Knicks>Raptors? Ryan Ruocco thinks so!

[stooley]

Seriously, every single data point I've brought up tells me Anthony's at least a slightly above average defensive player, whose defensive reputation has likely been ruined in the media, leading to opinions like your own. I'm not saying you can't keep that opinion, but all the data, which is unbiased and fact, meaning you cannot argue with it, says that you're wrong.

You and raptors999 haven't brought a single data set to back your own opinions up, you've brought up YouTube, and you've brought up my credibility apparently being lost, but no rational argument where you completely picked apart my argument and showed why Melo is a below average defender. Could you do that, please? Before telling me I have no credibility?

defensive stats are pretty worthless. most only look at blocks and steals.

[Mindlessness]

I can't... read that... at all...

EDIT: This is to raptors999.

[torch19]

The triangle offense is ideal for Melo as it puts him in situations/spots that cater to his strengths. Contrast to Mike Woodson's schemes, the triangle demands that all 5 players are ideally spaced out so that each option would trigger a series of actions. That would limit the ball watching while Melo iso's in the high post.

The downside is that the triangle demands that all 5 players are mentally sharp at all times. They become thinkers with synchronized movements. Essentially, it asks that all 5 players make reads & execute one of the available actions instead of relying on the point guard to do most of the reads. Therefore, I'm assuming that it will take some time for every player in that roster to adjust to the system. It's a unique system & I predict that NY will struggle from the onset as they adjust.

Defensively, they don't project to be very good. Offensively, they will struggle as they adjust. I just don't see them beating out the Raptors for the top seed in the Atlantic.

[raptors999]

Seriously, every single data point I've brought up tells me Anthony's at least a slightly above average defensive player, whose defensive reputation has likely been ruined in the media, leading to opinions like your own. I'm not saying you can't keep that opinion, but all the data, which is unbiased and fact, meaning you cannot argue with it, says that you're wrong.

You and raptors999 haven't brought a single data set to back your own opinions up, you've brought up YouTube, and you've brought up my credibility apparently being lost, but no rational argument where you completely picked apart my argument and showed why Melo is a below average defender. Could you do that, please? Before telling me I have no credibility?

Synergy Statistics - Data collected and posted to mysynergysports.com. Synergy breaks down every play and determines the type of shot or offensive set. Statistics are shown in the format of*PPPrank. Points per play (PPP) is defined by the points allowed by the completion of a single play. Completion is simply a shot attempt, turnover, or getting to the free throw line. So, when Kevin Durant plays defense on the Pick and Roll on ball handler, he allows on average of 0.52 points per possession, good enough for fourth in the NBA. If you see "NR", this means that the player has not had enough defensive attempts to be ranked.

Synergy Statistics

PlayerIsolationP&R BallPost-UpP&R Roll ManSpot-UpOff ScreenHand OffKevin Durant0.5280.5240.73321.25NR0.87711.05471.29NRLeBr on James0.92940.5790.81NR0.88NR0.87710.63NR0.64NRPaul George0.67350.63230.77420.73NR0.89830.88271.21NRCa rmelo Anthony0.4750.72NR0.71261.43NR1.011661.47NR0.8NR

Key Terms

Steals*and*Blocks*are in per game averages.

DRtg*or Defensive Rating is the number of points per 100 points the players team allowed while he was on court.

DWS*or Defensive Win Shares is the approximation of the number of wins created (or lost) by the player.

PPP*or Points per Play is the number of points allowed per defensive play when the player is specifically responsible for the ball. (see*http://mysynergysports.com*for reference data)

DRAPM*or Defensive Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus is the defensive impact of a single player while he is on court. The units are in terms of points per 100 possessions. (seehttp://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/*for reference data) This is much different than traditional plus/minus as this metric attempts to solve the large set of equations in the form of:

Target Player + mate1 + mate2 + mate3 + mate4 + opp1 + opp2 + opp3 + opp4 + opp5 + homecourt = +/-

Basic Statistics

TypeYearDurantJamesGeorgeAnthonySteals2013-141.51.32.00.9Steals2012-131.41.71.80.8Steals2011-121.31.91.61.2Blocks2013-140.80.30.30.7Blocks2012-131.30.90.60.5Blocks2011-121.20.80.60.5

Advanced Statistics

TypeYearDurantJamesGeorgeAnthonyDRtg2013-149810394109DRtg2012-1310010197108DRtg2011-1210197100102DWS2013-142.21.42.70.6DWS2012-135.34.76.32.0DWS2011-123.74.53.22.6PPP2013-140.810.810.780.88PPP(Rank)2013-14909056205DRAPM2012-132.31.63.1-1.7DRAPM2011-121.12.22.4-0.9

Observations

Kevin Durant*is a vastly underrated defender. For the last three seasons he has posted positive contributions in the advanced metrics listed below. His Synergy ratings are about on par with LeBron James in the overall sense... and it helps that he's an elite pick and roll ball (#4 overall) and isolation defender (#8 overall). He doesn't have enough attempts to register in the pick and roll man and handoff situations -- but with his +1.00 PPP rating in those categories, it might be a case where OKC tries to limit his exposure to those situations.

LeBron James*is very well rounded defender, but talk about him being a DPOY the year candidate is vastly overstated. He's the only player listed here with every individual Synergy category below 1.00 PPP. He is an elite pick and roll ball defender (#8). If he is truly a "lock down iso defender", his Synergy Stats do not support this. He is above average at 0.92 PPP in isolation situations, but this is far from elite.

Paul George*is the best of this group of players. Nearly every advanced statistic has George at or near the top for his size and position. With the exception of hand off situations, every Synergy Stat is below 0.90 PPP which is elite. Talks of George being a DPOY candidate is at best very well warranted or at worst a conversation starter that leads to Roy Hibbert winning it.

Carmelo Anthony*fulfills most of our expectations here. His advanced statistics are well below league average and his Synergy ratings follow suit. He appears to be holding up very well in isolation situations (#5 overall) and post-up situations (best of the group), but his 1.01 PPP Spot-Up defense, and +1.4 pick and roll man and off screen defense drag his overall performance down.

[Mindlessness]

That last line ruins any credibility you had.

Seriously, every single data point I've brought up tells me Anthony's at least a slightly above average defensive player, whose defensive reputation has likely been ruined in the media, leading to opinions like your own. I'm not saying you can't keep that opinion, but all the data, which is unbiased and fact, meaning you cannot argue with it, says that you're wrong.

You and raptors999 haven't brought a single data set to back your own opinions up, you've brought up YouTube, and you've brought up my credibility apparently being lost, but no rational argument where you completely picked apart my argument and showed why Melo is a below average defender. Could you do that, please? Before telling me I have no credibility?

[2kfeen]

Yo I think the Knicks have the potential to be really good
The 2012 50+ win squad had consistency in their shooters, and their playmakers

Jason Kidd and Novak were great 3 point shooters, and when JR spotted up, he posted great shooting percentages from deep
When they lost Jason Kidd & Novak, and had Felton playing floor general full time, you had a lot of iso ball and low percentage shots

I think Jose could be the guy that can quell the iso-mentric mentality the Knicks got and get better looks for JR Smith. Ellington and Jose are both great shooters so this could help the offense as well. Losing Chandler loses a lot of defense, but you get rid of a locker room cancer in Felton.

And I think Dalembert and Aldrich can sorta help the void that Chandler left.

With limited assets, Phil is trying to rebuild the 2012 model that won them so many games and got them into the 2nd round.

[Axel]

Well according to dWS, he's actually stayed pretty much the same defensively. And has actually on average contributed 2.5 dWS per season.

Last year he secured 2.5 Wins Defensively, which ranked him 66th out of 482 players.

Yes, he's still an above average defender.

That last line ruins any credibility you had.

[raptors999]

Well according to dWS, he's actually stayed pretty much the same defensively. And has actually on average contributed 2.5 dWS per season.

Last year he secured 2.5 Wins Defensively, which ranked him 66th out of 482 players.

Yes, he's still an above average defender.

Check youtube. Melo doesn't even try a lot.

[Mindlessness]

Melo was a good defender at one point in his career. Now, not so much. With his injury history and weight issues expect a lot of hand waving defense.

Well according to dWS, he's actually stayed pretty much the same defensively. And has actually on average contributed 2.5 dWS per season.

Last year he secured 2.5 Wins Defensively, which ranked him 66th out of 482 players.

Yes, he's still an above average defender.

[raptors999]

I have read properly. What I'm saying is Melo was almost certainly a leader on those Nuggets' teams, and they were a fantastic defensive team, that automatically means the 1st bold is wrong, because there is a history of Melo-led teams being sound defensively.

2nd bold, they were known for two, I don't know about you but 164 games of top 10 defense sounds, you know, more factual than your statement of "Melo-led teams aren't known for their defence."

I do agree that the Knicks are going to be horrendous defensively, but not for the reasons you specified.

Melo was a good defender at one point in his career. Now, not so much. With his injury history and weight issues expect a lot of hand waving defense.

[Mindlessness]

Point was more about how teams follow their leader. Melo is the leader of that team, so you shouldn't expect too much defence.

I think you need to read the thread more carefully. I never made that second quote, but merely made the comment that Melo led teams aren't known for their defence, so people shouldn't expect much D from the Knicks anyway (regardless of Calderon addition and Chandler subtraction). The fact that someone pointed out a single statistical season where Melo's team finish top 10 doesn't change that. Whether it's a statistical anomaly or a fluke season, or whatever, it's all irrelevant to the general point. Melo doesn't try on D, so don't expect many of his teammates to. Adding Jose isn't going to kill the Knicks defensively because the Knicks were never going to be a great defensive team anyway.

I have read properly. What I'm saying is Melo was almost certainly a leader on those Nuggets' teams, and they were a fantastic defensive team, that automatically means the 1st bold is wrong, because there is a history of Melo-led teams being sound defensively.

2nd bold, they were known for two, I don't know about you but 164 games of top 10 defense sounds, you know, more factual than your statement of "Melo-led teams aren't known for their defence."

I do agree that the Knicks are going to be horrendous defensively, but not for the reasons you specified.

[white men can't jump]

I'm thinking they will be better because they will be more like the Knicks of two years ago when everyone was healthy and happy. If both Shumpert and Stoudamire are back to 100% and with Hardaway Jr. given a more prominent role and possibly J.R. smith reigned in by HOF GM, it could make the Knicks dangerous. Not to say everything will click but they have players that can score and really when Imask myself what was the difference between the Knicks last year and the year before all I can come up with was that they were dysfunctional not that they lost really good players.

But are they going to be that kind of Knicks team?

Stoudemire was actually healthier last year than two years ago. They relied more on defensive bigs like Chandler, Rasheed, Kenyon Martin...I think Kurt Thomas may have even been on their roster.

Shumpert is not a good offensive player.

Hardaway has only shown the ability to be a complementary piece, mostly an off-the-ball shooter.

JR Smith is an unpredictable character who I don't think will ever really "get it".

The players have changed pretty significantly over time with the Knicks, so it's hard to just say the change was a matter of dysfunction with the same group. Think that two years ago they had Chandler, Kidd, Camby, Novak...guys like Kenyon Martin, Rasheed Wallace, Kurt Thomas....all kinds of legit competitors/leaders who would not settle for a lack of effort. Now? Well they lost pretty much all their leaders and high character guys. Dysfunction arises when you lose leadership and accountability in the locker room. I don't see that situation significantly improving just because Phil Jackson is there. In the end it's usually the players who have to step up and create that culture. The coach and GM play a role in trying to get that to happen, but the biggest portion of responsibility is still on the players. And the Knicks have a cast of characters that makes me think they'll likely be closer to last year's Knicks than the team of two seasons ago.

[Mediumcore]

Define stacked?

They haven't really gotten significantly better than last year offensively, have they? Jose makes them a bit better on the perimeter....but losing Chandler is even an offensive blow possibly. Who's gonna be the roll man in the p'n'r? Stoudemire? What happens if he's struggling with health again? Their offence will be nothing but jumpers and Melo post-ups.

People sometimes point to Ellington....but he'll be behind Shumpert, JR Smith and Hardaway at the SG position.

I mean, I'm not saying they're a bad offensive team. But I don't see how their O got any kind of significantly better so far this offseason, and I don't think they're any more stacked there than last year. They were 11th last season in team ORTG. Don't know if they really improve on that. Maybe they go up 2-3 spots...but they were 24th in DRTG, and that's likely to get worse.

I'm thinking they will be better because they will be more like the Knicks of two years ago when everyone was healthy and happy. If both Shumpert and Stoudamire are back to 100% and with Hardaway Jr. given a more prominent role and possibly J.R. smith reigned in by HOF GM, it could make the Knicks dangerous. Not to say everything will click but they have players that can score and really when Imask myself what was the difference between the Knicks last year and the year before all I can come up with was that they were dysfunctional not that they lost really good players.

[Axel]

This directly contradicts your point.



Are you going to argue that Melo wasn't a leader on those 07-09 Nuggets?

I think you need to read the thread more carefully. I never made that second quote, but merely made the comment that Melo led teams aren't known for their defence, so people shouldn't expect much D from the Knicks anyway (regardless of Calderon addition and Chandler subtraction). The fact that someone pointed out a single statistical season where Melo's team finish top 10 doesn't change that. Whether it's a statistical anomaly or a fluke season, or whatever, it's all irrelevant to the general point. Melo doesn't try on D, so don't expect many of his teammates to. Adding Jose isn't going to kill the Knicks defensively because the Knicks were never going to be a great defensive team anyway.

[white men can't jump]

LOL, wow, I stand corrected. I guess I should have been more specific to which year or better yet use a Mike D'Antoni team as reference. I should hope my point got across that the Knicks might be a team that relies on offense to win games this season, as they are stacked with guys that can put the ball in the hoop. Somebody fact check that for me!

Define stacked?

They haven't really gotten significantly better than last year offensively, have they? Jose makes them a bit better on the perimeter....but losing Chandler is even an offensive blow possibly. Who's gonna be the roll man in the p'n'r? Stoudemire? What happens if he's struggling with health again? Their offence will be nothing but jumpers and Melo post-ups.

People sometimes point to Ellington....but he'll be behind Shumpert, JR Smith and Hardaway at the SG position.

I mean, I'm not saying they're a bad offensive team. But I don't see how their O got any kind of significantly better so far this offseason, and I don't think they're any more stacked there than last year. They were 11th last season in team ORTG. Don't know if they really improve on that. Maybe they go up 2-3 spots...but they were 24th in DRTG, and that's likely to get worse.