Everything NBA 2020-21

[G__Deane]

I blame the legends.... specifically: Magic, MJ, Shaq and even Kobe for creating the modern narrative that your career is worthless until you have 3, 4, 5 rings or more. Those guys were merciless in attacking ring-less, pre-Miami Lebron. Why? Mainly to protect their own legacies from being surpassed by Lebron, who did what he had to do to protect his own legacy. Once Lebron legitimized teaming up, it was fair game for every other star to follow suit.

Which is why lebron will never be greater than MJ.

[KeonClark]

Idk, but Fred's defensive rating had been getting worse.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/fre...ting-by-season

And there's for sure many guards that are better than him.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/ad...gular%20Season

According to this list, Dario saric has the leagues best defensive rating lol. Fred is on like page 10 with Draymond green. This is my problem with these "stats".

[DanH]

Sure, but Fred can really only defend those guys with using a gimmick Box & One (like Kemba in the playoffs), which creates bigger problems elsewhere on the court... specifically at the rim.

The box and one doesn't protect the one, it requires a dominant defender at the one. And the box zone shouldn't cause issues at the rim, the whole point of that zone is that all your defenders stay close to the paint to shut down the rim while one guy (your best defender) chases the one perimeter threat you are worried about. You are daring the other 4 to hit threes, that's the problem that arises from a box and one (or any zone really), if the other guys can punish it. It's a defensive strategy specifically for shutting down a single player and eliminating rim looks from their passes. You run that with McCaw or Powell as the one and it falls apart instantly.

[DanH]

Idk, but Fred's defensive rating had been getting worse.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/fre...ting-by-season

And there's for sure many guards that are better than him.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/ad...gular%20Season

You should understand the statistics you use. These numbers have value but as a single evaluator of a player's defence you are looking in the wrong place.

These are on-court defensive ratings. It's how many points per 100 possessions a player's team gives up when they are on the court. As you might expect, all 5 players, as well as the opposition they face, and the defensive strategies their team/coach employs, play into that number.

These ratings can be useful comparing within a team, although requires some understanding of the context of a player's minutes still. They are even more useful comparing combinations of players and lineups, but for individual players you need to evaluate with advanced impact (adjusted plus minus) stats to isolate the impact a single player has on the team's performance on each end, defence especially.

PIPM was great but unfortunately is not publicly available from the source anymore (as Goldstein got hired by a team). EPM is a pretty decent comparison to it, and at least tries to do the same things.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

You can see there that Fred is in the 85th percentile among defenders in terms of individual impact on the team defence. He ranks near the top of the league in deflections and steals pretty consistently (which are not good standalone measures of defence but are useful as part of a larger picture). Meanwhile the Raptors are 3 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Fred on the court than off. All together these paint a pretty nice picture to say that Fred is at the very least a very, very good defender.

[LJ2]

Sooo, like I was saying....has Freddy become our most valuable player (best trade chip as well)? He's averaging 20/6/4 and is one of a few handful of players in the league that can slow down elite guards.

[KeonClark]

Sooo, like I was saying....has Freddy become our most valuable player (best trade chip as well)? He's averaging 20/6/4 and is one of a few handful of players in the league that can slow down elite guards.

Yes

[DanH]

Sooo, like I was saying....has Freddy become our most valuable player (best trade chip as well)? He's averaging 20/6/4 and is one of a few handful of players in the league that can slow down elite guards.

The impact numbers LOVE him this year. Looks like Lowry does most years. (Lowry is still really good). RPM still loves Lowry like no other but RPM lives on priors so is less of a this-year stat than most other impact stats (and still has FVV borderline top 20 in the league).

[S.R.]

Fred is doing everything you could ask of the guy and then some - except for proving he can keep his 20 ppg up in a tough playoff series without his FG% falling off a cliff. A large cliff. That's the last big to-do item in his individual development, then that guy better be in the ASG ever year and on some All-Defence teams. Hell he'd be pushing All-NBA if his scoring became more reliable against tough defences.

[golden]

You should understand the statistics you use. These numbers have value but as a single evaluator of a player's defence you are looking in the wrong place.

These are on-court defensive ratings. It's how many points per 100 possessions a player's team gives up when they are on the court. As you might expect, all 5 players, as well as the opposition they face, and the defensive strategies their team/coach employs, play into that number.

These ratings can be useful comparing within a team, although requires some understanding of the context of a player's minutes still. They are even more useful comparing combinations of players and lineups, but for individual players you need to evaluate with advanced impact (adjusted plus minus) stats to isolate the impact a single player has on the team's performance on each end, defence especially.

PIPM was great but unfortunately is not publicly available from the source anymore (as Goldstein got hired by a team). EPM is a pretty decent comparison to it, and at least tries to do the same things.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

You can see there that Fred is in the 85th percentile among defenders in terms of individual impact on the team defence. He ranks near the top of the league in deflections and steals pretty consistently (which are not good standalone measures of defence but are useful as part of a larger picture). Meanwhile the Raptors are 3 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Fred on the court than off. All together these paint a pretty nice picture to say that Fred is at the very least a very, very good defender.

Here are the top 13 defenders in the NBA, according to EPM:

[The Claw Reborn]

If he is the MVP of this team then his value is at his highest, trade him and Powell who’s value is also at its peak with our 2021 FRP for Beal and their 2021 FRP.

Sell High and be not that idiot of hanging on to an appreciating stock that may reach its peak value

[Dvdvideo]

This team isn't going to trade Fred, I would be shocked if they ever moved him, with exception maybe for a defensively skilled player.

[DanH]

Here are the top 13 defenders in the NBA, according to EPM:

EPM is not a "here are the top players" stat. Impact stats measure a player's impact in the role the play in. Context is baked in, you have to understand that context to understand what adjusted plus/minus tells you.

For example, Saric has an incredibly high defensive impact - as a low minutes role player off the bench. That does not mean he would be that impactful defensively if he was tasked with dealing with starters every night, it means he has helped his team's bench be much better defensively than they otherwise would be. Now, a lot of the time that's a player you should at least give a shot at starting to see if they can provide that value against better opposition, but it's by no means a guarantee it will translate.

Lots of other examples of that phenomenon in that list. That's part of why it is always good to look at total wins above replacement as well to evaluate the most impactful players, because being able to carry high impact in high minutes (and therefore likely the toughest minutes) is where the real value lies.

[slaw]

Fred is doing everything you could ask of the guy and then some - except for proving he can keep his 20 ppg up in a tough playoff series without his FG% falling off a cliff. A large cliff. That's the last big to-do item in his individual development, then that guy better be in the ASG ever year and on some All-Defence teams. Hell he'd be pushing All-NBA if his scoring became more reliable against tough defences.

A lot of that is a result of the "Bad Fred" stuff where he tries to do too much and ends up in trouble but that is often caused by him being asked to do too much cause Siakam has disappeared, Lowry is smothered and there is no one else. Put a proficient, dangerous scorer out there who takes the defense's attention away from Fred and I'm convinced FVV would seem a lot more consistent and efficient. In the short term, if Siakam was consistently more assertive and commanded more attention regularly it would probably help Fred a lot. Some of that may even tie into golden's theory about Siakam and FVV playing more aggressively (and better) without Lowry - maybe it's really Siakam that turns on?

Anyway, I'm comfortable with FVV going forward. He eats minutes, takes on a pile of pressure/responsibility and plays hard. And he's pretty good out there, too. He plays too selfishly at times which can be frustrating but there are lots of signs of a maturing player in that regard.

[golden]

EPM is not a "here are the top players" stat. Impact stats measure a player's impact in the role the play in. Context is baked in, you have to understand that context to understand what adjusted plus/minus tells you.

For example, Saric has an incredibly high defensive impact - as a low minutes role player off the bench. That does not mean he would be that impactful defensively if he was tasked with dealing with starters every night, it means he has helped his team's bench be much better defensively than they otherwise would be. Now, a lot of the time that's a player you should at least give a shot at starting to see if they can provide that value against better opposition, but it's by no means a guarantee it will translate.

Lots of other examples of that phenomenon in that list. That's part of why it is always good to look at total wins above replacement as well to evaluate the most impactful players, because being able to carry high impact in high minutes (and therefore likely the toughest minutes) is where the real value lies.

Yeah, we get it. These type of stats show the player's impact "within their role + scheme".

Alex Len's name jumps off the page, since he was worse than unplayable here and now he's #12 in defensive impact? Meanwhile, we still need some size in the middle. I mean, we run this super-aggressive defensive scheme, but we're only middle of the pack (15th) in DRTG, compared to the Knicks (2nd), who have All-Defense stalwarts like: Julius Randle, Reggie Bullock, RJ Barrett & Derrick Rose holding things down.

Is it possible that Nurse's defensive scheme is a bit of overkill?

[Kagemusha]

Yeah, we get it. These type of stats show the player's impact "within their role + scheme".

Alex Len's name jumps off the page, since he was worse than unplayable here and now he's #12 in defensive impact? Meanwhile, we still need some size in the middle. I mean, we run this super-aggressive defensive scheme, but we're only middle of the pack (15th) in DRTG, compared to the Knicks (2nd), who have All-Defense stalwarts like: Julius Randle, Reggie Bullock, RJ Barrett & Derrick Rose holding things down.

Is it possible that Nurse's defensive scheme is a bit of overkill?

For analyzing individual player defense, I like this DRAYMOND tool by Nate Silver a bit better.
Unfortunately I can't find their most recent data.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethi...a-defense/amp/