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GAME 6, ECSF: Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics - Wednesday, September 9th, 6:30pm ET - SN/ESPN

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  • KeonClark wrote: View Post

    Its because it's a team brand of basketball. Nba basketball doesnt utilize its bigs the same way. Here they mostly just set screens and rebound and watch the guards play.
    Hmm interesting. Thank you for bringing that to my attention. Learned something.

    Comment


    • KeonClark wrote: View Post

      But we've lost the first quarter in every single game, and struggled on offense. I'm not suggesting we take away Marcs minutes, I'm saying we need an offensive injection earlier so as not to spot them a lead. He's down to about 15 minutes a game anyways, it's almost like the mandatory Luis Scola start keeping a spot warm at this point. And no, I'm not literally comparing him to Luis Scola

      And..8 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover and 5 personal fouls in 16 minutes is a "bounce back performance"? My, how the mighty have fallen
      Wouldnt mind starting Ibaka or at least getting him in early. Hes much more of a spark than Marc - plus hes shown hes got the confidence to take all his normal shots. I feel like getting an early lead is big in a game seven, put all the pressure on Boston and see how they handle it.

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      • KeonClark wrote: View Post

        But we've lost the first quarter in every single game, and struggled on offense. I'm not suggesting we take away Marcs minutes, I'm saying we need an offensive injection earlier so as not to spot them a lead. He's down to about 15 minutes a game anyways, it's almost like the mandatory Luis Scola start keeping a spot warm at this point. And no, I'm not literally comparing him to Luis Scola

        And..8 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover and 5 personal fouls in 16 minutes is a "bounce back performance"? My, how the mighty have fallen
        I wouldn't call it a bounce back performance yet. He hit 2 3s, which is a start. If he can come out next game hitting a few more, hes good. I suspect Nurse will use the small ball line up with OG at the 5 more in Game 7.

        Comment


        • golden wrote: View Post

          The way Lowry is playing, I could probably start and win my minutes.
          Yeah if player X is playing with 4 other guys that are awesome, while player Y is playing with a group that is not as strong, chances are player X is going to "win his minutes" by a wider margin than player Y. Inferring just from this that Player X is therefore better (or a better a fit) than player Y is a flimsy argument at best.

          If, theoretically, Zubac is "winning his minutes" by a wider margin than Lou Williams is, it doesn't necessarily mean Zubac is playinng better than Lou Williams, it probably means Zubac has had the chance to share the floor with Kawhi Leonard more often than Lou Williams has.

          To truly compare apples to apples, you'd have to
          1. Compare player X and Y sharing the floor with the same teammates
          2. Against the same opponents.
          3. Have recent enough numbers (as opposed to numbers from 1 or 2 years ago when players were of different age, playing with teammates at different age and different stages of development then currently).
          4. Have sample that is large enough

          Because it's virtually impossible to tick all these 4 boxes, trying to infer which player is a better fit based on "team +/-" or who is "winning his minutes" is very unreliable. It's just as useless as individual raw +/-, which is the whore of basketball statistics: It's awesome when it fits someones' biased narrative, but all of sudden useless when it doesn't fit it.

          What's crystal clear now is this: Gasol is rarely looking at the basket. So the Celtics ignore him on D, which makes the rest of our offence more difficult. He doesn't rebound well, his assists are low (because he passes back to guys that are already heavily guarded), and he's fouling more than usual because he's a step slower. He may be able to turn it around eventually, but we just don't have the time and margin of error for that anymore against the Celtics, which is why the last 2 games he only play 15 minutes a piece. Nurse is seeing that the offence just grinds to a halt with him (even though guys like Lowry & OG are pulling heroics and indirectly helping him "win his minutes").

          If given the chance, any one of Norm/Serge/Thomas/TD would help our offence WAY more than Gasol. And that's where the hole on the ship is: the offence, not the defence. Any of these guys would also most likely "win their minutes" playing alongside Lowry and monster defenders like Siakam & OG, especially considering that, unlike Gasol, they would also score and space the floor.

          Will Nick start any of these guys? Certainly not. There's a hierarchy, and some attachment/respect to what Gasol did for us last year, even though he was younger, the teammates were different, and the opponents were different and better suited for him like Embiid/Vucevic). So we'll most likely, start Gasol again, play 4 on 5 offence on the first quarter again, dig ourselves our usual hole, and just hope Lowry/Serge/OG/Norm can actually continue to put the damn ball in basket often enough to dig us out of it when they come in.
          2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

          Comment


          • inthepaint wrote: View Post

            Yeah if player X is playing with 4 other guys that are awesome, while player Y is playing with a group that is not as strong, chances are player X is going to "win his minutes" by a wider margin than player Y. Inferring just from this that Player X is therefore better (or a better a fit) than player Y is a flimsy argument at best.

            If, theoretically, Zubac is "winning his minutes" by a wider margin than Lou Williams is, it doesn't necessarily mean Zubac is playinng better than Lou Williams, it probably means Zubac has had the chance to share the floor with Kawhi Leonard more often than Lou Williams has.

            To truly compare apples to apples, you'd have to
            1. Compare player X and Y sharing the floor with the same teammates
            2. Against the same opponents.
            3. Have recent enough numbers (as opposed to numbers from 1 or 2 years ago when players were of different age, playing with teammates at different age and different stages of development then currently).
            4. Have sample that is large enough

            Because it's virtually impossible to tick all these 4 boxes, trying to infer which player is a better fit based on "team +/-" or who is "winning his minutes" is very unreliable. It's just as useless as individual raw +/-, which is the whore of basketball statistics: It's awesome when it fits someones' biased narrative, but all of sudden useless when it doesn't fit it.

            What's crystal clear now is this: Gasol is rarely looking at the basket. So the Celtics ignore him on D, which makes the rest of our offence more difficult. He doesn't rebound well, his assists are low (because he passes back to guys that are already heavily guarded), and he's fouling more than usual because he's a step slower. He may be able to turn it around eventually, but we just don't have the time and margin of error for that anymore against the Celtics, which is why the last 2 games he only play 15 minutes a piece. Nurse is seeing that the offence just grinds to a halt with him (even though guys like Lowry & OG are pulling heroics and indirectly helping him "win his minutes").

            If given the chance, any one of Norm/Serge/Thomas/TD would help our offence WAY more than Gasol. And that's where the hole on the ship is: the offence, not the defence. Any of these guys would also most likely "win their minutes" playing alongside Lowry and monster defenders like Siakam & OG, especially considering that, unlike Gasol, they would also score and space the floor.

            Will Nick start any of these guys? Certainly not. There's a hierarchy, and some attachment/respect to what Gasol did for us last year, even though he was younger, the teammates were different, and the opponents were different and better suited for him like Embiid/Vucevic). So we'll most likely, start Gasol again, play 4 on 5 offence on the first quarter again, dig ourselves our usual hole, and just hope Lowry/Serge/OG/Norm can actually continue to put the damn ball in basket often enough to dig us out of it when they come in.
            Yeah, Norm finally got a chance to play extended minutes with the starters and voila..... Playoff Powell found his superman cape. Go figure.

            Comment


            • DanH wrote: View Post

              Taking an average when there have been two complete eggs laid, while the other games the current starters literally dragged the team to the wins (and close loss) they do have, is a little disingenuous.

              The starters won their minutes in games 2, 3, 4 and 6. By a combined 29 points over 77 minutes (181-152, or prorated to a 48 minute game, 113-95, for easy reference), across 4 games where the team's point differential was +8 (total, so +2 on average). True, they have completely collapsed in games 1 and 5. But who here really believes those disasters go any differently with a different starting lineup? Some of you might, I think you are wrong, but it's an unprovable theorem on my part. But why change the stuff that has actually worked in most of the games so far? Never mind that has worked all season long?

              Nick didn't swap Gasol out after his worst outing of the year in game 5. He's not doing it after his bounce back performance in game 6, even if he was a little reticent for my taste in bringing Gasol back in to close (that small unit crapped the bed late in regulation, though they eventually came through in OT).
              Gasol's minutes this post season are almost exclusively in that 5 man starting lineup. 165 minutes played with the starters. Next most common lineup he's in is 8 total minutes with Powell in for FVV. But as others have pointed out---still with Lowry, OG, Siakam. Gasol has played 3 minutes all playoffs in a lineup without both Lowry and OG. It's fair to question whether the other 4 starters are carrying him. Like....really really fair.

              Lastly, if you compare lineups this postseason with Ibaka and the starters instead of Gasol, the Ibaka lineup has a higher OFFRTG, a lower DEFRTG, obviously a better net rating, better Reb%, better EFG%, better TS%, and plays at a pace of 103 vs 99 with Gasol.

              I actually think Gasol will still start tomorrow but you are really really really cherry picking.

              Comment


              • Ive been hard on Gasol this series and think it rightfully so. But there is still a role for him vs these guys.
                We saw in the begging of the 4th that celtics hunt serge on the PNR and get the corner 3. With serge on we gotta play the zone. But cant overdo it so celtics get comfortable. we can stagger serge when kembas off, play zone or go small but that still leave about 20ish minutes that Gasol has to eat up.
                I was encouraged by his 2nd half and maybe he is turning it around but to start the bubble he looked washed, hopefully he can still find old Gasol and yesterday 4 minute spurt showed its still in there somewhere
                To be the champs you got to beat the champs

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                • Celtics fans may be a bit salty at this news ... league office has issued the last two minute report from Game #6 and determined that Kemba was fouled on the last Boston possession in the 4th quarter (wasn't called)

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                  • Ebonhawke wrote: View Post
                    Celtics fans may be a bit salty at this news ... league office has issued the last two minute report from Game #6 and determined that Kemba was fouled on the last Boston possession in the 4th quarter (wasn't called)
                    Great.
                    Makeup calls carry over ....

                    Comment


                    • KeonClark wrote: View Post

                      But we've lost the first quarter in every single game, and struggled on offense. I'm not suggesting we take away Marcs minutes, I'm saying we need an offensive injection earlier so as not to spot them a lead. He's down to about 15 minutes a game anyways, it's almost like the mandatory Luis Scola start keeping a spot warm at this point. And no, I'm not literally comparing him to Luis Scola

                      And..8 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover and 5 personal fouls in 16 minutes is a "bounce back performance"? My, how the mighty have fallen
                      Compared to game 5 it sure is.

                      Meanwhile, the starters are +4 over 28 first Q minutes in those 4 games I mentioned. The first Q struggles can’t be blamed on them, if we are facing early deficits it’s because the guy people want to start over Gasol comes in and loses his end of 1st Q minutes.

                      He played 15 minutes... in a game where he was in foul trouble. He’s been in the mid-20’s in minutes in every competitive game otherwise.
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

                      Comment


                      • Rudy Bargnani wrote: View Post

                        Gasol's minutes this post season are almost exclusively in that 5 man starting lineup. 165 minutes played with the starters. Next most common lineup he's in is 8 total minutes with Powell in for FVV. But as others have pointed out---still with Lowry, OG, Siakam. Gasol has played 3 minutes all playoffs in a lineup without both Lowry and OG. It's fair to question whether the other 4 starters are carrying him. Like....really really fair.

                        Lastly, if you compare lineups this postseason with Ibaka and the starters instead of Gasol, the Ibaka lineup has a higher OFFRTG, a lower DEFRTG, obviously a better net rating, better Reb%, better EFG%, better TS%, and plays at a pace of 103 vs 99 with Gasol.

                        I actually think Gasol will still start tomorrow but you are really really really cherry picking.
                        I take it you are including the Nets series looking at those numbers? Colour me convinced by that very representative sample of playoff basketball. Because Ibaka with the starters has been getting shredded on defence by Boston.

                        The starters have a +2.3 net rating in this series, even with the two complete disasters of games 1 and 5, entirely on the strength of their defence. About 100 minutes played. Sub Serge in for Marc and it’s about the same total results - a +1.2 net rating in 30 minutes, based on a giant leap in offensive rating and an even bigger defensive collapse. This is our magic fix? The real starters just need a couple guys to get hot from three to fix their offensive woes. How do you fix a broken defence? I guess hope the Celtics start missing their layups.
                        twitter.com/dhackett1565

                        Comment


                        • I think the real answer is the small ball lineup, not an Ibaka lineup. Gasol and Ibaka will both get some minutes. Hopefully Ibaka isn't too hobbled, because Boston knows how to put him through the ringer as soon as he's on the floor. He doesn't move as well around the floor as Gasol because his defensive awareness isn't as good. There are obvious missed rotations and missed box outs when Ibaka's in the game. Gasol for his part is playing in flip flops and clearly not at his peak anymore. or even where he was at last spring. Letting Norm get into a groove was a good move and the right thing. I'd like to see more run for Lowry/FVV/Norm/Siakam/OG.

                          The small lineup just has to sort out the Theis backdoor cuts and that should just take a bit of film between games 6 + 7.
                          "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                          • S.R. wrote: View Post
                            I think the real answer is the small ball lineup, not an Ibaka lineup. Gasol and Ibaka will both get some minutes. Hopefully Ibaka isn't too hobbled, because Boston knows how to put him through the ringer as soon as he's on the floor. He doesn't move as well around the floor as Gasol because his defensive awareness isn't as good. There are obvious missed rotations and missed box outs when Ibaka's in the game. Gasol for his part is playing in flip flops and clearly not at his peak anymore. or even where he was at last spring. Letting Norm get into a groove was a good move and the right thing. I'd like to see more run for Lowry/FVV/Norm/Siakam/OG.

                            The small lineup just has to sort out the Theis backdoor cuts and that should just take a bit of film between games 6 + 7.
                            The small lineup wasn't exactly great down the stretch but it was definitely promising. Especially if Marc is going to keep getting in foul trouble. I totally agree that the small look might be the closing look, and would be a good way to compress both bigs' minutes if Marc is struggling, especially in the middle of quarters in those spots where they usually transition between the starters and the Ibaka/Powell subs. I doubt we start with that look though.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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