Everything Off Season

[golden]

Again, none of those players can do what Fred does, certainly none of them have proven to be able to. The weaknesses you criticize Fred for are currently very present in every one of their games - which of those three are you handing the ball to create offence? - and not one of those players is yet half the defender Fred is.

Let's take it up a few thousand feet and look at the bottom line.

All of those things that Fred does better than Powell should translate into wins or net rating, right? You said you only care about results, right?

Powell as a starter
Team record: 20-6. Win %: .770
Net rating: 4.8

FVV as a starter
Team record: 40-14. Win %: .740
Net rating: 5.1

It's basically a dead heat. Powell can easily replace FVV as a starter. And when Powell was starting, he was just getting better and better.... there is still upside there. Whereas we can see that Fred is pretty much over his head, or like you said, being used "improperly" when asked to do simple things that other shooting guards in the league can easily do (like finish at the rim).

We can let Fred walk and hopefully get back some assets (cap space & picks) in a S&T that could be used to swing deals in 2021. We can get a veteran PG on a 1-year contract along with TD, McCaw and Thomas, to share the backup at the PG/SG spot.

[DanH]

Let's take it up a few thousand feet and look at the bottom line.

All of those things that Fred better than Powell does should translate into wins or net rating, right? You said you only care about results, right?

Powell as a starter
Team record: 20-6. Win %: .770
Net rating: 4.8

FVV as a starter
Team record: 40-14. Win %: .740
Net rating: 5.1

It's basically a dead heat. Powell can easily replace FVV as a starter. And when Powell was starting, he was just getting better and better.... there is still upside there. Whereas we can see that Fred is pretty much over his head, or like you said, being used "improperly" when asked to do simple things that other shooting guards in the league can easily do (like finish at the rim).

We can let Fred walk and hopefully get back some assets (cap space & picks) in a S&T that could be used to swing deals in 2021. We can get a veteran PG on a 1-year contract along with TD, McCaw and Thomas, to share the backup at the PG/SG spot.

How much are you planning on paying Powell in summer 2021? We letting him walk too?

Look, if you want to make the argument that we should let Fred walk so we can pay Lowry in summer 2021, that's an argument I can understand. Otherwise, really having a hard time.

[planetmars]

The thing to really watch out for is that Fred's new contract could squeeze Lowry out of a Raptor uniform by 2021. We're all assuming Kyle will be fine taking a below market deal to stay with the Raptors.. but we're also forgetting who we are talking about here. His best friend was shipped out of Toronto in a trade. He's going to look out for himself.

And personally I would rather have Kyle on this team in 2021 than Fred.. despite being 8 years older. It's the difference between having Paul on a team versus Westbrook. I'm not saying Fred is Russ.. but Paul was so much better and was a calming influence on that OKC roster, and was putting up crazy productive numbers.

Give Kyle Fred's $20M in 2021, and we'll have a better team. If we don't get a max guy, maybe we rebuild when Kyle naturally retires. But I don't want to lose Kyle because we overpaid to keep Fred.

[DanH]

Also:

Lowry starting: 41-17
Lowry not playing: 12-2

Guess we should just toss Lowry aside, surely his absence would show up in the win and loss column if he was of any value...

[DanH]

The thing to really watch out for is that Fred's new contract could squeeze Lowry out of a Raptor uniform by 2021. We're all assuming Kyle will be fine taking a below market deal to stay with the Raptors.. but we're also forgetting who we are talking about here. His best friend was shipped out of Toronto in a trade. He's going to look out for himself.

And personally I would rather have Kyle on this team in 2021 than Fred.. despite being 8 years older. It's the difference between having Paul on a team versus Westbrook. I'm not saying Fred is Russ.. but Paul was so much better and was a calming influence on that OKC roster, and was putting up crazy productive numbers.

Give Kyle Fred's $20M in 2021, and we'll have a better team. If we don't get a max guy, maybe we rebuild when Kyle naturally retires. But I don't want to lose Kyle because we overpaid to keep Fred.

Yep. This is the one argument for letting Fred walk at his likely 20M market value I can understand. Really means you are betting it all on landing a free agent in 2021 though. If you strike out in 2021 free agency you have Lowry and Norm but Fred is gone. Whereas you keep Fred now and try to pitch Lowry on staying cheap, but then you miss out on the big name FA, you can still throw money at Lowry and have both Fred and Lowry here with Pascal and OG as your backup plan.

There's plenty to be said for planning to succeed and not to fail, but there's a lot to be said for safety nets as well.

[planetmars]

Let's take it up a few thousand feet and look at the bottom line.

All of those things that Fred does better than Powell should translate into wins or net rating, right? You said you only care about results, right?

Powell as a starter
Team record: 20-6. Win %: .770
Net rating: 4.8

FVV as a starter
Team record: 40-14. Win %: .740
Net rating: 5.1

It's basically a dead heat. Powell can easily replace FVV as a starter. And when Powell was starting, he was just getting better and better.... there is still upside there. Whereas we can see that Fred is pretty much over his head, or like you said, being used "improperly" when asked to do simple things that other shooting guards in the league can easily do (like finish at the rim).

We can let Fred walk and hopefully get back some assets (cap space & picks) in a S&T that could be used to swing deals in 2021. We can get a veteran PG on a 1-year contract along with TD, McCaw and Thomas, to share the backup at the PG/SG spot.

I think a better way to show the net rating would be to compare who they played with since we had so many injuries. Let's make Lowry, Siakam, OG the constants.

Norm with those 3 and Marc: 13.4 Net Rating in 111 minutes
Norm with those 3 and Serge: -0.4 Net Rating in 120 minutes

Fred with those 3 and Marc: 12.9 Net Rating in 361 minutes
Fred with those 3 and Serge: -3.8 Net Rating in 210 minutes

The point still stands. Norm was just as good as Fred. Now maybe the numbers adjust with different competition and more minutes since Norm can be pretty inconsistent.. or at least was at the beginning of the year.

[planetmars]

Yep. This is the one argument for letting Fred walk at his likely 20M market value I can understand. Really means you are betting it all on landing a free agent in 2021 though. If you strike out in 2021 free agency you have Lowry and Norm but Fred is gone. Whereas you keep Fred now and try to pitch Lowry on staying cheap, but then you miss out on the big name FA, you can still throw money at Lowry and have both Fred and Lowry here with Pascal and OG as your backup plan.

There's plenty to be said for planning to succeed and not to fail, but there's a lot to be said for safety nets as well.

The only free agents worthy of losing Lowry are Giannis and Kawhi.. and even then I'd prefer to have Kyle with those two then without. I think I'm okay losing Fred for that chance though since we all know Masai is going for it. He's been eyeing 2021 for a long time.

[golden]

Also:

Lowry starting: 41-17
Lowry not playing: 12-2

Guess we should just toss Lowry aside, surely his absence would show up in the win and loss column if he was of any value...

What planetmars said. Point stands.

[golden]

The only free agents worthy of losing Lowry are Giannis and Kawhi.. and even then I'd prefer to have Kyle with those two then without. I think I'm okay losing Fred for that chance though since we all know Masai is going for it. He's been eyeing 2021 for a long time.

I think at this point, we have to view Lowry as our franchise's version of Dirk. As long as he can play and wants to be here - you work out some longer term, cap friendly handshake arrangement and keep putting pieces around him until the wheels fall off. If that means Fred is gone (I won't be able to sleep at night), then so be it. Squeezing more years out of Lowry, developing Pascal, and acquiring an elite player are our top 3 priorities. That's our future big 3.

[planetmars]

I think at this point, we have to view Lowry as our franchise's version of Dirk. As long as he can play and wants to be here - you work out some longer term, cap friendly handshake arrangement and keep putting pieces around him until the wheels fall off. If that means Fred is gone (I won't be able to sleep at night), then so be it. Squeezing more years out of Lowry, developing Pascal, and acquiring an elite player are our top 3 priorities. That's our future big 3.

Dirk was making $25M in 2016. He took $5M in 2017 and 2018. He was 39 and 40 those years.

I think Kyle will want at least $20M until he gets to the age of 38-39. He's not going to take those $5M contracts starting in 2021. He's "only 34" but was an all-star. And had a great playoff run.

Even Tim Duncan was making about $10M a year from ages 34-37. He made $5M in his last two seasons (ages 38 and 39).

I don't believe we can't afford Kyle at $10M if we're looking at Giannis in 2021.

[G__Deane]

Yep. This is the one argument for letting Fred walk at his likely 20M market value I can understand. Really means you are betting it all on landing a free agent in 2021 though. If you strike out in 2021 free agency you have Lowry and Norm but Fred is gone. Whereas you keep Fred now and try to pitch Lowry on staying cheap, but then you miss out on the big name FA, you can still throw money at Lowry and have both Fred and Lowry here with Pascal and OG as your backup plan.

There's plenty to be said for planning to succeed and not to fail, but there's a lot to be said for safety nets as well.

A lot of this discussion sounds like "yah we struck out on a major free agent but we can afford to pay the same crew more money to be decent and flame out in the second round again"

Not enough guys here seem to want to get better. Didn't any of you get MORE hungry after the chip?

[DanH]

I wonder if the Raps look to use their available salary this summer to try to extract Poeltl from the Spurs?

They can use their MLE to offer him a 2 year deal at about 10M, with the 2nd year unguaranteed. Or if they do let Fred go to too hot a market, they will suddenly potentially have about 15-20M in cap room, which could make for a big offer (again, 2 years, 2nd unguaranteed).

They would still be in tough to keep him if they land a star FA (though it would be an option, could weigh keeping him versus Lowry depending on contract demands).

[Rudy Bargnani]

A lot of this discussion sounds like "yah we struck out on a major free agent but we can afford to pay the same crew more money to be decent and flame out in the second round again"

Not enough guys here seem to want to get better. Didn't any of you get MORE hungry after the chip?

What do you think the approach should be? You talking tanking?

[MixxAOR]

A lot of this discussion sounds like "yah we struck out on a major free agent but we can afford to pay the same crew more money to be decent and flame out in the second round again"

Not enough guys here seem to want to get better. Didn't any of you get MORE hungry after the chip?

I think hunger should not be mistaken with impatience. Making moves because you want to get back up there quickly is how you fuck up

[DanH]

A lot of this discussion sounds like "yah we struck out on a major free agent but we can afford to pay the same crew more money to be decent and flame out in the second round again"

Not enough guys here seem to want to get better. Didn't any of you get MORE hungry after the chip?

Well, I think everyone has been pretty clear on wanting to land the max FA. But if you miss out, the best way to position yourself to be able to acquire a star through trade is to keep as much talent on the roster (and therefore trading block) as possible.