Everything Draft 2021

[G__Deane]

If I understand correctly the Raps (scouting and some management) aren't leaving Tampa until after the draft workout process. So they'll have unobstructed access to players and not have to deal with customs and guys not having their passports in order...things they may have run into in normal years. I expect no stone to be left unturned in their scouting process and think we end up with a really good player.

Me too. I just don't expect whoever we pick @ around 7 to be markedly better than the top 6 unless there is a bust in there. Who we pick at 20th 30th 40th is where we find gems that should have fell higher than their draft slot. But they are serviceable players there, not game changers.

[Rudy Bargnani]

Here was my big board on May 18th (top 10 guys in the draft):

1. Cade
2. Suggs
3. Green
4. Mobley
5. Kuminga
6. Moody
7. Johnson (Keon)
8. Bouknight
9. Barnes
10. Sengun


Coming out with a new top 10 after spending a lot of my day watching various videos (mostly highlight reels lol).

1. Cade
2. Suggs
3. Green
4. Mobley
5. Moody
6. Wagner
7. Kuminga
8. Bouknight
9. Johnson (Keon)
10. Sengun

I am a bit scared to death of Kuminga. Has a lot of potential. Good handles, but just has no polish to his game. That is fixable but still a risk. I just think he may have too many weaknesses. So I'm taking the stability in either Moody or (Wagner - surprise) ahead of him. Franz Wagner is an underrated defender (I think he's really good actually), and just has that elite 3&D potential to his game that I'd love to see on this team. I didn't have him in my top 10 a week ago, but he's already jumped to 6. Lol. I'll probably change my mind again in a week.

I also came to the conclusion that I don't want Scottie Barnes at all. So I took him off my top 10. Just feel he's going to be the big bust of this draft class. I just don't think his shot is correctable, and if we play him we'll be playing 4vs5 on offense. And we have trouble scoring as it is at times. He's a good passer, but that means he needs the ball. I'd rather give the ball to Fred, Pascal, OG or Malachi.

It's a toss up between Keon and Bouknight. One looks like a great defender, the other a great scorer. I think Bouknight could become a better defender than Keon can learn to score/shoot though. So I've flipped positions for the two. Sengun looks like a Sabonis clone. And that's a safe bet at 10.

I'd take all these guys over Mitchell or Springer too (for now).

What do you think of Davion Mitchell. Not in your top 10. Seems like a raptors kind of guy. Defensive player of the year and decent 3 point shooter

[planetmars]

What do you think of Davion Mitchell. Not in your top 10. Seems like a raptors kind of guy. Defensive player of the year and decent 3 point shooter

I like him a lot.. but he's older. He's already 22, and will be 23 in December. He didn't have a great freshman or sophomore year in college either. And he's also shorter.. like 6'1.

If we got the #1 pick, and didn't want Cade.. We could trade down with Orlando for say #4 and #10 (Chicago's pick goes to them if they are not in the top 4). Then I'd be fine with Mitchell as that second pick. But since this likely will be our only lottery pick for some time, I'd rather get a guy with some more potential. That's also why I'm higher on Moody than most fans are.

But I could see the Raps looking at him because they don't typically care about age. He's a 2 way player and would be a good long term option if Lowry is gone. I'd rather get a guy with some length and youth though.

[A.I]

I like him a lot.. but he's older. He's already 22, and will be 23 in December. He didn't have a great freshman or sophomore year in college either. And he's also shorter.. like 6'1.

If we got the #1 pick, and didn't want Cade.. We could trade down with Orlando for say #4 and #10 (Chicago's pick goes to them if they are not in the top 4). Then I'd be fine with Mitchell as that second pick. But since this likely will be our only lottery pick for some time, I'd rather get a guy with some more potential. That's also why I'm higher on Moody than most fans are.

But I could see the Raps looking at him because they don't typically care about age. He's a 2 way player and would be a good long term option if Lowry is gone. I'd rather get a guy with some length and youth though.

Agreed. Raptors have drafted or signed a ton of rookies who were 22 years old over the years. Pascal, Fred, Norm and Flynn. Its fun being excited about a 19 year old with potential.

[LJ2]

I'm trying to wrap my head around what exactly is the difference ...in terms of potential...there is between a 19 year old or a 22 year old coming into the NBA. It's not like the player stops developing at exactly x number of years.

[planetmars]

I'm trying to wrap my head around what exactly is the difference ...in terms of potential...there is between a 19 year old or a 22 year old coming into the NBA. It's not like the player stops developing at exactly x number of years.

It may not matter much. Lillard was a 4 year grad. Duncan was a 4 year grad too. But I believe younger players are more prone to develop better than older players as they have a longer time learning the pro game.

I found this old article (from 2011) that studied this and showed that older players tend to do worse than younger players:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ting-prospects

I'd be curious if those stats hold 10 years later though.

[Kagemusha]

This is where background checks and interviews plays a big factor.
Many of our players come from the Bet On Myself league. Those that were neglected and rejected. Those who are hungry and motivated to prove that they belong.
I choose players with lesser talents but strong character
over talented players but are weak..
anytime.

[magoon]

What do you think of Davion Mitchell. Not in your top 10. Seems like a raptors kind of guy. Defensive player of the year and decent 3 point shooter

Is he? Three years in college, and only in the last year has he shot the three well - and his free throw shooting didn't improve at the same time (he only shot 64% on free throws last year). That last thing is a huge red flag for me that his overall shooting form hasn't improved and he just had an outlier year from three. Without the shooting, he's an undersized point guard who plays good defense, and those guys tend not to last in the NBA.

[Puffer]

It may not matter much. Lillard was a 4 year grad. Duncan was a 4 year grad too. But I believe younger players are more prone to develop better than older players as they have a longer time learning the pro game.

I found this old article (from 2011) that studied this and showed that older players tend to do worse than younger players:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ting-prospects

I'd be curious if those stats hold 10 years later though.

Great article. The sort of thing I'd expect to see from DanH. But it seems to be logical. The amount that an 18 year old is going to improve over his first four years of NBA life should certainly exceed the amount a 24 year old will improve. Of course, I think what kind of an organization they get integrated into makes a difference. Different offences and defences can somewhat cover or expose a players strengths or weaknesses and the existing developmental opportunities a player is given are bound to impact win shares.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Great article. The sort of thing I'd expect to see from DanH. But it seems to be logical. The amount that an 18 year old is going to improve over his first four years of NBA life should certainly exceed the amount a 24 year old will improve. Of course, I think what kind of an organization they get integrated into makes a difference. Different offences and defences can somewhat cover or expose a players strengths or weaknesses and the existing developmental opportunities a player is given are bound to impact win shares.

Which makes sense your body is still maturing even from a muscular standpoint and skeletal stand point at a younger age. This is why Giddey or Springer I'd be ok with. I don't really want Sengun or Kai Jones.

[A.I]

I'm trying to wrap my head around what exactly is the difference ...in terms of potential...there is between a 19 year old or a 22 year old coming into the NBA. It's not like the player stops developing at exactly x number of years.

It does change the development trajectory. A 22 year old has 3 extra years of basketball knowledge in college, so they will likely be more prepared and ready for the NBA, but a 19 year who jumps into the NBA will have 3 more years of NBA experience when he is 22.

In general, 19 year olds probably have more bust potential, a lower floor and a higher ceiling. 22 year olds are less likely to be a bust, has a higher floor and a lower ceiling.

[golden]

Which makes sense your body is still maturing even from a muscular standpoint and skeletal stand point at a younger age. This is why Giddey or Springer I'd be ok with. I don't really want Sengun or Kai Jones.

Exactly. Jalen Green is only 180lbs on a 6-6 frame, which makes it even more impressive what he was able to do in the G-League, straight out of high school vs. hungry pros. That basically speaks to his innate talent, work ethic and compete level. Small sample size, but he took that to another level in their playoff game.

[big boi]

Agreed. Raptors have drafted or signed a ton of rookies who were 22 years old over the years. Pascal, Fred, Norm and Flynn. Its fun being excited about a 19 year old with potential.

Mitchell would come in and produce and help the team on day one. Some of the other guys forecast to go 7-10 would more likely be long term projects. Not saying I'm not up for a project named Keon Johnson or Scottie Barnes, but there is value in a team like the raptors having someone hit the ground running and move the needle. I think it's likely that outside of the top 3, Mitchell is the most ready to contribute now. That's why I'm excited by this draft, because given current mocks, if Davion Mitchell is the consolation prize at 7-10, sign me up. I think he'd quickly become a fan favourite. That kind of energy and toughness, speed, athleticism, defense and he shoots the 3 very well. Also I suspect relatively mature.

[inthepaint]

Mitchell is alright but he's a 6'2" PG that will be close to 23 when the season starts. We just drafted a 6'1" 22yr old PG last year.

We also still have other two 6'0" PG's that will start in the backcourt as long as they're on the team, and a thin frontcourt.

If we're out of the top 5 and they want to pick someone who's 22 I'd rather go for a wing shooter like Kispert, or another wing like Wagner, Keon Johnson or Barnes.

[The Great One]

My new 10:

1. Green
2. Suggs
3. Cade
4. Mobley
5. Kuminga
6. Keon
7. Moody
8. Mitchell
9. Barnes
10. Giddey

Nothing's really changed much other than 9 and 10. Barnes is now 9 and Giddey 10..

Keon, Moody, Barnes and Mitchell are all Raptors type of players. I still think one of them will be a Raptor by July or whenever the draft is. Mitchell is a hell of a player. I don't really understand the criticism. He's like a Marcus Smart who can shoot and create his own shot.

Definitely no to Wagner or Kispert. This is a deep draft guys. Both guys project to be role players/specialist. The Raptors are drafting in the top 8 not in the mid teens.