Everything Draft 2021

[grindhouse]

I will bet money on giddey

[grindhouse]

my second round picks

[Puffer]

Thanks for digging those up.

[grindhouse]

Thanks for digging those up.

No problem he is some more centres

I could see neemias becoming even stronger

[magoon]

I like Moses Moody if we're picking in the 5-10 range. He's 18 (turning 19 on May 31).. is a large SG/wing (6'6) and has good analytics. 18th best in college in WS.. and we use that advanced stat a lot. Flynn lead the league in 2020, Delon was always high (2nd or 4th IIRC) in his last two years. Pascal, Fred, Poeltl all had great WS. Even Norm did too. OG did not (his highest was 1.7) but most of that was due to his injury.

Lead his team in WS despite being a freshman. And they got to the big 8. Not a great tourney and is still raw.. but DeMar was as well and he turned into a great pro.

Win shares tend to be a dicey mechanic because they are partially dependent on team success and don't necessarily link to overall play ability. Like, the top 10 win shares players last year - yes, Malachi is first. Obi Toppin in seventh, and he looks promising. Payton Pritchard eighth and he's had some good minutes for Boston, definitely. But Sam Merrill (second) - he went straight to the G-League after being drafted and looks like just a guy. Carlik Jones (third) went from Radford to Louisville and saw his win shares drop in half, because even though he was on a better team he was also in a more competitive conference. Jonah Radebaugh (fourth) went straight to Europe despite being the Big Sky DPOY and an all-conference first team player. Jordan Ford (fifth) was an all-conference player as well and he's playing in Greece. Terry Taylor (sixth) declared for the draft but went undrafted and went back to school - he's tenth overall this year and probably won't be drafted this year either.

(Also, "made it deep into March Madness" is a silly stat. Davion Mitchell is going to go probably a lot higher than he should because of it.)

Basically, win shares can sort of confirm that a player is good, but they're a contextual clue rather than a guarantee. Moody has great winshares, but his box plus-minus is one of the weakest in the top 20, and BPM is arguably an even more important advanced stat than winshares are. (Malachi's BPM was a ridiculous 11.7 in his final year; Moody's is 7.4, second-lowest in the top 20 prospects after Ziaire Williams.) And BPM doesn't prove anything by itself either! Marvin Bagley III's BPM was 10.8! That's why scouting is hard.

[Primer]

I've been looking at some mocks and it seems top 5 is all the same guys then it's all over the place. I don't see a big drop off in talent so I'm not sure why that top 5 is so locked in. Is this just lazy mocks? NBA draft net hasn't updated any player profiles since 2019 so it's pretty much garbage from a research standpoint. Who are the real must take guys that absolutely should be in the top 5?

[planetmars]

I've been looking at some mocks and it seems top 5 is all the same guys then it's all over the place. I don't see a big drop off in talent so I'm not sure why that top 5 is so locked in. Is this just lazy mocks? NBA draft net hasn't updated any player profiles since 2019 so it's pretty much garbage from a research standpoint. Who are the real must take guys that absolutely should be in the top 5?

The big four in some order are always Cade, Mobley, Suggs and Green.

Cade reminds people of Simmons, but has the ability to score from the outside (not great, but has that ability). Mobley is that defensive big that can also shoot from the outside. The unicorn center that most people would love to have. Suggs was the best player for the best team (until they lost in the finals) in college. Jalen Green played in the G-league, and looks like that prototypical athletic wing player that most people drool over. A 6-6 guard/wing that can create his own shot and can be lightning quick off the bounce.

Kuminga is usually the 5th best player.. not good enough for the top 4.. but probably better than the rest due to his potential. The Kuminga attraction to Raptor fans is that he's from Africa and has a little OG/Pascal in him. Really strong defensive instincts. He was on Green's team in the G-league and his stats don't pop out so looks underwhelming. You pick him for what he could become and not for what he is now.

My personal order of the top 5 goes: Cade, Green, Suggs, Mobley, Kuminga.

Then it sort of drops from there.

After that it's a mix of different guys. Some could be great. Some could be busts. Many with flaws. I like Moody but I could be convinced otherwise. He's the youngest of the "rest" and played a 3&D role in college.

Ultimately I have full faith in Tolzman and Masai to find a guy. They always hit home runs.. outside of Bruno (which even in hindsight was an understandable draft pick). So I'm sure they'll find someone great. Even if it's a guy like Corey Kispert who looks like a role player like JJ Redick.


I think this is the year to try and nail a top 4 pick because of who's in that top 4 compared to the rest of the class.. but we usually say this every year.. and there are always 1 or 2 guys in every draft class that busts in the top 4/5.

[magoon]

Suggs wasn't just the best player on Gonzaga - he's an excellent defender and is arguably the best pure passer in the draft. The only reason he isn't contending for first in most mock drafts is because his three doesn't look NBA-reliable yet (his form is fine but his release is slow when he shoots off the dribble) and the current game requires point guards to be able to shoot threes.

Realistically, Green makes top four in most drafts because there are a lot of promising wings in this draft and he played in the G-League, which means he was playing against tougher competition than all of the college players and most of the internationals. That doesn't mean he'll end up being the best player or even the best wing in this draft - he's a poor defender like many scoring-focused wings, and he's definitely got loose handles for someone who likes creating their own shot - but it does mean the bust likelihood for him is much lower than it is for a lot of the other. Like, worst case scenario, he's probably Tyreke Evans or Dion Waiters, a walking bucket who might have all sorts of issues as a starter but will be a reliable sixth man in the league for years. Best-case scenario, he's Demar with a reliable three-shot.

Kuminga screams out bust to me. He can't shoot, isn't particularly comfortable driving to the rim, he's a poor defender and his BBIQ looks weak as all hell. "If he learns to play basketball really well he'll be incredibly good" isn't a great argument for drafting him. He's far more of a project than Mobley is, and Mobley is definitely a project. But in terms of athletic fundamentals he's off the charts compared to everybody beneath him and frankly most of the guys over him.

After that, everybody has clear and obvious flaws in their game, and teams are doing the usual: trying to figure out which of those flaws can be corrected, because if they can be fixed they'll be stars. Keon Johnson is a KCP-style shooting guard who can't shoot the three; if he learns how to shoot the three reliably, he's probably a star player because he can defend and he's super-fast and he's likely going to be a threat going to the rim. Corey Kispert probably isn't a star player and probably won't be one, but he's almost certainly going to be a solid 3-and-D wing for years in the NBA and everybody wants those because they fit onto any team all the time; Franz Wagner is much the same. Kai Jones has the athleticism to be a dominant big and he's a good defender, but his offense is a major work in progress. Moses Moody plays too much in the midrange and finishes below the rim, which is awful for someone his size, but if you can fix those things he'll be great. Scottie Barnes is probably the best defender in the lottery and has elite rebounding and playmaking skills to go with them, but his offense is flawed in many ways and he knows it, which is part of the reason he's become such a good passer. Jalen Johnson is more comfortable initiating offense than Barnes is, but he's about as effective and his defense is worse. Et cetera.

[LJ2]

I've been looking at some mocks and it seems top 5 is all the same guys then it's all over the place. I don't see a big drop off in talent so I'm not sure why that top 5 is so locked in. Is this just lazy mocks? NBA draft net hasn't updated any player profiles since 2019 so it's pretty much garbage from a research standpoint. Who are the real must take guys that absolutely should be in the top 5?

Like most drafts there are a coupe of guys at the top with the least flaws or holes in their games and then there is everyone else. Cade, Suggs and Mobley have the least then there's Jalen Green who has a tremendous ceiling but could end up only ever being as good as Gerald Green.

I'm not concerned about who the Raps pick whether it's in the top 10 or they trade down. They've proven to be better than most teams at projecting how a player turns out and what said player needs to get there. There are a bunch of players expected to go in the late lottery which I like.

[Demographic Shift]

Its a smaller stint.. but Green has somewhat followed the Doncic path. He has spent more time playing against the men in a professional league vs the college guys Suggs and Cunningham.

Its still early on who becomes the consenus number 1 but to me anyway Green is in that tier.

[SkywalkerAC]

I'm getting pretty high on Barnes - could come in and be our backup PF as a rookie. Could probably close games as a small ball 5. Fits with the 2-way defense-into-transition positionless-basketball ideal we are after. Passion and passing and defense and length and athleticism fit the bill as wel.

[chris]

Its a smaller stint.. but Green has somewhat followed the Doncic path. He has spent more time playing against the men in a professional league vs the college guys Suggs and Cunningham.

Its still early on who becomes the consenus number 1 but to me anyway Green is in that tier.

sure they're all grown men but luka was MVP of the 2nd best league in the world, not sure that's the right comparison.

and while they didn't play against grown men, suggs and cunningham did play under much greater pressure for far higher stakes, considering college ball is a billion dollar industry

[planetmars]

I'm intrigued by Neemias Queta. Tankathon's mock has him going first in the second round. Wonder if we could package our two 2RP's to move up and get him? Or reach to get him with the FRP if we pick outside of the top 4.

He's an analytical darling.. 7 foot center that reminds me a lot of Clint Capela (from the way he plays):

Can't shoot though and is on the older side (will be 22 in July).

[SkywalkerAC]

While Sengun's overall defense remains a question mark (in my mind at least) he looks pretty mobile on some of these blocks, like the chasedown one. He's probably not going to rise up from the weakside to meet a shot at its apex but seems pretty decent at contesting early from his standing position, and moving pretty well to contest - might work with our chase-out D.

[LJ2]

I'm intrigued by Neemias Queta. Tankathon's mock has him going first in the second round. Wonder if we could package our two 2RP's to move up and get him? Or reach to get him with the FRP if we pick outside of the top 4.

He's an analytical darling.. 7 foot center that reminds me a lot of Clint Capela (from the way he plays):

Can't shoot though and is on the older side (will be 22 in July).

He's definitely the tallest player in the Mountain West Conference, or at least that is what I got from the highlights

Do we have two SRP's or three? Did we trade our own away at some point?