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Everything Draft 2021
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LJ2 wrote: View Post
I disagree. Look at the impact of CP3 on the players around him. Cade gets players involved, scores without having to dominate the ball and defends. I think he will impact wins a lot more than Green. Green reminds me more of a Beal type player and we'll Detroit should avoid using Washington's template for success.
If they can squeeze another asset or two from the Rockets to make that swap, I think it's a good move.
Houston has picks 23 and 24 as well. I bet Detroit could get both of them to trade down just one spot.
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planetmars wrote: View Post
I would take Cade over Green on the Raptors, and for most teams. But the Pistons drafted Killian Hayes in the lottery last year. He's a 6'5 point guard that can create for others. I think Green is a better fit for them. They need a natural scorer more than another facilitator. Cade is big enough to be a wing yet they have Grant and Bey.
If they can squeeze another asset or two from the Rockets to make that swap, I think it's a good move.
Houston has picks 23 and 24 as well. I bet Detroit could get both of them to trade down just one spot.
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planetmars wrote: View Post
I would take Cade over Green on the Raptors, and for most teams. But the Pistons drafted Killian Hayes in the lottery last year. He's a 6'5 point guard that can create for others. I think Green is a better fit for them. They need a natural scorer more than another facilitator. Cade is big enough to be a wing yet they have Grant and Bey.
If they can squeeze another asset or two from the Rockets to make that swap, I think it's a good move.
Houston has picks 23 and 24 as well. I bet Detroit could get both of them to trade down just one spot.
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The Great One wrote: View PostWell, Green/Suggs are a major upgrade over Sexton. You're talking like Sexton's the second coming of Iverson. I always view Sexton as a 6th man. I believe he averaged 24ppg last year? It's easy to put up big numbers on a bad team. If Kyle Kuzma played for the Cavs, he'd average 24ppg too.
Like: Puffer made the point that we don't know how these guys are going to turn out. Most drafts aren't actually loaded with superstar talent, after all. Probably the richest-at-the-top draft in recent history is the 2016 draft, where Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram and Jaylen Brown went 1-2-3, with Jamal Murray at 7 and Domantas Sabonis at 11 - and out of all of those guys, I think Jamal Murray is the only one you can reliably call an alpha star, with the others all being complementary guys at best. Alternately, you can argue for 2018, which had Luka and Trae in the top 5 - but also Deandre Ayton and Jaren Jackson Jr., who are both good players but are probably not superstars. And also poor Marvin Bagley.
Basically, we should be happy to be getting a good pick in this draft because it offers us a better chance at a star player, which is great. But we can't think of these guys as definite assets. Of the top four guys, probably at least one is going to top out at "average decent NBA player" because that's what happens in almost every draft. (My guess: it will be either Green or Cade. Possibly both.)
Is Sexton a flawed player? Probably not. He's an NBA-level player who can get buckets. The defense is... okay. He might not be a superstar, but he's definitely an NBA starter. When you have talent, trading it away for an unproven potential upgrade in the draft is stupid, because you're trading away a definite asset for a chance at a slightly better one. It makes more sense for Cleveland to just keep drafting and developing young players, because once they have a bunch of NBA starters, they can start trying to accumulate more talent via trades. I mean, what's the downside of keeping Sexton? Oh no, Cleveland might have to pay him money? Who the hell else are they going to pay? LeBron isn't coming back anytime soon.
If Cleveland was starting a rebuild I could maybe see the logic, but they aren't - they're in the middle of a rebuild, they've got their backcourt of the future set up, they need more good young talent. I could see the argument for trading down with Orlando, for example - get #5 and #8 because the bigger wings in this draft, which are what Cleveland really needs, are going to be available at that range, and now you get two shots at a stud rather than one. But getting rid of talent that Cleveland desperately needs? It feels like a cheap-ass move to me from a bad front office.
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I think it's important that we look at every player's downside. We look at their upside a lot because none of us want to be haters. But they've all got downsides. In rough big board order:
Cade: Turns the ball over more than any other major prospect in recent memory. Not particularly good at getting to the line. Not particularly good at rebounding given his size. Motor is nothing special. NCAA stats were good but not explosively "this is the consensus #1" great. There's a strong argument that his high school play was so dominant simply because he got bigger faster than most of the other kids.
Green: Yes, his upside comp is Devin Booker or Zach LaVine, but that's his ceiling, not his reasonable comp. He's a smaller than average SG and he can score, but he's not really a crafty scorer yet nor an elite shooter and he needs to become one or both to become the star everybody hopes he'll become.
Mobley: His shooting is okay, but nothing special - and comping him to Chris Bosh (which is a fair upside comp) needs to be paired with remembering that Bosh mostly played in a different NBA era and didn't become a good distance shooter until the end of his career. He's skinny and he'll get bullied by other bigs in the paint until - or if - he puts on more muscle.
Suggs: Does a lot of things reasonably well, but he's not really elite at anything, and that's a concern because the easiest path to success for an NBA player is to be elite at something and then bring the rest of the skills up to a competent NBA level. The shooting is a work in progress. His handles tend to be sloppy. We don't know how he'll function running a team full time because Gonzaga ran three point guards and divvied the load between all three of them.
Barnes: The shooting, the shooting, the shooting. The passing and defense are both promising but he'll need good coaching to get them to become NBA elite level, but anyway: the shooting, the shooting, the shooting.
Kuminga: Here's something nobody mentions: we think Kuminga is 18. But he's from the DRC, so there is a moderate chance he could be slightly older - the old "lie about your age when you move to America to maximize your chances of getting an NBA career" move. If he's 18 with his current skill profile - sure, he's a lottery pick based solely on his upside (and to be clear, even at this point, he's a massive project with a lot of risk). If he's 19, though, with that skillset? He's not a lottery pick any more, he's maybe a first-rounder. If he's 20 he's a second-rounder at best. I'm not saying he's older than 18 - I'm saying that he's a very very very risky option, and the age thing demonstrates how quickly promise for the future turns into "eh, this is who he is."
Keon: Keon Johnson is young, super-athletic, and can play on both sides of the ball. But he's slightly smaller than average, he's inefficient as a passer, and the shooting game isn't there yet. I would like him as a mid-teens first round pick. As a lottery pick I think he's a reach.
Wagner: There isn't too much downside to Wagner, honestly, except that he's a super-boring pick with no ceiling to speak of. He is who he is, almost certainly. That's fine.
Giddey: Athletic concerns are the issue with him because he's smart and the shot looks to be improving (but is still unproven), but none of that matters if you're a sieve on defense. His most accurate comp is "Lonzo Ball, except the defense is worse right now." That's a huge concern.
Sengun: Plays a game that's become obsolete in the NBA (post-up PF) - I mean, he's really good at it, but can he be good enough at it to basically bring it back? Not a good rim protector either and that's a problem for a big in the NBA.
Jalen Johnson: Strong argument he's a stat-stuffer who doesn't care about his teammates or his team, and that's a major concern.
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magoon wrote: View PostI think it's important that we look at every player's downside. We look at their upside a lot because none of us want to be haters. But they've all got downsides. In rough big board order:
Cade: Turns the ball over more than any other major prospect in recent memory. Not particularly good at getting to the line. Not particularly good at rebounding given his size. Motor is nothing special. NCAA stats were good but not explosively "this is the consensus #1" great. There's a strong argument that his high school play was so dominant simply because he got bigger faster than most of the other kids.
Green: Yes, his upside comp is Devin Booker or Zach LaVine, but that's his ceiling, not his reasonable comp. He's a smaller than average SG and he can score, but he's not really a crafty scorer yet nor an elite shooter and he needs to become one or both to become the star everybody hopes he'll become.
Mobley: His shooting is okay, but nothing special - and comping him to Chris Bosh (which is a fair upside comp) needs to be paired with remembering that Bosh mostly played in a different NBA era and didn't become a good distance shooter until the end of his career. He's skinny and he'll get bullied by other bigs in the paint until - or if - he puts on more muscle.
Suggs: Does a lot of things reasonably well, but he's not really elite at anything, and that's a concern because the easiest path to success for an NBA player is to be elite at something and then bring the rest of the skills up to a competent NBA level. The shooting is a work in progress. His handles tend to be sloppy. We don't know how he'll function running a team full time because Gonzaga ran three point guards and divvied the load between all three of them.
Barnes: The shooting, the shooting, the shooting. The passing and defense are both promising but he'll need good coaching to get them to become NBA elite level, but anyway: the shooting, the shooting, the shooting.
Kuminga: Here's something nobody mentions: we think Kuminga is 18. But he's from the DRC, so there is a moderate chance he could be slightly older - the old "lie about your age when you move to America to maximize your chances of getting an NBA career" move. If he's 18 with his current skill profile - sure, he's a lottery pick based solely on his upside (and to be clear, even at this point, he's a massive project with a lot of risk). If he's 19, though, with that skillset? He's not a lottery pick any more, he's maybe a first-rounder. If he's 20 he's a second-rounder at best. I'm not saying he's older than 18 - I'm saying that he's a very very very risky option, and the age thing demonstrates how quickly promise for the future turns into "eh, this is who he is."
Keon: Keon Johnson is young, super-athletic, and can play on both sides of the ball. But he's slightly smaller than average, he's inefficient as a passer, and the shooting game isn't there yet. I would like him as a mid-teens first round pick. As a lottery pick I think he's a reach.
Wagner: There isn't too much downside to Wagner, honestly, except that he's a super-boring pick with no ceiling to speak of. He is who he is, almost certainly. That's fine.
Giddey: Athletic concerns are the issue with him because he's smart and the shot looks to be improving (but is still unproven), but none of that matters if you're a sieve on defense. His most accurate comp is "Lonzo Ball, except the defense is worse right now." That's a huge concern.
Sengun: Plays a game that's become obsolete in the NBA (post-up PF) - I mean, he's really good at it, but can he be good enough at it to basically bring it back? Not a good rim protector either and that's a problem for a big in the NBA.
Jalen Johnson: Strong argument he's a stat-stuffer who doesn't care about his teammates or his team, and that's a major concern.
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magoon wrote: View PostI think it's important that we look at every player's downside. We look at their upside a lot because none of us want to be haters. But they've all got downsides. In rough big board order:
Cade: Turns the ball over more than any other major prospect in recent memory. Not particularly good at getting to the line. Not particularly good at rebounding given his size. Motor is nothing special. NCAA stats were good but not explosively "this is the consensus #1" great. There's a strong argument that his high school play was so dominant simply because he got bigger faster than most of the other kids.
Green: Yes, his upside comp is Devin Booker or Zach LaVine, but that's his ceiling, not his reasonable comp. He's a smaller than average SG and he can score, but he's not really a crafty scorer yet nor an elite shooter and he needs to become one or both to become the star everybody hopes he'll become.
Mobley: His shooting is okay, but nothing special - and comping him to Chris Bosh (which is a fair upside comp) needs to be paired with remembering that Bosh mostly played in a different NBA era and didn't become a good distance shooter until the end of his career. He's skinny and he'll get bullied by other bigs in the paint until - or if - he puts on more muscle.
Suggs: Does a lot of things reasonably well, but he's not really elite at anything, and that's a concern because the easiest path to success for an NBA player is to be elite at something and then bring the rest of the skills up to a competent NBA level. The shooting is a work in progress. His handles tend to be sloppy. We don't know how he'll function running a team full time because Gonzaga ran three point guards and divvied the load between all three of them.
Barnes: The shooting, the shooting, the shooting. The passing and defense are both promising but he'll need good coaching to get them to become NBA elite level, but anyway: the shooting, the shooting, the shooting.
Kuminga: Here's something nobody mentions: we think Kuminga is 18. But he's from the DRC, so there is a moderate chance he could be slightly older - the old "lie about your age when you move to America to maximize your chances of getting an NBA career" move. If he's 18 with his current skill profile - sure, he's a lottery pick based solely on his upside (and to be clear, even at this point, he's a massive project with a lot of risk). If he's 19, though, with that skillset? He's not a lottery pick any more, he's maybe a first-rounder. If he's 20 he's a second-rounder at best. I'm not saying he's older than 18 - I'm saying that he's a very very very risky option, and the age thing demonstrates how quickly promise for the future turns into "eh, this is who he is."
Keon: Keon Johnson is young, super-athletic, and can play on both sides of the ball. But he's slightly smaller than average, he's inefficient as a passer, and the shooting game isn't there yet. I would like him as a mid-teens first round pick. As a lottery pick I think he's a reach.
Wagner: There isn't too much downside to Wagner, honestly, except that he's a super-boring pick with no ceiling to speak of. He is who he is, almost certainly. That's fine.
Giddey: Athletic concerns are the issue with him because he's smart and the shot looks to be improving (but is still unproven), but none of that matters if you're a sieve on defense. His most accurate comp is "Lonzo Ball, except the defense is worse right now." That's a huge concern.
Sengun: Plays a game that's become obsolete in the NBA (post-up PF) - I mean, he's really good at it, but can he be good enough at it to basically bring it back? Not a good rim protector either and that's a problem for a big in the NBA.
Jalen Johnson: Strong argument he's a stat-stuffer who doesn't care about his teammates or his team, and that's a major concern.
Whoever we get will still need to improve their game, but the top 4 is coming in with a pretty decent floor. It's hard to imagine this draft is close to the 2003 draft class.... but if it is!!! lol
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SkywalkerAC wrote: View PostI doubt Sengun is a power forward in today's game. Even Sabonis is barely a power forward.
I am ready to get my mind blown on draft night, be angry at first then calm down and trust Masai & his executive team that the player they chose will greatly affect the team success in the long terms cause they know something that we don't.
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saints91 wrote: View Post
Good synopsis, and I agree with most of it. Kuminga's might be a reach but I think his true weakness is the same as Barnes, he need s to be more consistent with his shooting.
Whoever we get will still need to improve their game, but the top 4 is coming in with a pretty decent floor. It's hard to imagine this draft is close to the 2003 draft class.... but if it is!!! lol
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Hotshot wrote: View Post
Sengun might be the surprise pick by Masai. I am sure he will attempt to trade down so he can get another pick/player.
I am ready to get my mind blown on draft night, be angry at first then calm down and trust Masai & his executive team that the player they chose will greatly affect the team success in the long terms cause they know something that we don't.
- Is extremely long
- Has great instincts on defense
- Seems to be a hard worker with the believe in yourself type of attitude.
- Didn't grow up with a father (this is a key trait for a lot of Raptor players that Masai seems to love)
It's kind of why I'm hoping Mobley falls, because if it's between Mobley and Barnes I think they take Mobley. But if it's between Suggs and Barnes for example, I think they take Barnes even though I would probably be really angry if that happened. I've fallen in love with Suggs game.
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planetmars wrote: View Post
If they reach it will be on Barnes because Barnes looks like a Raptor player. He fits the guys they've drafted in the past.
- Is extremely long
- Has great instincts on defense
- Seems to be a hard worker with the believe in yourself type of attitude.
- Didn't grow up with a father (this is a key trait for a lot of Raptor players that Masai seems to love)
It's kind of why I'm hoping Mobley falls, because if it's between Mobley and Barnes I think they take Mobley. But if it's between Suggs and Barnes for example, I think they take Barnes even though I would probably be really angry if that happened. I've fallen in love with Suggs game.
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Here is the thing about reaches... there are times to reach there are also places to reach within a draft. I think if we were in the 7th or 8th I would be more expecting them to reach in a raptors style. I think if they were in the 8th spot they would be targeting the #5 or 6 potentially to reach their guy... or be willing to move for a reach... in the top 4 in this draft itf it ends up being suggs you take him... doesn't make me SUPER excited but it doesn't make me upset.
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