Everything Gary Trent Jr.

[Dr Hannibal Lecter]

All signs point towards it being the Siakam and Barnes show next season. Surrounding them with shooters is a good idea.

If it was only that easy.
Gary Trent is gone take 20 shots a game and Freddy is gonna take 20..
Trent is FA..and his thinking of getting paid..u ain't gonna get the ball.
I hope I'm wrong, but mark my words..he will b the biggest reason why raptors won't play team ball. Also..u think Freddy is gonna let Barnes or Siakim get the ball..Oh yeah let's not forget about OG.
This is why this team needs a center and superstar like Durant.
They got 2 many fringe all star play players and no main guy..
Barnes should be, will c if his gonna get the ball.
They should of traded Trent, Freddy or OG.
In a long run, this won't work.

[WJF]

If it was only that easy.
Gary Trent is gone take 20 shots a game and Freddy is gonna take 20..
Trent is FA..and his thinking of getting paid..u ain't gonna get the ball.
I hope I'm wrong, but mark my words..he will b the biggest reason why raptors won't play team ball. Also..u think Freddy is gonna let Barnes or Siakim get the ball..Oh yeah let's not forget about OG.
This is why this team needs a center and superstar like Durant.
They got 2 many fringe all star play players and no main guy..
Barnes should be, will c if his gonna get the ball.
They should of traded Trent, Freddy or OG.
In a long run, this won't work.

No way his teammates or Coach Nurse lets that happen. He will get paid regardless, guys are valued if they are on winning teams. Look at Malik Monk, was coming off a decent season stats wise in Charlotte shooting over 40% from 3, was young and healthy and signed a minimum deal with the Lakers. Has a good year with a dysfunctional LA team and signs for under 10 mil a year. Both of his last two years were with losing teams with poor chemistry.

[TrueTorontoFan]

So I looked at GTJ and dug into his stats a bit more today. I looked at his tracking defensive stats to see how he impacted the game defensively in terms of his opponents FG%.. since you know... buckets are important in basketball. This is what I found.

in terms of defence I went and broke down all his numbers according to NBA stats to see how he affected opponent FG%...month by month because I had a debate with my friend and I said the last two months were Trent's best defensively.. he thought it was the opposite.. nope I was correct. Trent had a very bad opponent defended FG% from all areas of the floor and especially when opponents go to the field goal got to the rim... every opponent compared to their average shot better against Gary....

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629018/defense-dash



Now just to show I am reading the stat correctly compare it to Gobert because we know he is a shot blocker so we use him to see ok hypothetically it should be negative... https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203497/defense-dash

Now my point isn't to compare the two because they do different jobs different levels of defensive talent but my point was to make sure that I was reading the stat correctly.


So I compared him to a guard on our team. Fred:
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1627832/defense-dash

I also compared him to OG and others just to double check he was the only person who consistently had a positive DFG differential month by month except for April which was GTJ's best month.


Let's ignore the argument about his offence for a second and focus on his defence. Did he improve? Yes, but is he good defensively... no. I say this because the other day he was complaining about not getting an all defence selection... This is why.

[TrueTorontoFan]

If it was only that easy.
Gary Trent is gone take 20 shots a game and Freddy is gonna take 20..
Trent is FA..and his thinking of getting paid..u ain't gonna get the ball.
I hope I'm wrong, but mark my words..he will b the biggest reason why raptors won't play team ball. Also..u think Freddy is gonna let Barnes or Siakim get the ball..Oh yeah let's not forget about OG.
This is why this team needs a center and superstar like Durant.
They got 2 many fringe all star play players and no main guy..
Barnes should be, will c if his gonna get the ball.
They should of traded Trent, Freddy or OG.
In a long run, this won't work.

We don't need a center... we could use KD yes.... also ALL NBA (Siakam) not all star.. big difference.

I agree they should eventually work to trade Fred/Trent... I think they should try and keep OG unless you are getting KD...


I do not think we should assume how Fred will be this year. It may come down to that contract extension. If he has his money secure he may not want to show case as much. So I will come to Fred's defence on this one.

[DanH]

DFG% is almost exclusively noise. There's an argument to be made that the very elite and very terrible rim protectors have somewhat stable DFG% numbers specifically at the rim, but that's about the extent of it. Outside of that very specific situation, guessing the league average DFG% is a better predictor on average for a player than guessing their career average or most recent season.

[DanH]

That's said, no, GTJ is not a particularly good defender. Just not really the stat to use.

[TrueTorontoFan]

DFG% is almost exclusively noise. There's an argument to be made that the very elite and very terrible rim protectors have somewhat stable DFG% numbers specifically at the rim, but that's about the extent of it. Outside of that very specific situation, guessing the league average DFG% is a better predictor on average for a player than guessing their career average or most recent season.

It isn't the best stat but it is interesting to see what the eye test tells you about disruption on the court. With FVV being a good defender and Gary not being.. same with OG and others. Not here arguing over what makes the perfect stat. Had a debate several times here and IRL about Gary not being a good defender.


If you only look at steals and deflections he looks good.

[The Claw Reborn]

That's said, no, GTJ is not a particularly good defender. Just not really the stat to use.

So wtf would be the most Reliable and Accurate/ “not noise” statistical measurement for defense then aside from the: Dan I know it all data?

[The Great One]

That's said, no, GTJ is not a particularly good defender. Just not really the stat to use.

Preach.

[TrueTorontoFan]

DFG% is almost exclusively noise. There's an argument to be made that the very elite and very terrible rim protectors have somewhat stable DFG% numbers specifically at the rim, but that's about the extent of it. Outside of that very specific situation, guessing the league average DFG% is a better predictor on average for a player than guessing their career average or most recent season.

Now specifically to address this.. I am curious though... I didn't talk about rim protection I gave a link to all of the numbers... whether it was at the rim or 10 feet from the basket or 6 feet from the basket... 3 pointers and 2 pointers.. it gave all it all....

I think it would be fair to look at 3 pointer DFG and 2 pointer DFG and not completely throw it out... I am looking at OG's stats now for the past few years.... what I am looking for and what I was looking for wasn't a specific number but if it was consistently positive or negative overall.... ideally ignoring a rookie season although you can toss that in if you want. Then I looked at Fred's. In both cases I tracked back as far as I could. Again the biggest variance seemed to occur between the first and second year of a players career so I ignored the first year and just looked for the overall trend of positive or negative differentials rather than the exact FG%. AKA did they impact the stat... keep in mind this is over a season(s) worth of duration. Also keep in mind the players I am comparing him to have routinely played on the same squad for their entire career and largely with the same coach as well. I can understand why that would be of concern though because sure some coaches may have certain 'principles'


Also keep in mind I went month by month before. Not surprisingly, one of GTJ's best seasons was the bubble season, when he psuedo gained a reputation for being a 3 and D wing because of how he defended in the bubble. That was actually significantly better. You could say that is the one season that us concerning from a stat stand point because ... the bubble took up a chunk of the end of the season so removing that it starts looking no bueno. NBA as a website for the stats isn't good at seperating the raptor vs portland stats within a season.... so if you want even to remove those data points that its fine, however this year, compared to OG, Siakam, Fred..Precious and Barnes you can remove Barnes for the rookie year thing), Gary was the only one who had a positive differential % almost entirely across the board and if you want to remove precious because you only have two years of data the difference looks just as stark.

Is it a noisy stat? perhaps I dont know.... I am not sure what you are basing that on specifically .... our players for the most part switch 1-5 including fred..... only one who ... PER CRAFTEDNBA doesn't switch as much based on his versatility score... and the eye test is GTJ.



Again I am looking for the overall trend not the specific numbers which I think is the right way to utilize this specific statistic... I am not sure if you are suggesting it is useless or not but that would be how I would personally interpret.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Preach.

I literally just said the same thing lol

[Kagemusha]

So I looked at GTJ and dug into his stats a bit more today. I looked at his tracking defensive stats to see how he impacted the game defensively in terms of his opponents FG%.. since you know... buckets are important in basketball. This is what I found.



https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629018/defense-dash



Now just to show I am reading the stat correctly compare it to Gobert because we know he is a shot blocker so we use him to see ok hypothetically it should be negative... https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203497/defense-dash

Now my point isn't to compare the two because they do different jobs different levels of defensive talent but my point was to make sure that I was reading the stat correctly.


So I compared him to a guard on our team. Fred:
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1627832/defense-dash

I also compared him to OG and others just to double check he was the only person who consistently had a positive DFG differential month by month except for April which was GTJ's best month.


Let's ignore the argument about his offence for a second and focus on his defence. Did he improve? Yes, but is he good defensively... no. I say this because the other day he was complaining about not getting an all defence selection... This is why.

What metrics do you think this guys uses?
https://www.nba.com/news/defensive-p...c-2021-edition

Gary is in the same tier as Smart, Bridges, Caruso, etc

[TrueTorontoFan]

What metrics do you think this guys uses?
https://www.nba.com/news/defensive-p...c-2021-edition

Gary is in the same tier as Smart, Bridges, Caruso, etc

the defensive player ladder is like power rankings.... this was also from December. I also linked the stat I was using. It was one single defensive player ladder ... and he wasn't even at the top of this specific one he was an honorable mention.


also... two more things. First, Bridges aint an nba player now ... Secondly, you really think GTJ is at the level of Smart?...... or even Caruso?

Why do you feel that way?




They specifically said:
"• Total of 6.1 deflections and steals per game on Raptors’ hustle crew." for GTJ... but they only focused on one stat which was deflections which I discussed in previous posts. Steals and defleections are nice but they are sometimes a way to overrate defence but cause defence is more than that.

I have always referred you to craftednba so you can take a look at those .. crafted BPM on offence and defence uses a way to standardize across all the other offensive or defensive metrics. but you can look individually as well.


You can also find DBPM or other DWinshares (I don't like looking at win shares personally).


I think looking at one single state ONLY can sometimes be misleading but when many stats show a trend... there may be something to it.

[The Great One]

What metrics do you think this guys uses?
https://www.nba.com/news/defensive-p...c-2021-edition

Gary is in the same tier as Smart, Bridges, Caruso, etc

Do you really think Trent is in the same level as those guys? bahahaha.

[chris]

also... two more things. First, Bridges aint an nba player now ... Secondly, you really think GTJ is at the level of Smart?...... or even Caruso?

what happened to mikal bridges?