Everything NBA 2020-21

[TrueTorontoFan]

I truly envy your research department.

oh nonono you try to add it.. at the very least OG and siakam are likely here to stay and floor wise they are likely good enough to carry you to a 4th seed at least. FVV is good too but he is likely the outgoing piece needed to get you someone unless we draft top 5... to get you your next super star. If we some how add a solid starting level center I don't see why we aren't floor wise a 4th seed. Ceiling would be contending. Depending on development of again siakam and OG.

[Puffer]

I've been thinking about lineups since broadcasts starting airing 'different starting lineup' type stats, always a factor but even more with this often out of sync season. COVID and normal NBA ups and downs have affected some teams more than others. Also, in this 'slapping together a super team' era I think on-court reps are undervalued, an issue the Clippers ran into last postseason. It took the Raptors a good half a season to really integrate Kawhi, there was a visible difference between the synergy of the bench and the lack of synergy with the starters that it took some time to work through. Ditto the Heatles, who really hit their stride in Year 2.

Here's a few differences between some teams that are rolling this season and some that are underperforming, minutes and net rating of most used 5 man lineups:

Top 5 Seeds
Utah 594 min, +11
Phoenix 676, +6
Brooklyn 191, +2
LAC 263, +16
Philly 495, +14

Underperforming
Boston 131, +4
Toronto 129, +3
Miami 197, +3

A couple thoughts:
- You've clearly got some in-rhythm top teams, not just with health but also with roster construction. They know who their top guys are and they play a ton together.
- LAC has played around with their starting 5, between Ibaka/Zubac and Batum/Morris. Put some of those combinations together and they actually have a good amount of reps together and high point differential either way.
- Brooklyn's season is really weird. That top 5 is without KD. KD/Harden/Irving haven't played much together and I wonder if that'll bite them in later rounds or if having 3 franchise-level guys will just smooth over all the issues. But KD/Harden/Irving with Harris + DJ or Harris + Jeff Green have 125 min together and are +18. They're going to smoke some teams.
- The Raptors/Celtics/Heat seasons are eerily similar in my opinion and one key differentiator that has dropped Toronto back in the standings is the lack of a closer. Raptors lose tight games that BOS/MIA manage to win some of.
- A lot of roster fluctuation - hard to differentiate cause and effect here, some underperformance is COVID and injuries and guys being unavailable = a lot of roster changes. But some roster changes are because guys with opportunities aren't performing (*ahem Aaron Baynes*) and management/coaches make changes. But either way, number of different starting lineups used this year: Boston 30, Toronto 28, Miami 24. The top 2 seeds in the league? Utah 6, Phoenix 7. Pretty stark contrast.

Past point of comparison:
Toronto's 129 minutes, +3 lineup this year is a Baynes lineup (sucks!). If we're looking to the future we have some good signs:
- Current starting 5 with a traditional centre, KL/FVV/OG/PS/KB, 91 min and +22
- Small lineup with Powell instead of a C (GTJ next year?), 106 min +13
- Several very good lineups with Boucher at C, +20 to +40 range
Toronto peak Lebronto, 2017/18 59 win team
- KL/DD/OG/SI/JV, 800 minutes and +11

Bring up that last one because the end of the DD/Casey era, the team had multiple years of stability to build on and it really showed up on-court. That was a solid team of good guys, a decent coach, they all played really well together and...the ceiling wasn't that high and they hit the Lebron wall in the playoffs every year. Consistency helps you produce in the regular season, but the NBA still comes down to your peak talent level at some point in the playoffs. That was the DD/Casey era defined, in my opinion.

This season is a mess but some very promising signs for the future. This is why I'm not on board with bailing on current core guys (unless you get some better players in return). There are good players. This year's been unstable. There are some identifiable needs to address. I really wonder what a full season of KL/FVV/OG/PS/KB would produce. I think that team might be surprisingly good, though still a step down from the top tier of the league.

I'd also expect Miami and Boston to return to form next year. Those are good teams too, also having rough seasons.

And Utah and Phoenix are benefitting from some stability, but I wonder about their peak talent potential in the playoffs. Are they just the WC Bucks?

Great post and some interesting conclusions. This core, with some stability and time as a unit has every chance of being very, very good. And it looks like the Raptors have at least 3 more rotation guys who could be counted on, after an off-season of development and a proper training camp and pre-season. With a lottery pick and a couple of second round picks in the mid/low 40s, I certainly don't think there is anything to give up on. You are bang on about the importance of time playing together. You didn't mention quality and mindset of the players, but with this group those are positive attributes.

[JawsGT]

oh nonono you try to add it.. at the very least OG and siakam are likely here to stay and floor wise they are likely good enough to carry you to a 4th seed at least. FVV is good too but he is likely the outgoing piece needed to get you someone unless we draft top 5... to get you your next super star. If we some how add a solid starting level center I don't see why we aren't floor wise a 4th seed. Ceiling would be contending. Depending on development of again siakam and OG.

I think pascal is the more likely candidate for a trade to upgrade the roster for a few reasons. For one, fvv isnt as easy to replace as some probably think. If lowry returns, then so be it, we can easily pivot without fred, but if lowry leaves we need fred even more. Second, most teams are set at PG, leaving fewer options for a fred trade. Third, if we land a solid starting C (i.e., not birch, gillespie or even holmes) then we can easily balance the roster and even improve it if pascal is moved for an upgrade at another position. I love OG at the 4, and GTJr can easily play the 3. Pair FVV with a scoring SG, hopefully a guy the can finish crunch possesions, and we are set for potential contention.

OG seems to be coming into his own right now, which might be one of the few positives coming out of this season. That to me makes pascal a little more expendable. Birch looks like a solid backup C option, I really hope he returns, but as a backup only. Flynn I really like, but hes also just a backup at the moment and needs another season or two before a starting position should be considered. Our bench depth is secure IMO, with flynn, watanabe, boucher and birch, thats not bad. Its our starting unit thats lacking, but we certainly need to keep one of fvv or lowry. Given their contract situations and age, Im leaning on keeping fred. I really dont know what the path to upgrade is, but it seems to me pascal might be the easiest to move and most attractive to other teams while returning what the raps need to quickly get back to contention.

[JawsGT]

All that being said, I'd be fine with doing nothing but getting a solid starting C and seeing what this team can do playing, hopefully, back in TO in front of fans again.

Turner, pascal, OG, GTjr, fvv with flynn, watanabe, bouch, birch and another guard is a decent team. Still lacking a closer, but maybe improvements from pascal, and especially OG and GTJr, can negate some of the need for that. Theres always time to tweak for a closer at the deadline or even the following offseason. Not everything has to happen this offseason I guess.

[The Great One]

So LeBron will return to the Lakers lineup tonight. The Lakers game on sunday is the one game in this roadtrip that I was thinking the Raps might steal. Well, LeBron's back so....

[G__Deane]

So LeBron will return to the Lakers lineup tonight. The Lakers game on sunday is the one game in this roadtrip that I was thinking the Raps might steal. Well, LeBron's back so....

Maybe Flynn spins a ball in his face and drops a 3 ball over him .....

[TrueTorontoFan]

I think pascal is the more likely candidate for a trade to upgrade the roster for a few reasons. For one, fvv isnt as easy to replace as some probably think. If lowry returns, then so be it, we can easily pivot without fred, but if lowry leaves we need fred even more. Second, most teams are set at PG, leaving fewer options for a fred trade. Third, if we land a solid starting C (i.e., not birch, gillespie or even holmes) then we can easily balance the roster and even improve it if pascal is moved for an upgrade at another position. I love OG at the 4, and GTJr can easily play the 3. Pair FVV with a scoring SG, hopefully a guy the can finish crunch possesions, and we are set for potential contention.

OG seems to be coming into his own right now, which might be one of the few positives coming out of this season. That to me makes pascal a little more expendable. Birch looks like a solid backup C option, I really hope he returns, but as a backup only. Flynn I really like, but hes also just a backup at the moment and needs another season or two before a starting position should be considered. Our bench depth is secure IMO, with flynn, watanabe, boucher and birch, thats not bad. Its our starting unit thats lacking, but we certainly need to keep one of fvv or lowry. Given their contract situations and age, Im leaning on keeping fred. I really dont know what the path to upgrade is, but it seems to me pascal might be the easiest to move and most attractive to other teams while returning what the raps need to quickly get back to contention.

The problem is if you trade pascal... for lets say hypothetical BEAL or KAT...


KAT -> not enough to trade for him more than likely. So you would have to give pascal and a bunch of other crap future assets or our pick which runs us into a similar issue of depth as this year.. ALTHOUGH offensively he would be ridiculous.

This is close to what I would say I would be happy with.


Beal -> makes us very thin at the front court where we are already SUPER thin.


For the record we aren't getting KAT.

[saints91]

The thing that worries me about KAT is no matter who they surround him with, they don’t really get much better. They have consistently been a bad team with him
on the roster. They’ve had good coaches, they’ve had a bunch different good players and they still suck.

Keep in mind that Kyle won’t be here forever, and the loss of his leadership may negatively effect our effort level. You don’t want to subtract Kyle and then also add a guy that doesn’t seem to be able to win to a roster.

[golden]

The thing that worries me about KAT is no matter who they surround him with, they don’t really get much better. They have consistently been a bad team with him
on the roster. They’ve had good coaches, they’ve had a bunch different good players and they still suck.

Keep in mind that Kyle won’t be here forever, and the loss of his leadership may negatively effect our effort level. You don’t want to subtract Kyle and then also add a guy that doesn’t seem to be able to win to a roster.

Weren’t we all having this same conversation about Anthony Davis 2 years ago?

[G__Deane]

Let me get this straight then;
We need an Alpha and you can't trade for one because the roster would be too thin.
And you can't attract one here as a FA.
And you can't win it all without one.

So the goal is to get back to a Lowry/DeRozan type team, win 50 games a year and a round of playoffs while trying to get a roster deep enough to potentially be in the mix for the time every decade or so when an a disgruntled Alpha might be forced to come here in a trade for a year and get our shot again before he leaves?

[The Great One]

Would I trade Siakam for KAT? yes in a heartbeat. Do I think a team can win with KAT as the main guy? no. I don't think you can win a championship when your best player is a C. One playoff appearance in what, 7 years? that one year was the year they traded for Butler.

KAT is like Anthony Davis. He needs a GREAT wing player to win. Davis never came close to winning anything in New Orleans. They were a perennial 8-9 team in the West. Now that he has a ring people talk about him as a top 5 player. The MAIN reason the Lakers are a contending team is because of LeBron. Take him out of that team and they'll be lucky to make the playoffs.

[planetmars]

Never been a fan of KAT's. Don't really understand the attraction. He's a rich man's (and by that I mean a max player)'s version of Vucevic.

[JawsGT]

The problem is if you trade pascal... for lets say hypothetical BEAL or KAT...


KAT -> not enough to trade for him more than likely. So you would have to give pascal and a bunch of other crap future assets or our pick which runs us into a similar issue of depth as this year.. ALTHOUGH offensively he would be ridiculous.

This is close to what I would say I would be happy with.


Beal -> makes us very thin at the front court where we are already SUPER thin.


For the record we aren't getting KAT.

I wouldnt trade pascal for kat anyways. I dont like kat, he's skilled but seems soft and lazy. Beal I would definetly do. And I wouldnt be too worried about being thin up front. We would certainly need a starting caliber center, but we need that anyway. OG is fine at the 4. Birch and bouch off the bench with gillespie as well would be plenty of bigs. Just need a myles turner type. Maybe holmes is sufficient, I doubt but maybe.

[G__Deane]

We don't have our Jason Tatum either ....
Against the Bucks, Sixers, Nets, Celtics, Heat ..... which matchup(s) do we have the best player on the court?

[JawsGT]

We don't have our Jason Tatum either ....
Against the Bucks, Sixers, Nets, Celtics, Heat ..... which matchup(s) do we have the best player on the court?

Thats why Beal would be great, at least we'd have a scorer capable of going toe to toe with anyone on those teams, outside of the Nets maybe, given they have 3 guys that can score as well or better than beal. The way this season is going though, Beal is looking less and less likely to be available.