Game 51 - LA Lakers @ Toronto (Tampa) Raptors - Tuesday, April 6 @ 7:30PM EST

[golden]

i'm looking at the on-off (net) +/- per 100. pascal was at +8.7 last night when i looked at it. he's now at +9.5 after last night's game. his on-court +/- per 100 is +3.9, so the team is 5.6 points per 100 worse when he sits.

yes everybody got a bump after the warriors game (except stanley johnson lol), but it's been climbing all season. it was quite negative early in the season when a lot of his minutes were tethered to baynes.

On/off is a tricky stat to use and draw conclusions from. It is dependent on who the "on" guy is, when you are "off" the court + lineup combinations. Also depends on who you are playing with. Like the one year Patrick Patterson was an on/off superstar, because he played most of his minutes with Lowry, and guy he was replacing most of the time was washed Luis Scola. The way our roster is structured, that would definitely seem to favor anybody who plays with the starters.

That said, we do have 4 "mostly bench" players who have a positive on/off net rating this year: Boucher, Bembry, Yuta and, surprise.... Terence Davis. Yuta was negative, up until the last 3 games, I believe. Looks like he's recovering from the Anthony Edwards dunk of death. lol.

[The Claw Reborn]

I think COVID and Tampa has something to do with the regression. Look at Boston for example. Tatum is +5.9 this year (down from +11.1 last year). Jalen Brown is -0.5. So he's actually been a net negative for them this year. Although he was -0.8 last year too. So maybe Jalen Brown just isn't that great.

It would be interesting how they both respond when it matters most. Still I will not count them out especially when they are healthy including Marcus Smart and Kemba. If they start their first round against a team that they have a better match up which we all know, that is always the case in the post season, a better draw every round increases the chances to win a round. That said, I am not implying that they can win it all.

One mistake on Ainge is that...he seem emotionally attached to one of his stars because he has assets and chances to let go one of them to acquire a superstar (Kawhi) but did not. Thank god.

In Masai/ Bobby we trust.

[planetmars]

It would be interesting how they both respond when it matters most. Still I will not count them out especially when they are healthy including Marcus Smart and Kemba. If they start their first round against a team that they have a better match up which we all know, that is always the case in the post season, a better draw every round increases the chances to win a round. That said, I am not implying that they can win it all.

One mistake on Ainge is that...he seem emotionally attached to one of his stars because he has assets and chances to let go one of them to acquire a superstar (Kawhi) but did not. Thank god.

In Masai/ Bobby we trust.

I mean they are healthy now, and pretty much got blown out by Philly last night. Boston isn't good.. but this season is a write off for most teams. This COVID season is not a good way to judge a team. It's a one off that will be course corrected next season when arena's are open again with full crowds.

Boston will likely be in the play-in tourney.. and may not even make the playoffs if the ball bounces incorrectly for them. If they do get into the playoffs they will be facing either Brooklyn or Philly in the first round.

[The Claw Reborn]

see response to golden above. i have no idea what you’re talking about with horses but i don’t have the time nor inclination for a back and forth this morning.

i know how to navigate basketball reference thanks. i’m looking at the net column, not on court. yes both pascal and fred’s on-court +/- per 100 has dropped from last year. last year the team went 53-19 with a net rating of +6.1, this year they are 20-31 with a net rating of +0.4. do you need me to draw you a map of why their on court ratings might be down this year?

both their net +/-’s are way up from last year, which just speaks to how much worse the team is around them. they’ve been bright spots on a bad team this year and pinning everything on them is dumb.

Thanks for admitting that.

But it is also dumb to just say that APM is solely because of the player’s teammates. Both their roles have increased, the coaching scheme has not change nor certain matchups.

Both their regressions are directly correlated to their poor start.

[The Claw Reborn]

I mean they are healthy now, and pretty much got blown out by Philly last night. Boston isn't good.. but this season is a write off for most teams. This COVID season is not a good way to judge a team. It's a one off that will be course corrected next season when arena's are open again with full crowds.

Boston will likely be in the play-in tourney.. and may not even make the playoffs if the ball bounces incorrectly for them. If they do get into the playoffs they will be facing either Brooklyn or Philly in the first round.

Obviously Brooklyn are way better because of the boost of talent.

But Maybe the Sixers and Bucks with their core are historically are just better regular season teams and Miami and Boston are just waiting for the right opportunity. We will see.

Bottomline... BKN and one of LA teams will probably represent their respective conferences...COVID or no COVID, with fans or no fans.

[The Claw Reborn]

Last night was the 2013 version of Gasol....

did you know that Marc’s WS in 2013 was 11.5, Conley was 9.9 and Zach was 7.9

those trio were so good but the Spurs match up in the playoffs during the 2012-2013 post season was hard to overcome, they got swept in the finals.

Though Grizz was so dominant vs the Clips in the first round and Thunder in the 2nd. Unfortunate for them to hit the brick Alamo Wallz

Btw Rudy was 4.0 lol....mediocre at best.

[The Claw Reborn]

At that time Gasol was around 27-28, Conley was a bit younger at 25-26 and Zach was 30-31. All three putting up great numbers and were impactful.

Those three were also underpaid:
Marc - 13-15m
Conley - 7-8m
Zach - 16-18m

that was 7-8 years ago but damn what a great value from those 3.

Mortal enemy for them then were the Spurs

Marc fortunate he got his ring with the Raptors

[marvulous]

Raps need to tank hard. Let Flynn, Trent, and OG develop the rest of this season and focus on the draft. The real season to start trying again will be 2022-2023. Covid (and a lack of a centre) killed the Rap's momentum and we have never been able to recover since. Trade Lowry in the off season and rebuild. If there was a season to tank it is this year with low viewership, no ticket/concession sales, etc.

[planetmars]

At that time Gasol was around 27-28, Conley was a bit younger at 25-26 and Zach was 30-31. All three putting up great numbers and were impactful.

Those three were also underpaid:
Marc - 13-15m
Conley - 7-8m
Zach - 16-18m

that was 7-8 years ago but damn what a great value from those 3.

Mortal enemy for them then were the Spurs

Marc fortunate he got his ring with the Raptors

Not sure about underpaid.. the cap was at $58M back then.. so Zach was like making 29-30% of the cap (same as Siakam is). Marc was making around 26% (Fred's making 19%). Rudy Gay was making around $16M as well (27% of the cap) before getting traded to Toronto.

It's team building. Your best 3 or 4 players (ie, your core) will make a big chunk of the cap.

[Dvdvideo]

OK I want to put on my rose coloured glassed and say OG was all innocent but the camera don't lie. He knew what he was doing, lifted him up and flipped him on purpose and deserved a flagrant 1, but not an ejection. The only person who saw it any other way was Matt Devlin (until he saw the other angle of the video a minute later) and you

I dont know, I just watched it again, he may have just been trying to get him off, when he realized his leg lifted to the point that he was falling, you can see him reach out and try and catch him......if he was just trying to throw him, you don't do that.
He also doesn't look mad at all.

[G__Deane]

I dont know, I just watched it again, he may have just been trying to get him off, when he realized his leg lifted to the point that he was falling, you can see him reach out and try and catch him......if he was just trying to throw him, you don't do that.
He also doesn't look mad at all.

OG thought he was being grabbed first after he'd already been held down on the dunk attempt. where he got in trouble was when he used his second hand to life up. I repeat, he knew exactly what he was doing and it was unfortunately, obvious from the one angle.

He doesn't look mad at all? From the guy who's shown emotion in the NBA exactly once?

[The Claw Reborn]

Not sure about underpaid.. the cap was at $58M back then.. so Zach was like making 29-30% of the cap (same as Siakam is). Marc was making around 26% (Fred's making 19%). Rudy Gay was making around $16M as well (27% of the cap) before getting traded to Toronto.

It's team building. Your best 3 or 4 players (ie, your core) will make a big chunk of the cap.

Agree...Definitely different time (that was just 8 years ago, damn we are old ) and different economic/ market atmosphere back then.

Some of the downside of having a salary cap especially back then when players are underpaid commensurate to their performance. The trio of Gasol/ Conley and Zach did not get what they deserved.

If you fast forward to the time during their respective free agency (Van Vleet and Siakam) and after exceptional ECF and Finals Championship performances by both, you would have expected a massive payment more than what they had gotten without a cap.

Imagine the previous greats born later in this century.

MLB having no salary cap has the “competitive balance tax” so high enough to level the spending a team can spend on their roster. To me eliminating mediocre players to get overpaid

[chris]

On/off is a tricky stat to use and draw conclusions from. It is dependent on who the "on" guy is, when you are "off" the court + lineup combinations. Also depends on who you are playing with. Like the one year Patrick Patterson was an on/off superstar, because he played most of his minutes with Lowry, and guy he was replacing most of the time was washed Luis Scola. The way our roster is structured, that would definitely seem to favor anybody who plays with the starters.

That said, we do have 4 "mostly bench" players who have a positive on/off net rating this year: Boucher, Bembry, Yuta and, surprise.... Terence Davis. Yuta was negative, up until the last 3 games, I believe. Looks like he's recovering from the Anthony Edwards dunk of death. lol.

i mean i think most stats require some consideration of the context to derive any meaning from them, but i think net +/- is quite a bit more instructive towards a players impact than regular +/- because it considers the team performance when that player is both on and off the court. regular +/- is more a reflection of overall team performance (ie. a heavy minutes player on a good team will be quite positive, a heavy minutes player on a bad team will be quite negative). but yeah, of course it's lineup influenced.

most of our "core" players have pretty good net and regular +/-'s actually, which in my mind just reinforces what some posters around here already believe: those players are still pretty good, but the team is paper thin. lowry and norm are exceptions, but obviously playing a ton of minutes while the best players were out with covid impacted those numbers because we lost those games, often quite handily (though i do think lowry has fallen off a bit). conversely, FVV, siakam, and OG are probably propped up to a certain degree by the success the team had before they got covid. i still think that stretch is closer to what this team actually is during this clusterfuck of a year so those numbers adequately reflect their impact.

[DanH]

This is why we have advanced impact stats. To at least attempt to wash out the context in on/off splits (though it's always worth looking at those too).

Raps this year, by EPM (a decent approximation of what PIPM did last year):
FVV +4
Boucher +2.7
OG +2.4
Siakam +1.5
Lowry +0.8
Norm +0.7
Trent -0.5
Baynes -1.1
Davis -2.5
Bembry -2.5
Watanabe -2.6
PWJ -3.1
Stan -3.8
Flynn -4.2
Hood -4.9
Thomas -5.9

For the record, Pascal's +1.5 is about 80th percentile for the league. With his heavy minutes played, he's around 90th percentile for wins generated. Still lower than you'd typically expect.

By RPM (ESPN's less solid attempt):
FVV +4.3
Lowry +3.4
Boucher +1.9
Siakam +1.9
OG +0.9

And... I'm getting lazy.

RAPTOR (538):
FVV +6
Boucher +2.6
OG +2.4
Lowry +0.8
Siakam +0.6

LEBRON (bball-index):
FVV +3.2
Siakam +2.2
Boucher +1.6
Lowry +0.5
OG +0.4

[golden]

This is why we have advanced impact stats. To at least attempt to wash out the context in on/off splits (though it's always worth looking at those too).

Raps this year, by EPM (a decent approximation of what PIPM did last year):
FVV +4
Boucher +2.7
OG +2.4
Siakam +1.5
Lowry +0.8
Norm +0.7
Trent -0.5
Baynes -1.1
Davis -2.5
Bembry -2.5
Watanabe -2.6
PWJ -3.1
Stan -3.8
Flynn -4.2
Hood -4.9
Thomas -5.9

For the record, Pascal's +1.5 is about 80th percentile for the league. With his heavy minutes played, he's around 90th percentile for wins generated. Still lower than you'd typically expect.

By RPM (ESPN's less solid attempt):
FVV +4.3
Lowry +3.4
Boucher +1.9
Siakam +1.9
OG +0.9

And... I'm getting lazy.

RAPTOR (538):
FVV +6
Boucher +2.6
OG +2.4
Lowry +0.8
Siakam +0.6

LEBRON (bball-index):
FVV +3.2
Siakam +2.2
Boucher +1.6
Lowry +0.5
OG +0.4

So, one could argue that Boucher is our second most impactful player (in context of his role) and clearly more impactful than OG.