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  • LJ2 wrote: View Post

    I'm not calling anyone anything, but look how much has changed in Canada and globally from the time the information on that Global News link you attached was originally reported. 20,000 cases reported globally at the start of February to now nearly a million in just two months. That's not media driving hysteria.
    The first link above is current and the stats provided are as of today. So is this one.
    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/

    A million out of more than 7B is what? Answer: less than 1.4%
    2% of the 1.4% are serious.

    Serious and worthy of precautions, yes.
    Deserving of "media driven hysteria". No

    Deserving of hoarding TP and booze? No
    Deserving of hoarding virus masks and depriving the medical community of same? No
    Deserving of panicking the majority of the population who are not at great risk? No

    Numerically worse than the number of normal deaths individually from car accidents (18X COVID so far)? No
    Numerically worse than the number of normal deaths by suicide (38X COVID so far)? No
    Numerically worse than the number of normal deaths via a normal flu season (85X COVID so far)? No

    Numbers could easily get worse but you are allowed to acknowledge current factual stats away from emotional response and still take this very seriously. But many will just keep quoting the morning news and say X new cases today, X new deaths while wringing their hands and forgetting about context.

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    • G__Deane wrote: View Post

      The first link above is current and the stats provided are as of today. So is this one.
      https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/

      A million out of more than 7B is what? Answer: less than 1.4%
      2% of the 1.4% are serious.

      Serious and worthy of precautions, yes.
      Deserving of "media driven hysteria". No

      Deserving of hoarding TP and booze? No
      Deserving of hoarding virus masks and depriving the medical community of same? No
      Deserving of panicking the majority of the population who are not at great risk? No

      Numerically worse than the number of normal deaths individually from car accidents (18X COVID so far)? No
      Numerically worse than the number of normal deaths by suicide (38X COVID so far)? No
      Numerically worse than the number of normal deaths via a normal flu season (85X COVID so far)? No

      Numbers could easily get worse but you are allowed to acknowledge current factual stats away from emotional response and still take this very seriously. But many will just keep quoting the morning news and say X new cases today, X new deaths while wringing their hands and forgetting about context.
      You include the bolded as sort of a throw away point, but this IS the point. This could easily turn into hundreds of thousands sick dying in Canada alone. If we're talking globally, then we're looking at many millions sick, and millions dead. Take the precautions to avoid it getting there. If the numbers are low, that means what we are doing is working.

      Great line from that Contagion movie (not ver batum, but close enough) "The best case scenario is that we are seen to have overreacted ... that means it worked."

      To compare it to suicides and car accidents is irrelevant, because those aren't wildly contagious ...
      Last edited by Joey; Thu Apr 2nd, 2020, 11:32 AM.

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      • That's the standard fallback position though "over reacting is better than under reacting, right?"
        Sounds reasonable if you believe there are no alternatives

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        • G__Deane wrote: View Post
          That's the standard fallback position though "over reacting is better than under reacting, right?"
          Sounds reasonable if you believe there are no alternatives
          No fallback position. I just think you missed the point ... it's not actually an overreaction ... it's very much an appropriate reaction to a pandemic ... it just seems like an overreaction to some people because the measures actually worked and kept things under control.

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          • G__Deane wrote: View Post
            That's the standard fallback position though "over reacting is better than under reacting, right?"
            Sounds reasonable if you believe there are no alternatives
            Alternative is to aggressively test like South Korea did. But Canada doesn't have capacity to test people at that rate. So physical distancing it is.
            Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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            • Joey wrote: View Post

              You include the bolded as sort of a throw away point, but this IS the point. This could easily turn into hundreds of thousands sick dying in Canada alone. If we're talking globally, then we're looking at many millions sick, and millions dead. Take the precautions to avoid it getting there. If the numbers are low, that means what we are doing is working.

              Great line from that Contagion movie (not ver batum, but close enough) "The best case scenario is that we are seen to have overreacted ... that means it worked."

              To compare it to suicides and car accidents is irrelevant, because those aren't wildly contagious ...
              Exactly.

              Comment


              • MixxAOR wrote: View Post

                They lied about their deaths. Instead of reporting covid deaths they report pheunomia deaths. And they barely test anybody.

                All of the statements below can be reasonably made, depending on the point one's trying to make:

                ---They lied about their cases. They attributed many Coronavirus deaths to other respiratory/co-morbidities (Japan?)
                ---They lied about their cases. They attributed many other respiratory/co-morbidities deaths to Coronavirus (Italy?)

                ---They don't do enough testing. There are many Covid cases that go untested, so the true number of cases is a lot higher
                ---They don't do enough testing. Because many Covid cases don't get tested, lots of them recover without hitting the stats, so the true mortality rate is lower
                ---They don't test for the seasonal flu. Because of that the true number of cases is a lot higher, so in absolute numbers more people died of it then covid
                ---They don't test for the seasonal flu. Lots of them recover without hitting the stats, so its true mortality rate is much lower

                ---If something (anything) gets tested for more often, more cases (and trends, positives and negatives) will be found. What you focus on depends on what you want to focus on.
                2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                  All of the statements below can be reasonably made, depending on the point one's trying to make:

                  ---They lied about their cases. They attributed many Coronavirus deaths to other respiratory/co-morbidities (Japan?)
                  ---They lied about their cases. They attributed many other respiratory/co-morbidities deaths to Coronavirus (Italy?)

                  ---They don't do enough testing. There are many Covid cases that go untested, so the true number of cases is a lot higher
                  ---They don't do enough testing. Because many Covid cases don't get tested, lots of them recover without hitting the stats, so the true mortality rate is lower
                  ---They don't test for the seasonal flu. Because of that the true number of cases is a lot higher, so in absolute numbers more people died of it then covid
                  ---They don't test for the seasonal flu. Lots of them recover without hitting the stats, so its true mortality rate is much lower

                  ---If something (anything) gets tested for more often, more cases (and trends, positives and negatives) will be found. What you focus on depends on what you want to focus on.
                  Not before they go and spread it to countless other people.
                  Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

                  Comment


                  • Puffer wrote: View Post
                    This is really good article puffer thank you

                    We can see above that there’s very little upside to the American lockdown … so let’s look at the downside. First, the economic damage from the current insane “shelter-in-place” regulations designed to thwart the coronavirus is already huge—lost jobs, shuttered businesses, economic downturn, stock market losses. This doesn’t count the personal cost in things like increased suicides and domestic and other violence. The people who made the decision obviously were led by doctors, which was good, but they did not listen to economists or social scientists, which was lethal.

                    To partially compensate the populace for those stupendous economic losses, we’ve just thrown two TRILLION dollars in the general direction of the problem. That’s trillion with a “T”. Most people have no idea how much a trillion dollars is. Consider it this way.

                    Suppose you were an immortal who made so much money that you were able to spend a million dollars a day forever. In the first week, you buy 350 ventilators at $20,000 each and give them to the various states. The next day you buy 200,000 face masks at $5 a pop, epidemic prices. Then you decide to take a year and buy a field hospital every day, 365 of them at a million dollars each. That feels so good that you decide to set up full hospitals. They’re something like 1.5 million dollars per bed. So you can buy a 250-bed hospital per year. You spend the next two hundred years doing that, two hundred new hospitals, 50,000 new beds.

                    Now that’s only about a hundred years of spending a million bucks a day. Suppose further that you started spending one megabuck per day, that’s a full million dollars each and every day including weekends, back on January First way back in the Year One. And imagine that you spent a million dollars a day every day right up to the present, buying medical equipment, expanding medical schools, purchasing test kits, a million dollars a day from the year 1 right up to the year 2020.

                    Guess what …



                    … you still would have spent far less than a trillion dollars, only about three-quarters of a trillion. And to spend two trillion, you’d have to spend a million dollars a day for 5,500 years.

                    Can you imagine what our medical system would be like if we spent a million dollars a day on it for fifty-five-hundred years?

                    Instead, we’ve pissed the two trillion away on repairing the damage caused by the lockdown without getting the economy started again, plus wasting it on all the pork that got loaded onto the bill.
                    Last edited by KeonClark; Thu Apr 2nd, 2020, 12:55 PM.
                    It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                    Comment


                    • KeonClark wrote: View Post

                      This is really good article pufferSuppose you were an immortal who made so much money that you were able to spend a million dollars a day forever. In the first week, you buy 350 ventilators at $20,000 each and give them to the various states. The next day you buy 200,000 face masks at $5 a pop, epidemic prices. Then you decide to take a year and buy a field hospital every day, 365 of them at a million dollars each. That feels so good that you decide to set up full hospitals. They’re something like 1.5 million dollars per bed. So you can buy a 250-bed hospital per year. You spend the next two hundred years doing that, two hundred new hospitals, 50,000 new beds. thank you
                      350 Ventilators? What the heck is 350 Ventilators going to do when you need Hundreds of Thousands of them?
                      And again, 50,000 beds won't be enough when you have Millions of people getting this thing.
                      And Field Hospitals must cost more than Million Dollars to build and maintain. Hiring the staff to man them and all the equipment is far more than a million bucks a pop I would guess.

                      This isn't something you can just throw money at to make it go away.
                      Last edited by Joey; Thu Apr 2nd, 2020, 02:19 PM.

                      Comment


                      • That article is absolutely terrible.
                        very little upside to the lockdown? Are you serious?

                        Comment


                        • You cannot separate the economy from the pandemic. We need to stomp out the pandemic or else we will have much worse economic consequences that will last longer. Setting up a stopping the virus vs. protecting the economy is a false choice. Do both.

                          Having said that, we also need to be skeptical of all the modelling and predictions that are out there because the value of models in events like these are questionable at best, useless at worst. We should also be skeptical of, and hold accountable, our elected officials and public health authorities. We need to constantly question the public policy decisions being made and they need to be fully transparent and honest about their process and the underlying assumptions they are relying on when making decisions (whatever you think of them politically, the Americans are far better at this than Canada).

                          And finally, people who "believe" in science and disparage skeptics as deniers (trying to equate them to Holocaust deniers in a drive-by smear) can be immediately dismissed as unserious people. Science is not a religion to be believed in. Expert opinion can help guide decision-making but technocracy is not a viable governing philosophy. Anyone who wants to turn decision-making over entirely to the experts and their models need only look at January, February and most of March to see how disastrously our experts handled the current crisis.

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                          • Some interesting updates coming out of Italy as they realize what went wrong, they spread a lot of infection within hospitals and, once hospitals were overload, actually sent coronavirus patients to care homes to use the extra beds. Then the virus broke out in those care homes at a high mortality rate. That's effin nuts, whoever's idea that was.
                            "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                            • Rudy Bargnani wrote: View Post
                              That article is absolutely terrible.
                              very little upside to the lockdown? Are you serious?
                              It talks about the different countries, no matter the measures, the curves seem similiar. There's no proof this is even working.


                              It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                              Comment


                              • KeonClark wrote: View Post

                                This is really good article puffer thank you
                                Bailouts and war are both insane. The numbers are literally beyond comprehension but paid out in no time at all, dolla dolla bills y'all. Then the rest of the time everybody's arguing that there isn't a fraction of that money available for health care, education, or those getting left behind by your economy. At those times it's just "Pull up your boot straps folks, money don't grow on trees!"
                                "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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