Everything Coronavirus

[KeonClark]

I thought Balloux got cancelled after he pointed out that COVID was comparable to a flu pandemic except those were more dangerous to kids.

He's one of the few people in authority who haven't completely lost their minds this year, which is probably why the general public has never heard of him.

Most of these decision makers are of very sound mind. It's the motivations I wonder about.

[slaw]

Most of these decision makers are of very sound mind. It's the motivations I wonder about.

My good friend who works in the infectious diseases field tells me that most of the public health people simply have very little if any real world experience outside their specific areas of expertise and, as a result, are not good at dealing with complex problems in chaotic environments. I don't know if that is true or not but it does explain both the lack of preparedness and initially confused and paralyzed response followed by the implementation of draconian measures as a last resort. That's exactly how you would expect someone to react who is in over their head: no response followed by massively overcompensating.

[Demographic Shift]

I could see a vaccine that you have to take 3 or 4 times a year. The Hep B vaccine requires 2 or 3 doses, but once you complete the series you are good. With Covid, it might require more runs, but the idea of one shot and your good to go is probably unlikely.

Whoever makes or patents this drug is going to make a killing.

The American biotech company Moderna is set to begin its third phase of human trials later this month with 30,000 volunteers. If the trials are a success, Moderna said it hopes to have doses ready by early 2021.

Moderna Inc
NASDAQ: MRNA
April 1 2020. Closed at 29.67
July 21 2020 Closed at 80.86

[KeonClark]

The American biotech company Moderna is set to begin its third phase of human trials later this month with 30,000 volunteers. If the trials are a success, Moderna said it hopes to have doses ready by early 2021.

Moderna Inc
NASDAQ: MRNA
April 1 2020. Closed at 29.67
July 21 2020 Closed at 80.86

Having Corona vaccines essentially on the stock market just doesn't sit right

[slaw]

AB schools back open in the fall with various precautions in place but otherwise business as usual. The madness is slowly receding...

[Demographic Shift]

Having Corona vaccines essentially on the stock market just doesn't sit right

How so ?

Without the venture capital afforded to big pharma companies regardless if you like them or not to engage in this type of research (and yes they get it all back if they develop any type of widely used drug/vaccine) we might be left with the other alternative... which is waiting for the CCP to deliver to the world their vaccine. Not exactly a trusted source ....

[G__Deane]

Just catching a bit of the end of the Jays/Red Sox game and some of the batters are wearing masks both batting and running the bases
Man, it's weird

[Puffer]

"Leading epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University estimates that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected by COVID-19 around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases......For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05-0.3%."

I've got a lot of respect for this guy. "Ioannidis's 2005 paper "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False"^[1] is the most downloaded paper in the Public Library of Science^[18][19] and is considered foundational to the field of metascience.^[20] In the paper, Ioannidis demonstrates that most published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence. Ioannidis has also addressed the replication crisis in diverse scientific fields including genetics,^[21] clinical trials,^[22] and neuroscience.^[23] His work has aimed to identify solutions to problems in research, and on how to perform research more optimally.^[24][25]"

This article of his thoughts and conclusions on COVID-19, published June 27th, is worth a read: https://usa.greekreporter.com/2020/0...oannidis-says/

[slaw]

Just catching a bit of the end of the Jays/Red Sox game and some of the batters are wearing masks both batting and running the bases
Man, it's weird

That is a manifestation of hysteria. The world has gone quite mad.

i take back my earlier claim that the madness was receding. It is in fact getting worse.

[GOLDBLUM]

That is a manifestation of hysteria. The world has gone quite mad.

i take back my earlier claim that the madness was receding. It is in fact getting worse.

Hysteria!!!! Madness!!!!!

hmmm....

maybe you’re the one that’s hysterical?

[G__Deane]

That is a manifestation of hysteria. The world has gone quite mad.

i take back my earlier claim that the madness was receding. It is in fact getting worse.

All of the managers on the bench were wearing masks but almost none of the players were. After the comeback win, the players did the traditional fist-pump line....

[Rudy Bargnani]

This video is good for a laugh

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...6LkIRu5_d-cbqg

[slaw]

All of the managers on the bench were wearing masks but almost none of the players were. After the comeback win, the players did the traditional fist-pump line....

Lol. La la land.

[KHD]

My good friend who works in the infectious diseases field tells me that most of the public health people simply have very little if any real world experience outside their specific areas of expertise and, as a result, are not good at dealing with complex problems in chaotic environments. I don't know if that is true or not but it does explain both the lack of preparedness and initially confused and paralyzed response followed by the implementation of draconian measures as a last resort. That's exactly how you would expect someone to react who is in over their head: no response followed by massively overcompensating.

my cynical opinion at this point is that public health officials by and large got lazy in the string of good years where all they really had to do was appear at some events and send a few tweets promoting exercise and smoking cessation.

They seem to have largely forgotten that they actually get paid the big bucks to make difficult choices about balancing the human costs during actual time-sensitive issues like epidemics. Moreover, the response that has been taken didn't even actually work. Nursing homes still got fucking hammered, like anyone who's ever been to one would expect.

The level of absolute bed-shitting that has happened in this field is a national disgrace.
There's maybe 1 local MOH in ontario (Kingston) who seems to actually have his shit together enough to prevent the actual dangers of this pandemic.

[S.R.]

"Leading epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University estimates that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected by COVID-19 around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases......For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05-0.3%."

I've got a lot of respect for this guy. "Ioannidis's 2005 paper "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False"^[1] is the most downloaded paper in the Public Library of Science^[18][19] and is considered foundational to the field of metascience.^[20] In the paper, Ioannidis demonstrates that most published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence. Ioannidis has also addressed the replication crisis in diverse scientific fields including genetics,^[21] clinical trials,^[22] and neuroscience.^[23] His work has aimed to identify solutions to problems in research, and on how to perform research more optimally.^[24][25]"

This article of his thoughts and conclusions on COVID-19, published June 27th, is worth a read: https://usa.greekreporter.com/2020/0...oannidis-says/

Just read it, interesting, a couple of thoughts:

- There's still huge variations in the best case/worst case possible scenarios, even just in number of people infected. There's still so much unknown.
- Seems pretty noteworthy the average age of death for COVID is basically the same as our average lifespan
- CDC currently has COVID deaths averaging 2.6 additional causes. Only 6% listing COVID as only cause. (I'm still not 100% sure how to take this. These people were alive, got COVID, and died. Yes they had other conditions, but they were still alive with their other conditions. How about some info on the terminal probability of the cormorbidities? Were these people likely to die in the next 3-6 months anyway? Or were they living out several years with other conditions, got COVID, and died?) Anyway, it's generally very old, very sick people who are dying from COVID. Seems like a more targeted public health response should be easy to implement to address the vast majority of risk.