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Everything Draft 2021
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I think BPA is too often simplified into a ranking of players, and I don't think any competent NBA front office does things that way. There are tiers, guys they like, guys they don't like, at each pick range. Impossible to say from the outside who is in each tier for each scouting group, but for the purpose of demonstration we can use consensus mocks. For example, the top 4 - Cade is in a tier by himself, then 2-4 seem to be viewed pretty evenly, Kuminga again in his own tier and then like 6-10 pretty flat. If a team is picking 2nd, and like all of those 2-4 range guys, it would be perfectly reasonable to use a position of need to break the tie. Same in that 6-10 range. But reaching to another tier, say taking Kuminga at 4, would be breaking the BPA model and reaching for positional need, something that is likely a bad idea.
Now those are obviously examples. Could be a front office likes Kuminga more than the wings in the 2-4 range and legitimately just take him because they consider him BPA, although it looks like a need pick from the outside. So be cautious with the critiques on draft night, besides my usual "aww, I was hoping for such and such" - especially with a front office like ours. They tend to make you look silly.
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I understand the fear or doubt people have in Raps drafting Kuminga or Barnes, but I'm trying to remember if OG entered the league with same sort of perceived flaws or not. Both guys seem to be ahead of where OG was but I'd have to go back and look at his tape from college. Not to mention physically they are both quite impressive again perhaps ahead of where OG was.
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LJ2 wrote: View PostI understand the fear or doubt people have in Raps drafting Kuminga or Barnes, but I'm trying to remember if OG entered the league with same sort of perceived flaws or not. Both guys seem to be ahead of where OG was but I'd have to go back and look at his tape from college. Not to mention physically they are both quite impressive again perhaps ahead of where OG was.
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I'm starting to like Keon a LOT. Dude gets his head up to the rim with ease, and then he's got a lot of checkmarks - playmaking skills, defense, aggressiveness, etc. He must have long arms because he always seems to have plenty of room to spare on his dunks and he looks like a 6'7 guy around the basket. He didn't have the box score, or the deadeye 3-ball, but he definitely looks like he could be an energizer/scorer off the bench from day 1.
Shades of Jordan Clarkson, or Caris Lavert, but seems more athletic than both.
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I agree with your take on Keon. He's a smart player, good court vision, stays in his lane and doesn't force things. He's a great athlete 6'5" with a 6'8 wing span. Very good defender and a talented player within 18' of the basket. He really has to extend his range, but he honestly has everything else.
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SkywalkerAC wrote: View PostI'm starting to like Keon a LOT. Dude gets his head up to the rim with ease, and then he's got a lot of checkmarks - playmaking skills, defense, aggressiveness, etc. He must have long arms because he always seems to have plenty of room to spare on his dunks and he looks like a 6'7 guy around the basket. He didn't have the box score, or the deadeye 3-ball, but he definitely looks like he could be an energizer/scorer off the bench from day 1.
Shades of Jordan Clarkson, or Caris Lavert, but seems more athletic than both.Mamba Mentality
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DanH wrote: View PostI think BPA is too often simplified into a ranking of players, and I don't think any competent NBA front office does things that way. There are tiers, guys they like, guys they don't like, at each pick range. Impossible to say from the outside who is in each tier for each scouting group, but for the purpose of demonstration we can use consensus mocks. For example, the top 4 - Cade is in a tier by himself, then 2-4 seem to be viewed pretty evenly, Kuminga again in his own tier and then like 6-10 pretty flat. If a team is picking 2nd, and like all of those 2-4 range guys, it would be perfectly reasonable to use a position of need to break the tie. Same in that 6-10 range. But reaching to another tier, say taking Kuminga at 4, would be breaking the BPA model and reaching for positional need, something that is likely a bad idea.
Now those are obviously examples. Could be a front office likes Kuminga more than the wings in the 2-4 range and legitimately just take him because they consider him BPA, although it looks like a need pick from the outside. So be cautious with the critiques on draft night, besides my usual "aww, I was hoping for such and such" - especially with a front office like ours. They tend to make you look silly.
Depends on draft order obviously but there's a chance Mobley is there at 4. If you look at the bottom 5 teams, the only team that needs a C is OKC. If the draft order stays the same then Cade, Suggs and Green will go 1-2-3.
Prediction - you're going to hear Green's name more as a potential #1.Mamba Mentality
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And again I like KJ's "fit" more than how he fills a "need", and partly because he's not at all undersized at the 2. Next to OG at the 3 - check. Next to GTJ at the 3 - check again (almost a bit of Houston-Sprewell look). Length and athleticism - check.
Basically if any of our starting wing-forwards (Gary, OG, Pascal) were checked out, Nurse could sub him in 6th man - that's not the case with someone like Springer. Defense and transition ability - check.
Could very well be the best "fit" and "best prospect available".
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DanH wrote: View PostI think BPA is too often simplified into a ranking of players, and I don't think any competent NBA front office does things that way. There are tiers, guys they like, guys they don't like, at each pick range. Impossible to say from the outside who is in each tier for each scouting group, but for the purpose of demonstration we can use consensus mocks. For example, the top 4 - Cade is in a tier by himself, then 2-4 seem to be viewed pretty evenly, Kuminga again in his own tier and then like 6-10 pretty flat. If a team is picking 2nd, and like all of those 2-4 range guys, it would be perfectly reasonable to use a position of need to break the tie. Same in that 6-10 range. But reaching to another tier, say taking Kuminga at 4, would be breaking the BPA model and reaching for positional need, something that is likely a bad idea.
Now those are obviously examples. Could be a front office likes Kuminga more than the wings in the 2-4 range and legitimately just take him because they consider him BPA, although it looks like a need pick from the outside. So be cautious with the critiques on draft night, besides my usual "aww, I was hoping for such and such" - especially with a front office like ours. They tend to make you look silly.
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I'd be completely okay with the Raptors drafting Keon Johnson. His athleticism is insane, that is pure talent. His weaknesses are things that can be taught or improved upon being on a high character team like the Raptors, good player development, coached by Nick and playing with Fred, Pascal, OG and so on.
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I don't think it's a 6-10 tier, more like 6-14 tier. The mocks do not have a consensus 6-10, there are about 14 different players that appear in the top 10 depending in which mocks you look at. So if we stick at 7-8 it really will be Masai and Bobby working their magic to make sure we get the best player available. For example, if we take Giddey at 7 that's not necessarily a reach or bad pick, that could be BPA and best value. I trust our scouting so it will be a very interesting draft and I expect our pick to shake things up.
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I’m confident there will be a good to great player left when we pick, and I trust our scouting to find the right guy.
I was watching the ignite today, Kuminga isn’t as raw as people are making him out to be. I still have more to watch but I can see why he’s in the top 5
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