Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[DanH]

Math is fine, a lot of it comes down to assumptions. One correction is that Ross is not in a team option, that's his qualifying offer you have listed, cap hold is much higher (closer to 9M).

My numbers have been assuming 10th and 20th picks, hence me ending up with 25M instead of 24M in cap space. Max should start at 25.1M based on an 89M cap. Closer to 26M if the cap stretches up to 93M. That said, be cautious with the optimistic cap projections - every year people assume the cap will come in above the projection, and it only happens about half the time - this year's was 3M above (an outlier), but the year prior's was a few hundred thousand below the projection. And the cap may indeed end up at 93M - just be aware that it's hard to say what is likely this far out - last summer the cap projection was adjusted from 66.5M to 67.1M - ended up at 70M with no warning until midway through the moratorium.

[planetmars]

Felt like doing some math tonight.. this is the outlook for 2016 (using bball insiders for help):

Carroll, Lowry, CoJo, 2Pat, JV, Wright, Powell:
$56,398,939

Bruno:
$57,988,579

Bebe
$59,908,899

2016 first (assume #5) - $3,227,100 - cap hold (should be signed @ 120% of that)
2016 first (assume #20) - $1,301,900 - cap hold (should be signed @ 120% of that)
$64,438,899

12th spot cap hold - $543,471 (minimum salary)
$64,982,370

DeMar's cap hold - $15,075,000
Biyombo's player option - $2,940,630
Ross (team option) - $4.790,680

JJ, Scola and De Colo will have cap holds but will probably be renounced.

Assuming cap is at $89M.

Without DD's cap hold, Ross and Bioymbo - they have $24,017,630 cap space left. I believe the starting salary for Durant in 2016 given the max would be $24.9 (according to Bobby Marks).

If BB does not pick up his option, Raptors would have to shed some salary still (possibly Bebe) to get under the cap to go after KD. If BB picks up his option then someone like 2Pat will have to be traded for cap relief.


Notes:
- This is not news for a lot of folks, but I was interested in the fine details, and had some time to spare.
- The cap could go up above $89M.. I heard as high as $93M.
- BB will have a lot of power in the summer as he'll probably end up determining 2Pat's fate (unless the cap goes up), assuming Masai wants max money to work with (for 7-9 year free agents like KD).
- I really doubt TR or DD will be Raptors next year unless Masai strikes out on a max free agent (but I do suspect Batum will be his plan C).

Dan (or anyone) please correct my math if I'm wrong.

[JWash]

I think in terms of guaranteed contracts for 2016-17 we have ~60M on the books not including POs, TOs or the 2016 draft picks.

[mcHAPPY]

Agreed, that's my expectation as well.

Though it should be noted they would have room for 7-9 year vet max, not the true max.

Right you are.

The only true max free agents in my mind for next season both happen to be 7-9 year vets (not getting lebron, folks!)

[DanH]

Then my money is on JV backloaded.

Raps might not have much hope to sign KD but you have to believe they are going to have the ability to do it if the opportunity arose. Or any true max free agent for that matter.

Agreed, that's my expectation as well.

Though it should be noted they would have room for 7-9 year vet max, not the true max.

[mcHAPPY]

Depends a lot on whether JV's deal is flat or backloaded. Quick back of the napkin leaves us still with enough room for a Durant attempt if we let everyone else go and JV's deal is backloaded.

Then my money is on JV backloaded.

Raps might not have much hope to sign KD but you have to believe they are going to have the ability to do it if the opportunity arose. Or any true max free agent for that matter.

[DanH]

Depends a lot on whether JV's deal is flat or backloaded. Quick back of the napkin leaves us still with enough room for a Durant attempt if we let everyone else go and JV's deal is backloaded.

[TheWaterboy]

Since I've seen some talk and even a thread on the topic, here is what our 2016 summer looks like right now.

We have 9 players locked into contracts (KL, DC, CJ, PP, BB, BeBe, Bruno, Wright, Powell).

We also have two draft picks (for this calc I've assumed 20th and 10th overall picks).

We also have several free agents. DD, JV, Ross, Scola, JJ and de Colo. Only 4 spots for them right now.

Cap situation:

Keep all cap holds: 8M over cap
Waive JJ, Scola and Nando: 2.3M cap room
Also waive Ross: 11.2M in cap room
Also waive DD: 25.4M in cap room (enough for a max offer on Durant, for example)

If JV and/or Ross are extended those extensions eat into our cap room if they are bigger than their cap holds (11.7M and 8.9M respectively).

JV's new contract eats into our cap room/adds to the amount we are over the cap by about 4.3 million if it's 4 years at 16 million even - or about what we would get back from Derozan's cap hold, if for whatever reason he were to opt in for his final year, and we now have 10 players under contract plus two first rounders.next year.

Anything I'm missing (or completely wrong on) in this attempt at an update?

[SkywalkerAC]

If Ross were to be moved in a Markieff deal (along with Bebe), maybe picking Nando back up could be a good move. He's a solid shooting guard who can hit the 3 and could also act as a secondary creator along with CoJo off the bench.

I'm sure some would rather see Powell maybe get some run there but Nando could be a decently reliable backup 2-guard.

yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Nando can shoot. Now, I'm not sure what his contract in Europe looks like in terms of buy-out, but it is an option - there's a reason his rights were retained.

[JWash]

We have Nando's rights, we can sign him with the Early Bird exception.

If Ross were to be moved in a Markieff deal (along with Bebe), maybe picking Nando back up could be a good move. He's a solid shooting guard who can hit the 3 and could also act as a secondary creator along with CoJo off the bench.

I'm sure some would rather see Powell maybe get some run there but Nando could be a decently reliable backup 2-guard.

[DanH]

We have Nando's rights, we can sign him with the Early Bird exception.

[SkywalkerAC]

Can someone remind me whether we need to use cap space or an exception in order to sign Nando?

[SkywalkerAC]

Hard to trade for 12M+ player without giving up a starter or emptying the bench. Giving up a starter just means creating another hole

I don't see that much of a hole when trading Lowry, DeMar either for that matter. I mean, if they both play at a legit star-level all season, there'd be a bit of a hole created. But that's also the sacrifice you make when trying to trade/sign a superstar.

We've got Cory/Delon/(Nando) at the PG spot. We've got Ross/Powell/(Cory/Delon) at SG. I like DD/Lowry but I don't see trading either as creating a vacuum.

[Puffer]

One problem right now is that there aren't salaries that can go out without hurt the roster. Wonder why MU didn't make a few deals unguaranteed. Contracts like Salmons and Amir are useful in trades

That's one of the reasons you accumulate picks. They provide a lot of flexibility.

[raptors999]

Our contracts can be packaged together no problem.

Hard to trade for 12M+ player without giving up a starter or emptying the bench. Giving up a starter just means creating another hole