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  • #31
    DanH wrote: View Post
    Never too early for a draft thread!

    But we shouldn't waste our time posting guys projected to go in the lottery unless we are hoping for an OG-esque slip to where we will draft (20+).
    Why not? We're on pace to be making a pick in the lottery at the moment. With no playable depth behind Boucher at C and a host of young players getting their first real taste of pt it doesn't look like there will be an immediate change in direction for this team.

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    • #32
      LJ2 wrote: View Post

      Why not? We're on pace to be making a pick in the lottery at the moment. With no playable depth behind Boucher at C and a host of young players getting their first real taste of pt it doesn't look like there will be an immediate change in direction for this team.
      We are not on pace to be making a pick in the lottery unless you ignore recent trends and point differential being more predictive of future play than record. We have the point differential of a .500 team, and if nothing improves that's about where we'll end up. But there is little reason to believe nothing will improve.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • #33
        DanH wrote: View Post
        Never too early for a draft thread!

        But we shouldn't waste our time posting guys projected to go in the lottery unless we are hoping for an OG-esque slip to where we will draft (20+).
        I think the idea is to tank hard by trading Kyle for picks

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        • #34
          Kagemusha wrote: View Post

          I think the idea is to tank hard by trading Kyle for picks
          Right, and if they do so they end up in like 10th in the East. If they don't they probably land 6th, maybe 7th. None of those results are ideal.

          Now, if they really want to tank, and they trade Lowry AND Powell AND Boucher (that one's kind of key, forces them to play Baynes/Len), they could maybe get to the basement.

          Point being, until they do that, this thread probably shouldn't focus too much on the top end of the draft. Not on the strength of the current record.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • #35
            DanH wrote: View Post

            Right, and if they do so they end up in like 10th in the East. If they don't they probably land 6th, maybe 7th. None of those results are ideal.

            Now, if they really want to tank, and they trade Lowry AND Powell AND Boucher (that one's kind of key, forces them to play Baynes/Len), they could maybe get to the basement.

            Point being, until they do that, this thread probably shouldn't focus too much on the top end of the draft. Not on the strength of the current record.
            In fairness 7th in terms of record only drops your expected draft selection going into the lottery by 2.5 spots compared to the team with the worst record. I'm not partial to trading Lowry, but totally bottoming out makes even less sense. Expected selection for bottom 4 teams is all about 4th, so you likely miss out on any can't miss guy and now you have no team to help the rookie develop - a lot less meaningful minutes, accountability, etc. With a shortened covid season, there is so much uncertainty in teams record - even last year Cleveland (the second worst team) was just 5 wins away from the bubble - so may as well stay the course even if the Ls keep coming.

            In any event, trading just for a worse record is a bad idea, the long-term value has to be there.

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            • #36
              We're back in "Wait&See" mode which is a totally fine place to be. Last time DeMar and Kyle and co turned it around and it worked out all the way to a championship. But the League is weird this year, it can also go the other way - with injuries, etc. - and then Masai can pile onto early struggles by trading Kyle and other vets for youngsters, or maybe finding a way to sit him with injuries.

              We are way too good to hit the top 5 without some extreme (bad) luck and tactics. Early days.

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              • #37
                SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                We're back in "Wait&See" mode which is a totally fine place to be. Last time DeMar and Kyle and co turned it around and it worked out all the way to a championship. But the League is weird this year, it can also go the other way - with injuries, etc. - and then Masai can pile onto early struggles by trading Kyle and other vets for youngsters, or maybe finding a way to sit him with injuries.

                We are way too good to hit the top 5 without some extreme (bad) luck and tactics. Early days.
                Raptors already have a ton of bad luck, 2-8 but stats show they should be a middle of the pack team, not worst in the league. At some point that bad luck should balance out. Although I wouldn't have expected Raptors to be 2-8 at this point, so who knows maybe the bad luck continues and we get a top 5 pick without having to trade anyone and go back to being competitive next season.

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                • #38
                  DanH wrote: View Post
                  Never too early for a draft thread!

                  But we shouldn't waste our time posting guys projected to go in the lottery unless we are hoping for an OG-esque slip to where we will draft (20+).
                  We've played 10 games (2-8), 18 games would represent 25% of the season played.

                  Our next 8 are against:
                  Hornets
                  Hornets
                  Mavericks
                  Heat
                  Heat
                  Pacers
                  Pacers
                  Bucks

                  25% of the season is a pretty good sample. What losing record to start the year is necessary before we can talk about the lottery? 6-12? 5-13? 4-14?

                  I'm assuming we'll play the next 8 games with Lowry. If after 18 games we trade Lowry for a pick and/or youth with upside, with 75% of the season remaining, you better believe we are a lottery team.

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                  • #39
                    A.I wrote: View Post

                    Raptors already have a ton of bad luck, 2-8 but stats show they should be a middle of the pack team, not worst in the league. At some point that bad luck should balance out. Although I wouldn't have expected Raptors to be 2-8 at this point, so who knows maybe the bad luck continues and we get a top 5 pick without having to trade anyone and go back to being competitive next season.
                    Yeah I mean bad luck and then you potentially add injuries to the mix. Fred or Kyle's back flairs up. OG or Bouch get hurt and we could really rack up the loses.

                    They had a lot of bad injury luck last year, but the health is always a concern. Couple that with no fans and I say maybe being bad in this shorten season isn't so bad.

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                    • #40
                      big boi wrote: View Post

                      We've played 10 games (2-8), 18 games would represent 25% of the season played.

                      Our next 8 are against:
                      Hornets
                      Hornets
                      Mavericks
                      Heat
                      Heat
                      Pacers
                      Pacers
                      Bucks

                      25% of the season is a pretty good sample. What losing record to start the year is necessary before we can talk about the lottery? 6-12? 5-13? 4-14?

                      I'm assuming we'll play the next 8 games with Lowry. If after 18 games we trade Lowry for a pick and/or youth with upside, with 75% of the season remaining, you better believe we are a lottery team.
                      Most likely split the next 8, so we’ll be looking at a 6-12 record after 18 games.

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                      • #41
                        Even without Lowry this team is not a bottom 5 team despite what it looks like now. I think Siakam and Fred with Nurse is just too good to give up and quit. Would have to shut down one or both of Siakam and Fred with some injury and just take their sweet time to get back.. like Curry did last year with GSW.

                        2-8 or 6-12 looks bleak, but could get to .500 pretty quickly. Teams less than .500 make the playoffs in the East. Last year, Brooklyn had a .486 record and was the 7th seed. I'd hate to be the top seeded team facing the Raptor team post trade deadline. We'll probably flip Norm and Baynes/McCaw or something for a better C. Then we become the team we were last season. With a full season of bubble play for Pascal to get used to.

                        Masai doesn't want to be stuck in a 7-11 seed, but this season is weird.. he might be okay with it and come back stronger next year.

                        Either way I would be looking at the 15-16-17-18 draft slot as that is where we will be picking. Not in the top 5.

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                        • #42
                          Another thing I forgot is covid. Florida is a disaster and while I hope the team stays healthy. A few scares or close contacts require quarantines.

                          Team isn't going to do much this year anyways. Enjoy the weather, develop the kids and enjoy the pick.

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                          • #43
                            Mitchell Duong wrote: View Post
                            Team isn't going to do much this year anyways. Enjoy the weather, develop the kids and enjoy the pick.
                            Are you talking about the Raptors, or all of us waiting on a COVID vaccine?

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                            • #44
                              big boi wrote: View Post

                              We've played 10 games (2-8), 18 games would represent 25% of the season played.

                              Our next 8 are against:
                              Hornets
                              Hornets
                              Mavericks
                              Heat
                              Heat
                              Pacers
                              Pacers
                              Bucks

                              25% of the season is a pretty good sample. What losing record to start the year is necessary before we can talk about the lottery? 6-12? 5-13? 4-14?

                              I'm assuming we'll play the next 8 games with Lowry. If after 18 games we trade Lowry for a pick and/or youth with upside, with 75% of the season remaining, you better believe we are a lottery team.
                              I can see a lot of L's on these next 8 games. Heat, Pacers and Hornets will most likely win at least 1 of their double headers, possibly both. Mavs and bucks also have L's written all over it.

                              It's very plausible that at 25% mark we're in a position that screams tank. If recent history is any guide though, they'll probably hang on to Lowry for dear life as a security blanket, and he'll either re-sign on a smaller deal (keeping us in the middle, further from the bottom but nowhere near the top), or, walk in free agency to a contender and be the 5th rotation champion we lose with nothing in return.

                              They should try to avoid these 2 scenarios while Lowry is a valuable, win-now vet on an attractive expiring deal, coveted by contenders. Recent precedent is not pointing to that though.
                              Last edited by inthepaint; Thu Jan 14, 2021, 12:15 AM.
                              2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                              • #45
                                No significant incentive in making the playoffs this year really.
                                Just go hard for the top 3-5 pick and continue to develop our young core.

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