Everything Off Season

[Demographic Shift]

can Powell & OG get you Beal?

Maybe....just not in Washington.

[NeedTristanThompson]

Maybe....just not in Washington.

LOOK AT THIS ARTICLE

Next offseason WE're OK

#LBJ20211111111 +
#GIANNIS202111111111 +
#KAWHI2021111111

FORGET #LEBRONTO IT's now like

#TORONBRON
#TORONBRON202111111

[Quirk]

Knicks get Austin Rivers? Question for DanH, PIPM has Rivers as really good offensively, horrible defensively. BPM has him as horrible offensively, and just kinda bad defensively. How could these two impact stats have such radically opposing view on this player? Production stats seem to show that he started off historically bad, and now is just bad.

What's is your take on this? Asking to better understand the differences in these stats.

[Dr Hannibal Lecter]

Think this is re Len, and not Baynes, but it’s about one of the two.

Masai and Co covering all their bases, as we would expect.

No on OG..for me his more of keeper than siakim, anyway..Freddy, OG and Siakim..there not going nowhere.

[GOLDBLUM]

No on OG..for me his more of keeper than siakim, anyway..Freddy, OG and Siakim..there not going nowhere.

Just to be clear... you wouldn’t trade OG for Giannis?

I mean, I’m really holding onto the hope we’ll see them play together... but if this is the only way it happens, yeah, I think you do it.

(I suspect Masai would feel the same.)

[Ebonhawke]

Just to be clear... you wouldn’t trade OG for Giannis?

I mean, I’m really holding onto the hope we’ll see them play together... but if this is the only way it happens, yeah, I think you do it.

(I suspect Masai would feel the same.)

I wouldn't trade OG for one year of Giannis - if one of the conditions of the deal was a contract extension, then I'd consider it

[Demographic Shift]

I wouldn't trade OG for one year of Giannis - if one of the conditions of the deal was a contract extension, then I'd consider it

Well the last time we rolled the dice in the same situation with a guy named Leonard we did OK...
I would do it again 100 times out of 99.
Why the hesitation ?

So another flyer type question...
Sitting on the FA list sits the sole owner and proprietor of Waiters Island.

Anyone think the equivalent of the one night stand for Dion on one and one team option for 1M$ is worth it. ?
Would you do it ?
He should have more of an impact than Stan...
Any takers ?

[Kagemusha]

Well the last time we rolled the dice in the same situation with a guy named Leonard we did OK...
I would do it again 100 times out of 99.
Why the hesitation ?

So another flyer type question...
Sitting on the FA list sits the sole owner and proprietor of Waiters Island.

Anyone think the equivalent of the one night stand for Dion on one and one team option for 1M$ is worth it. ?
Would you do it ?
He should have more of an impact than Stan...
Any takers ?

Do you seriously equate Giannis with Kawhi?

[TrueTorontoFan]

personally i'd waaaaaaaaay rather have giannis over OG if given an option like that HOWEVER, i'd rather keep both

[Ebonhawke]

Well the last time we rolled the dice in the same situation with a guy named Leonard we did OK...
I would do it again 100 times out of 99.
Why the hesitation ?

Because the situation is completely different than Kawhi

With Kawhi, you had a disgruntled star who wanted out of town, who wasn't a large presence in the community, and had sat out most of the previous season with injury - meaning the team/fans had gotten used to him not being on the court, and it's an easier 'sell' by management that anything you got in return for Kawhi was better than the likely zero return when he walked in free agency.

With Giannis, you have the reigning MVP of the league, who's still demonstrating year-over-year improvement. You also have a team that has committed multiple transactions in the off-season to try to tailor their team to address adjustments that are being made by other teams to try to deal with his skillset. The return in any trade for Giannis will dwarf what was given to Kawhi - and likely will require multiple impact players, because Milwaukee fans aren't going to settle for future first round picks as the return - no matter how many. Therefore, the chances of attaining a title are diminished, because the Raptors will have had to ship out a lot of the surrounding pieces for Giannis.

For at least the start of the 2021 season, the Raptors will be playing home games in Tampa - how do you 'sell' Giannis on living in Toronto, if he hasn't spent any time living in the city? If there are no fans in the stands if, and when, the Raptors do return to Toronto, how do you sell him on a city/fanbase that he doesn't get to experience.

Finally, in January 2021, you will have a new political administration in the US, who has signaled that they will take a much more aggressive action with regards to COVID-19 than the current administration - what that means for sporting and recreation events at this point is unknown - but not hard to imagine that *something* might happen that will impact the season - so the Raptors might not even get a full season of Giannis

[DanH]

Knicks get Austin Rivers? Question for DanH, PIPM has Rivers as really good offensively, horrible defensively. BPM has him as horrible offensively, and just kinda bad defensively. How could these two impact stats have such radically opposing view on this player? Production stats seem to show that he started off historically bad, and now is just bad.

What's is your take on this? Asking to better understand the differences in these stats.

The reason BPM differs so radically from basically all other impact stats is that it is not an impact stat.

Most impact stats correlate box scores to RAPM to see what box score stats tend to predict a player has positive offensive and defensive impact, on average, then use each player’s small sample box score numbers to create priors for them, to use in the regression that generates the impact number like RPM. PIPM goes a step further and includes luck factors (ie if you are on the court while Marcus Smart goes 5/5 from three it’s not really your fault), which helps it stabilize faster. BPM stops after the box score correlation and applies it directly to the box score stats for each player, and runs no plus minus data regression at all. It’s meant purely as a way to try to compare to players and seasons from before detailed tracking data was available. Its average relationship to RAPM and APM is decent, but for each single player there are huge variations. It’s a largely useless stat except for its use historically. Any of the other new age impact stats are miles more useful.

[DanH]

The real reason the Raptors don’t give up OG in a Giannis trade is if he really wants to come here (and him already deciding he’s leaving is the only way the Bucks trade him) they can just sign him in the summer.

[Quirk]

The reason BPM differs so radically from basically all other impact stats is that it is not an impact stat.

Most impact stats correlate box scores to RAPM to see what box score stats tend to predict a player has positive offensive and defensive impact, on average, then use each player’s small sample box score numbers to create priors for them, to use in the regression that generates the impact number like RPM. PIPM goes a step further and includes luck factors (ie if you are on the court while Marcus Smart goes 5/5 from three it’s not really your fault), which helps it stabilize faster. BPM stops after the box score correlation and applies it directly to the box score stats for each player, and runs no plus minus data regression at all. It’s meant purely as a way to try to compare to players and seasons from before detailed tracking data was available. Its average relationship to RAPM and APM is decent, but for each single player there are huge variations. It’s a largely useless stat except for its use historically. Any of the other new age impact stats are miles more useful.

Thanks, so what do you make of the completely different picture painted of Rivers? Is he a terrific offensive player with terrible defense, as PIPM indicates, or a horrible offensive player, who is just pretty bad on defense, as BPM shows. or, as production stats suggest, is just pretty bad across the board?

The differences are not just quantitative, but say conflicting things, since he can't be both a great and a terrible offensive player.

What's your take on how to read this?

Why would a stats guy like Morey bring this player to Houston?

[NeedTristanThompson]

The real reason the Raptors don’t give up OG in a Giannis trade is if he really wants to come here (and him already deciding he’s leaving is the only way the Bucks trade him) they can just sign him in the summer.

Hm but u kno so then why did LBJ rush the AD thing? Was it bcz he wanted to win a championship ASAP or was it cap reasons?

Bcz u kno, KLOE is amazing but he will age out someday, just like LBJ did. There might be case for rushing a championship shot, bcz we don't kno FVV will ever be quite as good

#KLOE20211111
#GIANNIS20200000000
#KAWHIIII202111111

Do you seriously equate Giannis with Kawhi?

Why would u not???

I sure do!

#GIANNIS2021111111111
#KAWHIIIII20211111111111111

[DanH]

Thanks, so what do you make of the completely different picture painted of Rivers? Is he a terrific offensive player with terrible defense, as PIPM indicates, or a horrible offensive player, who is just pretty bad on defense, as BPM shows. or, as production stats suggest, is just pretty bad across the board?

The differences are not just quantitative, but say conflicting things, since he can't be both a great and a terrible offensive player.

What's your take on how to read this?

Why would a stats guy like Morey bring this player to Houston?

I don't think it's as simple as being great or terrible. Production stats tell us he is pretty bad at putting up individual numbers, so it's no surprise that BPM assumes he would not have a great impact offensively.

PIPM is clearly seeing a significant plus minus impact to be out weighing those production priors, meaning that he very likely does small things to help out a team that don't show up in the box score.

Still wouldn't call him a great offensive player (you'd at least want to look at longer term trends, like what his OPIPM was like for the last few seasons to see if maybe this is a small sample variation - even quickly stabilizing plus-minus stats can be victims of that), but you could probably make the case that in the right role he can make a positive difference on offence. That role will be key though, as his production numbers show he won't be able to generate offence on his own.

In Houston I imagine he'll be asked to do only little things, given the structure of their offence. So it might work out. But to have a good grasp on the role he seems to have succeeded in I'd need to have watched him some and I haven't really.