Everything Coronavirus

[Miekenstien]

You don't think that Warren Buffett and Bill Gates and Bezos and every Wall Street Hedge Fund Manager sitting with a ton of dry powder is quietly rubbing his dirty little hands together with glee and can't believe the unexpected gift they've been given and the prospects of buying hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in beat down blue chip equities as we pull out of this?

Blue chips with regular and predictable growth and often paying dividends are down 25-50% due to nothing but a freak virus. I can almost guarantee you they gain 50-100% of that back in 12-18 months.

Disney is down from $150 and touched 80 for instance

Shorting crude oil contracts and airlines was obvious. Long contracts on gold was obvious. Wyndham, Marriott, Hilton ($115, touched $45).

McDonalds, $220-124 because no one can go out, even Coke, a non obvious target went from $290-195. I could give you hundreds of easy examples.

There are mega rich investors that ONLY go all in during tragedies like 9-11, Black Mondays and Corona. Buffet alone will profit billions off this crisis and most of these guys will be raking in offshore tax havens to boot. They went short on the bad news and have already been taking new entry points for the easy rebound all the while keeping further dry powder in case it gets even worse. That's capitalism at both it's worst and finest.

berkshire has 90 billion in cash. ford pays 60 cents yearly, up to 11% annual that compounds quarterly. will suspend dividends for a few, and then the farmers will buy their f150s.

[Zak24gege]

[MixxAOR]

You don't think that Warren Buffett and Bill Gates and Bezos and every Wall Street Hedge Fund Manager sitting with a ton of dry powder is quietly rubbing his dirty little hands together with glee and can't believe the unexpected gift they've been given and the prospects of buying hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in beat down blue chip equities as we pull out of this?

Blue chips with regular and predictable growth and often paying dividends are down 25-50% due to nothing but a freak virus. I can almost guarantee you they gain 50-100% of that back in 12-18 months.

Disney is down from $150 and touched 80 for instance

Shorting crude oil contracts and airlines was obvious. Long contracts on gold was obvious. Wyndham, Marriott, Hilton ($115, touched $45).

McDonalds, $220-124 because no one can go out, even Coke, a non obvious target went from $290-195. I could give you hundreds of easy examples.

There are mega rich investors that ONLY go all in during tragedies like 9-11, Black Mondays and Corona. Buffet alone will profit billions off this crisis and most of these guys will be raking in offshore tax havens to boot. They went short on the bad news and have already been taking new entry points for the easy rebound all the while keeping further dry powder in case it gets even worse. That's capitalism at both it's worst and finest.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...id-19-collapse
Jeff Bezos sold $3.4bn of Amazon stock just before Covid-19 collapse

[jimmie]

https://www.theguardian.com/business...id-19-collapse
Jeff Bezos sold $3.4bn of Amazon stock just before Covid-19 collapse

Ok, but that’s not what those preaching “fuckery” were talking about. There has been a lot of talk of “the media” and the scientific and health communities being somehow the perpetrators of this “panic”. That’s different from suggesting that corporations and shareholders are now wat-profiteering from the legitimate health crisis. Of course that happening, it always has and always will, and it’s evil, but it’s to be expected. If that’s the “fuckery” being discussed, then I agree, but I don’t think that’s what was being insinuated, especially when the follow up point was that we should be seriously evaluating the cost of keeping thousands of Canadians alive at the expense of not inconveniencing the rest of us.

[golden]

Damn KeonClark , you've got the word "fuckery" trending now.

[S.R.]

I haven't looked into the details but very wealthy people unloading stocks just before a crisis that everybody basically knows is coming...isn't that crazy. The economy running into a brick wall was pretty predictable for anyone paying attention and some people bailing on stocks ASAP doesn't necessarily mean anything shady happened. Also, for the few stories about investors who nailed the timing and got richer, there are piles more who've lost a ton of money.

The biggest economic impact is still coming. Tourism industry is getting nailed already, and now a lot of seasonal businesses won't be able to survive this summer. And interest free loans have limited value for small business - lost revenue is lost revenue, businesses operating with small margins to begin with aren't going to recover that current lost revenue, ever. It won't be possible for a lot of them to pay off future loans even after business is back to normal, they won't have the margins for it.

And man if the US economy really tanks here, a lot of Canadian manufacturing and exporting is going to be hit hard. A million people applying for EI in the last week is just the tip of the iceberg, unfortunately. This is going to get rough. We're going to get some urgency towards "getting things back to normal" even while risk still exists - I bet we hit that by mid-summer.

[G__Deane]

I haven't looked into the details but very wealthy people unloading stocks just before a crisis that everybody basically knows is coming...isn't that crazy. The economy running into a brick wall was pretty predictable for anyone paying attention and some people bailing on stocks ASAP doesn't necessarily mean anything shady happened. Also, for the few stories about investors who nailed the timing and got richer, there are piles more who've lost a ton of money.

That was kinda the point lol.
And it's definitely not just those who nailed the timing. Buffett always sits on billions in cash for just these kind of things "good companies beaten down for no logical reason"

That's how he started the whole "value investing" narrative.

[KeonClark]

but I don’t think that’s what was being insinuated, especially when the follow up point was that we should be seriously evaluating the cost of keeping thousands of Canadians alive at the expense of not inconveniencing the rest of us.

Inconvenience is that I can't go golfing, or that the Raptors aren't on. No, I'm more worried about the Great Depression II that's on its way. I'm worried about the people that will lose their homes, or turning back to their addictions. The small business that will go under, and never open again, devastating families. The pensions that have been saved up for by hard working boomers, nearing retirement that are being wiped out. The jobs that won't come back. The single moms with kids no longer in school struggling to feed them and keep the lights on. The future of deserted streets in your hometowns, people scared of each other, scared of congregating, scared of spending. And for what? Are we SURE this is working? Or do we just think its working? Read up on Sweden, defying the odds with no lockdowns, and pretty the same or smaller "curve" than anyone else.

But hell, at least Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and Disney will still thrive in this brave new world. Maybe eventually every corner pub in your city will be called Amazon Pub, and you have to scan your barcode to get in, and it hires locals at $16 bucks an hour but owner is Jeff Bezos, whos on a private jet somewhere, unavailable to come to your table to have a beer and a chat about the local sports team.

[MixxAOR]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/03/30/why-swedens-coronavirus-approach-is-so-different-from-others/#5fc4f336562b

Locals are taking matters into their own hands

Despite the government choosing to issue guidance over the implementation of restrictions, many locals are taking things into their own hands. The public transport company of Stockholm reported a fall in passenger numbers of 50% last week.

Author and photographer Lola Akinmade Åkerström runs the website Slow Travel Stockholm. She describes the mood in the Swedish capital as quiet: “Although schools are open, many parents are keeping their children at home. Also, a lot of Stockholm companies made an early decision to close offices and move to homeworking.”

According to the Swedish Institute of Public Health’s daily briefing of March 30, the number of positive cases of COVID-19 in the country has passed 4,000. The number is very similar to the infection rate in Norway, yet twice as many people live in Sweden.

However, Akinmade Åkerström says there’s a simple reason for the relatively low infection numbers: “Very few people are being tested so it’s impossible to know the true spread of the illness.”

While the infection numbers are difficult to compare, the difference in death rate is more clear-cut. At the time of writing, 146 people with COVID-19 have died in Sweden. In Norway, that number stands at 32.

Two days ago, the Swedish Public Health Agency’s Karin Tegmark Wisell said in a radio interview that it was “too soon to tell” if the Swedish approach is proving successful. She said that the higher death rate in Sweden (when compared to Norway and Finland) is down to “the virus having reached more of those at greatest risk here.”

Last weekend, public gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, in the the first sign that the increasing death rate may lead to a stricter approach from Swedish authorities.

[inthepaint]

I haven't looked into the details but very wealthy people unloading stocks just before a crisis that everybody basically knows is coming...isn't that crazy. The economy running into a brick wall was pretty predictable for anyone paying attention and some people bailing on stocks ASAP doesn't necessarily mean anything shady happened. Also, for the few stories about investors who nailed the timing and got richer, there are piles more who've lost a ton of money.

The biggest economic impact is still coming. Tourism industry is getting nailed already, and now a lot of seasonal businesses won't be able to survive this summer. And interest free loans have limited value for small business - lost revenue is lost revenue, businesses operating with small margins to begin with aren't going to recover that current lost revenue, ever. It won't be possible for a lot of them to pay off future loans even after business is back to normal, they won't have the margins for it.

And man if the US economy really tanks here, a lot of Canadian manufacturing and exporting is going to be hit hard. A million people applying for EI in the last week is just the tip of the iceberg, unfortunately. This is going to get rough. We're going to get some urgency towards "getting things back to normal" even while risk still exists - I bet we hit that by mid-summer.

No way. Economy be damned, get out of here with your balanced views. Better be safe and continue to suck on the government teets until they have a vaccine (18months minimum)

[MixxAOR]

And you guys were blaming media for causing panic? LOL you guys got a good doomsday predictions too

[G__Deane]

No way. Economy be damned, get out of here with your balanced views. Better be safe and continue to suck on the government teets until they have a vaccine (18months minimum)

Like a flu vaccine that's 32-50% effective? I'm thinking the "next" COVID will be worse.

[inthepaint]

Like a flu vaccine that's 32-50% effective? I'm thinking the "next" COVID will be worse.

Well that settles then. We'll all stay home indefinitely and have some government feed us forever; heck someone already pointed out there's less polution/better air quality, we should all go back to the good and old hunter-gatherer days, foraging for food singing kumbaya and holding hands. Oh wait, can't hold hands.

[Puffer]

...Is there a fine for telling people masks don't work because you have a shortage for medical staff when masks really do work and you're days away from telling everyone to wear masks but keep lying because you didnt' prepare for the pandemic?....

A week ago I was pooh poohing the idea of homemade masks because wearing paper masks tends not to prevent people from inhaling aerosol or air suspended viral particles, based on research I had read. I have since changed my mind. https://www.wired.com/story/its-time...ca-masks-work/

Lots of YouTube videos out there or online articles telling you how to make your own mask and how to use it. Might be time to think about making a few out of old T-Shirts or whatever.

[Puffer]

...However, I keep seeing the goalposts move. It started as this 2 week quarantine, then 4 weeks, then 2 months, then summer, then a year, then 18 months....Toronto has banned gathering for 90 days? How do we know forsure what the spread will do then? What is the end goal? How do we know if we've met it? It's so very easy to move the dates and say "social distance is/isn't working, we need to go longer" and people just sing kumbaya and collect their basic income from the government teet with this new money stumbled upon?

I just have a sinking feeling they are far from done with us, long after we've flattened the curve. I hope I'm eating a crow and you're throwing a frisbee with friends enjoy a cold beverage this summer. We shall see.

You, my friend, are a man after my own heart. Someplace, in the inner, inner sanctum of every government in the world is a sign that says "NEVER LET A GOOD EMERGENCY GO TO WASTE."

I don't actually believe in an evil hand moving pieces on a chess board, but there is no government in the world that isn't going to be pleased if circumstances force them to take a little more control of the populaces lives. Just the nature of the beast. It makes bureaucrats jobs more secure, it gives elected representatives more power so they are more able to pay back the lobby groups that got them elected, that's just the way it works.

I'm not a tin hat guy, I just believe in Jerry Purnell's law of bureaucracy."Pournelle's iron law of bureaucracy: In any bureaucracy, the people devoted to the benefit of the bureaucracy itself always get in control and those dedicated to the goals the bureaucracy is supposed to accomplish have less and less influence, and sometimes are eliminated entirely."