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  • G__Deane wrote: View Post

    I don't want to err on the cavalier side of things because I think this is serious, but I still highly doubt we see 2 million US deaths after the "stringent responses" you quoted.
    Yeah I misquoted that, that's a worst case scenario projection.
    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

    Comment


    • S.R. wrote: View Post

      Yeah I misquoted that, that's a worst case scenario projection.
      For regular U.S. flu comparison: CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 7, 2020, there have been:

      36,000,000 – 51,000,000
      flu illnesses


      17,000,000 – 24,000,000
      flu medical visits


      370,000 – 670,000
      flu hospitalizations


      22,000 – 55,000
      flu deaths


      Comment


      • G__Deane wrote: View Post

        For regular U.S. flu comparison: CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 7, 2020, there have been:

        36,000,000 – 51,000,000
        flu illnesses


        17,000,000 – 24,000,000
        flu medical visits


        370,000 – 670,000
        flu hospitalizations


        22,000 – 55,000
        flu deaths


        Please don't equate/compare this to the flu. Unless your point was to point out that the flu is not as significant as this given the roughly 0.1 % morbidity you quote. Even the ardent supporters of that argument have gone by the wayside. It is something that is 10x as deadly (best case scenario) and much more contagious. Just because bad thing "x" does "y", it doesn't mean it's the same or worse or better. This is different. But a great reminder to get your flu shot.
        Last edited by Jclaw; Fri Mar 20th, 2020, 11:52 AM.

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        • HogieTime wrote: View Post
          I really do not understand why we did not ban all travel to China when this virus originally broke out. And then when it started going to other countries we should of banned all travel outside Canada. It was the last thing we did...

          How long are we going to be able to have everything shut down though? Eventually business's are going to go broke. Eventually the world must go on,I don't think the government can afford to pay people to stay home for a year, and alot of people can't afford to stay out of work for that long without help.

          I do feel for the people that are or have family or friends that are ill or elderly that live with them. Definitely a scary time for them.
          That's another one I don't understand. We're literally treating this like the most serious thing to happen to this planet in nearly 80 years, maybe more, and yet we never found it maybe a good idea to STOP it before it spread?
          It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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          • KeonClark wrote: View Post

            That's another one I don't understand. We're literally treating this like the most serious thing to happen to this planet in nearly 80 years, maybe more, and yet we never found it maybe a good idea to STOP it before it spread?
            Singling out China would have been xenophobic and Trudeau's policy is open arms and open borders. I'm like 99% sure this global PR type of thinking factored into Justin's lack of quick action, in addition to his general incompetence.

            Comment


            • Jclaw wrote: View Post

              Please don't equate/compare this to the flu. Unless your point was to point out that the flu is not as significant as this given the roughly 0.1 % morbidity you quote. Even the ardent supporters of that argument have gone by the wayside. It is something that is 10x as deadly (best case scenario) and much more contagious. Just because bad thing "x" does "y", it doesn't mean it's the same or worse or better. This is different. But a great reminder to get your flu shot.
              I get that.. but there have only been 10 confirmed deaths in all of Canada. So the numbers don't really add up. We really only started the social isolating since last week too. Is it really as bad as they say? Or are the stats flawed?

              Trying not to make it seem bigger than it is.. but the evidence (ie, death rate) isn't really worrisome to me so far. And I think that's probably why some people are still ignoring what the authorities are saying.

              Comment


              • golden wrote: View Post

                Singling out China would have been xenophobic and Trudeau's policy is open arms and open borders. I'm like 99% sure this global PR type of thinking factored into Justin's lack of quick action, in addition to his general incompetence.
                What's weird is that even still the government mandated travel restrictions are against foreigners coming to Canada, while nearly all the initial cases were imported by Canadians travelling abroad then coming home. It's Canadian travel that would have needed to have been restricted ASAP - and at a time when most Canadians were joking about this. Would have been a tough call to close the borders a month ago.

                I wonder if they didn't bother because on a certain level, it coming to your neighbourhood was always inevitable. Generally provincial and federal governments have been preparing for several months, even before the first cases showed up here. The measures being implemented now in Canada are also the same ones being implemented now in countries with thousands of cases instead of hundreds. The Canadian response to date has been ahead of most other countries relative to the number of local cases, we'll see how that impacts things.
                Last edited by S.R.; Fri Mar 20th, 2020, 01:28 PM.
                "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

                Comment


                • planetmars wrote: View Post

                  I get that.. but there have only been 10 confirmed deaths in all of Canada. So the numbers don't really add up. We really only started the social isolating since last week too. Is it really as bad as they say? Or are the stats flawed?

                  Trying not to make it seem bigger than it is.. but the evidence (ie, death rate) isn't really worrisome to me so far. And I think that's probably why some people are still ignoring what the authorities are saying.
                  “Some people” are idiots who are endangering the rest of us, and the economy, because they think they’re smarter than doctors and epidemiologists. Sorry, but we’re well past the point of debating the potential seriousness of this. Just do what you’re told. If it turns out that everything is back to normal by May 1, I’m sure everyone will be happy to take your “I told you so”.
                  Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

                  Comment


                  • S.R. wrote: View Post

                    What's weird is that even still the government mandated travel restrictions are against foreigners coming to Canada, while nearly all the initial cases were imported by Canadians travelling abroad then coming home. It's Canadian travel that would have needed to have been restricted ASAP - and at a time when most Canadians were joking about this. Would have been a tough call to close the borders a month ago.

                    I wonder if they didn't bother because on a certain level, it coming to your neighbourhood was always inevitable. Generally provincial and federal governments have been preparing for several months, even before the first cases showed up here. The measures being implemented now in Canada are also the same ones being implemented now in countries with thousands of cases instead of hundreds. The Canadian response to date has been ahead of most other countries relative to the number of local cases, we'll see how that impacts things.
                    They could have implemented mandatory 14 day self-quarantine for ALL incoming travelers instead of just those people they airlifted from Wuhan. That would have been a strong & effective, but reasonable measure.

                    Gotta remember, though, at that time Trudeau was taking it up the *** from the professional protesters disguised as First Nations supporters.

                    Comment


                    • jimmie wrote: View Post

                      “Some people” are idiots who are endangering the rest of us, and the economy, because they think they’re smarter than doctors and epidemiologists. Sorry, but we’re well past the point of debating the potential seriousness of this. Just do what you’re told. If it turns out that everything is back to normal by May 1, I’m sure everyone will be happy to take your “I told you so”.
                      Yes, true.. but most people are idiots. If we had more deaths more people would probably listen. It's just human nature. So my point is that this will not subside quickly.. not unless we have military and cops on the streets patrolling people and forcing them to go inside and avoid other people.

                      Comment


                      • planetmars wrote: View Post

                        I get that.. but there have only been 10 confirmed deaths in all of Canada. So the numbers don't really add up. We really only started the social isolating since last week too. Is it really as bad as they say? Or are the stats flawed?

                        Trying not to make it seem bigger than it is.. but the evidence (ie, death rate) isn't really worrisome to me so far. And I think that's probably why some people are still ignoring what the authorities are saying.
                        In Italy it is. They had like 427 deaths in one freaking day! It's completely out of control over there so we better hope and pray people take it seriously here.

                        Comment


                        • LJ2 wrote: View Post

                          In Italy it is. They had like 427 deaths in one freaking day! It's completely out of control over there so we better hope and pray people take it seriously here.
                          Italy has 10% death rate at the moment, but it looks like they are testing only serious cases, most 20 yr olds go untested

                          Comment


                          • rocwell wrote: View Post

                            Italy has 10% death rate at the moment, but it looks like they are testing only serious cases, most 20 yr olds go untested
                            The whole world has a 10% Mortality Rate to the COVID-19. 100,000 cases have been closed, and 10,000 deaths have been recorded. (actually, just checked, now 11% ...)

                            This is my go to Site for the stats: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

                            And it used to be going up by like 5,000 cases per day ... now it's going up by like 35,000 cases per day.
                            Last edited by Joey; Fri Mar 20th, 2020, 03:49 PM.

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                            • There are 60M people living in Italy. Current stats show 4032 deaths over there.
                              https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

                              So the 10% is misleading.. that's just for people tested. 4032 into 60M is tiny. And that's I think why some casuals don't take this seriously.

                              Comment


                              • LJ2 wrote: View Post

                                In Italy it is. They had like 427 deaths in one freaking day! It's completely out of control over there so we better hope and pray people take it seriously here.
                                Early signs that the "curve is flattening".

                                Cumulative COVID-19 cases (n=337) in Canada by date of symptom onset as of March 19, 2020, 8:30 AM EST.


                                This is similar to data published in the Globe and Mail showing the number or new cases reported peaked Monday or Tuesday with subsequent 3 data points (days) lower...

                                Time will tell if the measures taken by governments across Canada and around the world are consistent with the threat. My view is that it is much better to overact than to underact when the science and severity of the threat remains largely unknown.

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