Everything Off Season

[The Great One]

I don't get it. Their best player didn't make the the All NBA team, their second best player did. Their best player didn't get an MVP vote, their 2nd best player on the other hand finished top 10 in MVP voting. Huh? what am i missing here?

[KeonClark]

I don't get it. Their best player didn't make the the All NBA team, their second best player did. Their best player didn't get an MVP vote, their 2nd best player on the other hand finished top 10 in MVP voting. Huh? what am i missing here?

Narrative based, people don't watch the games. Derozan finished higher in all nba than Lowry ever did, and higher in voting in 2017 and 2018. People legit thought Derozan was our MVP and quarterback.

Even today with all the knowledge and advanced stats available, its still a hot take, quick tweet, box score, raw stats league. Most of these writers aren't watching games.

[DanH]

Wrote two pieces on the cap situation this summer (and planning for next). Really was one piece but editors be editors. Much fuller explanations if you want to go read the full pieces, but I'm pulling a bunch of excerpts that should cover your big picture stuff.

https://www.raptorshq.com/2020/9/17/...view-decisions
https://www.raptorshq.com/2020/9/18/...son-2020-plans

Player | 2020-21 Salary

Pascal Siakam: $30.6M
Kyle Lowry: $30.5M
Norman Powell: $10.9M
Patrick McCaw: $4.0M
OG Anunoby: $3.9M
Stanley Johnson: $3.8M (Player Option)
Terence Davis: $1.5M
Matt Thomas: $1.5M
Dewan Hernandez: $1.5M

The Raptors also have the 29th pick in the draft, which comes with a $1.5 million cap hit.

So that is $88.2 million in committed salary for next season to 10 players (including that first round pick). With a salary cap of $109 million, and the minimum salary cap holds that sit on empty roster spots, that means at most, they could have $19 million in cap room, if they let all their free agents walk and want to sign another team’s free agent.

Player | 2021-22 Salary

Pascal Siakam: $33.0M
Norman Powell: $11.6M (Player Option)
Matt Thomas: $1.8M
Dewan Hernandez: $1.8M
OG Anunoby: $11.6M (cap hold)
Terence Davis: $2.1M (cap hold)

Norman Powell will likely opt out of that final year, if he even comes close to replicating his success from this past year. If he doesn’t, and seems likely to opt in, expect the Raptors to try to move his contract at the deadline. For now, assuming he will opt out is how we’ll approach this.

Now add in the second year of this draft’s first rounder and the first year of the following draft’s first rounder. (I used the 20th pick, assuming the 11th best record, to make sure we capture the likely worst case cap hit.) The Raptors would have the above five players (excluding Powell) and two draft picks locked in for $54.1 million in salary. That’s seven slots, meaning Toronto would also have five empty roster spot cap holds at $900,000 each — so let’s set their total cap commitment at $58.6 million.

With a presumed $109 million cap, that means $50.4 million in room to add additional talent to that group of seven. One of those pieces to add would be the max salary free agent Toronto will want to sign that summer. If it is Giannis, or someone else with his experience, that max salary is 30 percent of the cap, or $32.7 million.

So, take that as a best estimate right now: the Raptors will have somewhere between $13.1 million and $18.5 million to work with in 2021 before considering this coming fall off-season.

2020 Raptors Free Agents

Marc Gasol (UFA)
Serge Ibaka (UFA)
Fred VanVleet (UFA)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (UFA)
Chris Boucher (RFA)
Malcolm Miller (RFA)

So, for example, if Fred was to earn the biggest contract the Raptors could fit, they could structure it with a dip in year two before rising again thereafter, so that the second year stays at that $18.5 million number. Most contracts either stay flat, or just have raises every year — but teams can be creative if they want to be. For example, a potential five-year VanVleet contract could be structured to look like this:

2020-21: 20.2M
2021-22: 18.5M
2022-23: 20.2M
2023-24: 21.8M
2024-25: 23.4M

That makes for an average salary of just under $21 million for VanVleet, with a total compensation of $104 million. It’s also a very competitive offer even if the market for VanVleet is very strong. To compare: a max offer for Fred from another team would be $117 million over 4 years, or an average salary of $29.3 million.

Let’s take a look at Serge Ibaka, for example. He had a great year off the bench and seems primed to at the very least get a longer term offer of three or four years at the MLE (the Mid-Level Exception: about $10 million average salary). If Ibaka has a $30 million contract waiting for him, how much would the Raptors need to pay him to get him to agree to a one year deal? A $10 million deal for one year won’t cut it — at 31 years old (as of today; happy birthday big guy!), what if Ibaka gets hurt or drops off this year? Now, given Ibaka’s role, age, and performance, it won’t be as high as $30 million per year — but the price tag is probably $20 million or maybe even higher to get Ibaka signed for just one season. And that assumes no team with cap room is going to throw him a deal for, say, $15 million average salary (or higher) per season in a multi-year contract, which is possible. This would equate to an even higher one-year equivalent — and at a certain point, there no longer exists a one-year equivalent.

The Raptors, as we discussed yesterday, will have spent approximately $88.2 million on their first ten players. Then add Fred VanVleet, assuming we use that $20.2 million first-year salary, which brings that total to $108.4 million for 11 players. Right away, the Raptors are only $24 million from the tax line, or maybe as much as $32 million if it stays high. But either way, if the Raptors want to re-sign only one free agent, that means the other three slots to get to the minimum roster size of 14 players would cost $4.9 million against the tax (for luxury tax purposes, all minimum salaries are treated like veteran minimum salaries, which are about $1.6 million now). So that one well-paid player needs to get less than $19 million in that one year to avoid starting the tax repearter clock.

As we established earlier, even in the optimistic assumption that Ibaka only has the MLE waiting for him, that might not be enough to keep him. Perhaps more realistic: the Raptors could offer about $10 million each to Boucher and Gasol to get them to stick around for a year, letting Ibaka walk, and the dust settle on the rest of the market.

But, what if the Raptors don’t land their big fish free agent in the summer of 2021? What if even the Raptors’ secondary targets for that cap room go elsewhere?

That’s where having all those expiring contracts comes in handy, as compared to trading players away trying to extract some small amount of value from what remains on their deals.

If they hit the 2021 off-season and discover they’re not going to sign a big name free agent, the Raptors will also be sitting on the Bird Rights for the following players (assuming those that are free agents are re-signed this summer):

Kyle Lowry
Norman Powell (assuming he opts out of his player option)
Marc Gasol (or Serge if Toronto can afford him)
Chris Boucher

[LJ2]

I'd be interested to know what sort of cap situation Boston is in. I believe Jaylen Brown's extension kicks in next year and both Tatum and Smart are going to be due big raises in the next couple of years. Hayward is probably the guy they want to move, but who is going to take that contract of his with all those injuries?

[saints91]

It will be interesting to see if Fred gets offered the max from someone. I assume we wouldn't match it.

I think we could bust the bank for 1 year of Serg. just to keep or options open for 21-22

[G__Deane]

I'm always amazed/dismayed at the Raptor cap situation when we have no true superstars.

But as I have posted previously, Kyle and Pascal are now paid like superstars and our 2nd highest paid players from last year (Gasol) is paid like Anthony Davis or Paul George and our 3rd highest paid players last season (Serge) is paid considerably more than the 3rd option on the Lakers, Clippers, Celtics, Bucks, Miami or Rockets for instance.

[DanH]

I'd be interested to know what sort of cap situation Boston is in. I believe Jaylen Brown's extension kicks in next year and both Tatum and Smart are going to be due big raises in the next couple of years. Hayward is probably the guy they want to move, but who is going to take that contract of his with all those injuries?

If Hayward opts into his 34M player option (he should...), they are at ~137M committed salary just to their top 10 players. They can cut 5M of that by cutting Theis... After next season, Hayward expires, but then Tatum and Theis are both FAs wanting raises.

[DanH]

It will be interesting to see if Fred gets offered the max from someone. I assume we wouldn't match it.

I think we could bust the bank for 1 year of Serg. just to keep or options open for 21-22

If Fred walks, we could dole out a lot of 1 year money, but if we re-sign him (presumably to a long term deal), we have to be careful all those other 1 year deals don't take us into the tax.

[G__Deane]

It will be interesting to see if Fred gets offered the max from someone. I assume we wouldn't match it.

I think we could bust the bank for 1 year of Serg. just to keep or options open for 21-22

Regardless of some reports, I don't think it's a slam dunk that some team offers Fred a max deal.
If they do, you first gotta see where Fred wants to play vs where he can make the absolute most and then thank him for his contributions if he needs a max deal.

[golden]

I'm always amazed/dismayed at the Raptor cap situation when we have no true superstars.

But as I have posted previously, Kyle and Pascal are now paid like superstars and our 2nd highest paid players from last year (Gasol) is paid like Anthony Davis or Paul George and our 3rd highest paid players last season (Serge) is paid considerably more than the 3rd option on the Lakers, Clippers, Celtics, Bucks, Miami or Rockets for instance.

We did have a true superstar last year + whatever you think Lowry is (advanced stats superstar?).

But yeah, you gotta be jealous of the Heat's cap situation. They have a legit max player on the roster AND another max salary slot open next year + cheap depth. It just shows how important it is to quickly develop young players on value contracts into reliable rotation pieces. We also had that last year with Pascal, OG, Fred & Norm.

[planetmars]

Yup.. the best way to contend is superstar (Kawhi) + budding star (Siakam) on rookie deal + bunch of depth on cheap deals (Fred, OG, Norm) + vets on 1 or 2 year contracts (Serge, Marc, Danny, Kyle).

Heat have that now with Butler + Bam + Herro/Robinson/Nunn/etc + Dragic/Olynyk/Crowder/Iggy.

You can do it with two stars and one less vet. Or with vet's taking the minimum (but they won't be as good).


I think Fred getting over $20M and Kyle still hanging around is going to be a cap killer. We either keep Kyle even when he gets OLD and move on from Fred. Or we drop Kyle and stay with Fred. That decision will have to be made in 2021. I'd prefer that we keep Kyle. He's like fine wine. He's going to be a star even at 37 and 38. He'll just need load management.

[G__Deane]

We did have a true superstar last year + whatever you think Lowry is (advanced stats superstar?).

But yeah, you gotta be jealous of the Heat's cap situation. They have a legit max player on the roster AND another max salary slot open next year + cheap depth. It just shows how important it is to quickly develop young players on value contracts into reliable rotation pieces. We also had that last year with Pascal, OG, Fred & Norm.

I love Lowry but he's not among the handful of true superstars in the league. ymmv but i think $30M players should be few and far between, rare air. That's why when you have 2 superstars or guys paid like it, the 3rd guy gets $15 or less (Danny Green, Marcus Morris, Eric Gordon, Marcus Smart)

History and RR posters would not have been so kind to him (and weren't) without the chip last year either.

[Rudy Bargnani]

I'm always amazed/dismayed at the Raptor cap situation when we have no true superstars.

But as I have posted previously, Kyle and Pascal are now paid like superstars and our 2nd highest paid players from last year (Gasol) is paid like Anthony Davis or Paul George and our 3rd highest paid players last season (Serge) is paid considerably more than the 3rd option on the Lakers, Clippers, Celtics, Bucks, Miami or Rockets for instance.

Pascal made $2.3 million this year and was 2nd team all NBA. C'mon man it's not that bad.
Also RE Lowry you pay more to get a shorter term. No way the Raptors give/gave him that on a 4 year deal. They want to go 1 year at a time and you pay a premium for that. In some cases it is worthwhile to do it.

[KeonClark]

I'm always amazed/dismayed at the Raptor cap situation when we have no true superstars.

But as I have posted previously, Kyle and Pascal are now paid like superstars and our 2nd highest paid players from last year (Gasol) is paid like Anthony Davis or Paul George and our 3rd highest paid players last season (Serge) is paid considerably more than the 3rd option on the Lakers, Clippers, Celtics, Bucks, Miami or Rockets for instance.

Why? We had like the 20th highest payroll last year, and the 2nd highest win %. I'd say that's pretty good bang for your buck

[Sonny]

Can we realistically bring both Serge and Fred back next year?