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  • #46
    Scraptor wrote: View Post

    This is selection bias... you can't give Gasol a share of the credit for the wins and then handwave away his performance in the losses. Though I agree that Marc vs Serge wasn't the biggest factor on its own, it was a combination of Marc, Pascal, and Fred.

    As bad as Pascal was, if we are going to use +/-, he was still a +4.7 in Netratg, second on the team. Kyle was first among the main guys with a +16.7.

    Serge and Marc were relatively close at -4.5 and -5.2. OG at -5.9, Norm at -9.9.

    Fred was a team worst -16.5. You might think, well the numbers are noisy because he was only off for 49 minutes, but Kyle and Pascal were only off 52 and 61 minutes.

    Fred had an atrocious 46% TS on the highest usage on the team. He wasted A LOT of possessions, and I think that is getting overlooked because he hit some big shots too.
    Oh, I agree, Fred, one if our best shooters, not being able to hit the ocean from a boat absolutely killed us. As did him having to create too much offence (which stemmed from a tired overworked Lowry and an offensively absent Pascal). Fred needs to be a tertiary option on offence, working off the ball more often than not and keeping his initiation of sets to the ones that don’t require him to attack. Running him as a pick and roll creator is a disaster waiting to happen, but with the other creators worn down or useless they were kind of stuck. I’d have preferred to see Gasol used better, leave him to pass from the high post rather than as a screener at the top of the arc and you keep Fred off the ball more and also reduce the amount a defence can sag off him or dare him to score.

    Now, the on-off splits are indeed noisy because of the small samples (both for Fred’s negative and also Lowry’s positive), but it’s no surprise that when Fred had to create offence by himself with bench units it fell apart, so I think they are adequately descriptive here.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #47
      LJ2 wrote: View Post
      Just an after thought, but is Giannis still plan A? 2 years in a row he gets walled off from entering the paint and his team falls apart in the playoffs. What's the counter the Raptors are capable of which the Bucks....already a team built around Giannis, were not capable of?
      He's still plan A by a longshot. Let's see what Nurse and the coaching staff could do with him.

      But if he comes here for 4-5 years, the decision will be made to play with Siakam, FVV and OG because Serge, Marc and yes Kyle will be gone in that period. I don't expect Kyle to be our lead PG even in 2 years or we're likely a middling team.

      The decision to come here will be based on Siakam, FVV (signing here) and OG PLUS hopefully whatever 2B player they bring in for next season to effectively infiltrate the starters.

      If the cap situation really means that we just try and bring Fred back, pay less for Marc on a 1 year deal, bring Serge back on a reasonable deal and shuffle the deck on the bench, this is a 4-6 team and easy post season out in the East next season and even less attractive to an elite FA than normal.

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      • #48
        I would have loved a Beale or Jimmy Buckets to have chosen to come here, we'd be in the ECF again right now.
        One thing that's never raised here is now nice our team is. Nobody but Serge has any sandpaper except sometimes Kyle and he's more sneer than snarl. I wouldn't mind another player that other team's hate to play against. We all recognize them on other teams but not on our own .... somehow in all these salary cap issues, I really feel Masai has to pull a rabbit out of the hat and land a 2B player in order to stay competitive and bring in the big fish a year from now. It would be nice if he had some competitive attitude too....

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        • #49
          DanH wrote: View Post

          Oh, I agree, Fred, one if our best shooters, not being able to hit the ocean from a boat absolutely killed us. As did him having to create too much offence (which stemmed from a tired overworked Lowry and an offensively absent Pascal). Fred needs to be a tertiary option on offence, working off the ball more often than not and keeping his initiation of sets to the ones that don’t require him to attack. Running him as a pick and roll creator is a disaster waiting to happen, but with the other creators worn down or useless they were kind of stuck. I’d have preferred to see Gasol used better, leave him to pass from the high post rather than as a screener at the top of the arc and you keep Fred off the ball more and also reduce the amount a defence can sag off him or dare him to score.

          Now, the on-off splits are indeed noisy because of the small samples (both for Fred’s negative and also Lowry’s positive), but it’s no surprise that when Fred had to create offence by himself with bench units it fell apart, so I think they are adequately descriptive here.
          You have to admit that you took a big L in the Gasol vs. Ibaka and FVV vs. Powell debates. Now you're grasping at straws (fatigue & role) to explain it. Sadly, along with Pascal.... Nurse's unwavering loyalty and faith in all 3 of those guys is what ultimately sunk the team in this series.

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          • #50
            worth noting that this is really Masai's first chance to build his own team. I mean he did with the championship team but this is a different situation. Not inheriting a coach and the Demar/Kyle pair. Not preserving a roster for a title defense run. No expectations. Just tinker and build to get us there again. Should be interesting

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            • #51
              80% of Fred's jumpshots this season were assisted, 20% unassisted.

              Vs. Boston, that dropped to 60% assisted and 40% unassisted on decreased efficiency. For some reason vs. Boston, Fred stopped being an off ball threat and decided he needed to be DeMar DeRozan's Mini Me. His EFG%, TS%, and ORTG all dropped significantly while his shot attempts spiked from 14 to 19 FGA. Less ball movement, more hero ball, it got us one more PPG out of Fred and a lot more lost offensive possessions.

              Frustrating thing - guys other than Fred were shooting it well vs Boston but not getting those attempts Fred was now gobbling up. Some 3P% vs. Boston from guys who didn't get the ball enough: Ibaka 48%, OG 46%, Powell 40%, Thomas 38%. Those losses where the Raptors shot <30% from deep didn't need to happen. Especially strange that a team that moved the ball well and used its depth all season, and always identified hot hands and good matchups, went so far away from that in the Boston series. Too much iso/hero ball. Too much ignoring guys who were shooting well to keep running the same plays - low quality FVV shots off the dribble, Siakam post ups and iso's that weren't working (Siakam vs. Brown was never a mismatch, no idea why they kept trying to hit it for 7 games).

              Good guys, great year, no huge regrets other than this lingering sense of a missed opportunity. If you could ever make a run without a 1A star on the roster, this postseason was a rare opportunity to do it. I'm also not sure of FVV moving forward. With his next big contract, does he keep moving in this unhelpful "I'm the hero" direction, or does he learn from this and make better decisions in the future? Because we've had multiple series the last two postseasons where Fred really got stopped, I don't like that he's responding to hitting the wall with this Empty the clip mentality.
              "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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              • #52
                G__Deane wrote: View Post

                He's still plan A by a longshot. Let's see what Nurse and the coaching staff could do with him.

                But if he comes here for 4-5 years, the decision will be made to play with Siakam, FVV and OG because Serge, Marc and yes Kyle will be gone in that period. I don't expect Kyle to be our lead PG even in 2 years or we're likely a middling team.

                The decision to come here will be based on Siakam, FVV (signing here) and OG PLUS hopefully whatever 2B player they bring in for next season to effectively infiltrate the starters.

                If the cap situation really means that we just try and bring Fred back, pay less for Marc on a 1 year deal, bring Serge back on a reasonable deal and shuffle the deck on the bench, this is a 4-6 team and easy post season out in the East next season and even less attractive to an elite FA than normal.
                Any 2B player making more than the minimum will likely need to be added after a Giannis, not before, otherwise they eat into the cap room needed to add Giannis in the first place.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • #53
                  S.R. wrote: View Post
                  80% of Fred's jumpshots this season were assisted, 20% unassisted.

                  Vs. Boston, that dropped to 60% assisted and 40% unassisted on decreased efficiency. For some reason vs. Boston, Fred stopped being an off ball threat and decided he needed to be DeMar DeRozan's Mini Me. His EFG%, TS%, and ORTG all dropped significantly while his shot attempts spiked from 14 to 19 FGA. Less ball movement, more hero ball, it got us one more PPG out of Fred and a lot more lost offensive possessions.

                  Frustrating thing - guys other than Fred were shooting it well vs Boston but not getting those attempts Fred was now gobbling up. Some 3P% vs. Boston from guys who didn't get the ball enough: Ibaka 48%, OG 46%, Powell 40%, Thomas 38%. Those losses where the Raptors shot <30% from deep didn't need to happen. Especially strange that a team that moved the ball well and used its depth all season, and always identified hot hands and good matchups, went so far away from that in the Boston series. Too much iso/hero ball. Too much ignoring guys who were shooting well to keep running the same plays - low quality FVV shots off the dribble, Siakam post ups and iso's that weren't working (Siakam vs. Brown was never a mismatch, no idea why they kept trying to hit it for 7 games).

                  Good guys, great year, no huge regrets other than this lingering sense of a missed opportunity. If you could ever make a run without a 1A star on the roster, this postseason was a rare opportunity to do it. I'm also not sure of FVV moving forward. With his next big contract, does he keep moving in this unhelpful "I'm the hero" direction, or does he learn from this and make better decisions in the future? Because we've had multiple series the last two postseasons where Fred really got stopped, I don't like that he's responding to hitting the wall with this Empty the clip mentality.
                  That's what happens when you receive an unconditional, all-you-can-eat VIP card from the coach. Fred made so many rookie mistakes that would have had Terrence Davis riding the pine. Oh wait.... Terrence Davis didn't even get a chance. I wonder what the bench guys are thinking?

                  I'm really surprised that in a gritty series decided by hustle plays, we didn't even use Hustle-Jefferson. You can't tell me that RHJ, who can switch all 5 positions, wouldn't have made a difference checking Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. And, if for nothing else, rebounding a few of those Pascal/FVV bricks for easy put-backs (the highest efficiency offense there is).

                  I don't want to hear any BS about Gasol helping to spread the floor, because he made it 100X harder for everyone else on offense because the defense knew exactly where the ball was going, as soon as it touched his hands. Those touch swing passes look so pretty, though.

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                  • #54
                    golden wrote: View Post

                    You have to admit that you took a big L in the Gasol vs. Ibaka and FVV vs. Powell debates. Now you're grasping at straws (fatigue & role) to explain it. Sadly, along with Pascal.... Nurse's unwavering loyalty and faith in all 3 of those guys is what ultimately sunk the team in this series.
                    I mean, I can see why you would want to frame it that way and that’s your prerogative. But as poorly as the game 7 results went, I don’t think swapping Serge and Marc changes a thing.

                    Powell was a disaster in this series, more so than FVV. He hit some shots in a few games but gave back most of that on the other end. If he was being handed the ball to create offence the same way Fred was you’d be even worse off, as the offence would die along with the defence.

                    You can argue that if they did things differently, they win game 7. Certainly possible. And I can’t disprove it. But I would counter that without Gasol starting, they lose games 3 and 4 and 6 ( if they got there). Again, I can’t prove it. So assign me the L if you like. I don’t much care. I just wanted the Raps to win, and they didn’t, so I don’t have any stakes in the discussion at this point. Mostly I was just mad Gasol and FVV played (offence) poorly enough for it to be a discussion, because as ever if the Raptors were going to have to rely on Serge or Powell down the stretch it was going to end poorly.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • #55
                      My Offseason Plan

                      1) Resign Fred VanVleet to something like what Lowry got back when his first contract got expired as a Raptors, something like 3 year 50 million+

                      2) Resign Serge Ibaka to something like 2 year 20 million and extend Marc Gasol to one year deal

                      3) Trade Norman Powell + Patrick McCaw + 2020 (1st round pick) to Indiana for Victor Oladipo

                      4) Trade Pascal Siakam to GSW for Andrew Wiggins + 2020 (1st round pick)

                      5) Draft James Wiseman

                      6) Sign a bunch of FAs

                      Roster
                      Lowry/FVV/FAs
                      Oladipo/FAs/FAs
                      Wiggins/FAs/FAs
                      Ibaka/FAs/FAs
                      Wiseman/Gasol/FAs

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                      • #56
                        tenforthewin wrote: View Post
                        My Offseason Plan

                        1) Resign Fred VanVleet to something like what Lowry got back when his first contract got expired as a Raptors, something like 3 year 50 million+

                        2) Resign Serge Ibaka to something like 2 year 20 million and extend Marc Gasol to one year deal

                        3) Trade Norman Powell + Patrick McCaw + 2020 (1st round pick) to Indiana for Victor Oladipo

                        4) Trade Pascal Siakam to GSW for Andrew Wiggins + 2020 (1st round pick)

                        5) Draft James Wiseman

                        6) Sign a bunch of FAs

                        Roster
                        Lowry/FVV/FAs
                        Oladipo/FAs/FAs
                        Wiggins/FAs/FAs
                        Ibaka/FAs/FAs
                        Wiseman/Gasol/FAs
                        I actually like the first 3 steps. Then it goes off the rails

                        Plan # 6 "sign a bunch of dudes". That bench is stacked with player to be named laters!
                        It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                        • #57
                          S.R. wrote: View Post
                          80% of Fred's jumpshots this season were assisted, 20% unassisted.

                          Vs. Boston, that dropped to 60% assisted and 40% unassisted on decreased efficiency. For some reason vs. Boston, Fred stopped being an off ball threat and decided he needed to be DeMar DeRozan's Mini Me. His EFG%, TS%, and ORTG all dropped significantly while his shot attempts spiked from 14 to 19 FGA. Less ball movement, more hero ball, it got us one more PPG out of Fred and a lot more lost offensive possessions.

                          Frustrating thing - guys other than Fred were shooting it well vs Boston but not getting those attempts Fred was now gobbling up. Some 3P% vs. Boston from guys who didn't get the ball enough: Ibaka 48%, OG 46%, Powell 40%, Thomas 38%. Those losses where the Raptors shot <30% from deep didn't need to happen. Especially strange that a team that moved the ball well and used its depth all season, and always identified hot hands and good matchups, went so far away from that in the Boston series. Too much iso/hero ball. Too much ignoring guys who were shooting well to keep running the same plays - low quality FVV shots off the dribble, Siakam post ups and iso's that weren't working (Siakam vs. Brown was never a mismatch, no idea why they kept trying to hit it for 7 games).

                          Good guys, great year, no huge regrets other than this lingering sense of a missed opportunity. If you could ever make a run without a 1A star on the roster, this postseason was a rare opportunity to do it. I'm also not sure of FVV moving forward. With his next big contract, does he keep moving in this unhelpful "I'm the hero" direction, or does he learn from this and make better decisions in the future? Because we've had multiple series the last two postseasons where Fred really got stopped, I don't like that he's responding to hitting the wall with this Empty the clip mentality.
                          I think a couple things happened in the Celtics series.

                          First, Raps starting hunting down matchups with Kemba which made sense but sometimes when you do that the player gets the sense he then needs to score in that matchup and that can take you out of your offence. It also drained the shot clock trying to get into those matchups. It also stopped the ball from moving. So when FVV or Kyle got Kemba they ended up with 9 or 10 seconds and everyone standing around watching.

                          Second, Pascal was so bad that it left them with no options other than Lowry and Fred and that wasn't enough.

                          Third, FVV plays too much hero ball now. There was a stretch in the late first/early second quarter where he was penetrating and passing and making the right plays and looked great but he stopped doing it to get shots up. Not sure if he didn't trust the other guys, lack of options or selfishness but he's been doing it all season.

                          My issue with FVV moving forward is two-fold: short term, how do you add more playmaking/shotmaking with Fred, OG, Pascal and Lowry locked in as your best 4 players? Long term, is he willing to move into more of a PG role facilitating the offence, deferring to others and being a timely shooter/scorer?

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                          • #58
                            Jclaw wrote: View Post
                            worth noting that this is really Masai's first chance to build his own team. I mean he did with the championship team but this is a different situation. Not inheriting a coach and the Demar/Kyle pair. Not preserving a roster for a title defense run. No expectations. Just tinker and build to get us there again. Should be interesting
                            It's also his first chance to show he can attract and sign a significant FA here. Even Kawhi was an exceptional circumstance to land a guy that really didn't want to be here. Masai's legacy could be significantly expanded here imo.

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                            • #59
                              DanH wrote: View Post

                              Any 2B player making more than the minimum will likely need to be added after a Giannis, not before, otherwise they eat into the cap room needed to add Giannis in the first place.
                              Perhaps that's something that can be sold to Giannis and worked on with his input as to who to bring in. Can that be turned into a selling point then?

                              Although I don't always agree with you on player importance to the team/minutes, I really appreciate your knowledge of the cap/exemptions/exceptions etc.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                slaw wrote: View Post

                                I think a couple things happened in the Celtics series.

                                First, Raps starting hunting down matchups with Kemba which made sense but sometimes when you do that the player gets the sense he then needs to score in that matchup and that can take you out of your offence. It also drained the shot clock trying to get into those matchups. It also stopped the ball from moving. So when FVV or Kyle got Kemba they ended up with 9 or 10 seconds and everyone standing around watching.

                                Second, Pascal was so bad that it left them with no options other than Lowry and Fred and that wasn't enough.

                                Third, FVV plays too much hero ball now. There was a stretch in the late first/early second quarter where he was penetrating and passing and making the right plays and looked great but he stopped doing it to get shots up. Not sure if he didn't trust the other guys, lack of options or selfishness but he's been doing it all season.

                                My issue with FVV moving forward is two-fold: short term, how do you add more playmaking/shotmaking with Fred, OG, Pascal and Lowry locked in as your best 4 players? Long term, is he willing to move into more of a PG role facilitating the offence, deferring to others and being a timely shooter/scorer?
                                Celtics baited Fred to score at the rim, and - like Charlie Brown, Lucy and the football - he fell for it over & over again. Either that, or it was just ego, or both. Even if Fred got by Kemba or any other defender, there was always another help defender who could meet the slow-footed FVV at the rim and contest the layup.

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