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  • bertarapsfan wrote: View Post

    I dont think how we are living right now is going to be the norm for a couple months. I think we will start to get good news over the next couple weeks and maybe 14 days from now "essential services" will be expanded by a bit to get a few more place running at regular operations. After that i can see slowly trying to return to normalcy every 14 days (In order to gauge how we can handle the changes).

    But for sure something are going to be a long term. School of any sort is not happening till fall, International travel will be off the table all summer. Big events will not take place for a long time.
    Something i could see becoming the new norm is how illness is treated for at least the next few years in order to prevent a 2nd outbreak. Once testing is widely available and we have survived the 1st wave. If you have flu like symptoms you get tested immediately, If your are positive for corona it will be treated like an STD and you will be required to get into contact with everyone who had physical contact with and they must get tested.

    I dont think a vaccine is anywhere on the horizon. SARS and MERS both Corona virus have yet to have been able to find vaccines and they have been trying for 10+ years. We may be looking at a situation where we have to change how we as society deal with sickness or find medicine to improve recovery but i wouldn't counting on a vaccine to sweep in and save the day
    Almost as important as a vaccine will be the development of some kind of cheap, immediate (or almost) testing kit. Perfect world it would be an at home kit like a pregnancy test, but could also be a while you wait test at your local clinic or hospital. That would allow us to ID and isolate future cases ASAP, which would prevent the kind of waves requiring broad whole society responses like we've got right now.

    Do that and develop a vaccine and we could get rid of this thing.
    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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    • So, what are some of the odd/strange/curious things you guys noticed in other people's behaviour during the pandemic lockdown (if any)?

      Someone donated $300 worth of food from the local Boston Pizza to the hospital in appreciation for the hard work of the staff there. It got turned away (refused) for fear of the virus. The nurses were pretty upset that the nice gesture was rejected.

      A food processing company donated food (brand new of course, not leftovers) to local senior homes. Also got rejected. Even charity can be frowned upon these days. Gotta buy people toilet paper I guess, but even then they might get scared.
      2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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      • inthepaint wrote: View Post
        So, what are some of the odd/strange/curious things you guys noticed in other people's behaviour during the pandemic lockdown (if any)?

        Someone donated $300 worth of food from the local Boston Pizza to the hospital in appreciation for the hard work of the staff there. It got turned away (refused) for fear of the virus. The nurses were pretty upset that the nice gesture was rejected.

        A food processing company donated food (brand new of course, not leftovers) to local senior homes. Also got rejected. Even charity can be frowned upon these days. Gotta buy people toilet paper I guess, but even then they might get scared.
        It's crazy but anything I buy from store (I wear gloves when shopping) after my iso ends or thats delivered to house is wiped down before it comes in. With a 78 year old mom(staying with us since dad in hospital longterm), a wife & 3 kids i can't afford to take chances. Even when i return to work at my hospital this week when I return all clothes come off by side door. Shoes will be left outside in a bag). Not being paranoid just trying to discipline myself in order to protect, especially working in the hospital environment.

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        • Not trying to downplay the potential severity of the situation but currently
          if active cases go up by a factor of 7, we'll have reached ......1/10 of 1% of the population affected.

          I can't picture 1/7 of a 1/10 of a percent, but I think it's pretty small.

          Of the active cases, 98% are classified as "in mild condition" and daily new cases have leveled off in the 5-700 range. This is for all of Canada so would take more than a month to get to that 1/10 of 1% of the population.

          Today they announced that gathering in groups exceeding 5 is verboten. They don't appear to be enforcing that anecdotally. What steps get taken if active cases should ever increase 7 fold to reach 1/10 of 1% of the population? A factor of 10X more to reach 1%? With 98% of them mild conditions .....

          Isn't night time curfews or Marshall Law (enforced isolation) the next step? I doubt we get there in Canada.

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          • G__Deane wrote: View Post
            Not trying to downplay the potential severity of the situation but currently
            if active cases go up by a factor of 7, we'll have reached ......1/10 of 1% of the population affected.

            I can't picture 1/7 of a 1/10 of a percent, but I think it's pretty small.

            Of the active cases, 98% are classified as "in mild condition" and daily new cases have leveled off in the 5-700 range. This is for all of Canada so would take more than a month to get to that 1/10 of 1% of the population.

            Today they announced that gathering in groups exceeding 5 is verboten. They don't appear to be enforcing that anecdotally. What steps get taken if active cases should ever increase 7 fold to reach 1/10 of 1% of the population? A factor of 10X more to reach 1%? With 98% of them mild conditions .....

            Isn't night time curfews or Marshall Law (enforced isolation) the next step? I doubt we get there in Canada.
            The whole point of everything we are doing is to prevent having to go to a full lockdown like so many other countries have had to do.

            And all those numbers look very small but it takes only a very small percentage of the population sick at the same time to overwhelm the medical system. Looking at the numbers simplistically and saying "golly that's small" is the sort of nonsense that can inform behavior in the public that we need to avoid.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • Canada's testing system is f'd up. We need to have a conversation about globalization after this pandemic. Some of the supply chains that are critical to national security and national HEALTH security should be kept away from globalization.

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              • rocwell wrote: View Post
                Canada's testing system is f'd up. We need to have a conversation about globalization after this pandemic. Some of the supply chains that are critical to national security and national HEALTH security should be kept away from globalization.
                Many of them ARE. It's a question of what makes the list. And that's a discussion well worth having.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • rocwell wrote: View Post
                  Canada's testing system is f'd up. We need to have a conversation about globalization after this pandemic. Some of the supply chains that are critical to national security and national HEALTH security should be kept away from globalization.

                  Three separate issues. One, health reporting in Canada is not good between provinces.

                  Two, not everyone is tested. My colleague got very sick to the point where they told him to go into emergency. He went in. Doc looked at him for 5 seconds told him he had it. They checked him out, gave him some meds, sent him home, told him to come back if certain things happen. He asked if he should be tested and doc told him they don't have enough to test everyone so are saving them for cases they need to admit/confirm. Good news seems to be that they now can recognize this straightaway and have some treatments.

                  And we absolutely need to bring things home. As I've been saying, our institutions and experts have been failing for years and have left us completely unprepared for crises. Whether anything changes will depend on whether those people are held accountable and replaced with better people and new infrastructure is built and maintained. Some countries will make changes, I have little confidence Canada will do so.

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                  • DanH wrote: View Post

                    The whole point of everything we are doing is to prevent having to go to a full lockdown like so many other countries have had to do.

                    And all those numbers look very small but it takes only a very small percentage of the population sick at the same time to overwhelm the medical system. Looking at the numbers simplistically and saying "golly that's small" is the sort of nonsense that can inform behavior in the public that we need to avoid.
                    That's actually what you took from the post? smh
                    You don't have to tell me why we're doing this, I think we're all aware and I have a contract with 18 medical clinics that are all currently open across Canada. I was forced to wear a N95 mask before 99% of the country had heard about COVID.

                    And I'm interested what "so many countries" have had to go to a full lockdown?

                    I went to find a list and came up with India, China, France, Italy, New Zealand, Poland, and the UK. But among them, we know China is easing restrictions and it wasn't "China" but selected cities to begin with. And the UK for example, still allows outings for exercise and groceries, doctor visits etc. Again, no "full lockdown", more like what we're already experiencing here.

                    As I said, and you evidently glossed over in order to support a snarky remark, I'm wondering what numbers it would take to go to night time curfews and then full Marshall Law since the numbers are still remarkably small to the potential.

                    .00018 of the population so far.

                    "Martial law is the imposition of direct military control of normal civilian functions by a government, especially in response to a temporary emergency such as invasion or major disaster, or in an occupied territory."
                    Last edited by G__Deane; Mon Mar 30th, 2020, 01:34 PM.

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                    • Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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                      • G__Deane wrote: View Post

                        That's actually what you took from the post? smh
                        Yes. What sentiment were you intending to express, because the sentiment that comes across is doubt about whether the measures being taken are appropriate, and whether they may increase further, based on some contextless percentages.
                        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                        • MixxAOR wrote: View Post

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                          • Read an interesting article about the outbreak in Italy. Apparently they had a three times higher incidence of respiratory problems than the European average, possibly because the average age of Italians is higher and the incidence of cigarette smoking is higher as well. And northern Italy has a high concentration of Chinese textile workers in textile mills owned and run by Chinese. A large number of the workers went back to Wuhan to celebrate the lunar new year. And then returned. As the news about the outbreak in Wuhan hit the media, people started shunning the Chinese workers. Various groups started commenting on racism. So the mayor of the major city in the center of the textile district opened up a "Hug a Chinese" movement. That is the short version as I read it. This may be old news, but I have only heard pieces of it before today's article. Sorry, no link. I read through so much stuff a day I don't expect to be able to find it easily. And I don't have time. A lot more COVID-19 stuff to read.

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                            • Puffer wrote: View Post
                              Read an interesting article about the outbreak in Italy. Apparently they had a three times higher incidence of respiratory problems than the European average, possibly because the average age of Italians is higher and the incidence of cigarette smoking is higher as well. And northern Italy has a high concentration of Chinese textile workers in textile mills owned and run by Chinese. A large number of the workers went back to Wuhan to celebrate the lunar new year. And then returned. As the news about the outbreak in Wuhan hit the media, people started shunning the Chinese workers. Various groups started commenting on racism. So the mayor of the major city in the center of the textile district opened up a "Hug a Chinese" movement. That is the short version as I read it. This may be old news, but I have only heard pieces of it before today's article. Sorry, no link. I read through so much stuff a day I don't expect to be able to find it easily. And I don't have time. A lot more COVID-19 stuff to read.
                              There are all sorts of theories and things online, and these days with people sitting around at home with time on their hands, even more. All that stuff you mentioned is plausible though (it's known for sure that Italy is the oldest country in Europe, and close to 30% of the adult male population smokes, higher in the older cohorts). Even though it's hard to know for sure what's real and what's not these days, you can tell what happened in Italy was atypical. It was the perfect social-cultural-demographic-weather/climate storm.
                              2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                              • Toronto Mayor announced minimum $750 and up to $5000 fines for violating rules not to gather in public places.

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