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  • KHD wrote: View Post

    it's about time we stopped believing that medical doctors with a 1 to 2 year master's degree in public health suddenly become experts on the graph theory and other mathematics required to simulate a complex network of interacting nodes (required to properly study epidemic patterns). These are extremely complex systems.

    It's no longer acceptable to present modeling results that are based on every single person having the same parameters in terms of number of contacts, etc.
    Even when you get it right, probabilities have limited value. We always want forecasting to be more precise than it can be, ever. Hell, look at the 5 day weather report.
    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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    • KHD wrote: View Post

      Speaking as someone who has been an academic scientist for a while now, science and modeling are not infallible and are supposed to be questioned. Epidemiology as a field has been flat out wrong on most of its predictions to date in this pandemic. They are going to have their own "replication crisis" after everyone calms down.

      I mean, as an academic, it is flat out insulting to see a fucking U of T professor post something as preposterously ill-fitted as this model and claim anything based on it.
      Then what's stopping you and other academic scientists from challenging what's happening? I don't see people carrying clout out in front opposing it with a bulletproof case. I don't know if anything other than polls can change Trudeau but he sure doesn't like to look foolish, no one does.

      Comment


      • Dr. Henry getting some love in NY Times.

        Mamba Mentality

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        • Apollo wrote: View Post

          Then what's stopping you and other academic scientists from challenging what's happening? I don't see people carrying clout out in front opposing it with a bulletproof case. I don't know if anything other than polls can change Trudeau but he sure doesn't like to look foolish, no one does.
          There are a fair number who do challenge the validity of the "prevailing wisdom" regarding lockdown. Many of them go too far to the opposite extreme, but there are a lot of smart people in the middle ground presenting some pretty reasonable ideas.

          Regardless, they usually get dismissed / accused of "wanting to kill grandma" and shouted down by the academic twitterati. In my opinion science has become highly politicized on this matter. If you need evidence of that, look at what happened with the Lancet / NEJM trials, and ask yourself how and why they ever got published in the first place.


          There's lots being done on many fronts to try and explain why the virus seems to really slow down in a population after a certain level of infection (well below the traditional herd immunity threshold). Possible cross-immunities, viral clearance without serum antibody formation, social contact matrix inhomogeneities, seasonal effects, etc.
          Personally, my guess is that there's a little of all of them at play.

          Anyway, my point is that there is certainly more to the situation than the basic "Herd immunity = 1 - 1/R0" line that the twitter epidemiology community keeps parroting.

          But you shouldn't take me at my word. I could easily be wrong. Be skeptical.

          Comment


          • KHD wrote: View Post
            ..."shouted down by the academic twitterati...
            New term: Nitwitterati.

            Thank you.

            Comment


            • There is evidence that the official NHS description of the virus’s symptoms – cough, fever, loss of taste/smell – is too narrow. Those who do not need acute hospital treatment and who are isolating at home report a far broader range of problems. Often these go on for longer than 14 days. An online survey of 151 medical professionals who fell ill in March found 68 are still unable to work. A further 26 went back, only to stop again when symptoms returned.

              It appears coronavirus may be a chronic condition. How long it persists for is unknown. The symptoms can be serious and wide-ranging, affecting the lungs, heart, brain, kidneys, stomach and nervous system. Headaches, shortness of breath, sore throat and feeling exhausted are common. So is recovery followed by frequent relapses. Here are the stories of four women who are struggling to return to normal life...
              https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...virus-symptoms

              Comment


              • One of my neighbours had it. He said he had some change in taste/smell for a couple of days, but other than that, he said it was the mildest flu he's ever had. People's experiences are different of course, but his case was like the overwhelming majority: mild to no symptoms for a couple of weeks, then bounced right back.

                This is a novel virus, and a lot about it is still being researched, but the reality is, in the ~400 years since we've known germs exist , there's never been any form of viral microbe that can affect both "the stomach, the brain and the kidney". It just doesn't work that way. Viral cells have surface markers that have a "lock & key" relationship to specific receptors in human cells. These receptors are different in every human tissue. That's why HIV attack only T-Cells (immune system), varicella/shingles to nerve endings, respiratory ones will stick to the respiratory tract, and so on.

                The notion that the covid-19 virus (a small variant of a viral family that's known for a decade) can all of sudden affect the "the brain, the kidney, the heart, the stomach and the lungs", all tissues with completely different surface receptors, makes no biological sense. That's probably why when you hear these ghostly claims there's no actual doctor or researcher signing at the bottom saying "Yes, we've seen this in the population in significant numbers, we researched in the lab, and confirmed scientifically that the virus can do that. Here's the peer-reviewed paper". It just gets put out in the internet ether, hoping to keep people scared.

                We were supposed to believe that this would (A) Kill millions of people in North America alone in a short period of time and (B) completely overrun all hospitals. Both turn out to be complete BS, so until there's actual sound science (statistical or biological) behind this for a change, to a lot of people it will just sound like yet another fear-mongering hear-say.
                Last edited by inthepaint; Mon Jun 8th, 2020, 01:00 PM.
                2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                  One of my neighbours had it. He said he had some change in taste/smell for a couple of days, but other than that, he said it was the mildest flu he's ever had. People's experiences are different of course, but his case was like the overwhelming majority: mild to no symptoms for a couple of weeks, then bounced right back.

                  This is a novel virus, and a lot about it is still being researched, but the reality is, in the ~400 years since we've known germs exist , there's never been any form of viral microbe that can affect both "the stomach, the brain and the kidney". It just doesn't work that way. Viral cells have surface markers that have a "lock & key" relationship to specific receptors in human cells. These receptors are different in every human tissue. That's why HIV attack only T-Cells (immune system), varicella/shingles to nerve endings, respiratory ones will stick to the respiratory tract, and so on.

                  The notion that the covid-19 virus (a small variant of a viral family that's known for a decade) can all of sudden affect the "the brain, the kidney, the heart, the stomach and the lungs", all tissues with completely different surface receptors, makes no biological sense. That's probably why when you hear these ghostly claims there's no actual doctor or researcher signing at the bottom saying "Yes, we've seen this in the population in significant numbers, we researched in the lab, and confirmed scientifically that the virus can do that. Here's the peer-reviewed paper". It just gets put out in the internet ether, hoping to keep people scared.

                  We were supposed to believe that this would (A) Kill millions of people in North America alone in a short period of time and (B) completely overrun all hospitals. Both turn out to be complete BS, so until there's actual sound science (statistical or biological) behind this for a change, to a lot of people it will just sound like yet another fear-mongering hear-say.
                  Indeed it is a fact that HIV attacks T cells which leaves the body open to all sorts of issues such as:,

                  Anxiety, depression, fatigue, dementia, nephropathy, seizures, balance and coordination issues, inflammation and lesions to the tongue, mouth ulcers, esophagus inflammation, flu-like symptoms, chronic cough, heart strain, hypertension, swollen glands, respiratory infection, kidney damage,bumpy skin, itchiness, skin sores, shingles, diarrhea and overall comprise of the immune system which leads to other diseases.

                  It is understood now that this particular coronavirus also attacks those very same t cells. It is also understood that by early adulthood the body struggles to make these cells. Which brings us to a good point that few are considering: the impact of this virus is not merely life or death right now or in a month. There are long term implications that are irresponsible to ignore.

                  Comment


                  • I posted this in the Politics thread in April:
                    Apollo wrote: View Post
                    In Brief | Published: 06 April 2020
                    COVID-19 Fighting COVID-19 exhausts T cells
                    Lymphopenia is seen in severe cases of COVID-19, but the functional state of T cells in these patients is not known. Based on the retrospective study of 522 patients with COVID-19 and 40 healthy controls from Wuhan, China, this preprint study found that the age-dependent and clinical severity-dependent reduction in T cell numbers inversely correlates with serum levels of TNF, IL-6 and IL-10. The expression of T cell exhaustion markers (PD1 and TIM3) was assessed in peripheral blood cells from 14 patients with COVID-19 and 3 controls. CD8+ T cells from patients in intensive care units (ICUs) showed increased expression of PD1 compared with patients not in ICUs and healthy controls. This suggests that as disease severity progresses in patients with COVID-19, a concomitant rise in inflammatory cytokine levels may drive the depletion and exhaustion of T cell populations.
                    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0304-7

                    The first quote uses the word 'exhaustion' which means total depletion, totally used up, zero. What other virus attacks the primary body defense? HIV. I Googled terms "Covid 19" & "T cells" and found this from two weeks ago:

                    A doctor who works in a public hospital treating Covid-19 patients in Beijing
                    “More and more people compare it to HIV,” said the doctor who requested not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
                    Lu Lu, from Fudan University in Shanghai, and Jang Shibo, from the New York Blood Centre, joined the living virus, which is officially known as Sars-CoV-2, to laboratory-grown T lymphocyte cell lines.

                    T lymphocytes, also known as T cells, play a central role in identifying and eliminating alien invaders in the body.

                    They do this by capturing a cell infected by a virus, boring a hole in its membrane and injecting toxic chemicals into the cell. These chemicals then kill both the virus and infected cell and tear them to pieces.
                    HIV can replicate in the T cells and turn them into factories to generate more copies to infect other cells.

                    But Lu and Jiang did not observe any growth of the coronavirus after it entered the T-cells, suggesting that the virus and T-cells might end up dying together.
                    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...ing-protective

                    We're dealing with a disease that knocks out the body's ability to identify foreign invaders and neutralize them. To me, that means if you get the virus and survive this first wave then your defenses are down for all other types of infections, just like people who develop AIDS.

                    Apollo wrote: View Post
                    About T cells:
                    Studies of T-cell regeneration using animal models have consistently shown the importance of the thymus for T-cell regeneration. In humans, recent studies have shown that declines in thymic T-cell regenerative capacity begins relatively early in life, resulting in a limited capacity for T-cell regeneration by young adulthood.
                    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9476668/
                    Link: https://forums.raptorsrepublic.com/f...tics-ii/page42
                    Last edited by Apollo; Mon Jun 8th, 2020, 01:28 PM.

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                    • Apollo wrote: View Post

                      Indeed it is a fact that HIV attacks T cells which leaves the body open to all sorts of issues such as:,

                      Anxiety, depression, fatigue, dementia, nephropathy, seizures, balance and coordination issues, inflammation and lesions to the tongue, mouth ulcers, esophagus inflammation, flu-like symptoms, chronic cough, heart strain, hypertension, swollen glands, respiratory infection, kidney damage,bumpy skin, itchiness, skin sores, shingles, diarrhea and overall comprise of the immune system which leads to other diseases.

                      It is understood now that this particular coronavirus also attacks those very same t cells. It is also understood that by early adulthood the body struggles to make these cells. Which brings us to a good point that few are considering: the impact of this virus is not merely life or death right now or in a month. There are long term implications that are irresponsible to ignore.
                      Anything is possible, and science is about being open minded. That said, the bigger the claim, the bigger the scientific rigour, peer review, and scrutiny that needs to come with it. A "doctor that requested not to be named due to sensitivity of the issue" comparing it to HIV doesn't cut it.

                      T-Cells are part of the immune system. There are many things that can exhaust and suppress the immune system indirectly, from hard flus, to medications, to hormonal fluctuations to even stress alone. If we combine all that on an elderly person that has seen a natural decrease in their immune system, then yeah, they'll have a hard time fighting anything (including covid), and the door is open to all the ailments you listed. That's very different from a viral antigen directly targeting perfectly heathy T-cells in 20 year old healthy men and destroying their immune system like HIV did in the 80's. So either it does, or it doesn't.

                      Real scientists don't sit on big discoveries. They repeat their lab tests to the Nth degree to corroborate their findings and strengthen their hypothesis. That's how they get their funding. If the covid-19 virus actually has a surface antigen with a corresponding receptor in the T-cell (like HIV does), therefore being able to infect it directly, that's a massive claim. Maybe there's more out there but the original article was published Feb 20th (from what appears to be research done in China, where real funding and conflicts of interest are very difficult to track). If that was indeed the case (direct infection of T-cell by the virus), there would be numerous papers out there pointing that out, and it would be all over the 6 o'clock news.

                      But that's the beauty of peer-reviewed science. If there isn't a global, independent corroboration of results, then there's little scientific value.
                      2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

                      Comment


                      • Yeah, except it's not just one anonymous doctor.

                        Either way, you can't brush away the seriousness of the disease one moment citing some (to me) random dude who caught it and then the next minute swipe down real information from the frontlines that I post because it hasn't gone through extensive research and peer review. That makes no sense.

                        Comment


                        • Question:
                          How many posters here personally know someone who has had COVID?
                          Not the teller at the bank (we had one here in our city 3 months ago and none since), not some people in a nursing home you read in the paper (there was a single case here she got it in a hospital visit, quarantined and no one further), but you personally know.

                          My daughter's friend had it (diagnosal confirmation) but very mild symptoms. Her live-in boyfriend didn't catch it from her and they're hours from here in London, ON

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                          • G__Deane wrote: View Post
                            Question:
                            How many posters here personally know someone who has had COVID?
                            Not the teller at the bank (we had one here in our city 3 months ago and none since), not some people in a nursing home you read in the paper (there was a single case here she got it in a hospital visit, quarantined and no one further), but you personally know.

                            My daughter's friend had it (diagnosal confirmation) but very mild symptoms. Her live-in boyfriend didn't catch it from her and they're hours from here in London, ON
                            My sister lives in Washington state. About 5 of her friends from seattle had it closest connection to me of someone I onow
                            To be the champs you got to beat the champs

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                            • Apollo wrote: View Post
                              Yeah, except it's not just one anonymous doctor.

                              Either way, you can't brush away the seriousness of the disease one moment citing some (to me) random dude who caught it and then the next minute swipe down real information from the frontlines that I post because it hasn't gone through extensive research and peer review. That makes no sense.
                              The random dude that I cited is meaningless statistically. It just illustrates the point that there's a high degree of variability in the way the average person experiences it. Just because he wasn't hospitalized doesn't mean other people won't and it doesn't mean the disease is never serious. But it also doesn't mean his T-cells were directly killed by a respiratory virus.

                              And that's the whole point, there's a lot of "oh I heard a 20 yr old in Ireland got really sick from it" or, "Some doctor who wishes to remain anonymous said it reminded him of HIV". That stuff gets picked up by the media and spun as if there's any scientific or epidemiological significance behind it, often with little information pertaining to genetics, medical history, presence of co-conditions, biochemical information on how it behaved, or peer reviewed research to back it up.

                              There's also causality vs. correlation. Again, no statistical significance here but I once got a really bad second-degree burn on my shoulder and forearm. I was mentally and physically in pain, and exhausted, for weeks. I was out of work. I got the runs, broke a rash on a completely unrelated part of my body, was catching one cold after the other. Did the burn cause all that? Biochemically, no. But indirectly, it adversely affected my immune system, which opened the door for all that seemingly unrelated stuff. An anxious bride breaking up a cold-sore before the wedding is a common occurrence.

                              If these guys are saying covid can affect your immune system that way, I believe it. It's not only plausible, but likely. It can be a hard disease on certain people, especially the elderly. Diseases being hard on your immune system is nothing new.

                              But if they're saying it biochemically directly targets and attacks T-cells to destroy them, like HIV does, that's a big difference. And a big claim. It would be the discovery of the century. If that was the case, they would know by now, after 7 months of every university in the world studying it in detail in order to understand how it works to develop a vaccine (plus all the prior knowledge of how the covid virus family works ). It would be widely publicized in scientific papers, with clear conclusions on the exact way it works like HIV, and it would be all over the news (as opposed to internet undercurrents and anonymous doctors)

                              Should science dismiss the possibility though? Of curse not, on the contrary, it should be studied extensively, by multiple countries, independently corroborated and published, so fact is separated from fear-loaded speculation. We gotta move from "what ifs" to real data, before scaring people further. They already played the "what if" card on "it will kill millions of people in North America alone" and "it's gonna completely overrun our hospitals in a couple of weeks", without any prior hard evidence to back it up. Then failed. Speculative fear-mongering without real proof has been going on since day one on this. So understandably the bar is much higher now for other headline-grabbing wild claims like "It's like HIV! or "Watch out for second wave!" etc..
                              2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                              • G__Deane wrote: View Post
                                Question:
                                How many posters here personally know someone who has had COVID?
                                Not the teller at the bank (we had one here in our city 3 months ago and none since), not some people in a nursing home you read in the paper (there was a single case here she got it in a hospital visit, quarantined and no one further), but you personally know.

                                My daughter's friend had it (diagnosal confirmation) but very mild symptoms. Her live-in boyfriend didn't catch it from her and they're hours from here in London, ON
                                Uncle died from it. In his 70's but otherwise generally healthy.
                                "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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