Everything Draft 2021

[TrueTorontoFan]

Agreed. By that criteria, Barnes isn’t a ‘dangerous’ playmaker. I guess we’re kind of seeing that in the playoffs with Ben Simmons.

exactly ... and even draymond by himself isn't dangerous enough. Even though his defence is elite. he has the value he does specifically because of the two shot creators AND playmakers out there.. At least from an offensive.


Which I suppose makes it sound like I am devaluing my original defense argument. I am not I am just saying that I want someone with two way potential. With a strong defensive base. Alternatively, I want someone who is elite offensively with a combination of playmaking and shot creation/making.


So let me say my opinion on a few wing prospects:

Bouknight is interesting but right now his playmaking and ability to shoot is being called into question in terms of consistency but give him a nod in the consideration category.

Moses Moody is interesting but doesn't have enough of the play-making and shot creation. He can MAKE a shot but he cant create a shot with dribble moves and so he seems to top out as a good average player he doesn't have a high bust potential but doesn't have a high ceiling. So no thanks.

Keon, I would say has some bust in him but he has a very high ceiling, and if you put him into the G league year one he could potentially become that individual.


Davion has the defense which is great ... seems like a damn dog with a bone on the defensive end which I love. His shot creation and making is a HUGE question. if no one else is available sure but I put him in the maybe consider category but lower down.


Still big on springer from a developmental project but I understand won't go further than that.


Giddey is interesting because he has two of the three skills we need but it depends on how bad his defense is.

Jalen Johnson is a 'hell no' as he is too much of an unknown with character issues.


Kuminga can slip and if he does he is 1000% in the yes category.


The reason I focus on defense is because of our current scheme without changing our scheme we need to recognize that it requires everyone or NEARLY everyone to play at such a high level. For a high risk and reward type of defense. At its peak it is unbeatable.


So bring it back to Mr. B. Simmons. Some have suggested getting him he plays solid defence and can playmaker but he misses that shot making AND creation skill that this team needs.

Again a player doesn't need to be good in all three but to keep the bulk of our core intact and look at players who can help be key pieces we need to have those players have 2/3 of those skills be well above average ... as in at the very least in the 75th percentile. If you want to break it down further. They would need to have at least 2/4. If you want to separate shot-making and creation. So the player would need to essentially be just a tier below elite at defense and one of the offensive skills within a two year period which is why I am against taking Mann.

You also have a coach who outlined the importance of defense in his exit interview for this year and who will be admittedly part of the drafting process this year (he said so himself). So I am not only saying what I want the raptors to draft but instead what I want the raptors to draft within specific parameters of what they themselves want as an organization.

[LJ2]

What this team needs is a pure, raw scorer that can create his own shot in different ways. That's it. Their position, their floor vs ceiling, their defence, ability to create for for others, yada yada is all secondary.

Need an offensive force to take the pressure off pascal so he can unlock his game, which in turn will lead to FVV feeling less of a need to chuck up shots late in the clock, leading to a ripple effect that will kick our whole team-offence into another level, including Trent's and Flynn's game. Considering the stage of the team's rebuilding cycle, this is not the draft to finesse a calculated, "safe pick". It's the draft to swing hard for an impact offensive player.

We already have a solid defensive foundation and culture with OG, pascal & fred. That's well rooted. Time to balance that out and continue move away from this current approach that has given way too many minutes to defensive boy-scouts and floor shrinkers like RHJ, McCaw, post-wash Gasol, bembry, stanley etc. Need a player who knows how to put the ball in dang hoop, assisted or unassisted, from the paint, midrange and 3. Worry about the rest later.

On this draft, that seems to be Cade-Green-Suggs-Mobley (in that order), and if you're outside the top 4, Tre Mann and perhaps Bouknight.

Other than Green I don't think there is a Luka or Trae type player in this year's draft that is going to be a great scorer from day one. If there are any of those types of scorers in this draft, they will likely take some time to develop.

[magoon]

What this team needs is a pure, raw scorer that can create his own shot in different ways. That's it. Their position, their floor vs ceiling, their defence, ability to create for for others, yada yada is all secondary.

If it that were that simple Masai would have just signed Lou Williams or Dion Waiters or brought back DeMar or something. There's more to it than that.

I think this passage from Player Development Web says it best:

[There is a] difference between a wing with scoring characteristics, and a scorer. One has expected universality - they are a BUCKET - and the other has terms and conditions on when it's best for them to score. The difference isn't levels, it's that the latter understands their talents and knows it's a time and place, and the BUCKET has a broken clock that points to "time to shoot" at every second of the day. It's not a coincidence that all-caps "BUCKETS" happen to have a higher likelihood of washing all the way out of the league than basically any other archetype. They really don't know any better - there is only one configuration where they work, and it's ball in hand. That's a high bar to clear and anything less than efficient results is instant replaceability.

I've been taking a deep dive on Green of late because his stans are truly fanatical, moreso than for any other prospect out there, and the thing is that his comps are all over the place, in part because G-League stats are incomplete and in part because his sample size is so small - fifteen games just isn't enough to meaningfully assess him. Basically it boils down into three groups:

1. Elite college scorers: Steph, Klay, Beal. This is the dream scenario, obviously, but the reason all of these guys can be comped to Green is because the sample size was so small: basically, he didn't get fouled enough in play for it to meaningfully affect his true shooting percentages, whereas these guys all played enough that it didn't matter how often they were fouled, they were still getting you points either way. Green has a very good free throw percentage in the small sample, to be sure.

2. Sloppier scoring wings in college who got more efficient once they got in the league: Tim Hardaway Jr., Gordon Hayward, Donovan Mitchell, Jeremy Lamb, Buddy Hield, OJ Mayo. All of these guys can play NBA ball to varying degrees - you can get a star like Mitchell or a near-star like Hayward, or you can get a starter-quality-but-not-gonna-be-huge player like THJ or Hield. Basically, with this sort of player you're rolling the dice that they can learn to deal with their scoring issues, and Green has them like every prospect does - I would suggest that his biggest issues are that he's trying to play like a much stronger player than he is at present (which means he gets fouled less than he should - he's a skinny speedster, not LeBron, and he needs to play that way) and that he hasn't fully learned how to use his amazing speed to full effect as of yet. Neither of these are unsolvable issues and good coaching will probably put him at least in the near-star range, I think.

3. Sloppy scoring wings who didn't get more efficient as NBA players and consequently sort-of-busted or fully busted: Malachi Richardson, RJ Hunter, Jordan Adams, PJ Hairston, Xavier Henry. I don't think Green ends up being one of these guys - in particular because his floor vision seems to be good enough that he isn't going , but you have to be aware that the risk is definitely there.

To be clear, I'm not anti-Green by any stretch of the imagination. I think he's properly slotted in the top four given his risk/reward profile and I think given the choice between him and one of the next tier down (which, to my mind, includes Kuminga) he's definitely who you take. But the people who love Green seem to have tunnel vision about him and think he's a guaranteed star, and I think he absolutely isn't; he's the riskiest prospect of the top four, because we've seen less of him and his player profile is the highest-variance outcome of the four top guys.

[magoon]

Agreed. By that criteria, Barnes isn’t a ‘dangerous’ playmaker. I guess we’re kind of seeing that in the playoffs with Ben Simmons.

Barnes gets comped a lot to Simmons, but Barnes is a better self-creator than Simmons was or is - he's just a better cutter and driver than Simmons, despite Simmons being a better jumper.

More to the point, Barnes is clearly working on his shot at a level that Simmons never did, trying to get his muscle memory fixed. Barnes is hitting practice threes in strings, and Simmons is missing practice free throws.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Other than Green I don't think there is a Luka or Trae type player in this year's draft that is going to be a great scorer from day one. If there are any of those types of scorers in this draft, they will likely take some time to develop.

luka is unique. Cade is similar but I think he reads the game slightly differently. So expecting him to be as assertive as luka would be wrong as an assumption. Think of Ben simmons with shot creation

[TrueTorontoFan]

Barnes gets comped a lot to Simmons, but Barnes is a better self-creator than Simmons was or is - he's just a better cutter and driver than Simmons, despite Simmons being a better jumper.

More to the point, Barnes is clearly working on his shot at a level that Simmons never did, trying to get his muscle memory fixed. Barnes is hitting practice threes in strings, and Simmons is missing practice free throws.

simmons shoots with the wrong hand.

[TrueTorontoFan]

If it that were that simple Masai would have just signed Lou Williams or Dion Waiters or brought back DeMar or something. There's more to it than that.

I think this passage from Player Development Web says it best:



I've been taking a deep dive on Green of late because his stans are truly fanatical, moreso than for any other prospect out there, and the thing is that his comps are all over the place, in part because G-League stats are incomplete and in part because his sample size is so small - fifteen games just isn't enough to meaningfully assess him. Basically it boils down into three groups:

1. Elite college scorers: Steph, Klay, Beal. This is the dream scenario, obviously, but the reason all of these guys can be comped to Green is because the sample size was so small: basically, he didn't get fouled enough in play for it to meaningfully affect his true shooting percentages, whereas these guys all played enough that it didn't matter how often they were fouled, they were still getting you points either way. Green has a very good free throw percentage in the small sample, to be sure.

2. Sloppier scoring wings in college who got more efficient once they got in the league: Tim Hardaway Jr., Gordon Hayward, Donovan Mitchell, Jeremy Lamb, Buddy Hield, OJ Mayo. All of these guys can play NBA ball to varying degrees - you can get a star like Mitchell or a near-star like Hayward, or you can get a starter-quality-but-not-gonna-be-huge player like THJ or Hield. Basically, with this sort of player you're rolling the dice that they can learn to deal with their scoring issues, and Green has them like every prospect does - I would suggest that his biggest issues are that he's trying to play like a much stronger player than he is at present (which means he gets fouled less than he should - he's a skinny speedster, not LeBron, and he needs to play that way) and that he hasn't fully learned how to use his amazing speed to full effect as of yet. Neither of these are unsolvable issues and good coaching will probably put him at least in the near-star range, I think.

3. Sloppy scoring wings who didn't get more efficient as NBA players and consequently sort-of-busted or fully busted: Malachi Richardson, RJ Hunter, Jordan Adams, PJ Hairston, Xavier Henry. I don't think Green ends up being one of these guys - in particular because his floor vision seems to be good enough that he isn't going , but you have to be aware that the risk is definitely there.

To be clear, I'm not anti-Green by any stretch of the imagination. I think he's properly slotted in the top four given his risk/reward profile and I think given the choice between him and one of the next tier down (which, to my mind, includes Kuminga) he's definitely who you take. But the people who love Green seem to have tunnel vision about him and think he's a guaranteed star, and I think he absolutely isn't; he's the riskiest prospect of the top four, because we've seen less of him and his player profile is the highest-variance outcome of the four top guys.

This is why I think while not picking Green if we are in the #3 pick spot is something we may regret, we wouldn't see that regret come through for years. If we picked suggs we would be VERY happy.

[magoon]

The other thing I'll say about Green is that I'm concerned enough about his risk profile that, if the option is picking him or trading down a bit to get multiple firsts this year, I like the second option much better.

Like: say we get #4 and the draft goes Mobley-Cade-Suggs. At that point, I'm talking to OKC and saying "I'll trade you #4 for #5 and #16" or to Golden State and saying "#4 for #6 and #14" and then hoping to get 2 of Barnes, Keon, Giddey or Bouknight. That option suits me a lot more.

[inthepaint]

If it that were that simple Masai would have just signed Lou Williams or Dion Waiters or brought back DeMar or something. There's more to it than that.

Lou Williams is 34 years old. He's not as quick off the bounce/slashing to the rim, not very athtletic. His career average is 14ppg (as is Dion Waiters) - that's far from an offensive focal point type of player I'm referring to even though offence may be his forte compared to the rest of his game. Neither is Demar (or Dion Waiters)- they're below average 3pt shooters that create spacing issues.

The archetype is elusive, but guys like Jalen Green, Tre Mann and to some extent Bouknight are the ones showing potential early signals, and that's what the Raptors need to go by at this juncture. Is it a guarantee? Of course not, draft is always a crapshoot, but you go by what you can go by. We've had enough "safe players that make very little mistakes". Every team needs those players but we've got plenty of them.

This is not the case for every year but this year I'd rather try to draft the next Beal or Trae Young (even at the risk of getting the next Bruno in the process), then going for a safe Robert Covington, who's good and a valuable pick, but we got plenty of.

[TrueTorontoFan]

The other thing I'll say about Green is that I'm concerned enough about his risk profile that, if the option is picking him or trading down a bit to get multiple firsts this year, I like the second option much better.

Like: say we get #4 and the draft goes Mobley-Cade-Suggs. At that point, I'm talking to OKC and saying "I'll trade you #4 for #5 and #16" or to Golden State and saying "#4 for #6 and #14" and then hoping to get 2 of Barnes, Keon, Giddey or Bouknight. That option suits me a lot more.

if the option is trading down for those specific picks.. yes MUCH better. If the option is the 7th and trading back for the 16th or something no thanks.


but also in that case why not grab kuminga as one of those two.

[magoon]

if the option is trading down for those specific picks.. yes MUCH better. If the option is the 7th and trading back for the 16th or something no thanks.

but also in that case why not grab kuminga as one of those two.

I'm not big on Kuminga at all; I think he's going to bust. I'd rather that a player have at least one elite-level skill already (Barnes has defense, Giddey has passing and court vision, Keon has motor, Bouknight has interior scoring). Kuminga's draw as a prospect is that he MIGHT be elite-level at multiple of these things but hasn't yet demonstrated elite skill at anything. That's a hard pass for me.

[TrueTorontoFan]

I'm not big on Kuminga at all; I think he's going to bust. I'd rather that a player have at least one elite-level skill already (Barnes has defense, Giddey has passing and court vision, Keon has motor, Bouknight has interior scoring). Kuminga's draw as a prospect is that he MIGHT be elite-level at multiple of these things but hasn't yet demonstrated elite skill at anything. That's a hard pass for me.

that's fair.

To me Suggs is the safest pick if we are in the top 3. I actually think Green could very well slide. I would grab Suggs without question and not think twice about it. Good height good compete level. Good defence. Good playmaking. Decent Scoring.

[Kagemusha]

that's fair.

To me Suggs is the safest pick if we are in the top 3. I actually think Green could very well slide. I would grab Suggs without question and not think twice about it. Good height good compete level. Good defence. Good playmaking. Decent Scoring.

Kuminga is OG/ Pascal.
Suggs is Dame.

Let's go for a Dame.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Kuminga is OG/ Pascal.
Suggs is Dame.

Let's go for a Dame.

I agree

[LJ2]

Kuminga is OG/ Pascal.
Suggs is Dame.

Let's go for a Dame.

What do Suggs and Dame have in common? I recall Dame rising on draft boards as footage of him shooting started getting leaked. Suggs isn't a great perimeter shooter right now at least.