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Expiring Contract Worth This Summer

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  • #16
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Dave wrote: View Post
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Would they be best used help market a Hedo or Jose trade?
    Expiring contracts only have value to teams who are looking for improved cap flexibility.

    Taking back a contract like Hedo or Jose is contradictory to that goal.

    The only use they have in a deal with them is as makeweights. As irrelevant add-ons to make the numbers work.
    I think that's a little short sighted. An expiring deal could be used in a trade to lessen the burden of taking on Hedo. The other team flips the Raptors the best player in the deal, plus an undesired contract in exchange for Hedo and an expiring deal. Makes sense to me, especially for a team looking to make a change and avoid paying luxury tax.
    Two reactions:

    (1) You are right, my words were badly chosen and too extreme.

    Especially that last line highlighted in red. Scratch that line completely.

    Conclusion should be along these lines -- Expiring contracts in combination with bad contracts have limited use and add limited value to a trade proposal + teams are hugely unlikely to find a positive end result by walking down that road.

    (2) I can't see a team giving up a superior player who doesn't have a worse contract than Turkoglu + that contract would need to be far worse than Turkoglu's for the expiring contract to hold substantial value.

    So essentially you're talking about a $15-to-$25 million per annum contract that lasts as long as Hedo Turkoglu's deal + a player who is performing so badly that the team sees Turkoglu's $10 million per annum for four more years contract as an improvement?

    Is there any other type of trade that I'm overlooking?
    nbaroundtable

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    • #17
      A team that is willing to acquire Calderon or Turkoglu is a team that values them highly and sees either player as the main attraction to any proposal. Not only will they be the primary benefit but the secondary benefit (expiring contract) will be relatively minor in their eyes.

      The reason the expirings will have low value in the deal is because the cost of paying Calderon or Turkoglu is very high while the benefits of improved cap flexibility will still be quite small relative to the talent downgrade from the trade.

      A Turk + Evans for a $15 million over four years contract doesn't create much added cap flexibility. The difference in talent between Turkoglu and the acquired player won't be much so long as that is true. For there to be a large talent upgrade the Raptors would have to give far more cap flexibility in the deal.

      So we're really talking about $20-25 million worth of contracts (could be two or more players). I think that is the only way the expiring deals would have large value in the trade.
      Last edited by Dave; Mon Mar 22nd, 2010, 03:03 PM.
      nbaroundtable

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      • #18
        Dave, I think you are completely right as a general point of view.

        The key is to find a scenario in which a talented player has burnt his bridge with his current team and now the team is selling him for 60 cents on the dollar. A team that has talented players and is looking for a specific type of guy like a Hedo or Jose might be willing to part with the more talented player making more money who has lost his way in order to add a specific piece of the puzzle.

        Obviously I'm talking about Gilbert here, but I don't think Hedo makes a ton of sense of Washington, maybe Jose though.

        GS has a lot of cooks and not enough servers. I could see them packaging Maggette with young talent like Brandon Wright for a Jose/Turk poo platter.

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        • #19
          Dave wrote: View Post
          (2) I can't see a team giving up a superior player who doesn't have a worse contract than Turkoglu + that contract would need to be far worse than Turkoglu's for the expiring contract to hold substantial value.

          So essentially you're talking about a $15-to-$25 million per annum contract that lasts as long as Hedo Turkoglu's deal + a player who is performing so badly that the team sees Turkoglu's $10 million per annum for four more years contract as an improvement?
          Hedo Turkoglu has shown very clearly that in the right system he is highly effective. You don't think a team like Clippers would consider moving Baron Davis for Hedo plus expirings and/or others if they win the lotto and have a chance to draft John Wall? It wasn't too long ago that they were dieing to get rid of him but couldn't find a suitor.

          Then as someone else mentioned, there's Gilbert Arenas.

          Both those guys land in that salary range you mentioned, which I see nothing wrong with under the right circumstances.

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          • #20
            Apollo wrote: View Post
            You don't think a team like Clippers would consider moving Baron Davis for Hedo plus expirings and/or others if they win the lotto and have a chance to draft John Wall?
            Would that not be a trade for talent? Talent for talent, Hedo for Baron.

            I don't understand how the expiring contracts improve the odds of the Clippers wanting to make that trade. I don't think it changes their decision.

            Hedo for Baron? No deal. We don't think that's enough value for Baron Davis.
            Hedo + expirings for Baron? Oh, yes, that is a lot more valuable and we're interested in that.

            I don't see the end result changing because of the inclusion of the expiring contracts. Therefore, I don't see them as a significant piece of this specific trade idea. Just a makeweight piece. Items which do not change the principle idea of the deal -- talent for talent, Hedo for Baron.
            nbaroundtable

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            • #21
              Are you rejecting the Baron for Hedo deal based on principle because I'm not sure if BC does that deal. Sure, I want to get rid of Hedo, but not for an over priced, past his prime point guard who hasn't realized he can't shoot the 3.

              Every trade is financially motivated and if you can trade one under performing player for another and create cap space with the addition of EC, its a win win. Clippers are rebuilding around Gordon, Griffin and the LA allure. I think they would love to shed Baron to get a quality vet and and an EC throw at a big name via a sign and trade.

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              • #22
                Dave wrote: View Post
                Would that not be a trade for talent? Talent for talent, Hedo for Baron.

                I don't understand how the expiring contracts improve the odds of the Clippers wanting to make that trade. I don't think it changes their decision.

                (1) Hedo for Baron? No deal. We don't think that's enough value for Baron Davis.
                (2) Hedo + expirings for Baron? Oh, yes, that is a lot more valuable and we're interested in that.


                I don't see the end result changing because of the inclusion of the expiring contracts. Therefore, I don't see them as a significant piece of this specific trade idea. Just a makeweight piece. Items which do not change the principle idea of the deal -- talent for talent, Hedo for Baron.
                Sorry if that was unclear -- badly laid out -- they, the italic section, were two make believe answers from the Clippers.

                The first question is a straight Hedo Turkoglu for Baron Davis swap with the Clippers deciding that there is not enough value coming back to them in the trade so they decline the offer.

                The second question adds an expiring contract to the mix along with Turkoglu in exchange for Baron Davis resulting in the Clippers changing their minds and they decide to accept the deal. The expiring contracts swung the decision.

                I do not understand how those two situations can be true. I do not understand how a small-to-medium sized expiring contract improves the attractiveness of LA adding Turkoglu's large contract to such a large degree.

                I believe that if the Clippers were willing to trade Baron Davis for Hedo Turkoglu that the expiring contract would only play a very small part. The essential part of the trade is still talent. It's Hedo for Baron and whether they feel that is an upgrade for them or not. The addition of the expiring contract will not alter that assessment to such a large degree that the Clippers change their minds. Ergo, the expiring contract is only a makeweight and does not make Turkoglu a more attractive trade target.
                Last edited by Dave; Mon Mar 22nd, 2010, 07:26 PM.
                nbaroundtable

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                • #23
                  The Baron Davis scenario I mentioned was in the case they won the lotto and got John Wall. I thought I said this very clearly. In that scenario they're going to want to cut ties with Davis. A starting five of Kaman, Griffin, Turkoglu, Gordon and Wall looks pretty damn good if you ask me. The expiring contracts play into the hand of a Clippers' owner who has been reluctant to spend on many occasions.

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                  • #24
                    Apollo wrote: View Post
                    The Baron Davis scenario I mentioned was in the case they won the lotto and got John Wall. I thought I said this very clearly. In that scenario they're going to want to cut ties with Davis. A starting five of Kaman, Griffin, Turkoglu, Gordon and Wall looks pretty damn good if you ask me. The expiring contracts play into the hand of a Clippers' owner who has been reluctant to spend on many occasions.
                    Yes, and assuming that ... Why does LA walk away from the first offer but decide to take the second offer?

                    How is the inclusion of the expiring contract a deciding factor in the deal?

                    I do not understand how the expiring contract makes Hedo Turkoglu a more attractive trade target. How it makes the Clippers more willing to take on his long term contract.
                    Last edited by Dave; Mon Mar 22nd, 2010, 07:58 PM.
                    nbaroundtable

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                    • #25
                      Dave wrote: View Post
                      I do not understand how the expiring contract makes Hedo Turkoglu a more attractive trade target. How it makes the Clippers more willing to take on his long term contract.
                      Because they want Davis out, they've had difficulties moving him and in doing this deal they lower their overall cap number in the following year. That may be important with the cap and luxury tax threshold dropping. On top of that they remove Davis from the team and land a player who's been proven to work very well with strong low post presences.

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                      • #26
                        (1) Hedo Turkoglu + minimum contract

                        (2) Hedo Turkoglu + $2-3 million expiring contract

                        (3) Hedo Turkoglu + $5 million expiring contract

                        Which is Toronto's best offer? Which offer is most likely to be accepted by the LA Clippers in exchange for Baron Davis? And why?
                        nbaroundtable

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Nevermind, it's not worth debating this any further.

                          Summary -- I do not think the expiring contract adds any considerable value to a possible trade package. I do not think it makes Hedo Turkoglu a more attractive trade target.
                          nbaroundtable

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                          • #28
                            Yeah, I got that about a page or so ago. I disagree. Case closed.

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