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JV comparable big man production in the modern NBA

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  • #46
    JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    We should also keep in mind that Jonas is ESL.

    Not sure exactly how much this would factor into his learning curve, but it certainly can't help.
    Haha you know, I've never really considered that angle (which I should have since my wife has her Masters Degree in teaching it).

    I would suspect that by the second season, JV would have no problem with Casey's nomenclature for basketball. He might struggle to buy a burrito with extra beef, but I'm sure he knows the coaching terms. Now, if he had a different coach from one year to the next, it could take him longer to pick up newer terminology.

    But as a rookie, that was definitely a factor in his learning curve.
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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    • #47
      Axel wrote: View Post
      It's also worth noting, that while DRtg isn't perfect either, the fact that JV's individual DRtg was actually better than the team's overall DRtg indicates that JV isn't exactly dragging down the team. No single stat can capture Defence that well, which is why it was left out of the original research.
      Another good point. Probably a better descriptor of his man-to-man/post defence is his DRTG, and the APM numbers are a better judge of his team/help defence.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • #48
        DanH wrote: View Post
        Another good point. Probably a better descriptor of his man-to-man/post defence is his DRTG, and the APM numbers are a better judge of his team/help defence.
        That would seem logical since team defence and help defence require a longer learning curve than man to man fundamentals; and the numbers would seem to reflect this.
        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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        • #49
          mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
          I agree with these sentiments.

          Some of my thoughts on DeRozan still stand but the overwhelming majority turned out to be WRONG. However when I was framing my arguments, I'd like to think, at the very, very least, that I was using sound reasoning. Obviously my biases came shining through at times but the overall foundation of the argument was at least reasoned and I always said I hoped to be wrong because as a Raptor fan that would be good for me and the team.

          I don't get that from Chr1st1anL posts. There is rarely any justification given other than opinion which, quite frankly, doesn't hold up to the reality of the 22 year old, just entering 3rd year situation.
          Listen Matt I never said he would be a bust. I'm talking about right now. I don't know how JV's career is going to pan out. JV has a lot of potential offensively but so far defensively I don't see it. Some numbers might say different but the eye test say differently well. He constantly seem lost and extremely awkward at times. I personally feel that a defensive Center is more important. Obviously id like JV to succeed cause that would make the team better but, I'm not going to hold my tongue when does something dumb.

          You guys always say that his only 22 but Ross is 23 and he gets the defensive side already. So why should I give JV a past cause his about 10 months younger? I hold them to the same standard.

          Yes, I know your going to go on about DD but, who coached him when he was drafted? Was defence a priority back than? Weren't you the one to give that stat about how after a certain amount of minutes played a player can't change? Even though you were wrong doesn't it go for both sides of the ball.

          I'm a huge believer that it's really about the situation a player is put in to succeed. Unless your LBJ and KD. JV and Ross have the benefit to be coached by a defensive minded coach. The fact Ross gets it already makes me feel that he has the chance to be better than the both of them when it's all said and done. Especially with Center position slowly disappearing.


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          @Chr1st1anL

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          • #50
            For someone who brings up defence a lot you seem woefully ignorant of the fact that one position is significantly harder to learn than another.

            Man to man, on-ball defence is the easiest to learn, while help defence and rotations are the most difficult.

            Ross benefits from his wing position being more on-ball oriented. His help rotations are still fairly poor by comparison but since most of his defensive responsibilities consist of track, deny then on-ball, they are minimalised over the course of a game.

            JV on the other hand, spends a very high percentage of the time playing help defence. This is amplified by the lack of post scorers in the league these days. He has shown to be adept at post defence and his pick n roll defence is improving yet he still struggles with the help rotations. Since he is most often put in help position, it seems amplified over the course of a game.
            Heir, Prince of Cambridge

            If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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            • #51
              Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
              Listen Matt I never said he would be a bust. I'm talking about right now. I don't know how JV's career is going to pan out. JV has a lot of potential offensively but so far defensively I don't see it. Some numbers might say different but the eye test say differently well. He constantly seem lost and extremely awkward at times. I personally feel that a defensive Center is more important. Obviously id like JV to succeed cause that would make the team better but, I'm not going to hold my tongue when does something dumb.

              You guys always say that his only 22 but Ross is 23 and he gets the defensive side already. So why should I give JV a past cause his about 10 months younger? I hold them to the same standard.

              Yes, I know your going to go on about DD but, who coached him when he was drafted? Was defence a priority back than? Weren't you the one to give that stat about how after a certain amount of minutes played a player can't change? Even though you were wrong doesn't it go for both sides of the ball.

              I'm a huge believer that it's really about the situation a player is put in to succeed. Unless your LBJ and KD. JV and Ross have the benefit to be coached by a defensive minded coach. The fact Ross gets it already makes me feel that he has the chance to be better than the both of them when it's all said and done. Especially with Center position slowly disappearing.


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              Bold 1: Hold him to the same standard as DeRozan then. DeRozan is 5 years under his belt and his defense is still sketchy and he guards the weaker perimeter player.

              Bold 2: Your perception is not backed by the stats. While he does often mess up on rotations, that is experience. It also doesn't help when you're relying on a rookie to cover the mistakes of more experienced wing players.

              Bold 3: Different positions. If you think guarding the wing and guarding the post AND being the last line of defense at the rim are the same thing, I guess we'll never reach any sort of consensus.

              Bold 4: Of course I"m going to mention DeRozan. Why? Because you appear to be a hypocrite. So because DeRozan's first two years in the league he was coached by Jay Triano, he gets a pass? What about the last 3 years with Casey? JV has only had 2 years, you do realize, right?

              Bold 5: After DD's 4th year he had played 9724 minutes. My statement last year is most players with that amount of NBA experience are what they are after that point. For DD to improve he would be an extremely rare exception to the rule.... guess what? He was. However how is that relevant to JV? DD gets 4 years and almost 10K minutes but JV is a sack of poop after 2 years and 3764 minutes? Your bias is showing.

              Bold 6: You do realize DD has been coached an extra season with Casey compared to JV and Ross? Why aren't you writing DD off if defense is what matters most to you?

              Bold 7: Probably one of the greatest myths today. The game has changed but a dominant C has proven to be extremely valuable. The best way to have an outside game is to have an inside game. The only teams to actually win the championship without a good C require generational talents.

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              • #52
                On Ross "getting" the defensive side already. Um, nope. He has very high potential defensively, and CAN be a game changer on that end, but very, very often gets lost or drifts for a second. His defensive impact stats are similar or worse across the board compared to Jonas' (DRAPM: -2 vs -1.7; DxRAPM -2.6 vs -0.5; DAPM -3.4 vs +0.4; on-off court DRTG impact -3.2 vs -3.6). His DWS were significantly less (.049 DWS/48 vs .067).

                I've got high hopes for both (Ross as a stopper with athleticism and shooting on offense, Jonas as a post monster on offense with solid but unspectacular D), but neither are actually any good defensively just yet.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • #53
                  Axel wrote: View Post
                  It's also worth noting, that while DRtg isn't perfect either, the fact that JV's individual DRtg was actually better than the team's overall DRtg indicates that JV isn't exactly dragging down the team. No single stat can capture Defence that well, which is why it was left out of the original research.
                  Majorly agree with this. Actually, I'm pretty skeptical of just about any individual defensive metric, even just on the logical basis that the coaching, rule changes and schemes can have a dramatic effect on the individual results.

                  For example, not long ago, a common defensive strategy was funneling guys into the lane towards a dominant shot blocker (e.g. the Russell era Celtics). After the 3-second defensive lane violation rule change, most teams started to send guys baseline, but the Sam Mitchell era Raptors were still funneling players into the lane, which inevitably resulted into the center being out of position and looking worse than if he played for a different team with a different scheme. Not sure if that's even possible to capture in boxscore data (i.e. what was the intent of the play). Or what about the Kevin O'Neill strategy of sending zero guys to the offensive glass and everybody sprinting back on defense to setup in half-court defense. That would seriously penalize a dominant offensive rebounder like Amir - which has to be considered one of the best possible ways to both defend a team and immediately put pressure on them offensively.

                  I'm actually more inclined to live with the drawbacks of of a messy stat like DRTG which might be more intertwined with team defense, since that's kind of the objective of good defense (5 guys on a string); rather than attempt to solve the problem with a heavily calculated stat like RAPM or APM which purports to separate out the effects of other players and schemes. Just my opinion, but I just don't think that is possible to do with defensive stats to a degree of accuracy needed to make the data really meaningful.

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                  • #54
                    JV comparable big man production in the modern NBA

                    All good points. Only time will tell.


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                    Last edited by Chr1s1anL; Thu Sep 18, 2014, 07:15 PM.
                    @Chr1st1anL

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                    • #55
                      golden wrote: View Post
                      Majorly agree with this. Actually, I'm pretty skeptical of just about any individual defensive metric, even just on the logical basis that the coaching, rule changes and schemes can have a dramatic effect on the individual results.

                      For example, not long ago, a common defensive strategy was funneling guys into the lane towards a dominant shot blocker (e.g. the Russell era Celtics). After the 3-second defensive lane violation rule change, most teams started to send guys baseline, but the Sam Mitchell era Raptors were still funneling players into the lane, which inevitably resulted into the center being out of position and looking worse than if he played for a different team with a different scheme. Not sure if that's even possible to capture in boxscore data (i.e. what was the intent of the play). Or what about the Kevin O'Neill strategy of sending zero guys to the offensive glass and everybody sprinting back on defense to setup in half-court defense. That would seriously penalize a dominant offensive rebounder like Amir - which has to be considered one of the best possible ways to both defend a team and immediately put pressure on them offensively.

                      I'm actually more inclined to live with the drawbacks of of a messy stat like DRTG which might be more intertwined with team defense, since that's kind of the objective of good defense (5 guys on a string); rather than attempt to solve the problem with a heavily calculated stat like RAPM or APM which purports to separate out the effects of other players and schemes. Just my opinion, but I just don't think that is possible to do with defensive stats to a degree of accuracy needed to make the data really meaningful.
                      Yeah, but that's the whole point of those APM stats. They adjust out for expected performance based on how the team does without the player. So if Mitchell's teams were funneling the wrong way, they did so no matter who was at C - meaning all the C's would see their individual defensive rankings hurt - which means none of them would be penalized for it at the APM level, since that's the baseline. Whereas DRTG would demonstrate that the C's were giving up a lot of points, which is a system thing, as you said.

                      Of the two options, I think APM stats are FAR superior for judging defense compared to individual DRTG.

                      Bargnani, in his last season here, had a better individual DRTG than DeRozan, Anderson and Ross. Meanwhile, his on-court DRTG and net team DRTG impact were far worse than any of them (although close to Anderson's) because his help D was SO BAD, which is not captured at all with DRTG.
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                      • #56
                        How much JV's offensive numbers improve this year will depend immensely on how Casey runs the offense. It will probably still run primarily through DD and KL. Hopefully a few more touches JV's way though. If we can take much from the FIBA tournament, his decision making on offense is a little better, and he is making his move faster which was a real detriment to him last year. It allowed his defenders to get set, and lead to many turnovers. Regardless of the offense though, in the next few years, he can definitely be a 15-18 point scorer.
                        I really want to see him improve his help defense, his screen setting and be a more consistent rebounder this year. He has the potential to be a top 5 center in the league in the next five years, so lets hope he gets there!

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                        • #57
                          Azor Ahai wrote: View Post
                          How much JV's offensive numbers improve this year will depend immensely on how Casey runs the offense. It will probably still run primarily through DD and KL. Hopefully a few more touches JV's way though. If we can take much from the FIBA tournament, his decision making on offense is a little better, and he is making his move faster which was a real detriment to him last year. It allowed his defenders to get set, and lead to many turnovers. Regardless of the offense though, in the next few years, he can definitely be a 15-18 point scorer.
                          I really want to see him improve his help defense, his screen setting and be a more consistent rebounder this year. He has the potential to be a top 5 center in the league in the next five years, so lets hope he gets there!
                          True but DD and KL have been the offense for 2 years now and I don't expect that to change.

                          His usage went up last season from 16.9 to 18.5. I would expect a bump of a similar amount at the very least.

                          However it is on JV to be more efficient. He started last season REALLY slow. I think it was too much weight too soon and adapting to it. He tore up the last two months of the season and playoffs shooting right around 60% (60.5%/57.6%/63.3% PO). I believe we are going to see a better post game and then he needs to show the mid range jumper that he flashed in his rookie season. Last year from 8-16ft he only shot 33.6% and 16-24 just 33.3% after rookie season with 41.5% and 39.5%.

                          I really do not hope to see a repeat of the playoffs. The team went back to my turn, your turn basketball and JV saw his FG attempts drop from 10.6 in the last month of the season and 8.3 on the season to 7.0 in the playoffs despite shooting 63.3%.

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                          • #58
                            Imagine an alternate universe where JV was forced to become a the #1 option similar to what happened to DD. What would you guys think JV would average? And no matter how terrible defensively he plays he always gets his 19 shots per game
                            "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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                            • #59
                              MACK11 wrote: View Post
                              Imagine an alternate universe where JV was forced to become a the #1 option similar to what happened to DD. What would you guys think JV would average? And no matter how terrible defensively he plays he always gets his 19 shots per game
                              Now how am I going to explain the mess on the keyboard to my wife?

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                              • #60
                                mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                                Now how am I going to explain the mess on the keyboard to my wife?
                                Haters gon' hate.

                                It's interesting to wonder if JV's efficiency would make a (significant) drop if he were to be one of the main options on offense. Also, he struggles to hold on to the ball in the post at times. This could be a potentially ugly scenario.
                                OG is our king

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