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Everything Draft 2021
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MixxAOR wrote: View Post
Pretty much science at this point
https://towardsdatascience.com/what-...a-2c5fe228cd67
https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what...k-2d113d6b82e5
The HOF chart covers 1950-1995. That 1995 cutoff was actually necessary because it takes so many years after retirement to get inducted into the HOF. That chart shows that by the last lotto pick you're down to a 2.2% chance of getting a franchise altering player, and that is much closer to the reality the all star chart would show if it also went all the way back to 1950.
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If you have time (I know I do with Covid) watch some full games of these guys. I’ve watched three of Moody’s games so far. It’s actually quite impressive what he was able to achieve with his usage and role. If Arkansas actually featured this kid and put the ball in his hands more I think his draft stock would be much higher. It’s actually frustrating to watch. Specifically the OSU game... you can watch Cade and Moody play
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saints91 wrote: View PostMy next player to watch is Barnes, I’m don’t get the intrigue, so I’m going to do a deep dive.
- exceptional defense and rebounding
- very good BBIQ
- strong cutting and driving ability
- a remarkable ability to pass through traffic
- above-average motor and a strong hustle ethic
- a nice floater which he absolutely over-relies upon for the bulk of his offense
- a shot mechanic which, ahem, needs a lotta work
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https://www.si.com/nba/raptors/news/...2021-nba-draft
Noteworthy. I'm not saying the Raptors have their guy, but this is a lot of interest they're showing in Giddey (who I like a lot).
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Primer wrote: View Post
While I agree it is science at this point this sample size for the all star chart doesn't start until 1989 draft. That arbitrary cutoff (when they added a 2nd round) makes the sample size way too small and cuts out a ton of great franchise changing players that were taken in the 1st and made many All Star games. 1984 draft anyone?
The HOF chart covers 1950-1995. That 1995 cutoff was actually necessary because it takes so many years after retirement to get inducted into the HOF. That chart shows that by the last lotto pick you're down to a 2.2% chance of getting a franchise altering player, and that is much closer to the reality the all star chart would show if it also went all the way back to 1950.
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The Great One wrote: View Post
I'm not drafting a C in the 1st round specially in the top 10 UNLESS that C is a generational talent like a Hakeem or a Shaq. The Raptors have 2 2nd round picks this year, they should use one of them to draft a C.
It's looking more and more likely that this team will be picking in the 7-9 range, there's a lot of great wingers/guards in this draft. I'd be happy with one of Mitchell/Keon/Giddey/Moody.
As for BPA, BPA is purely subjective. There's a consensus top 5 in this draft. My BPA after the top 5 is Keon.
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I like Barnes. Gives us major depth and a novel skill set on a team that can not penetrate consistently and creates the potential for a monster wing rotation down the line. His playmaking alone would help Fred, OG, Pascal, and Gary specifically get open shots.
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Now that we've essentially locked up getting a top 10 pick, let's take a look at who mocks think goes in the top 10.
Here are the 8 mocks I looked at: ESPN, The Athletic, nbadraft.net, tankathon, yardbarker, nbcsports, bleacherreport, cbssports.
I'll list where each player went in all these mocks in that order. Every player appeared in at least one mocks top 10 picks.
1.) Cade Cunningham, 6'8" 220 lbs PG [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1] Avg = 1
2.) Evan Mobley, 7'0" 215 lbs C [2, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 3] Avg = 2.75
3.) Jalen Suggs, 6'4" 205 lbs SG/PG [3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 2] Avg = 2.75
4.) Jalen Green, 6'6" 186 lbs SG [4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 4] Avg = 3.75
5.) Jonathan Kuminga, 6'8" 220 lbs PF/SF [5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5] Avg = 5
6.) Keon Johnson, 6'5" 186 lbs SG [6, 7, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 10] Avg = 7.13
7.) Scottie Barnes, 6'9" 227 lbs SF/PF [10, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 7] Avg = 7.13
8.) Davion Mitchell, 6'2" 205 lbs PG/SG [8, 9, 9, 10, 8, 17, 9, 6] Avg = 9.5
9.) Moses Moody, 6'6" 205 lbs SG [21, 8, 7, 11, 20, 9, 10, 9] Avg = 11.88
10.) Corey Kispert, 6'7" 220 lbs SF [12, 20, 10, 9, 11, 10, 11, 17] Avg = 12.5
11.) Franz Wagner, 6'9" 220 lbs SF [9, 11, 15, 14, 10, 13, 12, 21] Avg = 13.13
12.) Jalen Johnson, 6'9" 220 lbs SF/PF [7, 18, 22, 7, 9, 18, 7, 24] Avg = 14
13.) James Bouknight, 6'5" 190 lbs SG [20, 13, 17, 12, 12, 8, 23, 8] Avg = 14.13
14.) Josh Giddey, 6'8" 205 lbs SG/PG [13, 10, 13, 16, 24, 22, 16, 23] Avg = 17.13
The top 5 players seems to be a consensus, although not their exact order beyond Cade at 1 and Kuminga at 5.
There are 7 players that every mock agrees should go top 10, and Davion Mitchell just missed that cut by one mock putting him outside the top 10.
Jalen Johnson seems to be the most polarizing pick with half the mocks saying he's top 10 and half saying he shouldn't go before 18.
I don't see any reason we can't go BPA no matter where we pick, we could fit in any of these players into meaningful minutes next year.
Don't have any insights beyond that but this list should be useful for discussing who we could end up with.Last edited by Primer; Sat May 8, 2021, 05:24 PM.
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Since we're rumored to be interested in Giddey here is what the Athletic (10th pick) had to say about him:
Few players have as much momentum up the board right now as Giddey. He posted back-to-back triple-doubles in the Australian NBL last week, showcasing his extremely high-level feel for the game. He’s one of the smartest players in the draft, especially for a teenager (18 years old). He has an innate understanding of where and how to get his teammates the ball in advantageous positions. That’s his key skill. At 6-8 without elite athleticism, Giddey is more a secondary playmaker in the vein of a Joe Ingles as opposed to a primary point guard. But he should be able to make plays out of ball screens. The keys here will be shooting and an emphasis on defensive fundamentals. He needs to stay lower in his defensive stance. The jumper should improve in time, as nothing is broken mechanically.
Makes a lot of sense for the Raptors to wanna go get a closer look since he's moving up the boards and plays in Australia.
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