Everything Draft 2021

[LJ2]

Raps have their own big board and unlike other drafts they will have access to work out most everyone except Cade the consensus #1. If they use the pick for a player they want to keep it will be based on their own info and not some mock draft. All I want to know is who outside the obvious they are working out.

[magoon]

Suggs and Bouknight look pretty good overall. Should Sharife Cooper be ranked higher? And who is this Max Abmas dude?

Cooper is generally in the high teens or low twenties and that's where he belongs. The offense is good as a point guard - he didn't shoot the three well, but his free throwing is excellent so it's not a matter of a broken shot, he probably just needs to work on his mechanics with NBA shooting coaches. But he's only 6'3" and skinny as hell, and on top of that he was genuinely a bad defender with Auburn. That doesn't mean he can't become at least a replacement-level defender with work, but combine that with the three-point shooting and you have a prospect with two major question marks, so yeah, he's where he should be in most mocks.

Abmas was the sophomore point guard for Oral Roberts and he was the leading scorer in the entire NCAA this past season, and he's a good scorer on multiple levels as well as a capable passer. He's tiny (6'1", and looking at him I'm pretty sure that's a Kyle Lowry six feet, meaning he's probably 5'10" or so) and as a result he gets bullied on defense even though he's not dumb on defense at all. The thing is: small point guards who can score but get bullied on defense have to be unbelievable scorers to have a serious shot in the NBA, or become uncanny defenders (IE, learn to take charges as well as Lowry and flop as well as Chris Paul). The other thing is that Abmas is a remarkably good scorer, so he's at least got a chance. Abmas usually gets mocked as a second-round pick and if we picked him with one of our second-rounders I think that would be great value.

[magoon]

Oh, I would imagine that the plugged in mock drafters are listening to NBA executives and then making their mock drafts. I think that then funnels down to all the low tier mockers and hobbiest. Straight A's Masai doesn't cheat off the guys in the back of the classroom failing the course.

If these mock draft writers were good enough to have the ear of NBA executives they would be on the payroll of NBA teams.

The top tier mock drafters are writing their mock drafts based on who they know the offices like and don't like, and then the Youtube mock drafters are mostly just repeating conventional wisdom; the big boards that are drawn up by more serious scouting groups (hobbyist or semi-pro) are more worthwhile overall since they tend to differentiate a fair amount (but not entirely) from said conventional wisdom.

I subscribed to Chad Ford's Substack for a month until the draft, and he's very open in his writeups about which offices like which player in his mocks and big boards, which lets him write about how he doesn't see player X dropping past draft position B and so forth. Most offices leak like a sieve, so it's generally fairly accurate to a certain extent. As we all know, the Raptors are sealed more tightly than anything.

[magoon]

And since we're talking about Mann: Chad Ford says this about him:

Tre Mann’s lack of length and height (he measured as less than his listed height at Florida) is going to hurt him a bit. He’s not a great athlete, and elite size was a potential way to make up for it. He also refused to do athletic testing at the combine. Mann did, however, have strong interviews. Mann’s humility, authenticity and understanding of the game and where he needs to grow came off as very impressive to teams that interviewed him.

He’s also one of the best shooters in this part of the draft. He’s right on the first-round bubble, with teams like the Hawks, Lakers, Clippers and Sixers as possible destinations in the first round.

Draft range: 20-40

[inthepaint]

And since we're talking about Mann: Chad Ford says this about him:

Not that I want to pick on Chad Ford in particular but a lot of times these guys are way off. I went back to his 2016 mock to see how he did; I chose 2016 because it was also a year we had a lottery pick, and it's also a good 5 years ago, enough time to find out who the players really became.

40% of his mock lottery picks (4 out of 10) are either no longer in the league, or at the very fringe: Kris Dunn, Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender and Henry Ellenson. If we expand to his mock top 15 that year, that gets you ~47% (almost half) of the guys he picked as top a 15 prospect being at edge of the league, or out of it completely. He had Siakam at 45th (curiously, behind where he has Tre Mann this year)

Now, granted, I don't want to single out Chad Ford - that's his day job, his board was probably very similar to many writers and even GM's, and we now have the benefit of hindsight. That said, it goes to show we need more than a grain of salt looking at these "predictions". They're basically educated guesses that are a lot of times way off.

[golden]

Not that I want to pick on Chad Ford in particular but a lot of times these guys are way off. I went back to his 2016 mock to see how he did; I chose 2016 because it was also a year we had a lottery pick, and it's also a good 5 years ago, enough time to find out who the players really became.

40% of his mock lottery picks (4 out of 10) are either no longer in the league, or at the very fringe: Kris Dunn, Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender and Henry Ellenson. If we expand to his mock top 15 that year, that gets you ~47% (almost half) of the guys he picked as top a 15 prospect being at edge of the league, or out of it completely. He had Siakam at 45th (curiously, behind where he has Tre Mann this year)

Now, granted, I don't want to single out Chad Ford - that's his day job, his board was probably very similar to many writers and even GM's, and we now have the benefit of hindsight. That said, it goes to show we need more than a grain of salt looking at these "predictions". They're basically educated guesses that are a lot of times way off.

You are right to pick on Chad Ford. He has a shady history. He got caught changing his draft board years after, to make him look prescient. He didn’t realize there are web tools out there that archive stuff on the internet. Lol.

[magoon]

I'm not holding up Chad Ford as being some wizard of draft prognostication as to player quality; he's really mediocre at that. I'm saying: Chad Ford's mock drafts are based on what front offices are telling him, and he tends to have decent sources in most organizations that aren't the Raptors. If you want to know what the majority of NBA front offices think about the draft - bearing in mind many of them get these things wrong sometimes - Ford is an excellent window into their mindsets.

For the 2016 draft (and I'm looking at the archived copy, not the current page on ESPN), he nailed seven out of fourteen lottery picks, correctly stated that Kris Dunn was Minnesota's preferred lottery pick (although he wasn't sure if Boston would take Dunn or Jaylen Brown, so his mock had Minnesota taking Jamal Murray, their second choice; if he had gone with the Celtics drafting Brown instead he would have gotten ten out of fourteen), and placed another eight players within two slots of where they went in the first round. As mock drafting goes, that's more accurate than most; as the draft progresses the variance in picks increases, after all.

Ford is worth paying attention to because the draft is affected more by front office perceptions of player than the actual quality of those players. NBA execs are as susceptible to groupthink as anybody else, which is why the 2014 NBA draft drama was around Andrew Wiggins versus Jabari Parker rather than Joel Embiid versus Nikola Jokic. And his sourcing is useful: according to him, OKC and Cleveland both have Scottie Barnes ahead of Jalen Suggs on their boards, and OKC has Barnes ahead of Kuminga as well. That's important for us to know if we want to consider trading down.

[TrueTorontoFan]

If someone reaches at 4 and drafts someone outside of the top 10 and that fails, that is not a good look.

Hindsight is a thing, you can look back at all the players that have become stars/superstars and were drafted outside of the lottery, but people don't blame teams for passing on players because usually multiple teams pass on them, Jokic for example was drafted in the 40s, meaning multiple teams passed on him and some twice, it sucks but it doesn't hurt a GM's reputation.

Even though there is always a chance Mann could become a very good player, pretty much everyone agrees Suggs is a consensus top 5 pick. If Masai was actually that interested in Mann, he'd trade down and swap with the team that drafts Mann. Barnes and Kuminga are fine at 4 because they're just outside the top 4, so it isn't much of a reach.

I know part of it is the intrigue of the discussion but again I don't see us trading down. I can see us trading to gain a late first rounder like boucher and the second rounders.


I only see us either keeping the pick or using current and future draft assets to move up.


What would be cool (not likely to happen) would be gaining multiple top 4 picks from this years draft.

[Jclaw]

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days to go....

[Jclaw]

Or, given that this is a draft thread.....



Check out that hustle on the guy from Villanova

[Primer]

I'm not holding up Chad Ford as being some wizard of draft prognostication as to player quality; he's really mediocre at that. I'm saying: Chad Ford's mock drafts are based on what front offices are telling him, and he tends to have decent sources in most organizations that aren't the Raptors. If you want to know what the majority of NBA front offices think about the draft - bearing in mind many of them get these things wrong sometimes - Ford is an excellent window into their mindsets.

For the 2016 draft (and I'm looking at the archived copy, not the current page on ESPN), he nailed seven out of fourteen lottery picks, correctly stated that Kris Dunn was Minnesota's preferred lottery pick (although he wasn't sure if Boston would take Dunn or Jaylen Brown, so his mock had Minnesota taking Jamal Murray, their second choice; if he had gone with the Celtics drafting Brown instead he would have gotten ten out of fourteen), and placed another eight players within two slots of where they went in the first round. As mock drafting goes, that's more accurate than most; as the draft progresses the variance in picks increases, after all.

Ford is worth paying attention to because the draft is affected more by front office perceptions of player than the actual quality of those players. NBA execs are as susceptible to groupthink as anybody else, which is why the 2014 NBA draft drama was around Andrew Wiggins versus Jabari Parker rather than Joel Embiid versus Nikola Jokic. And his sourcing is useful: according to him, OKC and Cleveland both have Scottie Barnes ahead of Jalen Suggs on their boards, and OKC has Barnes ahead of Kuminga as well. That's important for us to know if we want to consider trading down.

This is the correct analysis. Saying Ford isn't good because the order he listed isn't the best possible 5 years later is judging him based on something he is not doing. He's predicting who teams will pick based on insider info. He's not saying this player will be better 5 years from now than the next guy on my list.

[magoon]

I know part of it is the intrigue of the discussion but again I don't see us trading down. I can see us trading to gain a late first rounder like boucher and the second rounders.

There are scenarios where I can see us trading down - the most obvious one is where Cleveland does a Cleveland and drafts either Barnes or Kuminga at 3, leaving two of Mobley, Green and Suggs on the table at 4. At that point, I could easily see Masai turning to Orlando and saying "if you want the one you want, you need to trade us 5 and 8, that's the price for not getting our leftovers, which will be the one you want less." Because I think getting the last of those three players plus an additional lottery pick is worth more than simply getting our second choice of them.

[MixxAOR]

Underrated part of Jalen Suggs game is his rebounding. 5.3 rebounds in college. I can envision him rebounding and pushing the break with Siakam streaking with OG and FVV filling the wings.

[golden]

Aaron Wiggins?

Mike Whitaker confirmed Aaron had two workouts before the July 7th deadline, with the Toronto Raptors on Monday, July 5th, and the Phoenix Suns; which would give him eight workouts so far, in the Pre-Draft process

https://www.localdvm.com/sports/aaro...the-nba-draft/


Tyson Etienne?

Etienne has now worked out for four teams — the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors — with three more workouts scheduled with the Brooklyn Nets (on Friday), Toronto Raptors (July 5) and Phoenix Suns (July 6)

https://www.kansas.com/sports/colleg...252465533.html


Jose Alvarado?

Alvarado has traveled across the country to work out for scouts and coaches. The itinerary has included Milwaukee, Memphis, New York and Golden State. That’ll be followed by Utah, New Orleans, Phoenix, Toronto and Dallas.

https://www.ajc.com/sports/georgia-t...J4EUFCNFW3EZ4/

[LJ2]

There are scenarios where I can see us trading down - the most obvious one is where Cleveland does a Cleveland and drafts either Barnes or Kuminga at 3, leaving two of Mobley, Green and Suggs on the table at 4. At that point, I could easily see Masai turning to Orlando and saying "if you want the one you want, you need to trade us 5 and 8, that's the price for not getting our leftovers, which will be the one you want less." Because I think getting the last of those three players plus an additional lottery pick is worth more than simply getting our second choice of them.

I just don't see any reason for Orlando to do this, as they are in a complete rebuild mode so more picks the better for them. One draft spot higher shouldn't be enough for them to make a move like that.