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Inbound Players This Off-Season: Love, Rubio, Mayo...

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  • #46
    Dave, I don't think you have watched enough Mayo. He is one of the better defenders in the League or at least on his towards that status. He can guard three positions, takes pride in playing defense and was the top prospect in the country coming out of high skool. I have loved him for a couple years, so i'm pretty biased.

    He's not a great point guard and while he could learn it, I think he's a natural combo who can play at pg, but not for long stretches.

    Mayo is also only second year after one year of college, so he would still be a junior at USC (if he hadn't already been kicked out for recruiting violations).

    He's a natural scorer whose ceiling is a more athletic Roy.

    Memphis does not seem to be in love with him and are building towards contender status, maybe they are worried about his paying him.

    Thier only hole is PG right now and I don't see how either of our two guys necessarily addresses that issue, but maybe they just want to solidify that position. I can't imagine getting him for less than Jose and Derozan, if that at all. I think that would make our team significantly better, but also more cap flexible, but I also don't really see him wanting to inked long term here.

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    • #47
      Defensive stats aren't great so don't take them as gospel ... in that light, here are Mayo's:

      Mayo's opposing PER is 18.2 for shooting guards. Opposing two guards score more than him, shoot a better percentage than him, out-rebound him, get more assists than him and average fewer turnovers than him.

      The Memphis Grizzlies defense is 3.3 points worse per 100 possessions when OJ Mayo is on the floor than off it.

      Finally, Mayo has dmult score of 1.189 (basketball prospectus stat) which means opposing players do 18.9% better against him than their numbers elsewhere. That is a truly horrific number, I don't think I've actually seen a number that bad before. I'd ignore this number, just remember it as below average. Only 1.044 the year before which I believe is more accurate.

      Memphis as a team is 20th in defensive efficiency and 25th in defensive eFG%.

      -----------------------------------------------

      Now, like I said earlier, individual defensive stats aren't great ... and I think those numbers overstate the issue but I'd agree with the general sentiment that Mayo isn't an above average defender.

      Personally, I rate OJ Mayo as a mediocre defender against two guards and I think he would be a good defender against point guards + become a very good defender in the future. I also think he's a poor defender against small forwards. As Mayo continues to improve defensively, I think he becomes a slightly above average defender versus shooting guards.

      I would also consider Mayo the Grizzlies best, sorry second best now that they have Ronnie Brewer, perimeter defender on their roster ... but that is more about their lack of defensive talent than Mayo's abilities.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Mayo's rebounding -- 3.8rpg in 38.5 minutes which is one rebound every ten minutes. That is very poor for a shooting guard and about average for a point guard. Mayo has a rebound rate of 5.9%.

      DeRozan's rebounding -- 3rpg in 21.8mpg which is one rebound every 7.3 minutes which is very good for a two guard. DeRozan has a rebound rate of 7.9% (a third higher than Mayo).

      Mayo's lack of rebounding becomes a massive issue if forced to play against small forwards. An opposing team would build a rebounding differential of +2.5 on that matchup alone. As a two guard it's only a manageable negative, and, as a point guard it becomes an advantage for his team.

      ------------------------------------------

      Mayo is 6-4 with short arms (6-6 wingspan) and only a 8-3 standing reach which is roughly in between the average marks for a point guard and two guard. Mayo has good speed and very good lateral quickness (for a SG) and solid strength too.

      Physically, his small size will make it difficult for him to become a high end defensive player as a shooting guard. He can achieve it if his defensive work was outstanding but I think he's a long way from that.

      Without having Battier like defensive instincts + discipline it will very difficult for Mayo, given his size, to become a high end defensive player as a two guard.
      nbaroundtable

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      • #48
        My issue with Mayo as a shooting guard is that he doesn't make enough of an impact on the game outside of scoring (defense/rebounding/passing).

        I don't think that changes in the future which is why I would like to see Memphis try to develop him into a point guard.
        nbaroundtable

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        • #49
          Advantage Dave.

          nice rebuttal.

          I'm not a big stat guy, I prefer to watch a guy play, but its hard to ignore all that evidence.

          They said the same thing about Durant last year, his plus minus was awful and the team scored almost as much when he played and defended much better when he sat. All of a sudden one year later he's in the MVP conversation and his team is top 7 in defense.

          I feel Memphis is a bad fit for him. Him and Gay have similar games and Randolph while effective is somewhat of a black hole. That's a hard team to get dimes on. With boards you have Gay, Randolph and Gasol as good rebounders as opposed to the raps who only have Bosh.

          The thing I like about Mayo is that he seems to have just the right amount of swagger. He knows he's good, but he doesn't force shots and in just his second year he already seems to have grown out of his head case phase. He seems like a guy who elevates his game when it matters most and would thrive in high pressure play off situations. Of course this is just speculation.

          How many two guards successfully get converted into pg's though, I feel like you either get it playing the point or you don't, I'm not sure if he has that feel.

          Moving forward I would love to add Mayo as a cornerstone of the franchise and would happily give up Derozan and anyone else on the roster outside of Amir, but of course thats just me.

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          • #50
            Mayo had rave reviews on defense in his college days. People praised him for locking down Rose at MSG. I would have to agree with Mo about Memphis being a bad fit, hence them trying to make a move.

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            • #51
              Apollo wrote: View Post
              Mayo had rave reviews on defense in his college days. People praised him for locking down Rose at MSG. I would have to agree with Mo about Memphis being a bad fit, hence them trying to make a move.
              its not that hard to do in college. offenses are so rudimentary in the college game and players have not reached their peak abilities. rose at memphis was not even close to the player he is now.

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              • #52
                One on one he locked down Derrick Rose. Rose at Memphis was pretty damn good. Rose at Memphis was as good as Rose in his rookie season.

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                • #53
                  I think there are a couple of different ways to play the point guard position (offensively speaking). Let's say three main phases:

                  (1) Main creative force, responsible for individually creating shots for his teammates = Chris Paul and Deron Williams as examples = Mayo will fail in this role. He hasn't shown that type of skill set. He hasn't shown the ability to create for others to a high enough level to succeed in this role.

                  (2) Steady floor general with great decision making = Chauncey Billups and Tony Parker as examples = Possible that Mayo could succeed here but it's not certain. He has shown some of the necessary characteristics but needs further development.

                  (3) Scoring point guard who's playmaking/passing responsibilities are limited = example of Mo Williams playing alongside a LeBron James figure = OJ Mayo is a certainty to succeed here.

                  --------------------------------------------------------------------

                  If Mayo can become an above average defender + above average rebounder + continue his scoring numbers = Large individual positive impact on his team (perennial All-Star).

                  Now, those contributions are solely based on Mayo becoming a Mo Williams style of point guard offensively. If OJ Mayo does develop and become a more heady floor general like Chauncey Billups did back in the day, then his impact leaps onto a whole other level (All-NBA talent).

                  So it would be comparable scoring output combined with improved contributions defensively + rebounding.

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                  There are normally somewhere between half a dozen and a dozen wing players who are good enough passing/playmaking ability to take a large dose (not all of it) of those responsibilities off their point guard's plate. If my memory serves me, there were ten such players in the league this season.

                  Then there is another group of teams who can play through the low post and reduce their point guard's duties that way. Albeit less of those types of teams these days than in years past.

                  And other teams who run a non-PG centric offense like the Triangle offense which focuses on ball movement and cutting instead of creative play from the point guard.

                  A team can achieve a Mo Williams style situation through any of those methods. The Raptors have Hedo Turkoglu, an elite passing wing, so that would be the easiest option for them to take. I'd be a big fan of Colangelo engineering this type of a situation in the offseason.

                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  Anyway, it's the direction I'd love to see OJ Mayo take in his career.

                  I'm hoping that Memphis tries to turn him into a point guard. I think that change in position will allow him to get the most out of his abilities.
                  Last edited by Dave; Mon Mar 29, 2010, 06:46 PM.
                  nbaroundtable

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