill in cap space to spread around (hard to imagine a major star/starting lineup upgrade) on some winning vets.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
    So...how much cap space are we looking at this season (assuming we decline Bruce's option)? And will we have this kind of room to swing for it again any time soon?
    Right now, assuming we decline Brown, but keep Quickley's cap hold on the books (to use cap room before re-signing him), and otherwise let our free agents walk (Gary, Nwora, Olynyk), we would have:

    $93.5M committed to 8 players (including Quickley and his hold)
    Another ~4M for the Pacers draft pick depending on where they land
    Another minimum salary for our 2nd rounder
    And then two more minimum salary slot cap holds to fill out the roster

    That makes 101M committed and ~40M in cap room (141M projected salary cap).

    The max RFA contract is 35.25M. Max offer for a 7-9 year player (typical UFA) is 42.3M.

    This all assumes we don't keep our own pick. If we end up in the 1-6 range, that's an additional cap hit of 7.5M-12.5M, replacing a minimum cap hold of 1.2M. So 6.3M to 11.3M less cap space.

    For future years, need to assume some stuff. Let's say we lose the pick this year, and our only long term re-sign this year is Quickley, at a starting salary of 23M, then next summer (2025) we have:

    122.2M for 6 players (Scottie, Jak, IQ, RJ, Gradey, Agbaji)
    Another ~4M or so for the Pacers pick from this upcoming draft
    A 2nd year minimum salary for the Detroit pick in this draft
    Some amount set aside for our own pick in 2025 (say, 10th overall pick, $6M)

    That's 138.5M in a 155M cap. Leaves 16.6M. MLE is 14.1M for reference.

    So unless we use cap space this summer, probably best to plan to be over the cap until after the Scottie Barnes era is over (which is hopefully a really long time from now).

    Leave a comment:


  • SkywalkerAC
    replied
    So...how much cap space are we looking at this season (assuming we decline Bruce's option)? And will we have this kind of room to swing for it again any time soon?

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
    Was Weezy on a (non-guaranteed) 2-way (that's what they said in some Daily Hive article)? Or is there a chance we retain him on a 2-way?
    He was not on a 2-way. He was on a NG regular NBA contract.

    I think we could sign him to a 2-way but whether he would want that I'm not sure.

    Leave a comment:


  • SkywalkerAC
    replied
    Was Weezy on a (non-guaranteed) 2-way (that's what they said in some Daily Hive article)? Or is there a chance we retain him on a 2-way?

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Rudy Bargnani wrote: View Post

    Thanks for this.
    So let's say Fred signs in Houston and leaves for nothing. Assuming we keep Jak are we looking at basically just the mid level exception so like 12 mill?
    Does Jak and Grady have a lower cap hold that buys us some flexibility?
    Yeah, no scenario where we have any meaningful cap space. MLE if we lose one of the FAs.

    Leave a comment:


  • Rudy Bargnani
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    GTJ opts in.

    For what it's worth, I've now got the Raps with about 42M in wiggle room under the tax line (assuming that they have their 13th pick and minimums signed besides their two FAs) to fit Fred and Jak.

    If you assume that's 17M and 25M starting salaries, and max raises over the term, that could be the following deals, for Jak and Fred respectively:
    3 year deals: 18.4M AAV, 27M AAV
    4 year deals: 19M AAV, 28M AAV
    5 year deals: 19.7M AAV, 29M AAV

    Pretty close, I think! If those numbers fall short, and you need to go a little higher, you can trade a bench piece away for lesser or no salary, or waive and stretch a bench piece (though I wouldn't recommend that one). I'd think a Boucher or OPJ trade is most likely.

    For both players, the key may be whether the Raps offer that longer term, not only to be able to afford a larger AAV on the same first year salary, but also to top any slightly higher AAV offers with more total guaranteed money.
    Thanks for this.
    So let's say Fred signs in Houston and leaves for nothing. Assuming we keep Jak are we looking at basically just the mid level exception so like 12 mill?
    Does Jak and Grady have a lower cap hold that buys us some flexibility?

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    That would be a case of Betting on Yourself gone wrong…. if you can call being forced to take $109M a bad thing. Lol.
    That's why it's a bet. But yeah, hardly a terrible fate. Those bets have gone far worse for other players.

    Leave a comment:


  • golden
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post

    Because he had a down year after they decided to forego the extension?

    He wanted to see what was out there. If there's no 114M out there for him, why would he be stuck on that number?
    That would be a case of Betting on Yourself gone wrong…. if you can call being forced to take $109M a bad thing. Lol.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    Fred turned down a $114.5M extension. Why would he now sign for $109M?
    Because he had a down year after they decided to forego the extension?

    He wanted to see what was out there. If there's no 114M out there for him, why would he be stuck on that number?

    Leave a comment:


  • golden
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    GTJ opts in.

    For what it's worth, I've now got the Raps with about 42M in wiggle room under the tax line (assuming that they have their 13th pick and minimums signed besides their two FAs) to fit Fred and Jak.

    If you assume that's 17M and 25M starting salaries, and max raises over the term, that could be the following deals, for Jak and Fred respectively:
    3 year deals: 18.4M AAV, 27M AAV
    4 year deals: 19M AAV, 28M AAV
    5 year deals: 19.7M AAV, 29M AAV

    Pretty close, I think! If those numbers fall short, and you need to go a little higher, you can trade a bench piece away for lesser or no salary, or waive and stretch a bench piece (though I wouldn't recommend that one). I'd think a Boucher or OPJ trade is most likely.

    For both players, the key may be whether the Raps offer that longer term, not only to be able to afford a larger AAV on the same first year salary, but also to top any slightly higher AAV offers with more total guaranteed money.
    Fred turned down a $114.5M extension. Why would he now sign for $109M?

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    GTJ opts in.

    For what it's worth, I've now got the Raps with about 42M in wiggle room under the tax line (assuming that they have their 13th pick and minimums signed besides their two FAs) to fit Fred and Jak.

    If you assume that's 17M and 25M starting salaries, and max raises over the term, that could be the following deals, for Jak and Fred respectively:
    3 year deals: 18.4M AAV, 27M AAV
    4 year deals: 19M AAV, 28M AAV
    5 year deals: 19.7M AAV, 29M AAV

    Pretty close, I think! If those numbers fall short, and you need to go a little higher, you can trade a bench piece away for lesser or no salary, or waive and stretch a bench piece (though I wouldn't recommend that one). I'd think a Boucher or OPJ trade is most likely.

    For both players, the key may be whether the Raps offer that longer term, not only to be able to afford a larger AAV on the same first year salary, but also to top any slightly higher AAV offers with more total guaranteed money.

    Leave a comment:

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