Everything Coronavirus

[Zak24gege]

Here is an opinion piece by NYT's Thomas Friedman about Sweden's approach.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/o...&region=Footer

[Zak24gege]

Sweden has the 7th highest deaths per population of all countries with a major outbreak, about 3X that of Canada. They are also practicing social distancing just like we are, just with a few more things open. They haven’t completely overwhelmed their medical system so that’s good, but we’ll have to wait and see if their herd immunity gambit pays off.

and if they were tracking deaths like Belgium is...

There is talk among scientists and some in the health community that being exposed to the virus may not provide immunity. Friedman's piece in today's NY Times writes about the Swedish perspective on this question. They suggest if not, what's the point of a vaccine?

[KeonClark]

There is talk among scientists and some in the health community that being exposed to the virus may not provide immunity. Friedman's piece in today's NY Times writes about the Swedish perspective on this question. They suggest if not, what's the point of a vaccine?

I'm just shocked they're still debating it (immunity)? The amount of data they must have on this virus now would be staggering. The brightest minds in every country around the world. And yet so many things, it's "hmmm....maybe? Maybe not? Dunno yet."

[MixxAOR]

“My respect for those who died, but we are doing something right here in Sweden,” said Johan Mattsson, 44, as he was having a drink at a cafe on Skanegatan Street.

from NYT article.

[slaw]

I'm just shocked they're still debating it (immunity)? The amount of data they must have on this virus now would be staggering. The brightest minds in every country around the world. And yet so many things, it's "hmmm....maybe? Maybe not? Dunno yet."

On the immunity question, I would imagine that you need to see real world results and a few months isn't enough time to make these type of determinations.

[golden]

On the immunity question, I would imagine that you need to see real world results and a few months isn't enough time to make these type of determinations.

Exactly. The smart people came roaring out of the gate with some strong definitive statements that probably contributed to thousands of deaths (e.g. no human-to-human transmission, masks are harmful, etc...) to calm the masses, when they were better off creating a controlled panic. Biology sometimes takes time to reveal its scientific nature conclusively .... it is what it is. Smart people are probably gun-shy now.

[slaw]

Exactly. The smart people came roaring out of the gate with some strong definitive statements that probably contributed to thousands of deaths (e.g. no human-to-human transmission, masks are harmful, etc...) to calm the masses, when they were better off creating a controlled panic. Biology sometimes takes time to reveal its scientific nature conclusively .... it is what it is. Smart people are probably gun-shy now.

He is a bit of a crank but Nassim Taleb makes more and more sense to me these days. His idea of the Intellectual Yet Idiot could not be better illustrated than by the current crisis. The incompetence of the IYIs in complex domains has been exposed in all its glory for everyone to see. What is scary is that these same people are still in charge and making "plans"....

[SkywalkerAC]

Part of the problem with the immunity question, in addition to it not being a simple binary (immune or not immune), is the current state of antibody testing. One study showed that the current antibody tests on the market (in the States) can have as many as 15% false positives.

That means that 15 out of every hundred people that test positive for antibodies might think they are immune, when in reality they might not even have any antibodies.

[SkywalkerAC]

People have to realize that we're dealing with a completely new virus and a completely new disease. Science takes a while to figure things out.

[Zak24gege]

New Zealand is raising the victory flag!

https://www.techtimes.com/articles/2...hat-battle.htm

[golden]

He is a bit of a crank but Nassim Taleb makes more and more sense to me these days. His idea of the Intellectual Yet Idiot could not be better illustrated than by the current crisis. The incompetence of the IYIs in complex domains has been exposed in all its glory for everyone to see. What is scary is that these same people are still in charge and making "plans"....

This is nothing new. Book Smart people with zero Street Smarts has been going on for ages, i.e., the brilliant scientist who forgets to wear socks. However, as science and technology start to increasingly dominate our daily lives, then we increasingly rely on these Book Smart people with specialized technical knowledge to guide us in making major decisions - which is exactly what is happening here.

That said, it didn't require a Ph.D to know immediately that telling people to not wear masks was exceedingly stupid. But Ph.D's always feel like they have to be the smartest person in the room, even when they're out of their depth in the real world. Peter Principle in full effect.

[Zak24gege]

In contrast: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked. The numbers suggest a different story

Regarding the higher death rate in Sweden relative to it's neighbors, they would argue that we still early in the COVID-19 era and effectively have no idea how high the death rate is going to be over the next year. This virus isn't going away. Our self-quarantine strategy's main goal is to prevent overwhelming our health care system. You can be sure that when we start back to work, the virus will be there to greet us. And if Sweden's numbers look bad right now, how will they compare next year when everyone is back at work with no immunity..Hopefully we have a vaccine, but that would be an aggressive time frame.

[G__Deane]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cov...ions-1.5534630

New death projections for all of Canada (currently 1200) are 11-22,000 over the entire course of the pandemic (so widespread numbers again and no timelines to keep it open to interpretation).

Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that Ford said 3-15,000 just in Ontario?

And now they have raised it to 79% of all COVID deaths have been in nursing homes where virtually everyone has other health complications.

[MixxAOR]

Regarding the higher death rate in Sweden relative to it's neighbors, they would argue that we still early in the COVID-19 era and effectively have no idea how high the death rate is going to be over the next year. This virus isn't going away. Our self-quarantine strategy's main goal is to prevent overwhelming our health care system. You can be sure that when we start back to work, the virus will be there to greet us. And if Sweden's numbers look bad right now, how will they compare next year when everyone is back at work with no immunity..Hopefully we have a vaccine, but that would be an aggressive time frame.

Yeah the logic I'm getting from their interviews is that war with virus is already lost. Either now or later it will take it's victims. It's depressing when you think about that way.

[SkywalkerAC]

Also, Sweden's strategy isn't automatically some massive economic win. Their economy is expected to shrink by about 4%. Canada's is predicted to shrink about 6%. A couple of percentage is a big deal when you're talking about GDP but I think people have much different numbers than that in mind.