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  • planetmars wrote: View Post
    Was the death rate ever really a concern? I think it's more about the overloading of our health care systems. Hospitals getting overrun. Staff getting sick and not being able to help. Running low or out of critical medical supplies.
    Yes, hospitalization rate is just as important as mortality rate. Hospitalizations will also impact every non-coronavirus patient who needs hospital care once we run out of beds. Then you have a climbing mortality rate because people aren't getting needed care. It's the Italy problem.
    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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    • Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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      • Now we have to see what "qualifying businesses" encompasses
        The name's Bond, James Bond.

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        • I think people who are not concerned because of death rate percentage overestimate what our health care system can actually handle.
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          • Almost 1000 dead in last 24 hours in Italy
            The name's Bond, James Bond.

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            • 007 wrote: View Post
              Almost 1000 dead in last 24 hours in Italy
              https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

              9,134 deaths and 10,950 recoveries. Shit is crazy. that's like three 9/11s of people dying
              Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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              • planetmars wrote: View Post
                Was the death rate ever really a concern? I think it's more about the overloading of our health care systems. Hospitals getting overrun. Staff getting sick and not being able to help. Running low or out of critical medical supplies.

                Anyone know anybody that works in a hospital? How are things going in Canada? I'm hearing horror stories in the States, but nothing critical here. At least not in Ontario. But I'm on the outskirts of the GTA. I mean as an example my wife's doctor is calling her about something completely unrelated and mild.. just a casual check up. If she has the time to do that, it can't be that bad, right?
                My wife is a nurse. Things are of course different from place to place, but here she hasn't had to deal with cases yet. She tells me they're all geared up for this surge, but nothing significant so far. What she's seeing though, is an uptick in mental health issues, domestic violence, alcohol related things etc.. Things that happen when routines are drastically changed, when people's livelihood are gone, when your ability to gather to cope is judged, when kids are at home with no school and parents gotta homeschool while hoping the government money come soon etc.. You know, mostly the stuff that's not sexy enough to make the news but is real.

                But as far as hospital capacity, she says things are fine, at least so far. She told there was a lady that showed up asking if she could be swabbed (tested), so she could see her grandkids in a town an hour and a half away. She told me that with a smile but people are scared to death.

                As for hospital rate vs fatality rate, they're related. The fatality will happen in the hospital. So when talking about increase/decrease/significance of one, it also applies to the other. It's just that when the death rate is shown in a not "high enough" light to properly deter people into isolation, then it's "but what about the hospitalization and overload?". My understanding is patients with it are not going to be interned in the hospital for months and months taking up space. It's an acute respiratory condition (as opposed to chronic, long-term care for which new hospital wings need to be built every year). For this the patient typically comes in, receives the acute pulmonary/care ventilation needed, and either unfortunately passes relatively quickly, or like the vast majority of cases, recovers within a couple of weeks and frees up the bed.
                2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                • KeonClark wrote: View Post

                  OK, so now that they've achieved linear growth, what's the next step?
                  Wait more than a few days to know what the actual trend is going to be long term instead of wondering whether we should just sacrifice lives because this progress isn't good enough for you? Linear growth can be completely sustainable if they can get people leaving the hospital at the same rate and keep the total cases below the threshold of the health system capacity.
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                  • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                    My wife is a nurse. Things are of course different from place to place, but here she hasn't had to deal with cases yet. She tells me they're all geared up for this surge, but nothing significant so far. What she's seeing though, is an uptick in mental health issues, domestic violence, alcohol related things etc.. Things that happen when routines are drastically changed, when people's livelihood are gone, when your ability to gather to cope is judged, when kids are at home with no school and parents gotta homeschool while hoping the government money come soon etc.. You know, mostly the stuff that's not sexy enough to make the news but is real.

                    But as far as hospital capacity, she says things are fine, at least so far. She told there was a lady that showed up asking if she could be swabbed (tested), so she could see her grandkids in a town an hour and a half away. She told me that with a smile but people are scared to death.

                    As for hospital rate vs fatality rate, they're related. The fatality will happen in the hospital. So when talking about increase/decrease/significance of one, it also applies to the other. It's just that when the death rate is shown in a not "high enough" light to properly deter people into isolation, then it's "but what about the hospitalization and overload?". My understanding is patients with it are not going to be interned in the hospital for months and months taking up space. It's an acute respiratory condition (as opposed to chronic, long-term care for which new hospital wings need to be built every year). For this the patient typically comes in, receives the acute pulmonary/care ventilation needed, and either unfortunately passes relatively quickly, or like the vast majority of cases, recovers within a couple of weeks and frees up the bed.
                    It very much depends on where you are. My sister in law works in a hospital that is already being pushed to its limits and is losing nurses to COVID symptoms left and right, her included (she's in 14 day quarantine now).

                    Death rate as you note is totally dependent on resource supply, which is why using a generic death rate is not indicative of the potential death rate, at all. It will vary depending on ventilators and other resource availability.

                    That's the whole point of literally everything that's being done. People only need to be in the hospital for a few weeks at most. If we keep the number of cases low enough such that the hospital can handle the people that need treatment, we'll all mostly be OK. If we don't, we can't project how badly the death rate will turn.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                      You got a point. I'm not sure if the numbers are exactly as you put it, but the principle is right:

                      --There are likely hundreds of thousands of people that have it, don't get tested and recover it. That would push the true fatality (and hospitalization) rate down (testing typically happens on on patients with symptoms or higher risk of exposure, which would inflate the rate of both hospitalizations and fatalities due to it)

                      --The number of tests is also going up rapidly worldwide, as science tries to get a better grasp of it. More testing will yield more cases on the spreadsheet. It'd be nice to see a graph that superimpose both, so we could get a corrected rate for the actual increase, rather than an inflated increase due to more testing.

                      --It would also be nice if there were more graphs out there showing the the number of current cases, rather than just new cases. For every 10 new cases, theres also a number a number of people that recovered are not contagious anymore, limiting the spread.

                      Like any complex data, there's several ways to look at it. A lot of times people cherry-pick data to support their message, while excluding/dismissing data that offends their theory. We've seen it countless of times on this very forum when talking basketball. Data is best used when it's impartial, but it's hardly ever used like that.
                      You do know this is true of all sicknesses like this though, right? How many flu cases do you think are actually diagnosed each year?
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                      • UK was pushing for herd immunity solution but then backed out once they realized what was at stake.
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                        • MixxAOR wrote: View Post
                          UK was pushing for herd immunity solution but then backed out once they realized what was at stake.
                          It's such a silly idea (or interpretation of the idea). Herd immunity is the plan here too. But you can't get herd immunity until people get past the disease, and the only way to safely spread the disease across the entire population is as slowly as possible (or wait for a vaccine), otherwise your herd immunity comes at the cost of a huge number of lives.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • Scraptor wrote: View Post

                            Jesus Christ people are stupid. This whole crisis has made me realize that people are far far stupider than I thought.
                            Stupid or selfish? I tend to lean toward selfish. It's a me first world.

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                            • SkywalkerAC wrote:
                              What we're working to avoid, just tragic. I can't...

                              Video is already gone, unless you uploaded it incorrectly...

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                              • Let's try that again with a different link:

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