Everything 2021 Tank

[Primer]

With Lowry back I'd be putting them in conversation, possibly as favourites, for home court. Without him they should still be well >.500 and in the playoffs. Again, so long as they have halfway decent C play.

Agree again here. We don't need Lowry to make the playoffs. Lowry back I think we compete for a 3 seed, without him a 4-5 seed depending on what players we get to replace him.

Do people really still think Atlanta is a world beater? They had one decent game against Philly that they nearly blew in the 4th quarter and have looked over matched since then. They also have a big decision on whether to retain Collins at max or near max. This season could easily be the high watermark for this version of the Hawks.

The Raptors are still one of the best looking teams in the East with a ton of flexibility to do something different if they want.

[DanH]

Isn't it pretty much a lock that we will re-sign Birch? He's a halfway decent C, right?

Yes. And yes.

[golden]

With Lowry back I'd be putting them in conversation, possibly as favourites, for home court. Without him they should still be well >.500 and in the playoffs. Again, so long as they have halfway decent C play.

Isn't it pretty much a lock that we will re-sign Birch? He's a halfway decent C, right?

[DanH]

Yes, and Kyle Lowry back.

With Lowry back I'd be putting them in conversation, possibly as favourites, for home court. Without him they should still be well >.500 and in the playoffs. Again, so long as they have halfway decent C play.

[planetmars]

Birch and Freddie played a lot of minutes late in the season where the Raptors were resting like their entire starting linuep, or as close as they could manage. Intentionally losing. Hard to grade them much on that.

The team dominated Birch's minutes in the few games where he got to play with a bunch of starters.

Just need functional C play to be way better than they were this year.

Yes, and Kyle Lowry back.

[planetmars]

Atlanta is fun but I don't think they're that good. Hawks and Knicks are the new Pacers and Magic at the bottom of East.

I've said this before, there's an 'everybody else is getting better' mania at the start of every season. Half those teams you think will be better? They won't be. Injuries, circumstances, and just not being as good as you'd think all hit several teams every year. Look at the Heat and Celtics this past year - pretty sure no one was predicting them to drop off, plus have the Magic AND Pacers fall right out of the playoffs. Plus have the Raptors go from #2 overall seed to the lottery. The East was not exactly a bloodbath, there were basically 3 actually good teams then a bunch of middling ones. And those 3 good teams? Embiid's playing injured, Nets now have 2 of their top 3 out. One healthy team and it's only round 2. Management isn't going to pull the plug because of where other teams might or might not be at a year from now. You just don't run a team that way.

The way I see it is that the Raptors team from last season (the 2019-2020 season) and next season (the 2021-2022) season could look radically different. The 2020 team had no star player and we had a lot of injuries / starting line ups but found a way to win at a 60 win pace, and get the record that we did.

We had kids that year like Davis and Thomas but we relied heavily on the vets. And at that time we had Serge/Marc/Norm/Kyle. 3 of those guys are gone. Lowry could be as well. I mean really good chance he's gone.

The 2022 outlook feels bleak. Kyle Lowry is an underrated superstar.. like Chris Paul is proving it in Phoenix now, and OKC last year. He made that team successful. He got Ibaka to who is spots. He helped lead the team when they were struggling. It was he and that bench that got that win against Dallas during that crazy come back. He fueled that win against Brooklyn when the crowd was against him. Just like he did against the Lakers this season. He is the reason we even got to a game 7 against the Raptors.

Without Kyle I just don't see this team being that great. We'll have some good players.. that play tough defense.. and will win some games due to working harder than their opponent.. but the skill for the most part is lacking.. and that toughness that Kyle brought will be lacking. He was our identity.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope Fred and Pascal pick up the slack. I hope Nurse utilizes his bench and young kids better (we're going to have a lot of them). I hope management brings in role players / vets that can help win (and I don't mean guys like Baynes, Carroll or Hood). I hope we have a healthy season for the most part (although Pascal's surgery is already a big step back). And I hope we can make the playoffs again. I'm just skeptical right now. I think it's going to be a slog of a year again if Lowry's leaves.

And this is only partly due to the improvements other teams made.. which I understand could mean nothing. "Organic growth" only takes you so far. A team like Atlanta, NY, Boston or Miami could all end up in the lottery next year if any one of those clubs get a significant injury to a star player or something.

[DanH]

Pascal sucked in those 10 games (-5.7 net rating), but Baynes (-10.6) and Len (-13.0) were so much worse. That center rotation was utter garbage early on. We have to nail that position for next year to have any chance for the playoffs.

Freddie all year had a net rating of -9.6 and Birch was -1.1. We need to be better than them as well.

Birch and Freddie played a lot of minutes late in the season where the Raptors were resting like their entire starting linuep, or as close as they could manage. Intentionally losing. Hard to grade them much on that.

The team dominated Birch's minutes in the few games where he got to play with a bunch of starters.

Just need functional C play to be way better than they were this year.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Atlanta is fun but I don't think they're that good. Hawks and Knicks are the new Pacers and Magic at the bottom of East.

I've said this before, there's an 'everybody else is getting better' mania at the start of every season. Half those teams you think will be better? They won't be. Injuries, circumstances, and just not being as good as you'd think all hit several teams every year. Look at the Heat and Celtics this past year - pretty sure no one was predicting them to drop off, plus have the Magic AND Pacers fall right out of the playoffs. Plus have the Raptors go from #2 overall seed to the lottery. The East was not exactly a bloodbath, there were basically 3 actually good teams then a bunch of middling ones. And those 3 good teams? Embiid's playing injured, Nets now have 2 of their top 3 out. One healthy team and it's only round 2. Management isn't going to pull the plug because of where other teams might or might not be at a year from now. You just don't run a team that way.

I think the underrated part about this year is it demonstrated the difficulty of having a team be successful long-term while keeping everyone healthy. We have had a crazy run playoff-wise with deep runs but that takes its toll. This was the best thing to happen to the franchise. Everyone gets a chance to finally get healthy to have a proper off-season in non-covid times. I am curious what happens if we had played the playoffs last year without covid being a thing if the outcome is different and we make it to the finals. I do think there is a chance that happened but we will never know.

[S.R.]

Atlanta is fun but I don't think they're that good. Hawks and Knicks are the new Pacers and Magic at the bottom of East.

I've said this before, there's an 'everybody else is getting better' mania at the start of every season. Half those teams you think will be better? They won't be. Injuries, circumstances, and just not being as good as you'd think all hit several teams every year. Look at the Heat and Celtics this past year - pretty sure no one was predicting them to drop off, plus have the Magic AND Pacers fall right out of the playoffs. Plus have the Raptors go from #2 overall seed to the lottery. The East was not exactly a bloodbath, there were basically 3 actually good teams then a bunch of middling ones. And those 3 good teams? Embiid's playing injured, Nets now have 2 of their top 3 out. One healthy team and it's only round 2. Management isn't going to pull the plug because of where other teams might or might not be at a year from now. You just don't run a team that way.

[TrueTorontoFan]

I think it all depends on how we see the last season for us. Was that just a hotel season where many games were missed due to injury/covid by our main players and on the final stretch we intentionally tanked to move up on the draft? Or is that the likely record we're getting this coming season too regardless?

Most likely the former. We're closer to the team on the bubble (took 2nd round to 7 games). That's actually where Atlanta is right now, except they are likely not taking their 2nd round to game 7 (Philly will finish them off sooner). In other words, if they're a "serious playoff team", so are we (unless the same stuff that went on last season goes on again, including Baynes)

exactly. I think this year will be the year that determines whether or not we trade Siakam and FVV or not.

[S.R.]

Not this again

[TrueTorontoFan]

The other thing is I don't think that Lowry raises our ceiling in the regular season as much as he raises our floor in the playoffs. WHICH IS BIG. I think his biggest value is in the playoffs. HE is good enough for us to play 500 ball with everyone else out and just playing with a bench. That doesn't mean that if everyone else is healthy and lowry is gone that we are screwed.


Again I see us being the 4/5 best team in the east depending on the rookie pick and depending on the center and our depth. For example, if you replace the inconsistency of stanley johnson and get more offensive output from a body int he place of mccaw, in a rookie that right there makes us better. we have struggled with our depth over the past two years particularly bench scoring. If we draft someone in the top 4 that is no longer an issue. Depending on who we draft in the top 10 again not that big of an issue.

[Dvdvideo]

Lowry was a big part of that Boston series. He pulled us out of many games. But he's getting old and he might not come back. That 2-8 start Raptors were who they really are imo.

Others have already answered this in detail, but I have to say, saying the raptors are a 20% win team as the roster exists is about the silliest thing I have seen on here. Please.

[TrueTorontoFan]

There is a chance they slip out of the playoffs again.

Pascal not playing for the first 3-4 weeks is not my concern. But losing Lowry could be. A first round pick, even a #1 overall rarely has impact on winning in their first year. I believe the last time a rookie made a significant impact on a team was Lebron. We'll be a worse team without Lowry, and he's 50/50 at this point to not being here. Free agency is underwhelming and there are no game changers.. even then we struggle to find anyone good in free agency. Richaun Holmes for example is still a role player. And yet I feel like if Lowry leaves, it would be a S&T, which means we'll have no cap space anyway.

And we are still missing depth. Even going back 1 season back, we had guys like RHJ and Terrence Davis producing. Norm averaged 16ppg that year too. We'll have potentially 3 rookies, with Harris, Gilliie and Flynn as sophomores. That's 5 really young players. Throw in guys like Yuta and Watson and that's 7 really young players.

Then on top of that you have to consider the growth in most other Eastern conference teams. Atlanta is a much better team with a lot more depth, and better coaching. Boston and Miami are still going to be in the thick of things. Washington will finally get their center back, who's all-star caliber. Indiana is going to get a new coach.. which may or may not give them stability.. at least they have a lot to prove after being eliminated the way they did. Is Charlotte going to be a playoff team finally? The one hope is NY takes a fall back.. but they have some crazy cap space and a lot to prove after being bounced in the first round.

And Toronto may not even have fans for awhile, assuming they even come home. Our politicians are idiots and I could see them fumbling this all up.

I just think there is likely as good of a chance that this team isn't good enough for the playoffs again next year. If we are far enough back of the play-in / playoffs by the all-star break.. I could see the front office resting a lot of guys again and hoping for more ping-pong balls.

Of course I could be optimistic. We had a positive net rating for most of the year despite all our rest/injuries/etc. We'll likely play more games in Toronto then not. And we are really good at home. Lowry could be back. There is a 50/50 chance he's back and not gone. And we need his veteran leadership more now than ever before (especially if we have 7-8 kids on the team next year). Birch has been good and could come back.. far better than Baynes. Boucher looks like he could become an all-star one day, so even if Pascal misses games it may not be so bad. And a team like Miami or Boston could actually miss the playoffs. Who's to say they don't have a worse season even next year. Philly could drop in the standings. Thibs always tends to wear out his welcome by the second year. And Charlotte, Indiana and Washington could all continue to stink and be mediocre.

But there is no guarantee we're a playoff team next year. This tank could extend into one more season.

The thing about the playoffs... You gotta remember this team was in need of a long off season rest for a while. Everyone will come back well rested with a proper developmental off season and ready to play. I don't see any reason why as Dan H pointed out that we would be out of the playoffs. Even without Lowry. Lowry is good but we can and should make the playoffs without Lowry with a healthy roster and a half decent center all year especially if we keep that pick.

[Demographic Shift]

This right here. The east is still garbage and Nurse is still the best coach in the game. Missing the playoffs this year was a purposeful choice by our management. We won't be doing that again next season and we will easily make the playoffs.

I think we make them... I don't know if it will be easy or not. The East right now is 3 deep with the Hawks first in line for the rest of the conference. 100% Nurse is a helluva coach and we likely get Nate B back into the fold which makes us better. .
BUT
Acquiring players isn't as easy as it is in NBA fantasy....

Ujiri does have options at his disposal.

• He is getting a guaranteed top 10 pick in the draft. This draft, as usual, is being touted as a deep year for new entrants in the NBA draft. In 9 days we find out what our draft slot is.
• With a bit of shit house luck he might get another crack at trading Kyle if he wants to. We might still get a younger player or two or maybe a player and low FRP but we will have to take back a bad contract. The price he pays for his indecision at last years trade deadline.
• He can if he wants trade high on one of our treasures OG or Fred and mix in a Boucher /Flynn sweetner if someone wants to dance and the return is better than what we have.