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Nba issues notice of smoothing of salary cap starting in 2015/16

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  • #16
    Heatdreamer wrote: View Post
    Realgm is relating the Grantland article about smoothing , no my interpretation is that the nba offices are telling that for next 2015/16 that be aware that the teams should not plan their salary cap in stone as initially projected.

    However, I am pleased the smoothing aspect numbers are consistent with your projections. Last year there were three changes to the salary cap throughout the year. Here the NBA are negotiating the contract , and my hypothetical ( used the word for third time) opens alternative discussion and planning instead of a linear 5% increase and what the ramifications for the roster.
    My issue is not with your hypothetical. My issue is with the title:

    Nba issues notice of smoothing of salary cap starting in 2015/16
    When the reality, from the RealGM article is this:

    Teams are speculating that the league might apply future TV money to the 2015-16 cap, nudging it up above the current projection of $66.5 million.

    The league has told teams in the last two weeks to hold their 2015-16 cap projections steady, but there is a roiling anxiousness that this may change soon.
    That's all I'm saying. There has been no notice issued by the league suggesting any smoothing whatsoever. They may end up going that way, but that sort of speculation has been bouncing around since the news of the big TV deal first sprung up.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #17
      So as the phrase " Be Prepared" may be more relevant . So based on this concept that has been bouncing around since Sept. 8 , 2014 an appropriate discussion of planning in two specific areas.
      1. Upgrading of the PF through free agency or trading your dead weight contracts based on a different criteria.
      2. Planning of how to handle the RFA

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      • #18
        Heatdreamer wrote: View Post
        So as the phrase " Be Prepared" may be more relevant . So based on this concept that has been bouncing around since Sept. 8 , 2014 an appropriate discussion of planning in two specific areas.
        1. Upgrading of the PF through free agency or trading your dead weight contracts based on a different criteria.
        2. Planning of how to handle the RFA

        Solutions of the smoothing process

        So. We know the league's BRI estimates are likely to rise 30-40% after the league agrees to a new TV deal -- that's nowhere near the wild scenarios described in this post, but it would cause a similarly deleterious impact on the league's salary structure. While I'm no legal expert, there are a few ways I could imagine a cap smoothing proposal being both legal under the 2011 CBA and operating in such a way that both the league and the NBPA would agree to it. They are as follows:

        SCENARIO #1: EVERYONE AGREES TO PRETEND THE CAP IS LOWER.

        I mostly just included this one because it's the most obvious result, even if it's extraordinarily unlikely. The basic idea is that teams would simply operate as though the cap is near historical levels, rising by 5-6% instead of 30-40%. They'd sign contracts commensurate with those from previous free agency periods but reflecting the gradual increase. This is silly for obvious reasons. Even in the unlikely event that all teams collectively agreed to operate under a lower threshold to keep salaries in roughly equivalent ranges, the method by which the CBA deals with a salary shortfall (the aforementioned equal assignment of sub-salary floor money to all players on the team below the floor) is a wildly imprecise method of evening out the league's salary. It would still raise the salaries of free agents signed in that free agency period, and it would grant an equal portion of the pie to minimum-salary journeymen and superstars stuck in max deals. And it would also assign larger raises to players on teams with low salary obligations (like tanking teams) at the expense of teams that are trying to field title contenders. Even if Silver could somehow convince the teams to do that, it's unlikely the result would be to anyone's liking.

        SCENARIO #2: THE LEAGUE AND NBPA MUTUALLY AGREE TO DISTRIBUTE EXTRA SALARY THROUGH THE NBPA

        There was one way for the NBA to fix errors in the cap that I didn't mention in this post. Per Larry Coon's CBA FAQ:

        Since individual salaries are negotiated before the season starts (in many cases years before), and BRI is not determined until the season concludes, there are mechanisms in place to adjust when salaries miss their target. If the players receive less than their guaranteed share of BRI, the league cuts a check to the players association for the difference, and this amount is distributed to the players (this happened in 2010-11, under the 2005 CBA).

        This may be the most likely smoothing plan. In this scenario, the league would knowingly keep the BRI estimate lower than expected in concert with the NBPA, which would artificially depress the cap. The remainder of player salary would then be distributed to the players by the NBPA at the end of the season, with the NBPA deciding how to split the large imbalance among all its players. This would probably go on for a few years, increasing the cap by 5-10% each year until the shortfall isn't a massive number anymore. There might be some quibbles among some players with max salaries that this artificial smoothing deflates their max salaries, and that's a very valid point. But this is probably the fairest option.

        SCENARIO #3: THE LEAGUE ADJUSTS FOR THE BRI INCREASE BY SHORTENING THE NBA SCHEDULE

        Both the league and the players have expressed for some time that the NBA's schedule is a bit too long for comfort. The players don't like the increased risk of injury that comes with a longer season or the unnecessary back-to-back stretches that make it hard to stay at top form all year, while the league isn't particularly fond of the anemic basketball that gets played for months of the NBA's calendar or the widespread perception that the NBA's regular season doesn't matter. The NBA has maintained for quite some time that it would like to add some kind of midseason tournament to manufacture new interest in their product and add different parameters for a successful season outside of the simple "NBA championship or bust" framework they have now.

        My thought is that it's possible -- unlikely, but possible -- that the league could use this BRI increase as a way to justify shortening the NBA season. Depending on how much they shortened the NBA season, they could depress BRI projections enough to maintain a relatively even cap despite adding the new national TV deal. They could keep the basic skeleton of the schedule the same (that is, start in October and end in late April) but implement 2-3 weeks of dead time around the all-star break, effectively giving NBA players a month off in the middle of the year. That month would lie dormant until the 2017 CBA negotiations, when the NBA could introduce a plan to hold a two week midseason tournament directly in the now-empty weeks. They could structure the TV deal to include basic parameters for covering the midseason tournament with exact terms to be negotiated after the CBA deal, giving an instant BRI boost as soon as the tournament is agreed upon.

        If there are fears that the tournament's addition could push the league into a similar cap situation to the one it's facing now, the league and the NBPA could negotiate terms such that tournament income is considered "post-BRI" asset income, much like NBA jerseys. That way, players would get paid for the tournament separately from their salary, allowing the league and players to profit off the

        There are a lot of ways the NBA could manage this in a way that benefits both the players and the league. At this point, only one thing is certain -- it's unlikely either side has a great appetite to see how the 2011 CBA holds up in the aforementioned stress case. Artificially easing the cap increase could benefit all parties involved, despite how odd that sounds in a vacuum. Keep an eye on this - as the NBA's new T.V. deal approaches, this back-and-forth between the league and the players is only going to get more interesting.

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        • #19
          Sorry, is that a quote from an article? You really have to start linking things you post here.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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