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  • DanH
    replied
    Jclaw wrote: View Post
    Interesting point noted in a few places that no (eligible) player has ever turned down a super max offer. They just take it and ask for a trade later. So I guess we can hold of on the "What now?!" posts when the inevitable happens. Or it doesn't but that would be super weird.
    I think that's not true? AD and Kawhi were both supermax eligible and forced their way off their respective teams instead. And I think all the players that have signed it are still with their teams, except Russ, and I don't think he forced his way out so much as OKC instantly regretted giving it to him. There are at least pretty solid rumours around Harden, so there is that. But he seems to be the first real such case.

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  • Jclaw
    replied
    Interesting point noted in a few places that no (eligible) player has ever turned down a super max offer. They just take it and ask for a trade later. So I guess we can hold of on the "What now?!" posts when the inevitable happens. Or it doesn't but that would be super weird.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Demographic Shift wrote: View Post


    If for whatever reason the Alphabet and his agent were adamant they wanted a trade to the Raptors to happen now or he would walk for nothing at the end of this season and go to Toronto anyway then the hypothetical ask of OG to be included in the deal would be an easy one for the GM I believe.
    We did trade Mr. Raptor in Demar and a 9th overall in Poetel and a first for Leonard for what turned out to be a rental.
    I can;t see why the current FO would balk at doing it again for a player of the Alphabets caliber.
    What if the ask was just for Stanley Johnson? That's an easy yes.

    What if the ask was OG, Pascal, FVV and Lowry? Easy no, right?

    So the question becomes one of leverage. What value is keeping Lowry to the team, because that is essentially the impact of doing the trade or not. Does this Raptors team trade OG to keep Lowry? I don't think they do.

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  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    Ebonhawke wrote: View Post

    Because the situation is completely different than Kawhi

    With Kawhi, you had a disgruntled star who wanted out of town, who wasn't a large presence in the community, and had sat out most of the previous season with injury - meaning the team/fans had gotten used to him not being on the court, and it's an easier 'sell' by management that anything you got in return for Kawhi was better than the likely zero return when he walked in free agency.

    ***OK... but what does being a pillar of the community have to do with trading OG as part of a hypothetical deal to land Giannas in a trade now ??? Poeole leave cities and jobs all the time.


    With Giannis, you have the reigning MVP of the league, who's still demonstrating year-over-year improvement. You also have a team that has committed multiple transactions in the off-season to try to tailor their team to address adjustments that are being made by other teams to try to deal with his skillset. The return in any trade for Giannis will dwarf what was given to Kawhi - and likely will require multiple impact players, because Milwaukee fans aren't going to settle for future first round picks as the return - no matter how many. Therefore, the chances of attaining a title are diminished, because the Raptors will have had to ship out a lot of the surrounding pieces for Giannis.

    *** Or not... When an all NBA player wants to be traded and forces the hand of the team rarely if ever does equal value go back.. because the risk is the player leaves for nothing in the next year. ***

    For at least the start of the 2021 season, the Raptors will be playing home games in Tampa - how do you 'sell' Giannis on living in Toronto, if he hasn't spent any time living in the city? If there are no fans in the stands if, and when, the Raptors do return to Toronto, how do you sell him on a city/fanbase that he doesn't get to experience.

    *** If he forces a trade to Toronto, because Milwuakee is not going to do this on their own volition, then he has already thought this through would he not ?

    Finally, in January 2021, you will have a new political administration in the US, who has signaled that they will take a much more aggressive action with regards to COVID-19 than the current administration - what that means for sporting and recreation events at this point is unknown - but not hard to imagine that *something* might happen that will impact the season - so the Raptors might not even get a full season of Giannis

    **** Not to discount what a new administration in the Great Republic will do or not do it hard to see this as a material factor in this Hypothetical trade

    If for whatever reason the Alphabet and his agent were adamant they wanted a trade to the Raptors to happen now or he would walk for nothing at the end of this season and go to Toronto anyway then the hypothetical ask of OG to be included in the deal would be an easy one for the GM I believe.
    We did trade Mr. Raptor in Demar and a 9th overall in Poetel and a first for Leonard for what turned out to be a rental.
    I can;t see why the current FO would balk at doing it again for a player of the Alphabets caliber.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sat Nov 28, 2020, 09:43 PM.

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  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    Kagemusha wrote: View Post

    Do you seriously equate Giannis with Kawhi?
    That wasn't the question.
    The Hawk said he wouldn't trade OG Annunoby for one year of the Alphabet.
    I said I would and asked the Hawk why he wouldn't do it because the last time we trade two guys for one year of Kawhaii Leonard it worked out pretty well.

    They are both pretty good .. no ?
    .

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Dr Hannibal Lecter wrote: View Post
    Looks like they just picked Davis contract, yikes, will c where this goes. Innocent until proven guilty I guess, but yeah..honestly I dont know about this.
    There's no "picking up" his contract. He is under contract. They have the ability to waive him anytime. And if they do so by tomorrow, they get off his salary, but they can still do so Monday, just having to pay him.

    They were never going to rush a decision to save a minimum salary. If they waive him tomorrow it means they gathered enough info to decide that was the right move, if not they could still be gathering info or could have already decided to trade him or could have already decided they will be keeping him. We don't know.

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  • Dr Hannibal Lecter
    replied
    Looks like they just picked Davis contract, yikes, will c where this goes. Innocent until proven guilty I guess, but yeah..honestly I dont know about this.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jclaw
    replied
    Ebonhawke wrote: View Post

    Because the situation is completely different than Kawhi

    With Kawhi, ......... - how do you 'sell' Giannis on living in Toronto, if he hasn't spent any time living in the city? If there are no fans in the stands if, and when, the Raptors do return to Toronto, how do you sell him on a city/fanbase that he doesn't get to experience...
    He currently lives in Milwaukee. There. That's the sale.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Certainly for defence I would lean exclusively on impact numbers and maybe some hustle stats to evaluate how active a player is. Box score really doesn't capture defence at all.

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  • DanH
    replied
    Quirk wrote: View Post

    Thanks, so what do you make of the completely different picture painted of Rivers? Is he a terrific offensive player with terrible defense, as PIPM indicates, or a horrible offensive player, who is just pretty bad on defense, as BPM shows. or, as production stats suggest, is just pretty bad across the board?

    The differences are not just quantitative, but say conflicting things, since he can't be both a great and a terrible offensive player.

    What's your take on how to read this?

    Why would a stats guy like Morey bring this player to Houston?
    I don't think it's as simple as being great or terrible. Production stats tell us he is pretty bad at putting up individual numbers, so it's no surprise that BPM assumes he would not have a great impact offensively.

    PIPM is clearly seeing a significant plus minus impact to be out weighing those production priors, meaning that he very likely does small things to help out a team that don't show up in the box score.

    Still wouldn't call him a great offensive player (you'd at least want to look at longer term trends, like what his OPIPM was like for the last few seasons to see if maybe this is a small sample variation - even quickly stabilizing plus-minus stats can be victims of that), but you could probably make the case that in the right role he can make a positive difference on offence. That role will be key though, as his production numbers show he won't be able to generate offence on his own.

    In Houston I imagine he'll be asked to do only little things, given the structure of their offence. So it might work out. But to have a good grasp on the role he seems to have succeeded in I'd need to have watched him some and I haven't really.

    Leave a comment:


  • NeedTristanThompson
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    The real reason the Raptors don’t give up OG in a Giannis trade is if he really wants to come here (and him already deciding he’s leaving is the only way the Bucks trade him) they can just sign him in the summer.
    Hm but u kno so then why did LBJ rush the AD thing? Was it bcz he wanted to win a championship ASAP or was it cap reasons?

    Bcz u kno, KLOE is amazing but he will age out someday, just like LBJ did. There might be case for rushing a championship shot, bcz we don't kno FVV will ever be quite as good

    #KLOE20211111
    #GIANNIS20200000000
    #KAWHIIII202111111

    Kagemusha wrote: View Post

    Do you seriously equate Giannis with Kawhi?
    Why would u not???

    I sure do!

    #GIANNIS2021111111111
    #KAWHIIIII20211111111111111

    Leave a comment:


  • Quirk
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post

    The reason BPM differs so radically from basically all other impact stats is that it is not an impact stat.

    Most impact stats correlate box scores to RAPM to see what box score stats tend to predict a player has positive offensive and defensive impact, on average, then use each player’s small sample box score numbers to create priors for them, to use in the regression that generates the impact number like RPM. PIPM goes a step further and includes luck factors (ie if you are on the court while Marcus Smart goes 5/5 from three it’s not really your fault), which helps it stabilize faster. BPM stops after the box score correlation and applies it directly to the box score stats for each player, and runs no plus minus data regression at all. It’s meant purely as a way to try to compare to players and seasons from before detailed tracking data was available. Its average relationship to RAPM and APM is decent, but for each single player there are huge variations. It’s a largely useless stat except for its use historically. Any of the other new age impact stats are miles more useful.
    Thanks, so what do you make of the completely different picture painted of Rivers? Is he a terrific offensive player with terrible defense, as PIPM indicates, or a horrible offensive player, who is just pretty bad on defense, as BPM shows. or, as production stats suggest, is just pretty bad across the board?

    The differences are not just quantitative, but say conflicting things, since he can't be both a great and a terrible offensive player.

    What's your take on how to read this?

    Why would a stats guy like Morey bring this player to Houston?

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    The real reason the Raptors don’t give up OG in a Giannis trade is if he really wants to come here (and him already deciding he’s leaving is the only way the Bucks trade him) they can just sign him in the summer.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Quirk wrote: View Post
    Knicks get Austin Rivers? Question for DanH, PIPM has Rivers as really good offensively, horrible defensively. BPM has him as horrible offensively, and just kinda bad defensively. How could these two impact stats have such radically opposing view on this player? Production stats seem to show that he started off historically bad, and now is just bad.

    What's is your take on this? Asking to better understand the differences in these stats.
    The reason BPM differs so radically from basically all other impact stats is that it is not an impact stat.

    Most impact stats correlate box scores to RAPM to see what box score stats tend to predict a player has positive offensive and defensive impact, on average, then use each player’s small sample box score numbers to create priors for them, to use in the regression that generates the impact number like RPM. PIPM goes a step further and includes luck factors (ie if you are on the court while Marcus Smart goes 5/5 from three it’s not really your fault), which helps it stabilize faster. BPM stops after the box score correlation and applies it directly to the box score stats for each player, and runs no plus minus data regression at all. It’s meant purely as a way to try to compare to players and seasons from before detailed tracking data was available. Its average relationship to RAPM and APM is decent, but for each single player there are huge variations. It’s a largely useless stat except for its use historically. Any of the other new age impact stats are miles more useful.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ebonhawke
    replied
    Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

    Well the last time we rolled the dice in the same situation with a guy named Leonard we did OK...
    I would do it again 100 times out of 99.
    Why the hesitation ?
    Because the situation is completely different than Kawhi

    With Kawhi, you had a disgruntled star who wanted out of town, who wasn't a large presence in the community, and had sat out most of the previous season with injury - meaning the team/fans had gotten used to him not being on the court, and it's an easier 'sell' by management that anything you got in return for Kawhi was better than the likely zero return when he walked in free agency.

    With Giannis, you have the reigning MVP of the league, who's still demonstrating year-over-year improvement. You also have a team that has committed multiple transactions in the off-season to try to tailor their team to address adjustments that are being made by other teams to try to deal with his skillset. The return in any trade for Giannis will dwarf what was given to Kawhi - and likely will require multiple impact players, because Milwaukee fans aren't going to settle for future first round picks as the return - no matter how many. Therefore, the chances of attaining a title are diminished, because the Raptors will have had to ship out a lot of the surrounding pieces for Giannis.

    For at least the start of the 2021 season, the Raptors will be playing home games in Tampa - how do you 'sell' Giannis on living in Toronto, if he hasn't spent any time living in the city? If there are no fans in the stands if, and when, the Raptors do return to Toronto, how do you sell him on a city/fanbase that he doesn't get to experience.

    Finally, in January 2021, you will have a new political administration in the US, who has signaled that they will take a much more aggressive action with regards to COVID-19 than the current administration - what that means for sporting and recreation events at this point is unknown - but not hard to imagine that *something* might happen that will impact the season - so the Raptors might not even get a full season of Giannis

    Leave a comment:

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