Everything Gary Trent Jr.

[GOLDBLUM]

In the continued search for Gary’s nickname…

FVV when asked if Gary’s “in the flow?” :

—

He’s not in the flow. …. He is the flow.

[golden]

Trent is 5 years younger. You can't compare players that far apart in age. As for Herro, he's a RFA while Trent is a UFA.

There actually aren't a lot of obvious comparisons for Gary at his age heading into UFA which is going to be good for him!

The last 2 UFAs of note, age 25 and under, were Christian Wood (13.6m AAV) and Julius Randle (20.7m AAV). With shooting at a premium and the cap possibly spiking, I would predict GTJ getting somewhere around 25-27m AAV. This assumes he remains consistent and is still improving.

[planetmars]

The salary cap is estimated to be at $119.2M in 2023-2024. That was based on this Woj tweet:

Using that estimate, the most Gary can make is 25% of the cap. As he'd be less than a 7 year pro.

So a starting value of $29.8M. And with 8% increases per year, a 4 year AAV of about $33.6M per year.


Hopefully he doesn't make the max.

[KeonClark]

In the continued search for Gary’s nickname…

FVV when asked if Gary’s “in the flow?” :

—

He’s not in the flow. …. He is the flow.

Starting backcourt: Steady Freddie and Go with The Flow

[bertarapsfan]

Hmm, I agree to some extent.

1. Self-creation. Yes, he creates a lot of his own looks. But even on this team, he is assisted on more of his 2 point shots than Fred or Pascal (or Dalano!), and on more of his threes than Fred. So he's likely a 3rd creator if anything on this team in terms of creating his own shot.

2. Efficiency. He has a 55% TS%, which is perfectly fine, but he's not setting the nets on fire either. Worth noting he's actually slightly less efficient than Fred, and less than 1% better than Pascal and OG. They are all in the solidly decent efficiency range, none of them elite.

Also worth noting, although his efficiency in self-created shots is good (49% eFG% on pull-ups and shots inside 10 feet, which should capture his few drives), it's not what is driving his overall efficiency. That's his catch and shoot opportunities (63% eFG%). Worth comparing to a guy like Fred, who is hardly proclaimed for his efficiency in isolation (46% eFG%). Fred has an even more incredible shooting efficiency in catch and shoot (70% eFG%!) that helps increase his overall efficiency. Of course, with Fred his playmaking comes along with that self-created offence. Pascal has even more self creation (takes way more two's, so makes sense), and although he's less efficient in the midrange, he generates the bulk of his shots inside 10 feet and overall those self-creation opportunities are right in line with Trent's (50% eFG%). And of course also has that playmaking aspect like Fred.

I want to preface this by saying im not going after you Dan. Your a great poster have a lot of knowledge..

But these type of analytic and stats kinda of miss the plot of what Gary brings to the team. I think where a lot of us are seeing Trent big value is his shot creation and how he can get to his spots and get a good look off that he seems to hit a pretty good rate

This is greatly needed on our team. You need a guy when a set breaks down and you have 8 seconds left on the clock with no play set up, a guy who can give the ball to late in a game when defense ramps up. Some one who can get the ball make a quick move and get a decent look.

This area are the same places the rest of our core struggles. Fred can light it up, but he is too small to get to the rim at times. Doesn't have a explosive step back to get into the mid range and get a clean look. It why you see him bombing so many shots for 30+ feet. He has to get to the defense before they man him up close to get a good 3pt shot. Problem comes in crunch time when defense knows this and mans him up as soon as he crosses half court.

Pascal can attack the rim, get those little dumper and floaters off in the flow of the game. But in last clock/ game situations when he gets into the lane team swarm him and get tons of arms in his face making him take really really tough shots late in games and sometime even really hard to make pass to an open guy.

Gary has an explosive side step and step back. Can drive the lane and create enough space to get a shot off over the type of guys who are usually defending him. If he get the ball with less then 6 second on a broken possession, you can be pretty confident he is going to get a clean shot. In the league today and Nicks aversion to draw stuff up at end of game scenarios i would argue Gary has the tools to get the best clean look off then anyone else on the team. Sometime they drop sometimes they dot but at least it is a good look.

This isn't a gripe with you, more as just an aversion to viewing the game of basketball through math formulas rather then what you can see on the court. I'm not a old man yell at clouds analytics guys, but don't think you are giving Trent credit for what he brings in those scenarios.

[KeonClark]

I want to preface this by saying im not going after you Dan. Your a great poster have a lot of knowledge..

But these type of analytic and stats kinda of miss the plot of what Gary brings to the team. I think where a lot of us are seeing Trent big value is his shot creation and how he can get to his spots and get a good look off that he seems to hit a pretty good rate

This is greatly needed on our team. You need a guy when a set breaks down and you have 8 seconds left on the clock with no play set up, a guy who can give the ball to late in a game when defense ramps up. Some one who can get the ball make a quick move and get a decent look.

This area are the same places the rest of our core struggles. Fred can light it up, but he is too small to get to the rim at times. Doesn't have a explosive step back to get into the mid range and get a clean look. It why you see him bombing so many shots for 30+ feet. He has to get to the defense before they man him up close to get a good 3pt shot. Problem comes in crunch time when defense knows this and mans him up as soon as he crosses half court.

Pascal can attack the rim, get those little dumper and floaters off in the flow of the game. But in last clock/ game situations when he gets into the lane team swarm him and get tons of arms in his face making him take really really tough shots late in games and sometime even really hard to make pass to an open guy.

Gary has an explosive side step and step back. Can drive the lane and create enough space to get a shot off over the type of guys who are usually defending him. If he get the ball with less then 6 second on a broken possession, you can be pretty confident he is going to get a clean shot. In the league today and Nicks aversion to draw stuff up at end of game scenarios i would argue Gary has the tools to get the best clean look off then anyone else on the team. Sometime they drop sometimes they dot but at least it is a good look.

This isn't a gripe with you, more as just an aversion to viewing the game of basketball through math formulas rather then what you can see on the court. I'm not a old man yell at clouds analytics guys, but don't think you are giving Trent credit for what he brings in those scenarios.

This is why basketball could never reach analytics of baseball. It's too situational to judge. Batting average and slugging% etc is you vs pitcher, then him vs pitcher, then the other guy vs pitcher....Basketball is a fluid game closer to hockey or soccer, although more stop and start/possession based than those games so yes numbers can be quite useful and are always getting better.

[inthepaint]

I want to preface this by saying im not going after you Dan. Your a great poster have a lot of knowledge..

But these type of analytic and stats kinda of miss the plot of what Gary brings to the team. I think where a lot of us are seeing Trent big value is his shot creation and how he can get to his spots and get a good look off that he seems to hit a pretty good rate

This is greatly needed on our team. You need a guy when a set breaks down and you have 8 seconds left on the clock with no play set up, a guy who can give the ball to late in a game when defense ramps up. Some one who can get the ball make a quick move and get a decent look.

This area are the same places the rest of our core struggles. Fred can light it up, but he is too small to get to the rim at times. Doesn't have a explosive step back to get into the mid range and get a clean look. It why you see him bombing so many shots for 30+ feet. He has to get to the defense before they man him up close to get a good 3pt shot. Problem comes in crunch time when defense knows this and mans him up as soon as he crosses half court.

Pascal can attack the rim, get those little dumper and floaters off in the flow of the game. But in last clock/ game situations when he gets into the lane team swarm him and get tons of arms in his face making him take really really tough shots late in games and sometime even really hard to make pass to an open guy.

Gary has an explosive side step and step back. Can drive the lane and create enough space to get a shot off over the type of guys who are usually defending him. If he get the ball with less then 6 second on a broken possession, you can be pretty confident he is going to get a clean shot. In the league today and Nicks aversion to draw stuff up at end of game scenarios i would argue Gary has the tools to get the best clean look off then anyone else on the team. Sometime they drop sometimes they dot but at least it is a good look.

This isn't a gripe with you, more as just an aversion to viewing the game of basketball through math formulas rather then what you can see on the court. I'm not a old man yell at clouds analytics guys, but don't think you are giving Trent credit for what he brings in those scenarios.

Well said. Analytics/numbers are useful, but there's a lot out there not captured by it

[GOLDBLUM]

Starting backcourt: Steady Freddie and Go with The Flow

Alongside the chillest NBAer of them all.

[DanH]

I want to preface this by saying im not going after you Dan. Your a great poster have a lot of knowledge..

But these type of analytic and stats kinda of miss the plot of what Gary brings to the team. I think where a lot of us are seeing Trent big value is his shot creation and how he can get to his spots and get a good look off that he seems to hit a pretty good rate

This is greatly needed on our team. You need a guy when a set breaks down and you have 8 seconds left on the clock with no play set up, a guy who can give the ball to late in a game when defense ramps up. Some one who can get the ball make a quick move and get a decent look.

This area are the same places the rest of our core struggles. Fred can light it up, but he is too small to get to the rim at times. Doesn't have a explosive step back to get into the mid range and get a clean look. It why you see him bombing so many shots for 30+ feet. He has to get to the defense before they man him up close to get a good 3pt shot. Problem comes in crunch time when defense knows this and mans him up as soon as he crosses half court.

Pascal can attack the rim, get those little dumper and floaters off in the flow of the game. But in last clock/ game situations when he gets into the lane team swarm him and get tons of arms in his face making him take really really tough shots late in games and sometime even really hard to make pass to an open guy.

Gary has an explosive side step and step back. Can drive the lane and create enough space to get a shot off over the type of guys who are usually defending him. If he get the ball with less then 6 second on a broken possession, you can be pretty confident he is going to get a clean shot. In the league today and Nicks aversion to draw stuff up at end of game scenarios i would argue Gary has the tools to get the best clean look off then anyone else on the team. Sometime they drop sometimes they dot but at least it is a good look.

This isn't a gripe with you, more as just an aversion to viewing the game of basketball through math formulas rather then what you can see on the court. I'm not a old man yell at clouds analytics guys, but don't think you are giving Trent credit for what he brings in those scenarios.

The above is all fine.

But I ask this: if Gary has this explosive side step and back, why is he not able to produce offence any more efficiently than they guys you describe as being so limited? If Gary getting clean looks results in the same number of points as Pascal getting a contested look, why is that inherently a better outcome?

One thing I haven't included here is the context that the opposition's best defenders are usually tied up with Fred and Pascal, which plays a huge role in the quality of looks GTJ can get. By all means the team should take advantage of that but we shouldn't let it fool us into thinking the results would be the same if their roles were switched.

We can look at late clock and late game situations, too. We have numbers on that, we don't need to pretend that we have to rely entirely on the eye test (which tends to vary dramatically from person to person - for example I rarely see Trent get free to get a clean look when isolating, usually he's able to do that coming off pin downs or screens, things that get mucked up in late game situations unless the defence's attention is elsewhere).

Trent, for example, has a 41% eFG% in late shot clock (4 seconds left when shooting or less) situations. He takes 10% of his total shots in that situation. Pascal takes 11% of his shots in that situation, and has a... 41% eFG%. Fred does indeed measure out worse than Gary here (he can too often find himself among the trees, agree on that observation) at a 34% eFG% in those situations, and uses a larger amount of his shots in those situations (14%).

Another evaluation we can make is on touch time. If you hand a guy the ball to go make something happen for a final possession, that usually means he is holding the ball for a while and creating a shot by himself. Good news is we can track scoring efficiency on shots coming with 6+ seconds of touch time. Gary takes 13% of his shots after that amount of self creation, and has an eFG% of 43%. Pascal, 29% of his shots, and 43% eFG%. Fred, 29% of his shots, and 52% eFG%.

So, like, there's just not much there that identifies Gary as particularly effective creating his own shot. If he was so good at it, it would show up in one of these numbers. And that all leaves aside the reality that no matter how good a shot creator is, if they become your main weapon, defences will stop them unless they can punish you with their playmaking too, and Gary has a long way to go before that would describe him.

[KeonClark]

berta: Dan, numbers don't explain everything

Dan: perhaps more numbers will change your mind

[MixxAOR]

[DanH]

berta: Dan, numbers don't explain everything

Dan: perhaps more numbers will change your mind

Well that cuts me to my very core. And maybe should be my signature.

I guess my ultimate point is this: in a game where all that ultimately matters is that the number your team gets is higher than the number the other team gets at the end of the game, unless the stuff your eyes see actually translates into some sort of number, what exactly is it contributing?

[bertarapsfan]

We can look at late clock and late game situations, too. We have numbers on that, we don't need to pretend that we have to rely entirely on the eye test (which tends to vary dramatically from person to person - for example I rarely see Trent get free to get a clean look when isolating, usually he's able to do that coming off pin downs or screens, things that get mucked up in late game situations unless the defence's attention is elsewhere).


So, like, there's just not much there that identifies Gary as particularly effective creating his own shot. If he was so good at it, it would show up in one of these numbers.

Maybe listen to what pascal has to say on gary shot making ability.
"I mean its not that hard to understand how Gary plays he makes tough shots, It's super tough, but that water for him. He defiantly proved us with a lot of offense. And like you can get him open, but most of the time he can get it himself. So that helps."

[Kagemusha]

Maybe listen to what pascal has to say on gary shot making ability.
"I mean its not that hard to understand how Gary plays he makes tough shots, It's super tough, but that water for him. He defiantly proved us with a lot of offense. And like you can get him open, but most of the time he can get it himself. So that helps."

'That water for him' is consistent with the 'flow'. Lol

GT Flow jr.

[DanH]

Maybe listen to what pascal has to say on gary shot making ability.
"I mean its not that hard to understand how Gary plays he makes tough shots, It's super tough, but that water for him. He defiantly proved us with a lot of offense. And like you can get him open, but most of the time he can get it himself. So that helps."

Gary definitely hits tough shots sometimes. And having another player who can create his own shot at a decent success rate is indeed something that would help, especially from the perspective of the guys asked to create so much! I don't disagree with Pascal at all on those counts.

Is Pascal advocating for taking the ball away from him and Fred to let Gary run the offence late in games? I don't think he is?

Gary as a bailout option is very valuable to have. He's not your primary late in games though.

Gary's been solid in the clutch this year. He's hit 39% of his threes, and a lot of that success comes from feeding off of what Pascal and Fred create for others. He's also taken just as many 2's as 3's in the clutch, and he's shot 34% on his 2's. That's not exactly the tough shot making you are looking for. Now, it's way better than Fred's 2 point shooting in the clutch (real bad) but doesn't compare to Pascal's (42%). All with fewer FT's generated, fewer assists, and about the same turnover rate as the other two.