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2020 End of Season / Playoffs

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  • LJ2 wrote: View Post
    I've got the Clippers coming out of the West. My memory may prove it false but I believe they had more wins against elite competition where as the Lakers seemed to lose a lot of those games.
    Not sure vs contenders but LA teams are out front with 17 wins vs +.500 competition, Houston/Denver/Milwaukee each with 15. Raps only contender with a losing record vs +.500 (11-14).

    Counterpoint

    Bucks, Lakers, Raps top 3 teams for road wins. For some teams, the home vs road record has a huge disparity. Who does that favour in the bubble? You're never really at home, but also never really in a hostile environment. If your team depends on the home rah rah rah to get guys going, you may be off a step. But if your team (typically role players) struggle a bit in hostile environments, they won't have to deal with that. Tough to predict.

    Denver has always benefited from home cooking in Mile High City, they won't have that. Miami too, with the night life. Philly's been a horrible road team this year - are they more comfortable in the bubble or are they worse all around in the bubble (no real home games)?
    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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    • DogeLover1234 wrote: View Post

      I have a suspicion this playoffs our offense looks a lot like Moreyball in being super 3 pt heavy. Just dont see a lot of action at the rim in the halfcourt. Teams are going to give us all the Pick n pop threes we want. If we can make enough of those and Fred and Kyle cook a bit on those off the dribble three point bombs we can beat anyone. Nobody can shoot the midrange like Kawhi could last year and I just think teams will be able to make it really tough for Pascal around the basket. You look at our shot profile and we are the Rockets east - I think that only amplifies in the playoffs.
      The stage is perfectly set for Pascal to enter the conversation as a superstar.

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      • DogeLover1234 wrote: View Post

        I have a suspicion this playoffs our offense looks a lot like Moreyball in being super 3 pt heavy. Just dont see a lot of action at the rim in the halfcourt. Teams are going to give us all the Pick n pop threes we want. If we can make enough of those and Fred and Kyle cook a bit on those off the dribble three point bombs we can beat anyone. Nobody can shoot the midrange like Kawhi could last year and I just think teams will be able to make it really tough for Pascal around the basket. You look at our shot profile and we are the Rockets east - I think that only amplifies in the playoffs.
        I think you're right in that we'll be 3pt heavy, but I also think there will be a few of curve balls to balance that out:

        --Norm & TD have explosive first steps and tend to slash to the rim
        --Serge's pick & pop to the elbow (seems to be working now with either Lowry or FVV ball handling
        --Siakam's midrange step-backs have also been up in attempts & converts
        --You gonna get a few offence boards/put backs from Boucher or RHJ per game

        Lowry used to have a mean turnaround J around the elbow, but he's not doing that as much, probably by design. What we don't have is a guy with floaters from the midrange (like CP3 or Mike Conley), but I feel that stuff is being phased out modern half-court offences anyway.
        2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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        • inthepaint wrote: View Post

          I think you're right in that we'll be 3pt heavy, but I also think there will be a few of curve balls to balance that out:

          --Norm & TD have explosive first steps and tend to slash to the rim
          --Serge's pick & pop to the elbow (seems to be working now with either Lowry or FVV ball handling
          --Siakam's midrange step-backs have also been up in attempts & converts
          --You gonna get a few offence boards/put backs from Boucher or RHJ per game

          Lowry used to have a mean turnaround J around the elbow, but he's not doing that as much, probably by design. What we don't have is a guy with floaters from the midrange (like CP3 or Mike Conley), but I feel that stuff is being phased out modern half-court offences anyway.
          Yeah I think by design they trued to get rid of midrange shots - which it great for most casss but come playoffs i think you need one or two guys like you mention. Totally agree with everything youve said. Serge has proved what he can do I think, love his chemistry with Lowry in the PnR. Powell to me is the big question mark. Man im getting excited.

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          • How comfortable/confident are you guys with the ball in pascal's hand at the end of the game?

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            • DogeLover1234 wrote: View Post

              Yeah I think by design they trued to get rid of midrange shots - which it great for most casss but come playoffs i think you need one or two guys like you mention. Totally agree with everything youve said. Serge has proved what he can do I think, love his chemistry with Lowry in the PnR. Powell to me is the big question mark. Man im getting excited.
              Yeah, Kawhi absolutely killed it in the midrange last postseason. Those shots were there bc other defences are so focused on the paint + 3 pt line. Kawhi had the skill set to take whatever they gave him and dominate.

              That's my concern above re Siakam at end of game. He doesn't have the range of tools Kawhi had. He has some moves and can be very effective in iso, but generally Raps should be hunting best shot available as a team this year imho.
              "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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              • Maury wrote: View Post
                How comfortable/confident are you guys with the ball in pascal's hand at the end of the game?
                70%. But pascal with the ball in his hand with kyle,fvv,serge and marc on the floor raises that to like 85%
                To be the champs you got to beat the champs

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                • Maury wrote: View Post
                  How comfortable/confident are you guys with the ball in pascal's hand at the end of the game?
                  If it's a get-out-of-the-way predictable ISO, I'm not comfortable with it at all. If it's within the flow of a motion offence with plays drawn up for him to finish, but also with outlet passes to open guys, yes, I'm comfortable. Over the break he worked a lot on his midrange game, and it's showing. Also, reverse pnr's where he handles the ball and Lowry/FVV set the screen can really throw off defences.

                  The reason I believe we can get out of the East and even win it all again, is that Pascal, while not as deadly as Kawhi, is confident enough and efficient enough to always demand double coverage. If he can recognize the doubles and move the ball to find the open guy, we have enough battle-tested shooters with lots of deep playoff experience that won't be afraid to let it fly and convert (Norm, Fred, Gasol, Serge & OG, all significant threats from the perimeter). 3P% for these guys this year:

                  Fred: 38.8
                  Serge: 39.8
                  OG: 38.1
                  Gasol: 40.2
                  Norm: 39.8

                  Then off the bench you got TD shooting 39.6 and Thomas shooting an absurd 46.7 that will demand someone glued to him all the time. All this %'s are well above the league average, and that's the bulk of the team right there. If Pascal can find these guys when he's doubled, or punish defences when he's not doubled, they're a very tough nut to crack.

                  You combine that with the likely the best team defence in the league, one of the best transition offences, and one of the best coaches in the league, and it becomes very, very difficult to beat this team 4 times out of 7.
                  2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

                  Comment


                  • Maury wrote: View Post
                    How comfortable/confident are you guys with the ball in pascal's hand at the end of the game?
                    I think you are referring to end of game plays where we need a bucket for a win. He has shown through the season that he can be shutdown by guys like Giannis, Jaylen Brown and even Simmons I think, so it really depends on who is guarding him. He should be good in those situations for the first round, but deeper in the playoffs it will be a problem for him. Hope he's been working on it.

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                    • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                      If it's a get-out-of-the-way predictable ISO, I'm not comfortable with it at all. If it's within the flow of a motion offence with plays drawn up for him to finish, but also with outlet passes to open guys, yes, I'm comfortable. Over the break he worked a lot on his midrange game, and it's showing. Also, reverse pnr's where he handles the ball and Lowry/FVV set the screen can really throw off defences.

                      The reason I believe we can get out of the East and even win it all again, is that Pascal, while not as deadly as Kawhi, is confident enough and efficient enough to always demand double coverage. If he can recognize the doubles and move the ball to find the open guy, we have enough battle-tested shooters with lots of deep playoff experience that won't be afraid to let it fly and convert (Norm, Fred, Gasol, Serge & OG, all significant threats from the perimeter). 3P% for these guys this year:

                      Fred: 38.8
                      Serge: 39.8
                      OG: 38.1
                      Gasol: 40.2
                      Norm: 39.8

                      Then off the bench you got TD shooting 39.6 and Thomas shooting an absurd 46.7 that will demand someone glued to him all the time. All this %'s are well above the league average, and that's the bulk of the team right there. If Pascal can find these guys when he's doubled, or punish defences when he's not doubled, they're a very tough nut to crack.

                      You combine that with the likely the best team defence in the league, one of the best transition offences, and one of the best coaches in the league, and it becomes very, very difficult to beat this team 4 times out of 7.
                      It will be interesting to see what happens if Kyle falls back into some of his no show ways of the past. Will these guys continue to hit at a high rate? I'm not saying Kyle will choke but what if he does choke? He's been a roller coaster at times in the past. I'm hoping the ring keeps such slumps away.

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                      • Apollo wrote: View Post

                        It will be interesting to see what happens if Kyle falls back into some of his no show ways of the past. Will these guys continue to hit at a high rate? I'm not saying Kyle will choke but what if he does choke? He's been a roller coaster at times in the past. I'm hoping the ring keeps such slumps away.
                        That's always a possibility for pretty much any player, but there are 2 big things in Kyle's favour this year to prevent that from happening:

                        1. Physically, he'll be rested. Many of Kyle's in the struggles in the past had to do with how banged up he arrived at the playoffs. The Casey ride-or-die with Lowry-DD with heavy minutes and heavy usage. There was always something, a wrist, the back, grimaces etc.. We don't have that anymore. Kyle plays loose and the offence (and defence) is balanced enough he doesn't have to carry the whole load. Plus, this year everyone had a huge break and literally will have just 10 games to warm up, then it's playoffs.

                        2. Mentally, he's over the hump. He won his championship. He's playing free and loose, knowing Siakam is the major focal point of the offence, and he's there mostly to facilitate things and and bring the hustle/motivation to the kids. It's the perfect role and place mentally for him.
                        2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

                        Comment


                        • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                          If it's a get-out-of-the-way predictable ISO, I'm not comfortable with it at all. If it's within the flow of a motion offence with plays drawn up for him to finish, but also with outlet passes to open guys, yes, I'm comfortable. Over the break he worked a lot on his midrange game, and it's showing. Also, reverse pnr's where he handles the ball and Lowry/FVV set the screen can really throw off defences.
                          Unfortunately, that's what EOG offense is in the playoffs. Defenses know all your plays/sets, they blow them up and the ball goes to the best player to make a play against a defense completely focused on him. Whichever team has the guy that makes those plays wins.

                          One thing I would like to see more of is Siakam as the screener with FVV and Lowry. Feel as thought that is something they haven't used much and might be saving for the playoffs.

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                          • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                            That's always a possibility for pretty much any player, but there are 2 big things in Kyle's favour this year to prevent that from happening:

                            1. Physically, he'll be rested. Many of Kyle's in the struggles in the past had to do with how banged up he arrived at the playoffs. The Casey ride-or-die with Lowry-DD with heavy minutes and heavy usage. There was always something, a wrist, the back, grimaces etc.. We don't have that anymore. Kyle plays loose and the offence (and defence) is balanced enough he doesn't have to carry the whole load. Plus, this year everyone had a huge break and literally will have just 10 games to warm up, then it's playoffs.

                            2. Mentally, he's over the hump. He won his championship. He's playing free and loose, knowing Siakam is the major focal point of the offence, and he's there mostly to facilitate things and and bring the hustle/motivation to the kids. It's the perfect role and place mentally for him.
                            Good points. I am unsure that Kyle has any more faith in Siakim than he did in DD however. That's not me saying DD is a better player, don't get me wrong.

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                            • We saw enough of FVV making big shots in the playoffs last season to know that he is willing to take and is capable of making them. Siakam will rightly be the go to guy on offense but I wouldn't necessarily plug Lowry into the role of second option. Lowry/FVV could very well share that role equally.

                              Comment


                              • slaw wrote: View Post

                                Unfortunately, that's what EOG offense is in the playoffs. Defenses know all your plays/sets, they blow them up and the ball goes to the best player to make a play against a defense completely focused on him. Whichever team has the guy that makes those plays wins.
                                Well, yes and no. Sometimes it plays out this way, but often there's a double or the defence shifts but standard practice is your star takes the shot anyway. Everyone's more comfortable with winning/losing on the back of their superstar. It doesn't always mean other shots aren't there. Lebron on mulitple of the highest stake playoff occasions has kicked the ball to open role player shooters - and catches a ton of flak for it. The shots are there if your guy wants to make the pass.

                                But you're right in that a set NBA defence in these situations can often blow up your plays. Your star needs to break that down.
                                "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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