Everything Off Season

[DanH]

I mean like making sure that the cap is in line for 2021... if it’s not Giannis, then really, what’s the point. You said he’s not the only one. Who’s coming through that door to save us as a free agent?

Again. You plan for Giannis. Maybe it ends up being Kawhi? Or yeah, Gobert, or Oladipo. For all those guys you don't hesitate to let Serge go this summer.

And then that summer is when you decide if the available players are worth losing Lowry and Norm. We'll know more about who Lowry and Norm will be at that point, you know, at that point. And we'll also know what players are available.

If we were talking about throwing assets away to clear cap room, I'd totally be with you on the hesitation to do that for the sake of hoping for free agency luck. But we aren't. We're talking about keeping all our assets, including all our best players, right up until we know whether that decision is worth it. We lose Serge, yes. A (very good) backup center. We potentially lose Lowry (great starting PG now but who knows at that point) and Norm (bench gunner looking for a raise that summer anyway). And then some fringe pieces. But all that except Serge happens when we know what the free agent market actually is. So if Giannis is there, great, we'll pitch Lowry on signing cheap for one year, but if we lose him, well, such is the cost of getting Giannis. If we decide at the time that Oladipo or Gobert is a better long term fit than Lowry, we're set. And if we decide at the time that Lowry and Powell are better options than playing on the market, we can keep them!

The cost of having all those options available to us is letting Serge walk this off-season. Literally the one real cost to this approach. Everyone else, if Fred gets a huge deal somewhere they weren't going to match that, it was always going to have to be reasonable, now we just have a number for reasonable. If Gasol goes back overseas, such is life. If Boucher was going to get poached, they were never likely to tie themselves to a decent sized contract for him before he really proved he could hang as a backup, never mind a starting C.

[GOLDBLUM]

Again. You plan for Giannis. Maybe it ends up being Kawhi? Or yeah, Gobert, or Oladipo. For all those guys you don't hesitate to let Serge go this summer.

And then that summer is when you decide if the available players are worth losing Lowry and Norm. We'll know more about who Lowry and Norm will be at that point, you know, at that point. And we'll also know what players are available.

If we were talking about throwing assets away to clear cap room, I'd totally be with you on the hesitation to do that for the sake of hoping for free agency luck. But we aren't. We're talking about keeping all our assets, including all our best players, right up until we know whether that decision is worth it. We lose Serge, yes. A (very good) backup center. We potentially lose Lowry (great starting PG now but who knows at that point) and Norm (bench gunner looking for a raise that summer anyway). And then some fringe pieces. But all that except Serge happens when we know what the free agent market actually is. So if Giannis is there, great, we'll pitch Lowry on signing cheap for one year, but if we lose him, well, such is the cost of getting Giannis. If we decide at the time that Oladipo or Gobert is a better long term fit than Lowry, we're set. And if we decide at the time that Lowry and Powell are better options than playing on the market, we can keep them!

The cost of having all those options available to us is letting Serge walk this off-season. Literally the one real cost to this approach. Everyone else, if Fred gets a huge deal somewhere they weren't going to match that, it was always going to have to be reasonable, now we just have a number for reasonable. If Gasol goes back overseas, such is life. If Boucher was going to get poached, they were never likely to tie themselves to a decent sized contract for him before he really proved he could hang as a backup, never mind a starting C.

Thanks for the well-reasoned, in-depth response. That all makes good sense.

The aim-high, long shots of Giannis and Kawhi are clear. (Hard to imagine Kawhi admitting defeat and coming back — but stranger things have happened.)

I’m personally not super confident that Oladipo would be able to provide the star play we’d be hoping for ... and Gobert’s offensive limitations concern me. But where their games are at will all look clearer closer to.

[DogeLover1234]

Its definitely very clean to line up all the contracts to expire at the same time, but I dont think that crucial, as long as there are teams with cap space available for trade partners or a sign and trade. im pretty okay with building around this core and trusting in making enough sound decisions on free agents, draft selections and trades that can replace Lowry by the time he declines. Maybe nobody steps in and you want to retool a bit you have some guys you can trade for prospects or draft picks.

[golden]

Its definitely very clean to line up all the contracts to expire at the same time, but I dont think that crucial, as long as there are teams with cap space available for trade partners or a sign and trade. im pretty okay with building around this core and trusting in making enough sound decisions on free agents, draft selections and trades that can replace Lowry by the time he declines. Maybe nobody steps in and you want to retool a bit you have some guys you can trade for prospects or draft picks.

Yep. As long as you have desirable players who aren’t on hard to move, overpaid contracts, then you can always do sign & trades. The Houston Rockets always seem to be in the conversation for top free agents, and they haven’t had cap space in ages.

That’s why Fred’s contract is going to be a double whammy. It messes up our 2021 cap space AND he is going to be way overpaid for what you could find on the market at his position.

Fred’s contact hurts both options.

[bertarapsfan]

Few guys im intrested in.
If the market isnt strong for them we could maybe bring them in on reasonable prove em type deals like biyombo.
1-Baynes, similar skillset to Gasol. Can pass and hit the 3.
2.Olynk-Similiar skill set to serge can hit the 3 and be a bench scorer offensively.
3.Dario Saric- Was pretty good in philly, dont know how phx feels about him and has been throw in to a few trades. Could maybe have a break out like bertans.
4.Torey Craig- Really good defender, Denver has will barton and grant in that position and may not want to tie up any more $ in a wing.
5. Micheal Beasley. Can be a good bench scorer, Maybe has too similar of skill set to T.D that we may be better off develping T.D but i always liked the guy

[OakTree]

Some decent bigs available in free agency: Aron Baynes, Kelly Olynyk, Meyers Leonard, Derrick Favors, Christian Wood, Harry Giles, Marcus Morris...
May be a good offseason to mix up the big rotation.

[DanH]

Yep. As long as you have desirable players who aren’t on hard to move, overpaid contracts, then you can always do sign & trades. The Houston Rockets always seem to be in the conversation for top free agents, and they haven’t had cap space in ages.

That’s why Fred’s contract is going to be a double whammy. It messes up our 2021 cap space AND he is going to be way overpaid for what you could find on the market at his position.

Fred’s contact hurts both options.

Well it only messes up our 2021 cap space if we don’t plan ahead and decide how much to give him based on that, which they will certainly be doing.

And teams should never plan to have to shed salary to fit a free agency signing. Even good contracts become hard to move once the league knows you have to move them. Well, not hard to move, teams will line up for the privilege of taking your draft picks off your hands.

[golden]

Well it only messes up our 2021 cap space if we don’t plan ahead and decide how much to give him based on that, which they will certainly be doing.

And teams should never plan to have to shed salary to fit a free agency signing. Even good contracts become hard to move once the league knows you have to move them. Well, not hard to move, teams will line up for the privilege of taking your draft picks off your hands.

In that case, the ideal 2021 planning ahead scenario for FVV would be a sign & trade, with the Raps getting back an expiring contract and a pick (e.g. to Dallas for THJ + future pick.... great fit for FVV).

A combination of Norm, TD & Matt Thomas should easily improve upon the production that Fred brings. The main argument for paying Fred a lot of money is the continuity and culture intangibles.

[DogeLover1234]

Well it only messes up our 2021 cap space if we don’t plan ahead and decide how much to give him based on that, which they will certainly be doing.

And teams should never plan to have to shed salary to fit a free agency signing. Even good contracts become hard to move once the league knows you have to move them. Well, not hard to move, teams will line up for the privilege of taking your draft picks off your hands.

Its definitely still worth it so long as the contract is good - seeing as you dont know if, when, or who this FA signing is. Id prefer not to punt my trade assets to put my eggs in the 2021 free agency basket. What if Philly blows up and Embiid/Simmons become available - or any other star? Maybe Giannis does decide to come here - enough teams have space that you have leverage and shouldnt trade the farm for cap space. Plus even if you have to trade assets, its worth it.

[DanH]

In that case, the ideal 2021 planning ahead scenario for FVV would be a sign & trade, with the Raps getting back an expiring contract and a pick (e.g. to Dallas for THJ + future pick.... great fit for FVV).

A combination of Norm, TD & Matt Thomas should easily improve upon the production that Fred brings. The main argument for paying Fred a lot of money is the continuity and culture intangibles.

How is that ideal 2021 planning? We want one (1) max cap slot. And otherwise to have as much talent on the team as possible to attract a FA. There’s no realistic way to reach 2 max slots, so having an extra 20M in cap room is of very little value.

Can anyone in that group defend the opponent’s best guard every night? There are two ends of the floor. I have my hopes for TD long term but for now he can barely stay on the floor.

[golden]

How is that ideal 2021 planning? We want one (1) max cap slot. And otherwise to have as much talent on the team as possible to attract a FA. There’s no realistic way to reach 2 max slots, so having an extra 20M in cap room is of very little value.

Can anyone in that group defend the opponent’s best guard every night? There are two ends of the floor. I have my hopes for TD long term but for now he can barely stay on the floor.

Meh. Regular season... maybe, but Fred's defense is vastly overrated and was exposed in the playoffs. Unless you hide Fred in a junk defense like a Box & 1, where he could be glued to Kemba, Fred was often a liability. He would get easily bumped off screens, or worse, he would get switched onto Tatum & Brown and they would just elevate and shoot right over him like he wasn't even there. And the Celtics eventually figured out how to exploit the Box & 1 for what it is.... a gimmick.

In the playoffs, you see how a so-called poor perimeter defender, like Jamal Murray, can be plus defender. And the Lakers supposedly lost their best perimeter defender and they're getting by with a combination of past-prime Danny Green, KCP, Caruso, and the corpse of Rondo.

In the playoffs, Fred's defense cannot make up for his inefficient offense.... other teams are too smart to even allow that to be a factor.

[DanH]

Meh. Regular season... maybe, but Fred's defense is vastly overrated and was exposed in the playoffs. Unless you hide Fred in a junk defense like a Box & 1, where he could be glued to Kemba, Fred was often a liability. He would get easily bumped off screens, or worse, he would get switched onto Tatum & Brown and they would just elevate and shoot right over him like he wasn't even there. And the Celtics eventually figured out how to exploit the Box & 1 for what it is.... a gimmick.

In the playoffs, you see how a so-called poor perimeter defender, like Jamal Murray, can be plus defender. And the Lakers supposedly lost their best perimeter defender and they're getting by with a combination of past-prime Danny Green, KCP, Caruso, and the corpse of Rondo.

In the playoffs, Fred's defense cannot make up for his inefficient offense.... other teams are too smart to even allow that to be a factor.

I agree that Fred, when overused on offence, is problematic. Unfortunately Pascal was a no show offensively so we were stuck with that.

I have to say I find your evaluation of Fred’s playoff defence baffling.

[Rudy Bargnani]

Fred literally guarded steph curry in the finals last year and did such a great job he got an NBA finals MVP vote.

[inthepaint]

In that case, the ideal 2021 planning ahead scenario for FVV would be a sign & trade, with the Raps getting back an expiring contract and a pick (e.g. to Dallas for THJ + future pick.... great fit for FVV).

A combination of Norm, TD & Matt Thomas should easily improve upon the production that Fred brings. The main argument for paying Fred a lot of money is the continuity and culture intangibles.

I know hindsight is 20/20 but man, can you image if 20% of the minutes from each of FVV/Marc/Siakam on that Boston series were alternately redistributed to Norm/TD/Thomas? Big stream of buckets would've turned the whole thing around. Alas, no sense in looking back. Makes you hopeful for the future though.

[golden]

Fred literally guarded steph curry in the finals last year and did such a great job he got an NBA finals MVP vote.

Steph put up 30/5/6 on .600 TS%. One of his best playoff series ever. And he did that a lot on his own. Yeah, great job.