Everything 2021 Tank

[magoon]

Just out of curiosity...where does this number come from? I think it's closer to 28% (basically the same..but it looks worse)

Per NBA draft lottery rules, at the #7 slot, the Raptors have a

7.5% chance of getting the #1 pick
7.8% chance of getting #2
8.1% chance of getting #3
8.5% chance of getting #4

Add them up and you get 31.9%.

[Kagemusha]

A shooting guard who needs the ball to score and doesn't play defense? Hard pass. Green is the first-tier prospect I like least: I mean, as much as I dislike the idea of taking on a project like Kuminga, he's at least potentially multifaceted. You know who Green reminds me of? Dion Waiters. Because his statline is comparable to Dion Waiters' statline in his final year in college. (This is generally the point where people make noise about Green playing "against grown men" and, yeah, sure, he's mostly playing against guys who would be seniors in college if they hadn't declared for the draft and then washed out of the NBA.)

Do you wanna spend a top-five pick on Dion Waiters? Because I certainly don't.

Of course an SG (or any other player) would need the ball to score.
The Waiters comparison is so far off.
Jalen is the best athlete in this class.
His comparisons are a young Ray Allen and Lavine.

Most SGs don't play D.
But he averaged 3 steals in his first GLeague game.

[The Great One]

Are you talking Cade or Green.. I think they are both difference makers and both exactly the type of players we need lol.

Green.

[Demographic Shift]

Green or Cunningham.... Good lord I would love to read about that tong war over which one we pick if the first choice bounces the raptors way June 22 a short 6 weeks away.

Either way its Cohibas and Johnny Walker Blue all around...

[planetmars]

Per NBA draft lottery rules, at the #7 slot, the Raptors have a

7.5% chance of getting the #1 pick
7.8% chance of getting #2
8.1% chance of getting #3
8.5% chance of getting #4

Add them up and you get 31.9%.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Lays it out really well too.

[planetmars]

If we finish 7th.. we have a better shot at picking at 8 (34.1%) than at 7 (19.8%). That's pretty funny.

[golden]

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Lays it out really well too.

We are in the 7th slot right now, but interesting that we have a highest chance of moving down to the 8th slot. 34.1% (8th) vs. 19.8 (7th). That's a huge difference. That is one thing we all don't want to happen, but it's also a high probability..... moving down to 8th or lower, gulp. (48.3% chance).

[DanH]

If we finish 7th.. we have a better shot at picking at 8 (34.1%) than at 7 (19.8%). That's pretty funny.

That's true of most slots now, with the flatter lottery odds the chances of SOMEONE jumping up is pretty high.

[DanH]

We are in the 7th slot right now, but interesting that we have a highest chance of moving down to the 8th slot. 34.1% (8th) vs. 19.8 (7th). That's a huge difference. That is one thing we all don't want to happen, but it's also a high probability..... moving down to 8th or lower, gulp. (48.3% chance).

That's the tradeoff for having a fairly solid (32%) chance at jumping up the board. Comes along with a chance to slide back. The difference from 7-9 is not so great that I'd trade in the chance to jump into the top 4 for certainty sticking at 7.

[A.I]

We are in the 7th slot right now, but interesting that we have a highest chance of moving down to the 8th slot. 34.1% (8th) vs. 19.8 (7th). That's a huge difference. That is one thing we all don't want to happen, but it's also a high probability..... moving down to 8th or lower, gulp. (48.3% chance).

The probabilities are all over the place. You have more or less a similar chance of getting a top 4 pick or dropping down to 8th.

[planetmars]

We are in the 7th slot right now, but interesting that we have a highest chance of moving down to the 8th slot. 34.1% (8th) vs. 19.8 (7th). That's a huge difference. That is one thing we all don't want to happen, but it's also a high probability..... moving down to 8th or lower, gulp. (48.3% chance).

Yeah.. last year the Cavs (2 to 5), Hawks (4 to 6) , Pistons (5 to 7) and Knicks (6 to 8) all fell. Warriors also dropped from 1 to 2.

It's likely we'll see this happen again. Hopefully we move up. #7 has moved up 3 years in a row. Lucky #7!

[Jclaw]

Per NBA draft lottery rules, at the #7 slot, the Raptors have a

7.5% chance of getting the #1 pick
7.8% chance of getting #2
8.1% chance of getting #3
8.5% chance of getting #4

Add them up and you get 31.9%.

That might be the problem. I don't think you can add percentages like that. Let's you had a 1 in 52 chance of pulling an ace of diamonds from a pack of cards. If you picked a card 52 times (out of a new deck each time) your odds would be 100% but that's not what happens in reality as you may very well never pick that ace. The more times you do it, the more you increase your overall odds of getting it once but it's not additive. (btw...thanks google)

[Jclaw]

Yeah.. last year the Cavs (2 to 5), Hawks (4 to 6) , Pistons (5 to 7) and Knicks (6 to 8) all fell. Warriors also dropped from 1 to 2.

It's likely we'll see this happen again. Hopefully we move up. #7 has moved up 3 years in a row. Lucky #7!

it's been mentioned before but Lucky #7 might be a nice symbol of KLOE's farewell year (whenever it is). Or, in another direction, the guy the last time we had the #1 pick

[DanH]

That might be the problem. I don't think you can add percentages like that. Let's you had a 1 in 52 chance of pulling an ace of diamonds from a pack of cards. If you picked a card 52 times (out of a new deck each time) your odds would be 100% but that's not what happens in reality as you may very well never pick that ace. The more times you do it, the more you increase your overall odds of getting it once but it's not additive. (btw...thanks google)

Those chances already have those effects in place. Technically the lotto combinations to get each of the top 4 picks are the same - 7.5%. But since a team is removed from the running with each selection, the odds increase for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th picks. The odds quoted by sites like tankathon include all the variations - so 7.5% of the time, the 1st slot team gets the 1st pick, and in that case how are your odds impacted for the 2nd pick, and 7.5% of the time the second slot team gets it, and in that case how are your odds effected, and so on and so on and so on, and they average out all those cases and find your overall probability for each pick.

[planetmars]