2020 End of Season / Playoffs

[Kagemusha]

If you were Giannis and a FA right now, would you sooner sign
1/ back with the Bucks
2/ Jimmy Buckets and Bam
3/ Siakam and FVV
4/ Zinger and Doncic

Dude will have choices. Masai's got work to do. Bring a 1B here with Siakam

Dallas is the sexiest choice.

[inthepaint]

This was a crazy thing about the long run last year. 4 rounds is enough to see plenty of hot/cold streaks. Early exits don't give you that opportunity, you just think Player A sucks bc that's all there was time for then the season was over.

Yeah this is what we have to be careful with. There's a lot of "Well, last year we stuck with FVV and he broke out later on, therefore we must stick with the same style and guys this year too no matter what".

Thing is, to get to round 3 you need to get out of round 2. Last year guys like Kawhi, Serge and Gasol defensively got us passed Philly, not Fred. Then because after that we had a different opponent, Fred had the chance to break out and have the great ECF and finals he had. In other words, if other guys hadn't pushed us past Philly, the value/narrative around FVV this year would have been totally different, and we would be likely grumbling about the coaches for being stubborn and sticking with FVV when he was pretty much unplayable vs Philly.

The question then becomes what we do this year. Do we:

A. Bank on rolling a hard 6 again by sticking to tactics and players that are struggling this series, and hope the other guys can buoy them on a game 7, so they have a chance to breakout vs Miami

OR

B. Throw a curve ball at the Celtics by changing things up and playing styles/guys that can come in hot offensively, space the floor, and facilitate our transition game (for example, start small), and THEN, if and when we get to the ECF, revert back to the original guys so they have another chance to breakout in a different series like Fred did last year.


Precedent & history says they will go with option "A". Will it pay off? We'll find out Friday.

[S.R.]

So the Lakers quit playing Dwight and Shaqtin McGee, got Rondo back for a solid 8 man rotation, and are now rollin. They're a more interesting opponent for LAC this way.

[007]

It was always going to come down to Lakers vs Clippers

[LJ2]

My Lord, it's 2020 and we're still talking about a LeBron lead team competing for a championship.

[S.R.]

James Harden 2-11 ouch. But more FTA than the entire Lakers team, lmao.

Can you win anything with James Harden as your best player?

[inthepaint]

James Harden 2-11 ouch. But more FTA than the entire Lakers team, lmao.

Can you win anything with James Harden as your best player?

Unlikely. Harden is an average to below average 3pt shooter (36.3% on the career, 35.5% this season), with a meh defence. He will put up monster games where he will go supernova from 3 and get 50 (usually in the regular season), then have several games like this to balance it out. With no real Centre on his team to clean up the glass after his misses, that's even harder.

Houston tried to oversimplify the game. Basketball gods so far are saying that's not gonna work.

[planetmars]

D'Antoni was such an innovative coach with the Nash 6 seconds or less offense. The stints in LA, NY and now Houston have really soured his legacy. He's innovative but has become more of a gimmick than a savant. Does Houston ever run a pick and roll at all anymore?

Harden can play a lot like Nash but he needs to run up the court instead of walk it up.. get guys open with his passing skills and make great plays at the rim and out on the perimeter. Harden is no Nash but he can replicate a lot of what Nash was great at.

D'Antoni is in his 70's. He's on an expiring deal. This could really be his last kick in the can. I'd be surprised honestly if Houston brought him back. But then Harden only seems to know how to play one way now and without D'Antoni he might get lost.

They have some really great players on their roster though. I've always like Covington. Tucker is a baller. House has been a bit of a surprise.

Westbrook is Westbrook and that was a terrible trade by Morey. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if Morey was done too.

[S.R.]

Unlikely. Harden is an average to below average 3pt shooter (36.3% on the career, 35.5% this season), with a meh defence. He will put up monster games where he will go supernova from 3 and get 50 (usually in the regular season), then have several games like this to balance it out. With no real Centre on his team to clean up the glass after his misses, that's even harder.

Houston tried to oversimplify the game. Basketball gods so far are saying that's not gonna work.

I agree, Houston & Harden basically figured out a "YOU'LL NEVER BELIEVE THIS BASKETBALL HACK HOW HE SCORED 50 OMG" that's too one dimensional.

I still think the problem with over reliance on the 3 is the analytics in your favour are built on large sample sizes but playoffs come down to small sample size moments. So shooting 36% from 3 works out over the season but when you need a bucket, a guy who can get you a 2 on 50% FG% might be more valuable. That and you just need options to adjust. The way the Raptors and Celtics have both adjusted is just incredible. Game 6 the coaches were playing guys 50 minutes because several rotation players were unplayable - the other team is just too smart and jumps on your weak points immediately. You can't even keep lesser players in the game.

Houston doesn't have that ability, and I think to a lesser degree that's also Bud's/Milwaukee's/Giannis' problem. Giannis is too one dimensional right now. Bud's system isn't as much of a gimmick as D'Antoni's but it's still too rigid. There's no flex there, no bag of tricks to dig into, no deep playbook to reach into, no ability in the system, in your star, or really on your roster to adjust and adapt and play different opponents different ways.

All that is going to put analytics into perspective over time. There are more efficient shots and more efficient ways of playing that are your Plan A. But you HAVE TO have depth. You have to have flexibility and a bag of tricks and an ability to get buckets in different ways at different key moments and to take advantages of different weaknesses in different teams. You can't narrow it all down so much that you lose all that. The regular season may not make you pay, but the playoffs will.

[The Great One]

James Harden 2-11 ouch. But more FTA than the entire Lakers team, lmao.

Can you win anything with James Harden as your best player?

No.

Harden disappears when you need him the most. Tonight he played like he didn't give a shit.

[G__Deane]

Another consideration (although I don't know how much it matters to Giannis): The Bucks supermax offer would be for 5 years at around $213M (depending on the cap levels, but this is the conservative number) Other teams would be four years for around $135m

It's a ton of dough-difference that would be the deciding factor for 90% of players. He's with a great team, the only upgrade would be to a super team but that's just just workplace stuff. Masai better be in Giannis' baby momma Mariah Riddlesprigger too. They're expecting shortly and I doubt she has an affinity for Toronto over staying out or warmer weather.

[planetmars]

Giannis could sign a 4 year deal somewhere else (I think he goes for a 2+1 deal) and then a 10-year vet max contract when that expires (which is akin to the supermax - Paul has that one). So he will lose a bit of money but not an overwhelming amount.

The fact that KD with a busted Achilles got a supermax tells me that even an injury scare won't prevent a guy from Giannis from getting a max deal again. So I don't think he has to worry so much about getting that 5th year. It's more about whether or not he wants to keep trying in Milwaukee.

I am no way a Bucks fan, and I think they have a lot of issues over there with their roster. But I think he's staying.

[Apollo]

Toronto is seemingly custom built for Giannis.

[G__Deane]

Toronto is seemingly custom built for Giannis.

Geography aside, Masai has some work to do to keep this team competitive enough to stay in the mix.
Two or three of Serge, Gasol and Kyle won't be here, perhaps not FVV. Who replaces them at a high level to entice Giannis beyond his Masai Africa connection?

Him coming here alters the course of this team's future.

[Apollo]

Geography aside, Masai has some work to do to keep this team competitive enough to stay in the mix.
Two or three of Serge, Gasol and Kyle won't be here, perhaps not FVV. Who replaces them at a high level to entice Giannis beyond his Masai Africa connection?

Him coming here alters the course of this team's future.

Masai is the biggest selling point. He will know that he's playing for the best run team in the business.