Everything Coronavirus

[DanH]

Dan, honest question.
Why is hyperbole and and belittling others your go-to strategy in an otherwise healthy exchanging of viewpoints?
I didn't read "screw the old and the weak" in what Keon posted at all. In fact I read it as him try to find a more healthy balance of opinion, something you often appear to want to shut down.

I heard the messaging on this thing being described as fuckery. That definitely sounds like him trying to find a healthy balance of opinion.

Personally, I think I explained quite clearly why I think trying to use nuance like this in public messaging is foolish and it makes complete sense why it is so uniform right now, and how if public discussion turns the direction some people seem to want, it will literally kill people.

[MixxAOR]

In the current season, there have been at least 34 million cases of flu in the United States, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 flu deaths, according to the C.D.C. Hospitalization rates among children and young adults this year have been unusually high.

There would be even more illnesses and deaths if there were no flu vaccine. Most people recover in less than two weeks, and sometimes in just days.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-vs-flu.html

Hopes for a swift recovery from the coronavirus pandemic dimmed after President Trump warned of a “very painful” fight and projected 100,000 to 240,000 U.S. deaths, even with mitigation efforts. United Nations Secretary General António Guterres said the outbreak that has sickened hundreds of thousands of people around the world and devastated the global economy is the “most challenging crisis we have faced” since World War II.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...s-latest-news/

[G__Deane]

I heard the messaging on this thing being described as fuckery. That definitely sounds like him trying to find a healthy balance of opinion.

Personally, I think I explained quite clearly why I think trying to use nuance like this in public messaging is foolish and it makes complete sense why it is so uniform right now, and how if public discussion turns the direction some people seem to want, it will literally kill people.

Fair enough. Thanks for being even handed in your response. I just don't think you need to make fun of people or be so sarcastic in response sometimes but I see your point.

[Zak24gege]

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-vs-flu.html



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...s-latest-news/

Now the Common Flu is a seasonal occurrence returning every year in a mutated form hence the partial effectiveness of vaccines. Is the coronavirus here to stay or will it be a 1 shot deal and eventually die-out like SARS?

[S.R.]

Flu causes about 12,200 hospitalizations and 3,500 deaths in Canada each year. (https://www.ontario.ca/page/flu-facts) But there's a vaccine every year and people still die. We don't have vaccine for COVID.

Also, capacity for handling current viruses is basically built into the system, including coping with the hospitalizations and deaths. Even then a bad flu season really has an impact on your local hospitals and clinics, but generally we've got the healthcare infrastructure to handle it. Everyone saw China build emergency hospitals in 6 days and northern Italy turning away patients from ICU units and that became one of the big concerns - we have to slow the spread so healthcare infrastructure can keep up with the current need as people catch the virus. It's really just about that and not about which virus kills more people.

[KeonClark]

There isn't 'moving the goal posts,' there's a series of escalating measures that can be taken depending where you're at on the curve. It's a sequence of responses that's about avoiding the most extreme measures until absolutely necessary, all while trying to make sure to flatten the curve so the health care system can cope. That's it. Joe Rogan may be disappointed but there's no conspiracy.

These strategies are being provided by our leading health officials and actual scientists. All this isn't being run by a politician or a businessman. Politicians and business hate this, it's costing a shit load of money. These responses really don't serve any purpose other than public health.

​​​​It does all raise the really interesting ethical question of the value of human life. It's a fair question and a bit nuts that it's not a hypothetical right now. My life insurance policy tells my wife and kids I'm worth about $500,000. My arm is worth $10k or something and my eyeball $5k, I don't remember. How much are at risk lives worth? Are all measures justified or are any measures too extreme? Does the general welfare of the many ever out value the health of a few?

​​​​​I think we're going to be tackling these questions way more openly if this takes 12-24 months and if we see economic impacts as extreme as some are predicting, like 30% unemployment in the US.

This is going to sound cold and callous but fuck it its cold hard truth: your life is definitely worth more than at least 95% of the people dying of Corona. You're a fairly young guy raising young kids, and I assume your job pays decent, that's a good life insurance package . Most of those dying have serious underlying issues, with assisted living, and many were probably less than a couple years from leaving the earth as it is. I'm not saying they're not worth saving, not at all. But it does bring up the cost/benefit question after this has peaked, and we've helped prevent the initial surge, which is probably in 3 or 4 weeks.

[MixxAOR]

Now the Common Flu is a seasonal occurrence returning every year in a mutated form hence the partial effectiveness of vaccines. Is the coronavirus here to stay or will it be a 1 shot deal and eventually die-out like SARS?

Nobody knows for sure. Spanish Flu killed more on second wave when cold weather came back.

[MixxAOR]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/coronavirus-in-young-people-ny-patients-skew-younger-some-die

Younger adults in New York City are being hospitalized with Covid-19 infections at surprisingly high rates, said doctors and other health-care workers treating them, undermining earlier assumptions about who’s most at risk from the new coronavirus.

New York has more confirmed cases than anywhere else in the U.S., and about 1 in 5 hospitalizations are occurring in people under age 44, according to data released by the city’s health department. Globally, moderate-to-severe cases have occurred in 10% to 15% of adults under age 50, according to the World Health Organization.

[inthepaint]

Agreed - not everyone in the medical field feels this way. I know that many understand the socio-economic conditions that could have a huge impact on health.

From my personal experience so far, the ones who mainly advocate completely self isolation (i.e a shut down of literally everything except for maybe groceries, and even then I don't think they fully understand how groceries get to their stores), are the ones who are privileged. It's the ones who have very stable jobs. They don't seem to care that there is a large portion of the population that don't have those same luxuries that they do.

I'm on the fence on what I actually believe (I am following all of the "rules"), but it's frustrating that it seems that most people I interact with are all parroting the same thing without questioning anything.

I see both angles. I personally respect it, try to tell my kids why things are like this, even cancelled my son's birthday party that he was looking forward to and explained why. That said, I'm very much aware that the message about this have an infused fear factor on it, by design. Dangers and intimidating numbers/aspects of it are highlighted, while attempts to put the disease in the context of other diseases or show positive developments in containing it, are suppressed. Again this is by design as a means to keep people inside, for better or worse. The validity and ethical questions of that method are for another discussion altogether, but it's important to be aware that it exists.

Another thing that I'm very much aware of is the tremendous economic impact our reaction to this will have, potentially for years. That has been getting more traction in the media this past week, but it's portrayed in a much lighter "no big deal" note. The message is "don't worry we're here for you, here's a stimulus package, things will go back to normal etc...". Socio-Economic conditions have a massive influence on mental and physical health, over long periods of time.

Pretend for a minute that royal princess Kate Middleton had a genetically identical twin that was an unemployed single mother in Guatemala (or in a poor neighbourhood in North America). Her sister will have a much higher likelihood of being sick, using drugs, utilizing a ton more of healthcare resources, being domestically abused, dying much younger, having her kids neglected/abused (and themselves growing up to be criminals) etc...That's stuff is hard to imagine from a high-rise lakeview condo in Toronto, but there are millions of people worldwide that live really close to that line, and they will be pushed to it after we're done punching the economy. That'll hardly make the news though, these are old maladies the world is used to, coronavirus is new.

[jimmie]

I see both angles. I personally respect it, try to tell my kids why things are like this, even cancelled my son's birthday party that he was looking forward to and explained why. That said, I'm very much aware that the message about this have an infused fear factor on it, by design. Dangers and intimidating numbers/aspects of it are highlighted, while attempts to put the disease in the context of other diseases or show positive developments in containing it, are suppressed. Again this is by design as a means to keep people inside, for better or worse. The validity and ethical questions of that method are for another discussion altogether, but it's important to be aware that it exists.

Another thing that I'm very much aware of is the tremendous economic impact our reaction to this will have, potentially for years. That has been getting more traction in the media this past week, but it's portrayed in a much lighter "no big deal" note. The message is "don't worry we're here for you, here's a stimulus package, things will go back to normal etc...". Socio-Economic conditions have a massive influence on mental and physical health, over long periods of time.

Pretend for a minute that royal princess Kate Middleton had a genetically identical twin that was an unemployed single mother in Guatemala (or in a poor neighbourhood in North America). Her sister will have a much higher likelihood of being sick, using drugs, utilizing a ton more of healthcare resources, being domestically abused, dying much younger, having her kids neglected/abused (and themselves growing up to be criminals) etc...That's stuff is hard to imagine from a high-rise lakeview condo in Toronto, but there are millions of people worldwide that live really close to that line, and they will be pushed to it after we're done punching the economy. That'll hardly make the news though, these are old maladies the world is used to, coronavirus is new.

Everything you say about long term economic impact is true, but kind of beside the point. The economic impact of ending mitigation measures in favour of restarting the engine of capitalism would arguably be worse.

And to those suggesting there is “fuckery” afoot, I’ll pose the same question I pose to climate science deniers: Who and more importantly why is pushing thus conspiracy? What does anyone have to gain? I mean, it had to be a worldwide propaganda effort at this point, right??

[S.R.]

This is going to sound cold and callous but fuck it its cold hard truth: your life is definitely worth more than at least 95% of the people dying of Corona. You're a fairly young guy raising young kids, and I assume your job pays decent, that's a good life insurance package . Most of those dying have serious underlying issues, with assisted living, and many were probably less than a couple years from leaving the earth as it is. I'm not saying they're not worth saving, not at all. But it does bring up the cost/benefit question after this has peaked, and we've helped prevent the initial surge, which is probably in 3 or 4 weeks.

Haha, wife + I bought private life insurance for at least while the kids are young. Hate to see the automatic withdrawal every month but whatever, that's insurance I guess. My work policy would pay for the juice cups at a funeral and that's about it.

[inthepaint]

Everything you say about long term economic impact is true, but kind of beside the point. The economic impact of ending mitigation measures in favour of restarting the engine of capitalism would arguably be worse.

And to those suggesting there is “fuckery” afoot, I’ll pose the same question I pose to climate science deniers: Who and more importantly why is pushing thus conspiracy? What does anyone have to gain? I mean, it had to be a worldwide propaganda effort at this point, right??

I disagree that is beside the point. It's context and perspective. I'm not suggesting "ending mitigation measures" - it's possible to follow it and be aware of its drawbacks, be aware of the fact that there's a cost to it. A cost that is actually very difficult to measure because it can have pervasive, long term effects. And it's not about the "engine of capitalism" is the engine of society as whole, because albeit not perfect, that's the system we have. People tend to be very quick to point fingers at capitalism from their ipads in their nice houses after a nice meal, but no one saying that wants to leave any of it and go to communist China to practice what they preach.

[MixxAOR]

[G__Deane]

Everything you say about long term economic impact is true, but kind of beside the point. The economic impact of ending mitigation measures in favour of restarting the engine of capitalism would arguably be worse.

And to those suggesting there is “fuckery” afoot, I’ll pose the same question I pose to climate science deniers: Who and more importantly why is pushing thus conspiracy? What does anyone have to gain? I mean, it had to be a worldwide propaganda effort at this point, right??

You don't think that Warren Buffett and Bill Gates and Bezos and every Wall Street Hedge Fund Manager sitting with a ton of dry powder is quietly rubbing his dirty little hands together with glee and can't believe the unexpected gift they've been given and the prospects of buying hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in beat down blue chip equities as we pull out of this?

Blue chips with regular and predictable growth and often paying dividends are down 25-50% due to nothing but a freak virus. I can almost guarantee you they gain 50-100% of that back in 12-18 months.

Disney is down from $150 and touched 80 for instance

Shorting crude oil contracts and airlines was obvious. Long contracts on gold was obvious. Wyndham, Marriott, Hilton ($115, touched $45).

McDonalds, $220-124 because no one can go out, even Coke, a non obvious target went from $290-195. I could give you hundreds of easy examples.

There are mega rich investors that ONLY go all in during tragedies like 9-11, Black Mondays and Corona. Buffet alone will profit billions off this crisis and most of these guys will be raking in offshore tax havens to boot. They went short on the bad news and have already been taking new entry points for the easy rebound all the while keeping further dry powder in case it gets even worse. That's capitalism at both it's worst and finest.

[KeonClark]

Everything you say about long term economic impact is true, but kind of beside the point. The economic impact of ending mitigation measures in favour of restarting the engine of capitalism would arguably be worse.

And to those suggesting there is “fuckery” afoot, I’ll pose the same question I pose to climate science deniers: Who and more importantly why is pushing thus conspiracy? What does anyone have to gain? I mean, it had to be a worldwide propaganda effort at this point, right??

This thread isn't ready to go down that rabbit hole

But check this out, the morality (death count) in europe hasn't increased really at all compared to years past....I know, I know..."yet"...

http://euromomo.eu/