GAME 4: Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics 09/05/20 6:30 PM ET SN

[DanH]

Just checked.. in the Boston series (4 games), he leads the team in defensive rating with 99.5 (not including guys like Matt, Boucher, or TD since they have hardly played). He's second in Net Rating with +1.5 after Kyle (+5.1), again not including the low minute guys.

Marc's not the issue. In fact the more Marc plays it's probably more beneficial to us. At least in this series.

But like everyone else on the team he can be a lot better.

If we take out game 1 which was just garbage all around, in the three games that have been competitive, the Raptors have a +13 net rating in Gasol’s minutes and a -9 net rating while he sits, in two fairly equal minute samples (except for the minutes when he sits tending to be against Boston’s bench, not their starters).

It’s absolutely crazy that this discussion is still happening on here. Marc’s not only not the issue, he’s a huge reason we are tied in the series right now instead of having already lost, the more obvious heroes in Lowry and OG aside. And yeah, I’d love if he could hit some dang threes, but that’s a nice-to-have compared to everything else he brings.

[DanH]

It is absolutely a coincidence imo.

Yesterday Marc checks in with 4:48 remaining:
-Kyle hits a 3 from OG
-Marcus Smart gets Oreb and Gasol fouls him, Smart makes one free throw
-Fred misses shot
-Theis turnover
-Marc makes easy bucket thanks to Kyle setup
-Kemba misses three
-Kyle fouled, hits fts
-Brown hits three
-Marc misses jumper
-Og blocks Brown, Marc gets rebound
-Kyle misses jumper
-Tatum misses three, Marc fouls on the offensive rebound (again)
-Theis misses both free throws
-Marc is subbed out with 1:00 to go

So we outscored them by 3 points, yes, but Marc had barely any impact. 1 fg and 1 rebound and 2 fouls in 3:48. He wasn't forcing those missed threes by the Celtics either. And if the Celtics had made their free throws Marc would have been a 0 in +/-.

It's weird that you are still using him winning his minutes as evidence of anything. Like just watching Marc out there it is pretty obvious that he is a shell of his former self. I love the guy but he looks really rough right now.

We won this game in spite of Marc, not because of him.

Sigh. How big a sample do you need to convince you that these things are not coincidences? We have consistently, since the first game he played for us last season, been dramatically better with him on the court than with Serge. Every step of the way, there will be sequences like the above where of course he’s not directly involved in every play on the ball, but that does not mean he is not affecting the play. And every step of the way, the Raptors “coincidentally” tend to do better in those minutes than they do in similar situations when Serge is at C.

[Jangles]

The guy who had Kawhi is 6-2 this year without either.

I was not a fan of Casey during the latter part of his time with us. Having said that 4 of our wins during these playoffs have been against a G-League equivalent team.

[saints91]

Casey helped bring a culture of winning and stability to this franchise. While I do agree Nick is the better coach. The reason this version of the Raptors are winning is because of experience and confidence. To get that you have to be battle tested and go through adversity. You can’t take away what Coach Casey did. We’re lucky to have both of these coaches in our history.

[golden]

Casey helped bring a culture of winning and stability to this franchise. While I do agree Nick is the better coach. The reason this version of the Raptors are winning is because of experience and confidence. To get that you have to be battle tested and go through adversity. You can’t take away what Coach Casey did. We’re lucky to have both of these coaches in our history.

Not to downplay anything Casey did, but winning didn't start when he arrived. Winning started when we traded Rudy Gay and more importantly (and luckily) when we did not trade Kyle Lowry. Then Masai had the now legendary sit-down with Lowry to straighten him out, and the rest is history. That's the genesis of the 'winning culture'. We could have had Nate McMillan or Mike Brown, and it would have been the same result.

[DogeLover1234]

The guy who had Kawhi is 6-2 this year without either.

Lol this roster is better than any Casey ever had. Its fair to say Casey is the second best coach in franchise history without putting down Nurse. Nurse is great, but like Kerr benefited from taking over the best roster in teams history

[G__Deane]

Its obvious that I am one of harshest if not the only out of bounds hyper-basher of Nick Nurse pre-Bucks series last off season. I softened my stance when he got us our first championship. Not to the extent as last season pre-Bucks series, But still annoyed with him this pre-Covid season especially his love-affair with the garbage of a player in McCaw.

Win or Lose, Now I am fully committed to jump on his bandwagon. His major in-game adjustments defensively against the Celtics in game 4 is why he is an unconventional “outside of the box” progressive coach of this league. His players especially the ever difficult Greatest Raptor of All Time Klye Lowry totally drank his kool-aid and immersed themselves in their committment to their coach’s different styles of schemes at both ends. Even with inferior talent, he maximized his players abilities. How much more if he once again, he get awarded with another superstar like Kawhi.

Well done COY.

Don't feel bad.
I think I was his only defender at one time and took a lot of heat for it. To be fair, I defended him a ton before and when he didn't deserve (all of) it.

[G__Deane]

It is absolutely a coincidence imo.

Yesterday Marc checks in with 4:48 remaining:
-Kyle hits a 3 from OG
-Marcus Smart gets Oreb and Gasol fouls him, Smart makes one free throw
-Fred misses shot
-Theis turnover
-Marc makes easy bucket thanks to Kyle setup
-Kemba misses three
-Kyle fouled, hits fts
-Brown hits three
-Marc misses jumper
-Og blocks Brown, Marc gets rebound
-Kyle misses jumper
-Tatum misses three, Marc fouls on the offensive rebound (again)
-Theis misses both free throws
-Marc is subbed out with 1:00 to go

So we outscored them by 3 points, yes, but Marc had barely any impact. 1 fg and 1 rebound and 2 fouls in 3:48. He wasn't forcing those missed threes by the Celtics either. And if the Celtics had made their free throws Marc would have been a 0 in +/-.

It's weird that you are still using him winning his minutes as evidence of anything. Like just watching Marc out there it is pretty obvious that he is a shell of his former self. I love the guy but he looks really rough right now.

We won this game in spite of Marc, not because of him.

That's why stats can lie.

[G__Deane]

One of those guys had Kawhi while the other one had DeMar. Also notable.

True but one also had Kawhi part time in the regular season and the other had DeMar. And the record improved percentage wise without Kawhi.....mike drop.

Casey was pretty good but limited, Nurse is elite.

[DanH]

That's why stats can lie.

No, but people can misunderstand what stats are saying.

In this case, the stats are saying that the Raptors won their minutes while Gasol was on the court. Nothing more, nothing less. They don’t tell us anything about causality.

It is up to us to determine what we think is more logical - that the Raptors are winning those minutes and struggling in other minutes because Gasol is better than Serge, or in spite of Serge being/playing better than Gasol. And then we need to determine over what period to project that reasoning. Because the stats say that the Raptors have been winning Gasol’s minutes by a lot more than they’ve been winning Serge’s minutes since Gasol got here a year and a half ago, even adjusting for the players each plays with. So, do we think they are winning in spite of Gasol the entire time? Do we think they are winning in spite of Gasol just recently while he was actually helping before this, and if so, what are the odds that the results are so similar while the cause has apparently shifted?

That’s the part where people claim that stats lie. They see something that literally just describes what happened (ie the Raptors have been beating the tar off the Celtics with Gasol and specifically the current version of the starters on the court from game 2 on), but for some reason or another don’t accept that he could possibly be the (or even a) cause of that. So, the stats must be lying. They go hunting for micro illustrations to support their points because they know the larger trends do not, even though they know that the larger trends are the more reliable, and should know that even within the micro illustrations, there are causalities that are non-obvious (and that show themselves in the large sample data).

And then there is the last bastion of the denier - coincidence. Coincidence happens in small samples. Yeah, the +3 Gasol managed in Q4 is largely a coincidence. So too is every player’s success or failure over a few minutes. You can only control so much as one player of ten. But when small successes align with longer term, larger sample ones, you know that it’s not entirely a coincidence or it wouldn’t just keep happening, all the dang time. Or, you should know.

[DanH]

Lol this roster is better than any Casey ever had. Its fair to say Casey is the second best coach in franchise history without putting down Nurse. Nurse is great, but like Kerr benefited from taking over the best roster in teams history

I don’t think the players on this team are viewed the same way re: quality of the roster if Casey was coaching the last two years.

Absolutely, last year’s team was an amazingly talented outfit. And would have lost in the 2nd round under Casey. Losing Kawhi was a huge loss, and yet here we are yet again, one of the top seeds in the East and looking way better in the playoffs than any team under Casey did.

Oh and Casey is absolutely the second best coach in Raptors history, easily. But that doesn’t mean he’s remotely close to the coach Nurse is. It just means that Raptors coaching history is littered with truly awful coaches.

[DanH]

I was not a fan of Casey during the latter part of his time with us. Having said that 4 of our wins during these playoffs have been against a G-League equivalent team.

Okay, so call it 2-2 without either, a dramatically better win% than Casey’s, entirely against a Boston team that is far better than any non-LeBron team the Casey Raptors ever faced.

[G__Deane]

You keep feeling you have to write paragraph after paragraph day after day defending Gasol; you don't have to convince me or I'm sure quite a few others.

I have been squarely in the hugely defensible camp of Gasol can and should be better, you need more than a few measly points and some nice passing out of your 7' starting centre. He could stretch the floor more, he could get his teammates better looks under less defensive pressure, we could win a few more games by a bit better margin, he could easily drop a few more buckets and easily grab a couple more rebounds without altering anything you praise him for at all .... but you like to argue that too. *shrug*

Trivia: before Gasol, who was the last Raptor to foul out in 2 of 3 playoff games?

Even Marc knows he could be better and both Kyle and Nurse have hinted they have asked more of him.

[saints91]

I think no one is disagreeing that Nick is the better coach. Casey still deserves credit for being a part of the culture that helped build the Raptor culture we see today. Not completely but an even part. We have the front office we’ve ever had and the best coach we’ve ever had. As fans we’re pretty damn lucky. We all suffered though enough bad basketball.

[DanH]

You keep feeling you have to write paragraph after paragraph day after day defending Gasol; you don't have to convince me or I'm sure quite a few others.

I have been squarely in the hugely defensible camp of Gasol can and should be better, you need more than a few measly points and some nice passing out of your 7' starting centre. He could stretch the floor more, he could get his teammates better looks under less defensive pressure, we could win a few more games by a bit better margin, he could easily drop a few more buckets and easily grab a couple more rebounds without altering anything you praise him for at all .... but you like to argue that too. *shrug*

Trivia: before Gasol, who was the last Raptor to foul out in 2 of 3 playoff games?

Even Marc knows he could be better and both Kyle and Nurse have hinted they have asked more of him.

What specifically did the stats lie about that you were referencing? The point Scraptor seemed to be making (and apologies to Scraptor if I misread this) is that me being glad Gasol was in to close the 4th until he fouled out was misplaced, as the team’s success there was entirely coincidental to Gasol’s presence, and would have had just as much success if not more if Serge were in his place for those minutes. You seemed to agree with that position with your stats lie comment.

I never said that Gasol can’t be better. I’ve said multiple times I’d like to see him hit more shots. But I would also not give his minutes to Serge even with his current lack of production, because the team always gets worse when they do that. Feel free to criticize Gasol for his lack of production and ask more of him. I’ll continue to be happy with his lack of production SO LONG as it comes along with team success while he plays. In either case, neither of us should be thinking more Serge is a good thing, because it isn’t. I guess for the Celtics it would be.