Everything Coronavirus

[G__Deane]

They have alot of old people, and they like to socialize ... they had alot of soccer games prior to shutting them down so I assume it spread like wild fire there. This is all mostly speculation.

Also densely populated, huge tourist population, St Peter's Square etc

[KeonClark]

Also densely populated, huge tourist population, St Peter's Square etc

The numbers dropped for the first time in awhile yesterday, today they hit the 14 day mark of their lockdown..surely they should start a steady decline at this point

[Sonny]

They have alot of old people, and they like to socialize ... they had alot of soccer games prior to shutting them down so I assume it spread like wild fire there. This is all mostly speculation.

What about in Spain?

[Joey]

What about in Spain?

They're 3rd in the world in terms of deaths, and they're not much different than Italy, in terms of Demographics, early behaviours and heavy tourist activity, I wouldn't think.
Again, total speculation.

[inthepaint]

What about in Spain?

Spain and Italy are quite similar, culturally, demographically and even in terms of climate. Both with a balmy 5-11C range of temperature for a good part of the year that flu-type viruses like. They're both old countries, densely populated, highly social, with tons of tourists from all over the world, high rate of smoking, especially among older people (therefore higher rates of COPD etc..). There are a lot of these guys in Southern Europe:




EDIT: btw these guys above are really cool. They're jolly high spirited folks with kind hearts and lots of great stories to tell you. They live in a beautiful place in the world, and I hope this over soon so people can enjoy going there again.

[Joey]

14% of closed cases have been deaths ... up from like 6% only just over a week ago.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Not to mention 30,000 cases worldwide over added each of the last 4 days.

Anyone who isn't taking this seriously is exactly who Darwin was talking about.

2,500 cases added since I posted this 30 minutes ago ...

[slaw]

Logic would say that is true, but the politicians keep extending the dates. It started at 14 days, then it was a month, then 2 months, now you're hearing people talk about this being the new normal for up to a year. This is scary stuff.

Well, if it's a year then you'll be living in Escape From Calgary, so I hope you have guns and lots of ammo.....

Speaking of, we had some guys casing the neighbourhood last night. Apparently, this is happening all over town, which is weird cause everyone is at home(?), so keep your eyes open.

[inthepaint]

2,500 cases added since I posted this 30 minutes ago ...

Did that come from an actual increase in cases, an increase in testing/better reporting (which is getting better every day as health authrorities are looking for more and more data) or both? My guess is probably the latter. What I'm curious is the % of positive tests (and % of hospitalizations/deaths), more so than the raw number of new cases. That can be potentially inflated with just more testing (which is what we should be doing)

[S.R.]

Logic would say that is true, but the politicians keep extending the dates. It started at 14 days, then it was a month, then 2 months, now you're hearing people talk about this being the new normal for up to a year. This is scary stuff.

I think they've just been feeding people updates they can handle. By the time we were announcing 2 or 3 weeks of school closures here, the examples of countries a couple months ahead of us showed shut downs would be way more than 2 weeks. Politicians are partly trying to mitigate the public reaction and avoid mass panic. But it is also an emerging situation, they really are taking this day by day and reassessing constantly. We all are.

[S.R.]

Well, if it's a year then you'll be living in Escape From Calgary, so I hope you have guns and lots of ammo.....

Speaking of, we had some guys casing the neighbourhood last night. Apparently, this is happening all over town, which is weird cause everyone is at home(?), so keep your eyes open.

Really shitty times for Alberta. The floor dropping out of oil prices was enough for a recession already.

[inthepaint]

Really shitty times for Alberta. The floor dropping out of oil prices was enough for a recession already.

You got it. It's been shoot first, ask questions later.

A number I'd like to see get more press is the number of active, current cases at this time. A number that excludes people that already recovered from it. If the only number that gets press is how many cases we EVER had, that number is always gonna be going up and scaring people.

The reason that's relevant is that this is not an HIV-type infection where once a person contracts it they can spread it forever. This is a flu-like virus. You contract it, recover, develop a natural immunity for that strain and move on. There are new cases every day, but there are also recovered cases everyday. Would be nice to see the just net increase be talked about more, as opposed to just the raw increase. That's a less scary number though, so you're not gonna see it in the news very much.

[Joey]

You got it. It's been shoot first, ask questions later.

A number I'd like to see get more press is the number of active, current cases at this time. A number that excludes people that already recovered from it. If the only number that gets press is how many cases we EVER had, that number is always gonna be going up and scaring people.

The reason that's relevant is that this is not an HIV-type infection where once a person contracts it they can spread it forever. This is a flu-like virus. You contract it, recover, develop a natural immunity for that strain and move on. There are new cases every day, but there are also recovered cases everyday. Would be nice to see the just net increase be talked about more, as opposed to just the raw increase. That's a less scary number though, so you're not gonna see it in the news very much.

That site I provided has all of that info. Active cases are going up far faster than closed cased.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Can you can also sort active cases by country as well.

Also, I don't know if that number is "less scary" than the total cases. Is saying 255,000 active cases, really less scary than 373,000 total cases?

[KeonClark]

Farewell Olympics. Trying to start up nba or nhl this summer is a pipe dream. Ain't happenin

[S.R.]

Interesting stat I saw somewhere is the current infection rate is between 2 and 3 - so the average carrier infects 2-3 people before they realize they have it and self-quarantine. But measures in places like South Korea and Singapore reduced that number to nearly zero. They think if through test and trace they can keep that number under 1, it will contain future outbreaks.

[Joey]

Interesting stat I saw somewhere is the current infection rate is between 2 and 3 - so the average carrier infects 2-3 people before they realize they have it and self-quarantine. But measures in places like South Korea and Singapore reduced that number to nearly zero. They think if through test and trace they can keep that number under 1, it will contain future outbreaks.

This is the best illustration of that that I've seen: