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  • inthepaint wrote: View Post

    I think we should be prudent and a lot of these measures are reasonable, but I hear you. The part that doesn't quite add up to me (at least so far) is the constant "we're only seeing the beginning of it, what if gets worse". It may be relatively new here, but this has been around since mid-December (possibly earlier, that's when it was first detected). For the 2 first months, it had the "surprise element" and started in a country with over 1.4 Billion people, culturally living very close together. It's been there for 4 full months now, and the death toll is still below 3,300. So to say it's gonna kill 2.2 million people in the states alone, as the weather warms up no less, seems incongruent, inconsistent with what's happened so far.

    We have 37.6 million in this country and it killed 9 people so far. First case in Canada was January 25, so it's gonna be 2 full months next Wednesday . If it's hard to fully grasp the relationship between these two numbers, imagine 37.6 million dollars, and then nine bucks. And yet the country is literally on its knees. I'm not diminishing any death, one is too many, but it gives some perspective.

    Stress & anxiety are physiologically proven to dampen your immune system. What's ironic and unfortunate is that the stress/anxiety generated by the shut down of our economy has actually indirectly helped the virus by weakening the immune system of those who are more economically/financially vulnerable.
    The what-if-it-gets-worse part is that unchecked spread of the virus over time will result in so many cases at once that it will overwhelm the medical system - and in particular, hospitals, given that about 1 in 5 cases require hospitalization. If I'm not mistaken, New York identified about 1,000 more infected cases in the last 24 hours, of which we can expect 200 cases to require hospitalization... and if New York is identifying 1,000 case in 24 hours, and the virus is transmitted by every infected person who is in the population an average of about twice, and there are 1,000 more cases out there where the infection was transmitted from these people.... it's not a pretty picture. New York, Washington, and California are all much closer than they want to be to the situation in Italy where the medical system was overwhelmed.

    On top of this, difficulties and delays with deploying testing in the US mean that testing is way behind what it should be there, and there are places in the US where the scope of infection is probably not known. The Covid Tracking Project (https://covidtracking.com/data/) collates the best available testing data from all 50 states, and the high number of infected people compared to the low number of tests overall in Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio suggest that there are a lot of people in the community who have Covid-19 and don't know it yet.

    Is there any Canadian province in the Italy scenario? Not yet, but the spread of Covid needs to be contained effectively soon in BC, Ontario, and possibly Alberta and Quebec before it becomes too difficult to control.

    Comment


    • The problem with this virus is the infection rate and the long period a person is infections when no symptoms show. I have seen a report that the average person who has the virus infects 2.2 people a day as they go about their daily life. After 10 days, they've infected 22 people. Now those people will have infected another 198 people before patient zero shows any symptoms. And so it goes. That's why China went from 200 cases to tens of thousands in no time. And the hospitals get flooded with patients who need care, and no one can get treatment for other conditions. Death rate from COVID-19 might only be 1% - 3%, but all of the folks who would normally be getting care can't get beds or treatment partially because the resources aren't available so death rates from normally non-fatal conditions go up.

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      • Puffer wrote: View Post
        The problem with this virus is the infection rate and the long period a person is infections when no symptoms show. I have seen a report that the average person who has the virus infects 2.2 people a day as they go about their daily life. After 10 days, they've infected 22 people. Now those people will have infected another 198 people before patient zero shows any symptoms. And so it goes. That's why China went from 200 cases to tens of thousands in no time. And the hospitals get flooded with patients who need care, and no one can get treatment for other conditions. Death rate from COVID-19 might only be 1% - 3%, but all of the folks who would normally be getting care can't get beds or treatment partially because the resources aren't available so death rates from normally non-fatal conditions go up.
        Well that is why they want us to practice social distancing I guess. You stay away from everyone so the possibility of infecting anyone is so low that those that are identified as infected can be treated and any new cases should be minimal more easily managed through the health system.

        What I want to know is if going two weeks, 3 weeks etc. without any newly identified cases is enough time for the virus to die off? If it doesn't have any new carriers it can't spread right?

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        • LJ2 wrote: View Post

          Well that is why they want us to practice social distancing I guess. You stay away from everyone so the possibility of infecting anyone is so low that those that are identified as infected can be treated and any new cases should be minimal more easily managed through the health system.

          What I want to know is if going two weeks, 3 weeks etc. without any newly identified cases is enough time for the virus to die off? If it doesn't have any new carriers it can't spread right?
          The problem is the word "identified." Just because people aren't testing for it or showing symptoms doesn't mean they don't have it.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

          Comment


          • KeonClark wrote: View Post
            Is anybody else questioning this at all? Like it doesn't add up? Like this is overkill, fear mongering? Shutting down our entire economy, hell, our entire planet, and taking away all our rights and freedoms? For a death rate literally minuscule?

            Anyone??
            Death rate is minuscule now and will stay that way if we keep shutting stuff down. It will not be if we don't.

            Ultimately, the choice is either a) listen to your instinct, throw in your lot with the idiots still going to spring break and holding St Patrick's Day parties or b) actually listen to the scientists, researchers and doctors who have a better idea than any of us what is appropriate and what is overkill, and who are recommending this as a bare minimum and ideally even more isolation/shutdowns than have been implemented.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

            Comment


            • Sure, the economic impact is going to be huge and will directly affect millions of people that may not have been directly affected by the virus itself (other than the minor symptoms for themselves or someone they're close to) - a bunch of them will go "WTF, overreaction!"

              But even at current infection and mortality rates and with current procedures/lockdowns in place, the current projections are millions of people will still die from this. The unchecked global projection for zero response, just let it run its course, was that we'd have more deaths than from WWII. Even with moderate responses, projections are for tens of millions of deaths. Even with more stringent responses (self-isolation, non-essential business shuttered, travel restrictions), US projections are for 2 million deaths.

              Sure all those variables can swing widely depending what you input for assumptions, but make adjustments however you want and you're still looking at millions of deaths with severe preventative measures having the capacity to save millions of lives. Yes, it is that signficant.

              And yes, the economic impact will be massive. This will be the worst recession of our lifetime for most of us and will take years to recover from.

              The biggest hope is for a vaccine ASAP, likely within 12-18 months at best. Because otherwise I don't know how we don't keep cycling through these response measures, if they're effective the virus will always have a chance to come back to a given population after the measures are lifted (saw an estimate that that could happen every 2-6 months).
              "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

              Comment


              • TheWaterboy wrote: View Post

                The what-if-it-gets-worse part is that unchecked spread of the virus over time will result in so many cases at once that it will overwhelm the medical system - and in particular, hospitals, given that about 1 in 5 cases require hospitalization. If I'm not mistaken, New York identified about 1,000 more infected cases in the last 24 hours, of which we can expect 200 cases to require hospitalization... and if New York is identifying 1,000 case in 24 hours, and the virus is transmitted by every infected person who is in the population an average of about twice, and there are 1,000 more cases out there where the infection was transmitted from these people.... it's not a pretty picture. New York, Washington, and California are all much closer than they want to be to the situation in Italy where the medical system was overwhelmed.

                On top of this, difficulties and delays with deploying testing in the US mean that testing is way behind what it should be there, and there are places in the US where the scope of infection is probably not known. The Covid Tracking Project (https://covidtracking.com/data/) collates the best available testing data from all 50 states, and the high number of infected people compared to the low number of tests overall in Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio suggest that there are a lot of people in the community who have Covid-19 and don't know it yet.

                Is there any Canadian province in the Italy scenario? Not yet, but the spread of Covid needs to be contained effectively soon in BC, Ontario, and possibly Alberta and Quebec before it becomes too difficult to control.
                The clogging of the health system is for sure a problem. Especially if people are overly scared going to the hospital any time they or someone near them has a stuffed nose. I know at least in my community (and most likely everywhere) people have been told not to do that. Do you have a link for the 1 in 5 cases needing hospitalization? (Not doubting it, just wondering about a good source to track that). Last I heard is that in over 80% of the cases there are no symptoms at all, with the other 20% ranging from very mild symptoms, to "I'm staying in bed today", to true hospital cases.

                A 20% (1 in 5) true hospitalization cases (where the patient requires a respirator, intubation etc..) seems high and probably very skewed towards age 80+ where patients are more frail with other co-conditions that require periodic hospital visits. That may have changed though, respiratory illnesses vary a lot in severity from place to place and person to person.
                2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

                Comment


                • S.R. wrote: View Post

                  But even at current infection and mortality rates and with current procedures/lockdowns in place, the current projections are millions of people will still die from this. The unchecked global projection for zero response, just let it run its course, was that we'd have more deaths than from WWII. Even with moderate responses, projections are for tens of millions of deaths. Even with more stringent responses (self-isolation, non-essential business shuttered, travel restrictions), US projections are for 2 million deaths.

                  .
                  How can that be when China is starting to see light at the end of the tunnel? They reported 0 local deaths for the first time, and they have still not approached 3300 deaths...and yet you're claiming 2 million in America alone? By when? I just don't see it
                  It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                  Comment


                  • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                    The clogging of the health system is for sure a problem. Especially if people are overly scared going to the hospital any time they or someone near them has a stuffed nose. I know at least in my community (and most likely everywhere) people have been told not to do that. Do you have a link for the 1 in 5 cases needing hospitalization? (Not doubting it, just wondering about a good source to track that). Last I heard is that in over 80% of the cases there are no symptoms at all, with the other 20% ranging from very mild symptoms, to "I'm staying in bed today", to true hospital cases.

                    A 20% (1 in 5) true hospitalization cases (where the patient requires a respirator, intubation etc..) seems high and probably very skewed towards age 80+ where patients are more frail with other co-conditions that require periodic hospital visits. That may have changed though, respiratory illnesses vary a lot in severity from place to place and person to person.
                    Your numbers are correct. 1 in 5 requiring hospitalization is a huge exaggeration. Fear mongering seems to be the method of delivering information though.
                    It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                    Comment


                    • DanH wrote: View Post

                      The problem is the word "identified." Just because people aren't testing for it or showing symptoms doesn't mean they don't have it.
                      True, but that's why after 2 weeks, the time you are expected to self isolate to identify whether you have symptoms, you should know if you might be infected right? So theoretically in 3-4 weeks of everyone being symptom free the virus should be dead? I'm asking not saying because really I'm not sure. The real problem I see is reaching out to everyone. All you need is one person who is just clueless like the old lady who cleans at the building where I work to show up to work sick as she did today. I shouldn't say clueless because I know she won't be paid to stay home and she isn't in a great financial situation, but you could be putting everyone else in the building at risk.

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                      • LJ2 wrote: View Post

                        True, but that's why after 2 weeks, the time you are expected to self isolate to identify whether you have symptoms, you should know if you might be infected right? So theoretically in 3-4 weeks of everyone being symptom free the virus should be dead? I'm asking not saying because really I'm not sure. The real problem I see is reaching out to everyone. All you need is one person who is just clueless like the old lady who cleans at the building where I work to show up to work sick as she did today. I shouldn't say clueless because I know she won't be paid to stay home and she isn't in a great financial situation, but you could be putting everyone else in the building at risk.
                        You just said it. The little old lady can't afford time off, and Trudeaus assistance plan may not reach her in time. It is simply not a reality for a large % of people that others don't seem to grasp. This country simply isn't designed to shut down for 3 or 4 weeks. A large % of Canadians would run out of money in a big hurry, even with Justins little packages. And when that happens, the desperation kicks in. Then lookout.
                        It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                        Comment


                        • KeonClark wrote: View Post
                          How can that be when China is starting to see light at the end of the tunnel? They reported 0 local deaths for the first time, and they have still not approached 3300 deaths...and yet you're claiming 2 million in America alone? By when? I just don't see it
                          I should edit that, memory recall failure - 2 million was a worst case scenario prediction for the US https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...rojections-us/

                          Predictions do vary widely and are being updated constantly because in so many ways the data feeding into them is all over the place and being updated itself every day.

                          But sure, China - China's response was severe, though late. Which shows two things - an early response is critical and a severe response is almost non-optional. Do nothing and you'll be Milan, where the death rate hits 5-6% because you don't have the health care infrastructure to handle all the hospitalizations.

                          The "it's not that bad though" attitude leads directly to a scenario that is that bad, already played out in Wuhan and northern Italy. Maybe severe responses do lead to a much more positive outcome than current models predict - but that'll only happen through severe mitigation responses. You can't have both "it's not that bad" and "what's with the overreactions." You get to pick one or the other, react late or inadequately and you can be Wuhan or Milan, react early and/or severely and you can be Taiwan. But you won't get to be both relaxed/unconcerned about it and unaffected by it at the same time.

                          And all that is just discussing the first few months of infection. Where this all leads to 6-24 months from now is up in the air.
                          "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                          • KeonClark wrote: View Post

                            You just said it. The little old lady can't afford time off, and Trudeaus assistance plan may not reach her in time. It is simply not a reality for a large % of people that others don't seem to grasp. This country simply isn't designed to shut down for 3 or 4 weeks. A large % of Canadians would run out of money in a big hurry, even with Justins little packages. And when that happens, the desperation kicks in. Then lookout.
                            Yeah the economic impact of this (a lot of it self-inflicted) has been getting little attention. Plenty of White Knights online with the blank "wtf are you doing outside, everyone should be quarantined!". Meanwhile, they're also fully expecting to have a stable supply of food, clean water, electricity, internet, prompt quality health care, safe streets, garbage processing, indefinite EI, and all the other modern life conveniences. Guess what, for better or worse that requires people to get out and work.

                            I think many people (not everyone of course), especially young people in large urban centres that do everything from a computer, have lost touch with what's actually required to make a 1st world society work. To provide the very things they come to expect and now take for granted. Once they start actually losing some of these things they'll change their tune. Government needs to balance the virus spread with the fundamental need to keep society functioning, and that's not a blank "Quarantine for everyone".
                            2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                            • KeonClark wrote: View Post

                              You just said it. The little old lady can't afford time off, and Trudeaus assistance plan may not reach her in time. It is simply not a reality for a large % of people that others don't seem to grasp. This country simply isn't designed to shut down for 3 or 4 weeks. A large % of Canadians would run out of money in a big hurry, even with Justins little packages. And when that happens, the desperation kicks in. Then lookout.
                              I'm not sure what the alternative is here Keon.

                              Comment


                              • S.R. wrote: View Post
                                Sure, the economic impact is going to be huge and will directly affect millions of people that may not have been directly affected by the virus itself (other than the minor symptoms for themselves or someone they're close to) - a bunch of them will go "WTF, overreaction!"

                                But even at current infection and mortality rates and with current procedures/lockdowns in place, the current projections are millions of people will still die from this. The unchecked global projection for zero response, just let it run its course, was that we'd have more deaths than from WWII. Even with moderate responses, projections are for tens of millions of deaths. Even with more stringent responses (self-isolation, non-essential business shuttered, travel restrictions), US projections are for 2 million deaths.

                                Sure all those variables can swing widely depending what you input for assumptions, but make adjustments however you want and you're still looking at millions of deaths with severe preventative measures having the capacity to save millions of lives. Yes, it is that signficant.

                                And yes, the economic impact will be massive. This will be the worst recession of our lifetime for most of us and will take years to recover from.

                                The biggest hope is for a vaccine ASAP, likely within 12-18 months at best. Because otherwise I don't know how we don't keep cycling through these response measures, if they're effective the virus will always have a chance to come back to a given population after the measures are lifted (saw an estimate that that could happen every 2-6 months).
                                I don't want to err on the cavalier side of things because I think this is serious, but I still highly doubt we see 2 million US deaths after the "stringent responses" you quoted.

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